Covid vaccine

Out of all the people who needed hospital treatment due to covid in May - 99.9% of them had not been double vaccinated..

Whether you agree with it all or not, just have the jab, and crack on IMO.

Quoted from Jarmo.Is.God

Out of all the people who needed hospital treatment due to covid in May - 99.9% of them had not been double vaccinated..

Whether you agree with it all or not, just have the jab, and crack on IMO.

How many needed genuine hospital treatment?

Good article detailing SAGE's failure during the pandemeic.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/How-did-Sage-get-it-so
How did Sage get it so wrong?

Professor Neil Ferguson struck an unusually optimistic tone this week. With just one Covid death reported on Monday, and infection levels at an eight-month low in the UK, the architect of the original lockdown said: ‘The data is very encouraging and very much in line with what we expected.’ The first half of that statement is certainly true; the second half much less so.

As an unofficial member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (he resigned in an official capacity after breaking lockdown rules) Prof Ferguson has been responsible for much of the pessimistic modelling during the pandemic. For example, his team at Imperial College were predicting as late as 30 March that only 45 per cent of the population would be protected against severe disease by 21 June, even under ‘optimistic’ assumptions. In fact, hard evidence based on the Office of National Statistics measurement shows that 68 per cent of the population already had antibodies against Covid-19 by 7 April, which meant that either they had received at least one vaccination or they had recovered from Covid-19 (or indeed both). Whatever the case, they would certainly have a fair degree of immunity, and thus be protected from serious illness.


The growth in antibodies in England's population could be predicted using an uncomplicated computer model, so how did Imperial get it so wrong? The PCCF model I developed at the University of Bristol was able to match to within a percentage point the ONS figure on 7 April - and suggests that 74 per cent of the adult population had antibodies by 2 May. As you can see in the below graph, the PCCF antibodies predictor in red closely tracked the ONS upper and lower antibody ranges from last summer onwards. The chart shows that three quarters of England’s total population, including children, now have protection and, as a minimum, won’t suffer serious illness.


This figure is, of course, rising every day as more people are vaccinated - a process still proceeding apace.


Although Ferguson’s team at Imperial College has been notable for its pessimistic predictions, it has not been alone. One modelling study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which also contributed to Sage's interim roadmap assessment in advance of the next step out of lockdown, assumed that two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine would only give 31 per cent protection against infection and one dose just 72 per cent against dying from the disease. These are bewilderingly low figures, not only because of the much more encouraging field trial evidence that had been around for months, but also because a large-scale study on the ground found that a single dose of the AZ vaccine was 94 per cent effective in preventing hospitalisation in Scotland.

The R-number: Sage’s abysmal track record

A key component that has contributed to Sage's doomsday outlook is the R-number (the number of people the average person with Covid will pass the virus onto. Below one and the epidemic shrinks; above one and it grows). The R-number estimate released by Sage is decided through online debate amongst a group of academics from 11 institutions, each of whom argues for their particular figure. Eventually some sort of judgement call is made, and agreed upper and lower values are made public each week. This process, pursued throughout the pandemic, is not scientific and has produced answers of dubious worth.

There are two main problems with Sage’s working. First, their estimates are 18 days out of date when they arrive. Second, even then, they are inaccurate. The ONS figures, seen as the gold standard, are in red below: pretty far from the Sage range of estimates (in blue).


It's a terrible shame that, for the last year, the government has not been guided by the ONS-based estimate of the R-number. Besides being fully scientific, ONS-based estimates also reduce the measurement delay, since they are only nine days in arrears when they arrive, as opposed to being 18 days out of date, like Sage's numbers. How different things could have been if the ONS data had been more influential on the government’s thinking. This would have allowed people greater freedom and minimised disruption to the economy while still keeping the NHS well protected.

Fundamentally, Prof Ferguson and his team - and the other Sage modellers - have overcomplicated their modelling, which is inappropriate when the data we have on the virus is very limited, as it always will be with any new disease. The additional complexity of the Sage models might be academically satisfying and might, indeed, seem impressive to politicians. But it has not brought greater accuracy. At Bristol University, the PCCF model has also been used to forecast the R-number - and has come far closer to the ONS.


