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Brexit

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louth_in_the_south
January 16, 2019, 9:19am Report to Moderator

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All we got from the politicians from both parties and the media before the referendum was that there would be mass unemployment and recession. Didn’t happen. The opposite actually. So why believe them now and throw the democratic vote in the bin ?


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Maringer
January 16, 2019, 9:24am Report to Moderator
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Hard Brexit would almost certainly lead to a recession and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs (at least). You don't chaotically leave the world's largest and most successful trading bloc (to which your economy has been closely integrated for decades) without as serious impact. If we were to leave completely and the government had spent the past couple of years planning for it and mitigating for the problems we would encounter, you could water down some of the impact, but we haven't. HMRC is already chronically underfunded and understaffed and, with almost no planning, there is no way they can cope with a hard exit. We import most of our food, let's not forget, so it wouldn't take more than a few delays at the major ports for supplies to start running low.

Ignoring the idiotic 'Project Fear' forecasts from Osborne when he was Chancellor (which made as little sense as his other forecasts), you'll not find a reputable economist who thinks that anything other than serious impacts are likely to occur if we have a hard Brexit.

I'm amazed how many people seem to be thinking 'get on with it', even if they originally voted remain. If we're going to leave, let's make sure it's in an orderly manner so it causes as little damage as possible. If this means kicking the can down the road for another 6 months or a year, so be it.
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ginnywings
January 16, 2019, 9:51am Report to Moderator

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The thing is, we are the 5th richest nation on earth and the richest in Europe. There never was a problem with trade and economic prosperity to start with. There was only ever a problem with wealth distribution, and the w@ankers who really run the country weren't happy with taking almost everything, they wanted it all, so they introduce austerity measures and those on the bones of their @rse believed the lying fookers when they told them it was all the fault of the immigrants and the Brussels bureaucrats. That was after blaming the Labour party became a bit thin as an excuse. It's not our fault we are stinking rich and you are dirt poor, it's all Johnny Foreigner's fault.

What an absolute fooking shambles and the people fell for it. Once we are out and they can ride rough shod over workers rights and abolish the work time directive, with no one to stop them, then i expect the poor sods will get even poorer, while the likes of the smarmy Gove, Johnson and Rees Mogg et al will be laughing all the way to the bank.

If we are to leave, then to just say fook it, let's get on with it, will be an even bigger mistake than the decision to leave was in the first place.
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grimsby pete
January 16, 2019, 10:31am Report to Moderator

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I think we will come to an agreement that not only pleases all parties and all four nations of the UK,

BUT

This will not happen until after we move into our new stadium at PP.


                           Over 32 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
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forza ivano
January 16, 2019, 10:55am Report to Moderator

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my hope is that the 'sensible-heads' as i call them (Stella Creasey,Chuka Ummuna, Damian Green, Dominic Grieve, Nick,Boles, Nicky Morgan, Stephen Kinnock, Hilary Benn etc) bypass the leaderships and get together to sort out a deal that can be passed by Parliament
The first thing to happen is they've got to start ignoring the DUP (10 MPs) and the Brexiteers (c100 MPs) as this minority has been the tail wagging the parliamentary dog and their ideas command nil support elsewhere in Parliament. We will get a better idea of what is possible if the series of indicative votes (which need to be free votes) take place.
My best guess is that a Norway type deal has the best chance of getting accepted by the 330 needed. You are a long way to that total if the vast majority of labour went with that, plus the 50 MPs from the other opposition parties.
yes there would be howls of dismay, but we have got to get something through, and if this is the only thing that flies, then so be it.
Don't forget that any future government could change the arrangement if it wasn't working or if there was a popular 'uprising' against it.
i hope that may and Corbyn both become increasingly sidelined as neither of them seem to be living in the real world at present
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ska face
January 16, 2019, 11:15am Report to Moderator

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It’s worrying that people see neoliberal millionaires like Ummuna and warmongers like Benn as “sensible”. Their brand of politics is dead - dead in the U.K and dead across Europe purely because their business as usual approach has put people in the position we’re in currently - massive disparities in wealth, migrant crises caused by western “intervention” in Africa and the Middle East and facing climate extinction. These people do not want a socialist govt as the gravy train stops when people start to address the root cause of many problems in society and they might have to do some actual work. They’ve been sticking the knife into their own party leadership daily for 3 years, 2 failed coups, constant undermining, briefing against the party and ultimately ignoring the membership which decides Labour policy. Not Corbyn, not Momentum, not shady billionaire donors - the members.

People are sick of the status quo and these people personify it.
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Maringer
January 16, 2019, 11:29am Report to Moderator
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I personally think Corbyn is just treading water, hoping the Tories implode completely before he has to take an active stance on anything concrete. The problem is that Labour Party members and many of their voters want different things. The Party members overwhelmingly want a second referendum whereas many of their traditional voters who aren't members voted leave (even if it was directly against their best interests) and nobody really knows how they would go if a second referendum was called.

