Got my first jab tomorrow. Anyone else had theirs yet? I'm told that it's fairly painless, just gives you a dead arm for the rest of the day

I’m waiting to hear about mine Les, I should be in the next 2-3 weeks, my wife had hers and she said it gave her an headache and tiredness, I know people who I work with who have had it and they both had similar side effects, one of them had problems with his eyesight for 48 hours though and was sent to A&E but that subsided and he’s fine now. I’m not looking forward to having it if I’m honest but I know I have to have it. Good luck with it Les.

Ive had mine Les due to having a lung problem. Arms a bit saw for a day or so but thats it. Feel much better for having it psychologically as there is very good chance it will protect you. When you read what some people have suffered when catching Covid its scary. I personally know/knew two people that have caught it. One was very ill but recovered and the other died from it.

Had mine about 3 weeks. No problems with anything, never felt a thing. Mind you my better half tells me I'm thick skinned. Don't know why :) :) :) :) :) :)

Had mine as 70+ few weeks ago Les. No problems at all. Takes about a week for your arm to wither and drop off.

Had mine Pfizer around 3 weeks ago, dead arm for a few hours, Mrs had Oxford AZ about 6 weeks ago and felt achy and tired until the next day but both completely fine after 24 hours

Had the pfizer in Feb. Hardly felt a thing when they did it and had a very slight discomfort in my arm overnight. Nothing at all really. Should be a piece of cake to a man that's had the top of his head removed.  ;D

We’ve had staff at work that have had it, some were fine, some felt poorly for a couple of days and three have been told by their doctor not to have the second jab because of the severe side affects they suffered...

I guess if you’re concerned about catching it or feel it will help then the potential side affects are worth it?

I don't know how many millions of people have had the jab but to me regardless of side effects I will have the 2nd. What's more like my flu jab I will have again when told.

You are always going to get a few who have the jab that will have side effects but not having it doesn't bear thinking about. Basically it's have the jab and hopefully their won't be a problem other wise the likely hood of getting covid is high and you might die.

Quoted from ginnywings

Had the pfizer in Feb. Hardly felt a thing when they did it and had a very slight discomfort in my arm overnight. Nothing at all really. Should be a piece of cake to a man that's had the top of his head removed.  ;D

Ha ha. Yeah, 5 times they sawed my head open before they finally sorted me out. This'll be a doddle.  :)

Had mine three weeks ago yesterday. Made me actually sick (astra zeneca) but by the Tuesday was as right as rain. Will definitely be having the second jab in May.

Had my first jab 2 weeks ago as I've got a chronic kidney illness had, the AstraZeneca one. I woke up in the night feeling mildly unwell and felt slightly hungover the next day but nothing too bad, it's just the antibodies kicking in.

Having my first on Tuesday morning.

Had the pfizer one in Jan and had no problems at all.

I had the AZ vaccine yesterday morning. A bit surprised they invited me in this early as I wasn't expecting it until next month some time but I'd imagine I was offered it due to my mild asthma. I think they have some sort of an algorithm to calculate who gets it and asthma, regardless of severity, bumps you up the list.

Yesterday, I developed a headache quickly, but nothing else to report apart from the urge to peel a banana with my feet. Woke up this morning feeling as though I was a bit hungover, even though I've had nothing to drink for a few days. Stiff neck and shoulders but the biggest thing has been tiredness. Seems to be easing off so I'll be fine by the morning.

Mrs Ginny had the AZ and felt ropey for about three days. Headache and felt tired, plus some arm and shoulder pain. Think the AZ one has the most side effects.

I'm not really one for taking medicines and vaccines unless absolutely necessary. Try to keep myself fit with exercise and eating healthily. I've never had a flu jab since I was eligible for instance, and to be honest, I didn't intend to have the covid vaccine either, but when all those people were dying and it was running riot, I thought it was maybe being a bit selfish of me to turn it down, so I went with it, despite my reservations. One of my concerns was the lack of testing over a prolonged period of time and there are some reports of blood clots linked with the AZ vaccine appearing in the news.

On balance, I think it was the right decision and I will be having the second one in May.

You made the right choice Ginny.

I do wish the press would not hype things into a frenzy, I read this "Norway's health authorities said on Saturday that three health workers who had recently received the vaccine had experienced severe side effects". Because of this the Dutch are pausing their roll out.

Any drug is going to have some side effects on somebody somewhere, hence the leaflet inside every box of medication you get be it BP tabs or paracetamol. It's not good for those 3 people but for the millions it is going to save lives.