In 2002 in the aftermath of the mad cow disease fiasco (which Prof Ferguson and others suggested could kill millions). I provided evidence to parliament alongside my colleague Professor Martin Newby. We had been sceptical of the dire figures bandied around by Imperial, which led to the slaughter of 4.4 million cattle and the adoption of pointless countermeasures costing billions of pounds after the risk to humans, always very small, had become negligible. Our straight-forward modelling showed, correctly, that variant-Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (the human form) would result in a few hundred deaths at most. As part of our evidence, we said:

The government's continued inability to give proper consideration to the spectrum of scientific opinion has been very expensive and must be a cause for major concern. It is clear that those tasked with devising policy – ministers and civil servants – need to adopt a more critical attitude to the scientific advice they are offered, even when that advice comes from one of their advisory bodies.
It is a shame that 18 years on this recommendation has not been heeded. Focusing on the advice of a handful of particular scientists, who all broadly agreed with one another, has meant that the PM has received inaccurate estimates of the R-number throughout the pandemic, despite it being an easy figure to measure. As we move forward, having defeated this pandemic, it is vital that lessons are learnt for next time.

Philip Thomas is professor of risk management at the University of Bristol

It's an article from a lockdown-sceptic academic (not an epidemiologist) who is paid by a lockdown-sceptic magazine to write articles and who is personally at odds with the Imperial College modelling which is carried out by epidemiologists. Without further information or analysis, it's not possible to say whether his points have any merit (paywall at the Spectator, of course). From the headlines of the articles visible behind the Spectator paywall, it seems an earlier article from him in April was saying that we didn't need to worry about a third wave.

Well, we're entering the third wave right now as the number of infections show. Infections up around 50% over the past week. Thankfully, the vaccines have broken the direct link to hospitalisations and deaths but a link still remains. The SAGE modelling for the coming wave expects between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths, even with the delay in dropping restrictions until 19th July. We'll be on 50,000 infections a day by then, almost certainly if the figures continue at the current growth rate. I suppose the end of term might start to slow things down by then. Hopefully, not too many of the tens of thousands of children who will contract the virus before then will suffer from 'long covid'. If they start making sure masks are worn in schools as is required pretty much everywhere else in the world, we might be able to cut the number.

Too many idiots still bleating. Should just shut the intercourse up, take the vaccine, wear masks, follow advice and stop whinging about not being able to go abroad on holiday. Will they never learn that the sooner we all knuckle down the sooner we can beat this thing.

They’d rather believe claptrap put out by no marks (often with a financial interest in coming out with said claptrap) than proper scientists with relevant expertise.

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

My mother died in hospital, alone, during the first wave. No visitors were allowed. Maximum of 12 at the funeral. As she had 5 children, 13 grandchildren and 7 great grandchildren, 5 living siblings etc, there were many not able to pay their respects in person. We didn’t whinge about the restrictions. We just got on with things as best we could and followed the rules. It looks like one of her siblings won’t be around long enough to go to the memorial whenever we can hold it. It’s sad. It’s disappointing. But we just get on with it. My wife hasn’t been able to see her mother since before the first lockdown. She doesn’t whinge about restrictions on her liberty. She just gets on with things.

Time all the deniers and conspiracy nuts and backsliders just knuckled down and grew up.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Too many idiots still bleating. Should just shut the intercourse up, take the vaccine, wear masks, follow advice and stop whinging about not being able to go abroad on holiday. Will they never learn that the sooner we all knuckle down the sooner we can beat this thing.

They’d rather believe claptrap put out by no marks (often with a financial interest in coming out with said claptrap) than proper scientists with relevant expertise.

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

My mother died in hospital, alone, during the first wave. No visitors were allowed. Maximum of 12 at the funeral. As she had 5 children, 13 grandchildren and 7 great grandchildren, 5 living siblings etc, there were many not able to pay their respects in person. We didn’t whinge about the restrictions. We just got on with things as best we could and followed the rules. It looks like one of her siblings won’t be around long enough to go to the memorial whenever we can hold it. It’s sad. It’s disappointing. But we just get on with it. My wife hasn’t been able to see her mother since before the first lockdown. She doesn’t whinge about restrictions on her liberty. She just gets on with things.