Here's a pretty long run-down of some of the issues which the Labour leadership are obviously worried about:

https://statsforlefties.blogspot.com/2018/11/do-i-stay-or-do-i-go-labours-brexit.html

Basically, to break it down, lots of constituencies which they must win to have a chance of forming a government voted Leave quite strongly. The electoral calculus is very difficult to work out - how many Tory remainers would never vote for a Labour government? Probably quite a few, even if it led to a catastrophic hard Brexit. How many Labour leavers would vote Tory (or more likely A.N. Other) if Labour backed a second referendum? Who really knows?

I think that the Labour leadership are hoping that May & Co continue to make such a balls-up of things that a General Election is forced to give them a chance of power. Then, after failing to negotiate a substantive change to May's deal (it really is the only possible 'deal' due to the Good Friday agreement, an international treaty which means that Northern Ireland must really remain in the single market), they would regretfully go for a second referendum which would then almost certainly go remain. I say almost certainly because lots of leavers have died since 2016 and lots of potential remain voters have come of voting age.

I can't say I'm a great fan of Corbyn's stance because it's just based on a gamble that things will turn out as hoped rather than taking the bull by the horns and trying to direct the process. We know he's a Eurosceptic himself (even though the claims that the EU rules on state aid would make much of the Labour manifesto untenable just aren't true), but better to be brave than quiet - not that he's likely to get a fair hearing in the media either way.

Oddly enough, whatever the result at the end of this whole debacle, it may be that both the Conservative and Labour parties are destroyed by the process. If so, it would be nice if we could somehow introduce a grown-up electoral system with proportional representation to ensure that votes counted for a lot more.
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forza ivano
January 16, 2019, 11:56am Report to Moderator

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Quoted from ska face
It’s worrying that people see neoliberal millionaires like Ummuna and warmongers like Benn as “sensible”. Their brand of politics is dead - dead in the U.K and dead across Europe purely because their business as usual approach has put people in the position we’re in currently - massive disparities in wealth, migrant crises caused by western “intervention” in Africa and the Middle East and facing climate extinction. These people do not want a socialist govt as the gravy train stops when people start to address the root cause of many problems in society and they might have to do some actual work. They’ve been sticking the knife into their own party leadership daily for 3 years, 2 failed coups, constant undermining, briefing against the party and ultimately ignoring the membership which decides Labour policy. Not Corbyn, not Momentum, not shady billionaire donors - the members.

People are sick of the status quo and these people personify it.


you may well be right Grant, but that ain't the issue here. We've got to get something through and i think they probably have the best chance of taking control of the situation.

Don't agree with everything you say Maringer, but i agree that  the central conundrum for Labour is stark and electorally is possibly more worrying than the Tories situation. There's no way an Election is happening any time soon - the vote tonight will show you that.as i said Turkeys don't vote for Xmas.
incidentally a Norway deal does satisfy the border issue, its just that people will be howling over freedom of movement etc, but even within existing EU rules there are ways of restricting uncontrolled immigration, a point that no UK government took up and a fact that was conveniently forgotten
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louth_in_the_south
January 16, 2019, 12:56pm Report to Moderator

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Maringer — why do you almost certainly believe hundreds of 1000s of jobs would go ? What industries in the Uk would be hardest hit ? I want some answers because I don’t get any from our politicians on the left , right or middle !!


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forza ivano
January 16, 2019, 1:30pm Report to Moderator

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without spiking maringer's guns id say the job losses would be widespread through all sectors. the transfer of financial services jobs to Europe and the problems the car industry would face have been widely covered. Tariffs on imported goods would lead to higher prices and less household spending so the retail sector would be quickly affected. Tariffs on exports would lead to our goods becoming too expensive for foreign customers to buy (although the expected collapse in the exchange rate may mitigate that). There would be an almost immediate cessation of new investment - who's going to spend money on new technology/facilities or simple expansion when the country is grinding to a halt? Companies are going to look to cut costs immediately so temps and zero hours staff would feel it immediately. Agriculture would be badly hit, bizarre to think that so many farmers are enthusiastic brexiteers.
there are so many implications - the whole thing is like peeling an onion, you just discover layer after layer of reprecussions. the exchange rate collapses so the EU workers on who we rely find its not worth staying here; not when they can move to Europe and get similar jobs, be closer to home and earn much more (its already happening in the building industry). What happens then to our care sector, our builders and to the hospitality and warehousing industries?

not a prospect i'd like to experience!

the only minor silver lining for no deal would be that it'd certainly sort out the brexit question once and for all. If after a couple of years of doom and chaos it looks like we're surviving and starting to move forward, then Johnson et al have been proved right and everythings hunky dory. if its a complete disaster then the Brexiteers and Little Englanders might finally shut up and a new government would take us back into Europe to try and make up the lost years
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