Had the AZ one on Friday. Bit of a stiff area round where the needle went in, but nothing else. So far.

The thing that hurt most was being given a leaflet giving advice for “older adults”, which technically I am, but don’t these people have any sensitivity? 😂

Had mine a few weeks ago never felt a thing and no after effects.

If you're older, you're less likely to get many side effects from the vaccines due to a weaker immune system. Younger people who have them are likely to feel more ropey, after the second dose especially.

If you get a more severe response (fluey symptoms) after the first dose, you may well be seropositive already (i.e. you've already had Covid, even if you didn't know anything about it at the time).

One thing I am noticing with the vaccines is that people who are younger than me are getting their vaccines before my age group (people with no underlying issues)  my work colleagues many of them who live in the Lincoln & Sleaford area have had theirs (some are 5 years younger than me) I’m 51 and still not heard anything about receiving it.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

One thing I am noticing with the vaccines is that people who are younger than me are getting their vaccines before my age group (people with no underlying issues)  my work colleagues many of them who live in the Lincoln & Sleaford area have had theirs (some are 5 years younger than me) I’m 51 and still not heard anything about receiving it.

Don't think they have got to your age group yet. Currently 56 to 59 I think. If you know people in their 40's getting jabbed, I can't think why, unless they have underlying health issues.

I also think some Doctor's surgeries are more ahead than others. My brother is 60 and still hasn't had his yet, but at my surgery, they are doing people in their 50's now. His surgery is way behind mine.

Quoted from ginnywings

Don't think they have got to your age group yet. Currently 56 to 59 I think. If you know people in their 40's getting jabbed, I can't think why, unless they have underlying health issues.

I also think some Doctor's surgeries are more ahead than others. My brother is 60 and still hasn't had his yet, but at my surgery, they are doing people in their 50's now. His surgery is way behind mine.

One of the problems I found was it also depends on your health area. Those GP's in Lincolnshire have high proportion of elderly than GP's in NELC. Also their is a difference in how various illness's are described( what is chronic and what isn't).

Yes I think it is mainly to do with the area I live in, I know Louth and the surrounding areas have a large population of elderly, I’m not too fussed on waiting (I was expecting middle of March to mid April anyway)  it just seemed a little odd that younger ages are being vaccinated in other areas. Not one of them who I know who’ve had it done have any underlying issues nor living with a partner who does, it must be something to do with demographics.

Quoted from ginnywings

Don't think they have got to your age group yet. Currently 56 to 59 I think. If you know people in their 40's getting jabbed, I can't think why, unless they have underlying health issues.

I'm only just into my late 40s which is why I was surprised to be called in. Must certainly be the asthma which bumped me up the list because, though it is only mild, I've used inhalers for well over 30 years. Perhaps that's why I was given it relatively soon?

Quoted from ginnywings

Don't think they have got to your age group yet. Currently 56 to 59 I think. If you know people in their 40's getting jabbed, I can't think why, unless they have underlying health issues.

I also think some Doctor's surgeries are more ahead than others. My brother is 60 and still hasn't had his yet, but at my surgery, they are doing people in their 50's now. His surgery is way behind mine.

You're right. It's the 56 to 59's they are doing now. I just come into it. I'm surprised people younger than that are receiving it, unless they have underlying health issues or are a key worker.

Quoted from ginnywings

Try to keep myself fit with exercise and eating healthily.  

Good on you 👍

Quoted from Les Brechin

You're right. It's the 56 to 59's they are doing now. I just come into it. I'm surprised people younger than that are receiving it, unless they have underlying health issues or are a key worker.

I don’t think it’s to do with being a key worker Les because I’m classed as one, I have an ID card which states Key worker, my guess is that these areas were the younger generation are getting vaccinated quicker is due to less elderly living in that area or they have more services available in that area, my mate who lives in Little Grimsby is 52 and was vaccinated in louth hospital last week (no underlying issues) he’s the only one I know local though who’s had it at my age (51/52) the colleagues I’m talking about live out of our area.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

Yes I think it is mainly to do with the area I live in, I know Louth and the surrounding areas have a large population of elderly, I’m not too fussed on waiting (I was expecting middle of March to mid April anyway)  it just seemed a little odd that younger ages are being vaccinated in other areas. Not one of them who I know who’ve had it done have any underlying issues nor living with a partner who does, it must be something to do with demographics.

