Ukraine War

Quoted from Poojah

The west standing up with force now is a very effective way of accelerating an escalation to full blown war with nuclear weapons. I don’t think it’s melodramatic to suggest that the first NATO or US shell fired in the direction of Russian forces (or vice versa) triggers a war that few in the developed world will survive.

It’s that precarious.

But then the west doing nothing is an open invitation to more aggression. I agree it would lead to massive escalation in my post. And thats why it is easy for me to say on a forum for Grimsby Town fans but very different in real life.

My thinking is mainly driven by the fact that the cost of doing nothing is still a cost and that if he can invade some states with impunity, what stops him again and again.

My fear is either way that we are on the road to a third World War. Either act now early with costs associated with that or don't and deal with increasing costs in the future.

But as I say is easier for me to type but beyond scary and dangerous in reality particularly when as I think you point out, one policy leads to very likely escalation and conflict that could effectively destroy the world vs a policy that might not lead to one at all as my doomladen predictions could be very wide of the mark.

Anyone seen sleepy Joe?

Quoted from Caesar

But then the west doing nothing is an open invitation to more aggression. I agree it would lead to massive escalation in my post. And thats why it is easy for me to say on a forum for Grimsby Town fans but very different in real life.

My thinking is mainly driven by the fact that the cost of doing nothing is still a cost and that if he can invade some states with impunity, what stops him again and again.

My fear is either way that we are on the road to a third World War. Either act now early with costs associated with that or don't and deal with increasing costs in the future.

But as I say is easier for me to type but beyond scary and dangerous in reality particularly when as I think you point out, one policy leads to very likely escalation and conflict that could effectively destroy the world vs a policy that might not lead to one at all as my doomladen predictions could be very wide of the mark.

I think, in the context of nuclear armageddon, rising costs are small beer.

I dearly hope not but we may well be on the road to WW3; at the minute that sits in Putin’s court. A lot will depend on how far he’s prepared to go into Eastern Europe, but even if he intends to stop at Ukraine, the inevitable coming together of Russian and NATO troops on the Estonian and Latvian borders presents a potentially very volatile situation.

Quoted from Caesar

But then the west doing nothing is an open invitation to more aggression. I agree it would lead to massive escalation in my post. And thats why it is easy for me to say on a forum for Grimsby Town fans but very different in real life.

My thinking is mainly driven by the fact that the cost of doing nothing is still a cost and that if he can invade some states with impunity, what stops him again and again.

My fear is either way that we are on the road to a third World War. Either act now early with costs associated with that or don't and deal with increasing costs in the future.

But as I say is easier for me to type but beyond scary and dangerous in reality particularly when as I think you point out, one policy leads to very likely escalation and conflict that could effectively destroy the world vs a policy that might not lead to one at all as my doomladen predictions could be very wide of the mark.

Surely WW3 is unlikely.

It will either be nuclear armageddon or a proxy war between East and West in some poor b*stards back yard (Ukraine, Lithuania, BiH).

Quoted from Poojah

I think, in the context of nuclear armageddon, rising costs are small beer.

I dearly hope not but we may well be on the road to WW3; at the minute that sits in Putin’s court. A lot will depend on how far he’s prepared to go into Eastern Europe, but even if he intends to stop at Ukraine, the inevitable coming together of Russian and NATO troops on the Estonian and Latvian borders presents a potentially very volatile situation.

But there is also a potential that doing something now prevents apocalypse later as pressing any button is a huge step. Nuclear deterrents one would hope would be total last resort. May not happen now if troops are sent to support Ukraine as would be a high cost low benefit step. The likely all encompassing war could be catastrophic still im different ways. But if the stakes have been raised because we do nothing now......


My point is it is not like it is dangerous to act now is a sufficient argument. Doing nothing could be just as costly or moreso. Truthfully it is scarily high stakes and nobody knows for sure what is the best course of action.

Quoted from Knut Anders Fosters Voles

Surely WW3 is unlikely.

It will either be nuclear armageddon or a proxy war between East and West in some poor b*stards back yard (Ukraine, Lithuania, BiH).

Nukes I hope would only ever be used as weapons of last resort.

Agree proxy war seems most likely but so easy for that to escalate as an aggressive Russia tests Western resolve.

Three options really:

Best case scenario: new cold war with horrific economic implications and increased numbers of armed forces personnel and spending.

Mid: WWIII with use of conventional weapons resulting in huge loss of life, horrific economic implications.

Worst case: nuclear war. intercourse the economy in that instance.


If I wasn’t already listed and I was under forty, male and from an industry with a lot of older workers/retired workers who could come back I would definitely be getting my running shoes on for the next few weeks.

Quoted from LH

If I wasn’t already listed and I was under forty, male and from an industry with a lot of older workers/retired workers who could come back I would definitely be getting my running shoes on for the next few weeks.

This is not what I wanted to see in Ukraine. It didn’t have to end this way. Even days ago an agreement that Ukraine would never join NATO and the full implementation of the Minsk Agreement would have ended the crisis.

The FT’s (berated) call for this was right. Pumping Ukraine full of NATO weapons, mercenaries and propaganda was a grave mistake (and Russia inherits a billion dollars worth of weaponry). What was intended as a demonstration of NATO strength has ended with proof of its weakness.

The US empire is fading. The sun has risen in the east. Britain should fulfil its destiny as an independent country, free from the EU, and free from the USA.

George Galloway.

Quoted from Poojah

The west standing up with force now is a very effective way of accelerating an escalation to full blown war with nuclear weapons. I don’t think it’s melodramatic to suggest that the first NATO or US shell fired in the direction of Russian forces (or vice versa) triggers a war that few in the developed world will survive.

It’s that precarious.

But expansionist dictators can only be stopped by force. NATO has to respond now mobilising to reinforce all of NATO eastern Europe. It will cost us all a load of our taxes and the last thing we need after COVID but there is no choice. We need to force Russia into a Cold War they can't win. Russia spends 5% of GDP on military - more than any NATO country but their economy is tiny compared to the combined NATO economy. NATO can outspend them easily with some economic pain but with sanctions and the cost of occupation of Ukraine Russia can't win a Cold War. When the wall came down the Soviet `bloc was shown to be hollowed out economically and militarily and actually was posing much less of a conventional military threat than the west feared. The only strategy I can see is to hollow out Russia and hope that Putin is removed by his own people.