Time all the deniers and conspiracy nuts and backsliders just knuckled down and grew up.

My condolences to you and all your family.

There are too many selfish people around who have no respect for the life of others around them. They understand that covid has no respect for any age group and kills, but don't care.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

In the last 18 months I’ve learned that Blitz spirit was a myth. I doubt people would have disco lights going off in their back garden during air raids but I bet they moaned like intercourse about the restrictions.

Quoted from Maringer

It's an article from a lockdown-sceptic academic (not an epidemiologist) who is paid by a lockdown-sceptic magazine to write articles and who is personally at odds with the Imperial College modelling which is carried out by epidemiologists. Without further information or analysis, it's not possible to say whether his points have any merit (paywall at the Spectator, of course). From the headlines of the articles visible behind the Spectator paywall, it seems an earlier article from him in April was saying that we didn't need to worry about a third wave.

Well, we're entering the third wave right now as the number of infections show. Infections up around 50% over the past week. Thankfully, the vaccines have broken the direct link to hospitalisations and deaths but a link still remains. The SAGE modelling for the coming wave expects between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths, even with the delay in dropping restrictions until 19th July. We'll be on 50,000 infections a day by then, almost certainly if the figures continue at the current growth rate. I suppose the end of term might start to slow things down by then. Hopefully, not too many of the tens of thousands of children who will contract the virus before then will suffer from 'long covid'. If they start making sure masks are worn in schools as is required pretty much everywhere else in the world, we might be able to cut the number.

I've edited the post with the actual article.

Have you compared his previous work based on ONS data and the actual outcome ?

Quoted from Maringer

Humbercod, it doesn't interest me that this former policeman now writes stories for a living. So does Dan Brown but I wouldn't go looking to him for scientific analysis. Regardless of how well he can write a story, the ex-copper doesn't appear to have any real understanding of science or statistical analysis. Much like yourself, in fact, as you still seem to be confusing deaths reported through the Yellow Card system as being undoubtedly caused directly by the vaccines. They are not. Let me repeat, the vast majority of the deaths you are talking about will have nothing at all to do with the vaccination.

If you look at a substantial proportion of the population (and the older and less well cohorts, especially), a great many otherwise healthy people each year simply drop dead at any given moment due to natural causes i.e. congenital problems, undiagnosed illnesses, strokes, heart attacks, etc. These natural deaths are just background 'noise' when looking for serious side effects from vaccines or other medical treatments and the Yellow Card system is specifically there to look for underlying actual side-effects. Such as the very rare blood clots with the adenovirus vector vaccines which we know about and emerging signs that the mRNA vaccines can, on extremely rare occasions cause (usually treatable) events of myocarditis in young adults.

I'm surprised that you should dismiss out of hand the study (not yet peer reviewed, obviously) comparing scans which apparently shows neurotropism caused by Covid. Here's a link to that preprint, by the way:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf

Note that the whole point of the UK Biobank project is, and I quote, "improving the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of a wide range of serious and life-threatening illnesses". This paper, seems to be an ideal use of the pre-Covid Biobank data and the findings seem pretty stark to me though, of course, we'll have to wait until it is peer reviewed before we can be absolutely sure. The authors are working for respected institutions, so safe to say it isn't a spurious paper aimed at gaining attention and funding, as so many are.

Have a quick skim through the paper and let me know your thoughts about it. You can just read the initial abstract. Ought to take you a few minutes. Take a look and have your say.

This is a novel coronavirus and we still don't know half of what it can do to some people despite the millions who have already died from it across the world and the millions still suffering the aftermath of the disease (around 1 million people with 'Long Covid' in the UK at present). The fact that we have vaccines which are still effective against the current variants is good news, but unless we can shut down transmission, it is only likely to be a matter of time before even more dangerous variants arrive. The absolute disinformation about the current vaccination programme from the conspiracy theorists out there is pretty shameful in my view.