Many of the special schools have seen their staff vaccinated and a fair fee doctors surgeries seem to have gotten their hands on it which is why there’s a large number of under 50s. All of our staff were offered, some of which are 21/22 and then up to over 60.

Hope everything went ok Les.

Quoted from DB

Hope everything went ok Les.

All fine, no problem. Didn't even feel a sharp object (which I'm quite used to actually)  ;D

No side effects so far but we'll see what happens.

Had mine with no problems .

I got my invite today, the nearest one (at the moment) is Skegness and then Lincoln, I should have had it within the next week.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

I got my invite today, the nearest one (at the moment) is Skegness and then Lincoln, I should have had it within the next week.

My wife was invited several weeks to Scunthorpe or Lincoln. This was on a Saturday so we booked Scunthorpe. On the Monday my wife phoned the GP surgery and was offered Louth Hospital, so cancelled Scunthorpe.

Just a thought, might be of help.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

I got my invite today, the nearest one (at the moment) is Skegness and then Lincoln, I should have had it within the next week.

Not sure where you are actually living at the minute Chris, but if you are using the NHS website to book an appointment then keep trying. It kept offering me Hull City Hall or The Lincolnshire Showground as my nearest but I eventually got it at a place just off Doughty Road in Grimsby Town Centre after umpteen tries.

Wife and I have ours tomorrow.

I’m a little concerned as I have all the symptoms of long term Covid. In November 2019 on return from a holiday in the US I was taken in hospital with what at the time was a mystery illness which nobody at the hospital had a clue about. Which included high temperature and total loss of feeling and use of my arms and legs for several hours, which was very scary.

Since I’m still suffering from lack of breath, exhaustion and restricted use of my arms and legs I’m at little concerned at the thought of the vaccine but since we want to travel later in the year I’m taking the risk.

Quoted from Les Brechin

Not sure where you are actually living at the minute Chris, but if you are using the NHS website to book an appointment then keep trying. It kept offering me Hull City Hall or The Lincolnshire Showground as my nearest but I eventually got it at a place just off Doughty Road in Grimsby Town Centre after umpteen tries.

I got fed up with try and was getting a bit concerned that I would miss out altogether, so I decided that I will have a drive out to Lincoln a week on Sunday

Quoted from fishyfanny

I got fed up with try and was getting a bit concerned that I would miss out altogether, so I decided that I will have a drive out to Lincoln a week on Sunday

I was very close to that. On several occasions it offered me a place in Grimsby and after selecting dates for my 2 jabs it kept coming up with "One of your dates in no longer available, please try again"

I was almost resigned to driving to Lincoln too until I finally managed to get a local booking. Apparently you can manage your booking once done so maybe try going online and seeing if there is anything local being offered before you go for your first jab.

Just an update on my jab that I had on Monday. Had no reaction at all on the day or the day after but on the Wednesday and early Thursday my arm ached real bad. That was the only side effect I had though.

Quoted from fishyfanny

I got fed up with try and was getting a bit concerned that I would miss out altogether, so I decided that I will have a drive out to Lincoln a week on Sunday

I assume you have an invite otherwise they might turn you down.

All this talk of people driving miles to get their jab makes me glad I’m in a big city. First one was about 1.25 miles away and the second one will be < mile, so both very walkable.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

All this talk of people driving miles to get their jab makes me glad I’m in a big city. First one was about 1.25 miles away and the second one will be < mile, so both very walkable.

I'm pleased for you KM, but my memories are of traffic fumes, 1,000's of people going in all directions, traffic jams and looking on the news demo's of all descriptions. Police brutality on Clapham Common!.

For me a life of a country bumpkin, less traffic, country lanes, clean air, fields of crops, lambs with a few cows!  (thumbup2)(thumbup2)

My Mrs had her jab two weeks ago, hardly been able to get out of bed, not been able to do the simplest of tasks for herself.
So no change or side effects at all really 🤣

Quoted from DB

I'm pleased for you KM, but my memories are of traffic fumes, 1,000's of people going in all directions, traffic jams and looking on the news demo's of all descriptions. Police brutality on Clapham Common!.

For me a life of a country bumpkin, less traffic, country lanes, clean air, fields of crops, lambs with a few cows!  (thumbup2)(thumbup2)

This last year has mostly been great on the pollution front. I found out last Spring that the sky is blue! Today was fabulous.

We’ve got Richmond Park 2km away. No cows or sheep but plenty of deer.

Re: the Clapham Common vigil, and the reason for it, I told my 3 daughters that you should be safe going out as long as there isn’t an off-duty copper around.

