Financial Services for one is likely to take a massive hit. We've already seen £800 billion of assets moving to the EU27 along with a good number of very lucrative (and therefore tax generative) roles. Without the free movement of goods, we would also see a significant hit to our manufacturing sector as there would be a significant disruption to many supply chains. There would be a number of companies that couldn't cope with the disruption. Other multinationals could and would have to rethink their business model and potentially move production elsewhere.
With these businesses gone or diminished there would also be a knock on effect to the local social eco systems and communities who support those businesses and their workers.
A pretty bleak outlook. I heard an interesting report this morning that said Germany exports in the region of £39B worth of automotive parts a year . Of that I’m not sure comes here but I’d say a large % based on the number of car manufacturers here . Based on that would you think they would be likely to lobby for high import/export tariffs if they would then hammer the German economy. Just one example but if we consider the fact is replicated throughout different industries as the Uk is a very important market for Europe , would other European countries want to harm their own economies by imposing punitive tariffs. I’m not so sure .
A pretty bleak outlook. I heard an interesting report this morning that said Germany exports in the region of £39B worth of automotive parts a year . Of that I’m not sure comes here but I’d say a large % based on the number of car manufacturers here . Based on that would you think they would be likely to lobby for high import/export tariffs if they would then hammer the German economy. Just one example but if we consider the fact is replicated throughout different industries as the Uk is a very important market for Europe , would other European countries want to harm their own economies by imposing punitive tariffs. I’m not so sure .
It's true that the EU exports more to us than it imports from the UK, but there are 3 important facts to consider. about 45% of our exports go to the EU and over half of our imports come the other way whereas our 66 million people only represents 12% of the total EU population.this basically means that we need them more than they need us. they are jeopardising a market which represents 12% of the present internal market, but we are jeopardising half of all our exports and imports
I don't think it's the tariffs themselves that are the issue (as long as they're not set too high). The short term issues around customs checks etc are inevitably going to lead to delays. Depending on how long this disruption lasts, will determine how catastrophic the outcome will be. I for one don't have any confidence in any of our political parties to resolve these issues in a timely fashion.
Financial services is a separate issue. The EU27 are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of London taking a hit and them being the destination for funds and jobs. Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland and France have already been significant beneficiaries but even Spain, Portugal and Belgium have seen business transferring to them.
Regarding job losses, they would come throughout all sectors, assuming a recession hits. Since 2008, we've had the weakest 'recovery' from a recession since the Napoleonic wars. It's a recovery without any real recovery. Unemployment 'only' rose by around 600,000 in the last recession but there are all sorts of problems with the jobs market these days - zero hours contracts and the like. I'd imagine another recession would lead to at least as many jobs lost but we're starting from a weaker base. Note that a hard Brexit is pretty much certain to lead to a further devaluation of the Pound so imports will become more expensive.
If we actually manufactured much stuff this wouldn't be a bad thingfor exports but we stopped all that manufacturing nonsense in the 1980s.
What some don't realise is that the main reason that the FTSE 100 is at such a high level (even with recent large falls) is that most of these companies have extensive overseas operations. With the devaluation of the pound after the referendum, their overseas profits are suddenly worth more in £. It's not an indication of a strong economy in the UK itself!
No existing EU member is going to be forced to join the Euro. In fact, with the way it is currently structured, you'd be crazy to join. You can't have a currency union without fiscal transfers between states (as they have in the US) because, if you do, the poorer areas lose out because their currency is overvalued and the wealthy areas benefit from an undervalued currency. The ECB (which is not the EU) has screwed over the likes of Greece and Spain, but will soon discover they can't do the same to Italy who are one of the largest economies in the world (not to mention the main EU manufacturing competitor to Germany). If they want to save the Euro, they will have to change policy. Note, however, that the EU and the Euro are not the same thing - we could quite happily have remained in the EU without ever joining the Euro.
As for your other points, we have the veto (until we leave), so can veto anything you say is going to happen:
Cancel the rebate? Nope, we'll veto that. Cancel the ability to veto? Nope, we'll veto that. Set up an EU army? Veto. In some states, an EU embassy would be a decent money saving ploy but I can't see it being favoured because of the 'soft power' having an embassy gives the UK in many countries. The availability of a diplomatic presence provides back channels to resolve issues and attempt to influence policy. Not to mention, where else would our spooks operate from if we lost the embassies!
Most of your anti-EU arguments are against an EU which doesn't exist at present and couldn't exist if we remained a member and didn't vote for the changes to enable them.
If you want to leave the EU to regain complete sovereignty, then fair enough, that's a reasonable argument. You just have be honest enough to accept that it will mean we are a lot poorer because of it in the future. East European countries are clamouring to join the world's largest, wealthiest and most successful trading bloc. There's a good reason for that.
Of course they are, because they will know they will be better off because they will likely end up as net receivers of cash from the EU.
Interesting points, how would staying in the EU effect our debt with the EU plans of 2020
1. All EU countries to adopt the Euro - Valdes Dombrovskis, EU Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue, told France 24 that all member states of the European Union have to join the Eurozone eventually. He said: “That's the ultimate goal. If you look at the Treaty, all member states excluding Denmark are actually obliged to join the Euro. When the UK joined the EU it didn't say never, the same as 5 other countries https://www.telegraph.co.uk/fi.....-adopt-the-euro.html
2. No rebate - The EU’s Budget Commissioner has confirmed that Britain would lose its budget rebate in the highly unlikely scenario that the UK stays in the EU. Gunther Oettinger made it clear that the UK would not keep the “mother of all rebates” if it held a second referendum and decided to stay in the EU: Last time, as part of the 2014-2020 budget negotiations but the mechanisms being put in place will mean the rebate will be dropped
3. No veto on anything including the money demanded from each member state - 12 September 2018 in his annual state of the union address, Jean Claude Juncker said there is a proposal to abolish EU member countries' vetoes on certain tax and foreign policy issues.