My children are young enough that they'll not be getting any vaccine in the near future so that isn't a consideration at present. I am convinced that the mRNA vaccines are safe given that many hundreds of millions of doses have been given around the world and there have only been a vanishingly small number of problems reported. However, it wouldn't surprise me if young children ended up being given other vaccine types next year. We'll have to wait and see what happens in that regard.

Interesting you should lever 'Global warming' into the conversation for some unknown reason. We do have incontrovertible numerical evidence that warming is rapidly occurring and, heck, if you insist on relying on anecdote, just think back to all we've all seen over the past couple of decades. I do believe Anthropogenic Climate Change is occurring and the data is all on my side (not to mention the majority of scientists).

Putting that to one side, I'm rather baffled that you think there is no evidence that children are spreading the Delta variant in schools and then on into the community! Where are you getting your news from?

Here's the latest round of REACT-1 data:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/findings-from-covid-19-round-12-react-1-study-published

Here's a snippet from the report:



Here's PHE from 3rd June:

Tweet 1400437277189447683 will appear here...

Plenty of evidence out there for increasing numbers of outbreaks in schools to the extent I'm not going to bother doing your googling for you. Just have a quick search.

Latest Government data indicates Delta has a secondary attack rate around 41% higher than Alpha (discussion starts on page 26):

https://assets.publishing.serv.....ical_Briefing_15.pdf

With this in mind, of course children are catching and spreading the virus in schools and then taking it home!

The swine flu narcolepsy issues for one vaccine type were a sad situation. Thankfully, it doesn't appear that there is any similar signal with the mRNA vaccines that has appeared. Similarly, no evidence of ADE despite tens of thousands of confirmed reinfections which I'm sure you know. Luckily, work on SARS vaccine candidates showed the areas where ADE was most likely to occur and the development of the Covid-19 vaccines was carried out to avoid these.

The technology behind mRNA vaccines has been in development for decades so it's not such a big jump in reality, even if the timeline has been advanced by a few years due to the emergency of this pandemic. It's no coincidence that both Pfizer and Moderna were able to produce their mRNA vaccines pretty much at the same time. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that CureVac's mRNA vaccine is effective enough (reported 47% efficacy in their recently-announced trial results) and it remains to be seen if the Sanofi mRNA vaccine works well enough or if the Chinese one works as well.

It's a real shame that Novavax have encountered manufacturing issues as their recombinant protein vaccine is a more standard type and it also seems to be very effective. I'm sort of hoping that this is the one I'll be given as a booster this autumn, but I'll be happy to take whichever one I'm given. I'll be very confident that it is several orders of magnitude safer than actually catching Covid.

Sorry for the late reply needed some time away.
Firstly let’s clear up the yellow cards you just can’t brush under the carpet over a million adverse reactions and 1300+ Deaths by coincidence. These numbers are far greater than any previous vaccination program, less than 300 recorded deaths after taking the Flu vaccine since1963 for example, questions need to be asked not ignored. Maybe try using your logic against the 152000 Covid (cough) deaths.

I’ve read the brain shrinking report and it’s nothing more than scaremongering to get people taking the experimental gene therapy.
The researchers surprisingly did not rule out these subtle changes resulting from a loss of taste or smell, not the cause of it.
The following report comes from a scientific report on the Oxford findings-

Most people with COVID experience a temporary loss of smell, which is a fairly benign symptom. Loss of smell is probably caused by infection of non neuronal cells involved in smell, rather than direct injury to brain cells.
Also widespread structural changes in the brain following the loss of sense of smell have been documented before SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID, infected the first human. There is even a common inflammatory condition, called chronic rhinosinusitis that causes changes in grey matter that are HIGHLY reminiscent of the reported Oxford study.
Fortunately, sense of smell is regained by most COVID patients after a few months in which case alterations of the brain would be expected to be TEMPORARY.