Had my jab yesterday, felt no side effects at all so far.

Up The Mighty Iron.

Quoted from promotion plaice

Had my jab yesterday, felt no side effects at all so far.

Up The Mighty Iron.

Sure you've no side effects, hallucinations perhaps! :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

My wife and I are having our second jabs tomorrow.  8)

That’s good news Pete.

Just watching the news and people speculating about foreign holidays. I don’t know why the government just doesn’t ban it. We don’t want people bringing the virus, and especially new variants, back with them. Even if you have been vaccinated you still might be able to carry it even if you don’t get ill.

A simple firm rule will let everyone know where they stand and it’ll be beneficial to the wider British economy. I know the airline and travel booking industry will be bending the government’s ear, but their loss is someone else’s gain. And it’s be better for the environment.

We’ve come a long way, let’s not ruin it by being impatient for a bit of sun and cheap booze.

Quoted from grimsby pete

My wife and I are having our second jabs tomorrow.  8)

Hope all goes well.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

That’s good news Pete.

Just watching the news and people speculating about foreign holidays. I don’t know why the government just doesn’t ban it. We don’t want people bringing the virus, and especially new variants, back with them. Even if you have been vaccinated you still might be able to carry it even if you don’t get ill.

A simple firm rule will let everyone know where they stand and it’ll be beneficial to the wider British economy. I know the airline and travel booking industry will be bending the government’s ear, but their loss is someone else’s gain. And it’s be better for the environment.

We’ve come a long way, let’s not ruin it by being impatient for a bit of sun and cheap booze.

I'm with you, just ban all none essential foreign travel, food, and business use. The health of the nation should be the only thing that should matter to Boris, what's more, the UK travel tourism and hospitality can boom.

I’m having my first jab on Sunday morning Pete (10am) I’ve managed to get in at my local doctors surgery in Louth, it was worth holding out a few days because my choices (for the vaccine) were Skegness, Lincoln, Nottingham, Newark.

had mine early feb, dead arm nothing more, had covid so assumed thats why

Quoted from DB

I'm with you, just ban all none essential foreign travel, food, and business use. The health of the nation should be the only thing that should matter to Boris, what's more, the UK travel tourism and hospitality can boom.

And when everyone is dead or ill no one will be flying abroad.

PS and I’m not just saying this because my mother-in-law lives abroad. 😁

Quoted from cmackenzie4

I’m having my first jab on Sunday morning Pete (10am) I’ve managed to get in at my local doctors surgery in Louth, it was worth holding out a few days because my choices (for the vaccine) were Skegness, Lincoln, Nottingham, Newark.

All our local surgeries are doing it so not far to go, I can't believe people in Grimsby are having to travel so far.Glad you got yours local Chris.

Quoted from grimsby pete

My wife and I are having our second jabs tomorrow.  8)

Hope everything has gone well for both of you.

Good luck to all those who’ve had the Jab, it’s great to know people including friends and family are being able to get back to normality seeing friends and family is priceless, also good luck to those who choose not to have the jab, if it’s not for you then well done for making your own informed choice and not that of the government.

Quoted from DB

Hope everything has gone well for both of you.

Thanks DB we are both fine no queue in and out in five minutes.

Quoted from grimsby pete

Thanks DB we are both fine no queue in and out in five minutes.

Good to hear it.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

That’s good news Pete.

Just watching the news and people speculating about foreign holidays. I don’t know why the government just doesn’t ban it. We don’t want people bringing the virus, and especially new variants, back with them. Even if you have been vaccinated you still might be able to carry it even if you don’t get ill.

A simple firm rule will let everyone know where they stand and it’ll be beneficial to the wider British economy. I know the airline and travel booking industry will be bending the government’s ear, but their loss is someone else’s gain. And it’s be better for the environment.

We’ve come a long way, let’s not ruin it by being impatient for a bit of sun and cheap booze.

Do not fancy going anywhere now KM our travelling days are over.

Will nip to Felixstowe to see the sea and the odd footy match to watch Town that all.

Got invite from local doc yesterday for next Saturday, only a young man at 48 and wasn’t expecting one for months. My ticket to Wetherspoons?

I had my vaccine yesterday at 10am and initially was ok (didn’t even feel the needle) but last night around 8pm I started feeling rough and still do now, I’m aching, banging headache and feel like I have a bad cold (those symptoms) has anyone else had these symptoms if so how long did it last for? I had the AstraZeneca vaccine.