4. Contributions and control of our Forces to the EU Army that some people claimed would never be established. - PESCO The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) is the part of the European Union's (EU) security and defence policy (CSDP) in which 25 of the 28 national armed forces pursue structural integration. Based on Article 42.6 and Protocol 10 of the Treaty on European Union, introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009, PESCO was first initiated in 2017. The initial integration within the PESCO format is a number of projects planned to launch in 2018, have you heard of mission creep, you'll understand where things go when Military's get involved
5. Loss of embassies around the world as they are replaced by an EU one and EU foreign policy - More than 50 European Union embassies have opened across the world since the Lisbon Treaty came into force, Mats Persson, director of the Open Europe think tank, said the new EU embassies would, for "all practical purposes", take over the job of representing Britons on the world stage. "Common EU embassies means that Britain can be overruled on crucial diplomatic matters, such as on how to respond to human rights abuses in a conflict-ridden country,"
It is all encapsulated in the Lisbon Treaty - A more Federal EU with less sovereignty and more power transferred to the EU, basically you'll do what the un-elected bureaucrats decide is right for us, and it'll cost far more than we would ever stand to lose under a hard Brexit
We were warned of the EU plans for an EU army it is now happening, we were warned about EU embassys there are over 50 now. We were warned that the EU is becoming more and more federal and we are seeing more and more power transferred to the EU as countries become less sovereign.
Scary excrement indeed, is a Federal EU good for Britain. Especially when you have the likes of Verhofstadt and Juncker at the driving wheel
Veto you say
Would that be the same Lisbon Treaty that Gordon Brown said we would have a referendum on?
Leaving the EU is like voluntarily relegating yourself from the Premier League. I don't think I'll ever understand why so many people want to take such a gamble with our future.
'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
1. All EU countries to adopt the Euro - Valdes Dombrovskis, EU Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue, told France 24 that all member states of the European Union have to join the Eurozone eventually. He said: “That's the ultimate goal. If you look at the Treaty, all member states excluding Denmark are actually obliged to join the Euro. When the UK joined the EU it didn't say never, the same as 5 other countries https://www.telegraph.co.uk/fi.....-adopt-the-euro.html
2. No rebate - The EU’s Budget Commissioner has confirmed that Britain would lose its budget rebate in the highly unlikely scenario that the UK stays in the EU. Gunther Oettinger made it clear that the UK would not keep the “mother of all rebates” if it held a second referendum and decided to stay in the EU: Last time, as part of the 2014-2020 budget negotiations but the mechanisms being put in place will mean the rebate will be dropped
3. No veto on anything including the money demanded from each member state - 12 September 2018 in his annual state of the union address, Jean Claude Juncker said there is a proposal to abolish EU member countries' vetoes on certain tax and foreign policy issues.
4. Contributions and control of our Forces to the EU Army that some people claimed would never be established. - PESCO The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) is the part of the European Union's (EU) security and defence policy (CSDP) in which 25 of the 28 national armed forces pursue structural integration. Based on Article 42.6 and Protocol 10 of the Treaty on European Union, introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009, PESCO was first initiated in 2017. The initial integration within the PESCO format is a number of projects planned to launch in 2018, have you heard of mission creep, you'll understand where things go when Military's get involved
5. Loss of embassies around the world as they are replaced by an EU one and EU foreign policy - More than 50 European Union embassies have opened across the world since the Lisbon Treaty came into force, Mats Persson, director of the Open Europe think tank, said the new EU embassies would, for "all practical purposes", take over the job of representing Britons on the world stage. "Common EU embassies means that Britain can be overruled on crucial diplomatic matters, such as on how to respond to human rights abuses in a conflict-ridden country,"
It is all encapsulated in the Lisbon Treaty - A more Federal EU with less sovereignty and more power transferred to the EU, basically you'll do what the un-elected bureaucrats decide is right for us, and it'll cost far more than we would ever stand to lose under a hard Brexit
We were warned of the EU plans for an EU army it is now happening, we were warned about EU embassys there are over 50 now. We were warned that the EU is becoming more and more federal and we are seeing more and more power transferred to the EU as countries become less sovereign.
Scary excrement indeed, is a Federal EU good for Britain. Especially when you have the likes of Verhofstadt and Juncker at the driving wheel
1. There is no evidence we would be forced to join the Euro. Yes, obvioulsy, the EU wanted each member state to do so but just because we "never said never" does not equate to we have to adopt the Euro.
2. There was talk about if the UK extended the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020 we would lose the rebate.That is because the UK is required to contribute to EU coffers during the transition period, but by 2021 Brussels is expected to have revised its budget without the UK. You obviously think we should still get our rebate even if we are not part of the EU? If the UK remains in the EU the rebate would still stand.
3. It's a proposal, that is all it is. The proposal would need to get past the European Parliament and European Council, where it is expected to face much opposition. You would be asking countries to give up their tax control, something they are very unlikely to vote for.
4. All this scaremongering of an EU Army. It is a sensible step given how the US decided no longer to heavily fund NATO or pull out altogether, along with Trump declaring the EU an enemy. With the aggression of Russia over the past few years, I would say they would be fools not to take their own steps to protecting themselves.
5. More scaremongering. Yes the EU have opened some embassies but not at the expense of any national embassies.
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