Maybe wait until it’s at least Peer reviewed next time eh Maringer! And as for your Long Covid propaganda (you really surprise me) it’s just an added scare a new name for ‘post viral syndrome’ which is very common where 99%+ of all patients get better in time, patients with pneumonia for example are told up to 6 months before full recovery.
Some of the main symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, memory loss can also be attributed to lockdown induced social isolation, a recent trial reported fatigue 33% and headaches 34% despite not having been injected with the vaccine😀

It’s almost as if we have scientists on the government payroll trying to prove how serious Covid is to the young fit and healthy among us, I’m sure there’s a link here to climate change🤔

I don’t want to seem rude but don’t show my anymore government data because I don’t trust it, they can say children are super spreaders all they want to get them the vaccine, it doesn’t work on me. Here’s a tip when you’re doing your own research don’t just type in the google search and select the pages that google act offer, you need to delve a bit deeper matey.
I’ve found plenty of very credible data and studies that contradict just about everything the government (you weirdly trust) have to say.

Still to early to be talking about ADE that’s to come. Feeling really happy with my decision not to get injected but I will be sourcing and getting stocked up with ivermectin just as a precaution (don’t even begin bore me with the it’s only for animal nonsense). Interesting to also note a recent report from PHE concludes more people are dying of this more severe new delta variant after having the jabs than those without…. Good luck with your boosters.

First paragraph. You're wrong.

Second paragraph. Ignores the findings of the study and inserts a conspiracy about, "Experimental gene therapy". Both wrong and deluded.

Third paragraph. Irrelevant. A number of people have never recovered their sense of smell (to date). The exact mechanism remains to be discovered.

Fourth paragraph. Eh? Long Covid isn't propaganda as I know from a young family member who has been bedridden for months. Yes, it is obviously a type of post viral syndrome. We don't know much about these in other viruses, let alone this novel coronavirus which had never infected human beings until around 18 months ago.

Fifth paragraph. Climate change? You're just gibbering now.

Sixth paragraph. You have no idea what you're talking about. The data being released by the government shows that they are failing utterly so it's obviously not some sort of nonsense to try and scare people into submission. Government policy is clearly - and I mean, absolutely clearly - to aim for 'herd immunity' by vaccinating adults letting children catch it in schools. Why else remove the mask mandate in schools in mid-May when we knew a much more transmissible variant was spreading and why refuse to make any mitigations such as better ventilation and increased distancing when it is taking off so much? We're not going to have the doses available to vaccinate children for months and months, even if the mRNA vaccines were authorised so thinking there is some sort of psy-ops going on is idiotic. If you've got credible data and studies that contradict the government data, please post it and I'll be happy to take it to pieces. Note, the government are ignoring the data that Sage/PHE/ONS are releasing. Here's increasing prevalence in schools. Why aren't they insisting on masking once again?:



For reference, a whole year group at my wife's school in N.E. Lincs is being sent home to isolate due to the number of cases which have arisen. She taught one of those classes today, so we'll have to see if we're going to get it from that route. My son's primary school has just announced another case though not, apparently, in his class bubble.

There have been no indications of ADE and the vaccines were designed to try and avoid the risk of ADE. Not surprised you're on the Ivermectin bandwagon despite the lack of any reliable data pointing towards a benefit. Do be sure to wash it down with some hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Oh, and zinc! Don't forget the zinc! Might as well try some homeopathic remedies at the same time. Curcumin is popular amongst true believers as well, I understand.

Final paragraph. Well, surprise, surprise. You're wrong. A good few fully-vaccinated people are dying because, well, they are older and have a much greater risk of infection and serious illness from the virus. This is true whether or not they are vaccinated though, of course, those vaccinated will have much greater protection. The way that anti-vaxxers such as yourself don't seem to understand the fact that there is vaccine escape and fully-vaccinated people are dying shows a tragic lack of understanding of data. The vaccines are saving thousands of lives. Here's an easy to understand graphical representation of how this wave is differing to earlier waves of infection in terms of hospitalisations (and therefore deaths):



Infections are rocketing and will continue to rocket with the spread of Delta, tens and probably hundreds of thousands will develop 'Long Covid' symptoms of varying severity, tens of thousands more will die this year and yet fools such as yourself are still decrying the vaccines as some sort of an experimental government conspiracy. Utter madness. The government are flipping it up entirely yet again and it's no wonder they are getting away with it when people read ludicrous nonsense on facebook and think they know more than the scientists.