I had the same vaccine Chris. I had mine at 6pm last Monday and felt ok until about 3pm Tuesday afternoon. I started to feel really cold and had a headache, got the thermometer out and found that I had a slight temperature. I took a couple of paracetamol and started feeling better after 4 or 5 hours. I took a couple more paracetamol before I went to bed and was right as rain the next morning.

The aching and fever symptoms seem to be subsiding now, I’ve been taking paracetamol and plenty of water, it’s lasted around 10-12 hours.

Yep Chris plus initially throwing up. Had vaccine on a Saturday was fine by Tuesday

Wow! That’s a bit extreme Ian, I’ve heard of people feeling nauseous (luckily I didn’t feel that way) but actually being sick I’ve not heard of that one, glad you’re ok mate.

Some one said us old gits have a weaker immune system so we don't suffer with side effects Chris.

You are a bit younger and your immune system is attacking the vaccine hence your side effects.

Glad you are feeling a bit better now mate.

A mate of mine who is in his early 40's so wouldn't expect a vaccine for a few months but is desperate to be able to see his parents again has been going to his local pharmacy before they close for the past week to see if he could get an unused vaccine. It seemed a bit of a long shot to me but he got a jab yesterday. He's had to leave work today because he felt rough. I just felt mildly hungover after my 1st jab.

Only effect I had was an aching arm for about a day and a half. Not immediately after or the day after that though. I had my jab on a Monday and it was Wednesday before I got the dead arm.

I had the AstraZeneca vaccine and had no side effects at all, touching 70 perhaps my body put up a less fight! On a lighter note are sure it wasn't a delayed reaction to Saturday's match!

Seriously I hope all of you who have had side effects get over them quickly and the vaccine works.

My body is used to me abusing it so probably just said whatever !!!!  ;D

Quoted from cmackenzie4

Wow! That’s a bit extreme Ian, I’ve heard of people feeling nauseous (luckily I didn’t feel that way) but actually being sick I’ve not heard of that one, glad you’re ok mate.

I did some reading up about it and an American scientist said the more extreme reactions "might" be as a result of having had the virus at some time (presumably in my case asymptomatically) meaning the antibodies are already present and quicker to deal with whatever the jab puts into you.
I don't know but it certainly won't stop me having the second shot in May.

As I am employed in the health and social care sector I had my vaccine on 2nd February, it was the Pfizer one and I had absoloutely no side effects at all, I have my 2nd jab mid April

Firstly I'm pleased for all who are having the vaccine. If you are thinking not for me then that is your choice but please consider the number of deaths and, at the moment there is no magical cure.

I also wondered if anybody knows what happens next to those who have had the vaccine. I have a flu jab every year, have done for ages. Will we be having an annual covid Jab?

Quoted from DB

Firstly I'm pleased for all who are having the vaccine. If you are thinking not for me then that is your choice but please consider the number of deaths and, at the moment there is no magical cure.

I also wondered if anybody knows what happens next to those who have had the vaccine. I have a flu jab every year, have done for ages. Will we be having an annual covid Jab?

More than likely DB, I asked the nurse if we will get out annual flu jab and covid  one at the same time next year she replied it would make it a lot easier for her if we do.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

Wow! That’s a bit extreme Ian, I’ve heard of people feeling nauseous (luckily I didn’t feel that way) but actually being sick I’ve not heard of that one, glad you’re ok mate.

that was my biggest symptom when testing positive. in the end was bringing up bile

Supposedly, if you have a strong reaction to the first dose of the Pfizer, you've probably had Covid in the past. If not, you'll generally feel much grottier with the second dose. Probably quite grotty if you're a bit younger.

With the AZ you're more likely to feel unwell after the first dose than the second (though I've had a slight headache for well over 2 weeks since I've had mine). Looks as though there is a miniscule risk of a rare blood clotting condition for younger people (mostly women) with this vaccine. A couple of orders of magnitude or more lower than the risk of death from the virus itself, but something to be aware of. Wouldn't surprise me if we ultimately see other vaccine types given to younger women as they become available - providing they don't have their own issues.

Ultimately, if you feel poorly after any of the vaccines, it just goes to show that it's working as your immune system is responding in the correct manner.

Looks like it has come to pass that younger folk will be offered non-AZ vaccines if they want.

Top up jabs on the way folkes!

Quoted from Humbercod

Top up jabs on the way folkes!

Good for you, hope everything goes ok stay safe.

Had my first Oxford jab last week. Felt pretty crappy for 2/3 days. To the point, I was convinced I had Covid. Not looking forward to a repeat in 6 weeks or so. However, certainly preferable to the real thing.

Quoted from smokey111

Had my first Oxford jab last week. Felt pretty crappy for 2/3 days. To the point, I was convinced I had Covid. Not looking forward to a repeat in 6 weeks or so. However, certainly preferable to the real thing.

Apparently, the Oxford makes you feel unwell on the first dose but not the second,  whereas the Pfizer is the opposite and makes you unwell on the second dose. I had the Pfizer, so got the second dose to look forward to.

Quoted from DB

Good for you, hope everything goes ok stay safe.

Not for me fortunately, still relatively fit and healthy 👍

Quoted from ginnywings

Apparently, the Oxford makes you feel unwell on the first dose but not the second,  whereas the Pfizer is the opposite and makes you unwell on the second dose. I had the Pfizer, so got the second dose to look forward to.

I had the Oxford and it didn't affect me, my second dose is due in May. Sons wife had Pfizer and her second dose made her unwell, so I hope you will be ok with your 2nd dose. My wife had the Pfizer and no ill effects after the first dose, her 2nd one is in 2 weeks' time. So I'll have to see what happens with her.

Quoted from ginnywings

Apparently, the Oxford makes you feel unwell on the first dose but not the second,  whereas the Pfizer is the opposite and makes you unwell on the second dose. I had the Pfizer, so got the second dose to look forward to.

i hope not!! hoping already having had covid means i have no side effects

Quoted from Hagrid

i hope not!! hoping already having had covid means i have no side effects

Unfortunately, not. You're still likely to feel grotty with the second dose, despite prior infection. On the positive side of things, you ought to be left with really good protection against severe illness for a year or two - better than anybody who hasn't had both prior infection and the vaccine. Well worth a day or two in bed, if that's what you get.

Yes, a reaction after a vaccination is a good thing.  The body is testing and preparing defences against Covid.  Better prepared for the virus.

I felt really bad after my first vaccine (flu like symptoms and aching all over) but after 12 hours it subsided and I felt a lot better although my arm ached for 4/5 days, my wife had her second Pfizer jab last week and was ok with both, she felt slightly tired after each but was mainly ok, my next jab is due at the beginning of June.

My 2nd jab is a week tomorrow, Pfizer vaccine and the first jab left me with no side effects at all, but I have heard from colleagues at work that their 2nd Pfizer jab made them quite unwell, so I am prepared for that, I will make sure I have some Paracetamol on the ready aswell if needed!

Quoted from Davec

My 2nd jab is a week tomorrow, Pfizer vaccine and the first jab left me with no side effects at all, but I have heard from colleagues at work that their 2nd Pfizer jab made them quite unwell, so I am prepared for that, I will make sure I have some Paracetamol on the ready aswell if needed!

Hope everything goes well for you.

But if not forget the para's; 2/3 pints of Guinness, followed by 2 large glasses of red wine. If you are still worried then 2 very good stiff whisky's. In the morning consider the paracetamols then.

Joking  ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

Had my second pfizer jab last week Wednesday and felt like absolute crap for a couple of days. Hopefully suggesting that I have a very robust immune response to the virus now though.

Had my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday morning before work and gosh the side effects are brutal, last night I hardly slept at all as I was absolutely shivering, anybody would have thought I was sleeping outside in the winter! And now literally every single muscle in my body is aching and feel so weak, I'm just laid in bed watching TV and listening to music as I don't dare stand up Incase my legs give way!

Hopefully this means it is working :)

Quoted from Davec

Had my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday morning before work and gosh the side effects are brutal, last night I hardly slept at all as I was absolutely shivering, anybody would have thought I was sleeping outside in the winter! And now literally every single muscle in my body is aching and feel so weak, I'm just laid in bed watching TV and listening to music as I don't dare stand up Incase my legs give way!

Hopefully this means it is working :)

Sorry to hear that, I hope you recover from it soon. From reading this thread and listening to others I think the effects of the 2nd jab depend on each individual. Get well soon.

Side effects far more common than media suggests. Official reports ....

AstraZeneca -
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/979487/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_vaccine_analysis_print.pdf


Pfizer -
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/979485/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer-BioNTech_vaccine_analysis_print.pdf

Quoted from DB

Sorry to hear that, I hope you recover from it soon. From reading this thread and listening to others I think the effects of the 2nd jab depend on each individual. Get well soon.

Thanks I'm feeling much better now as the day has gone along!

Quoted from Davec

Had my 2nd dose of Pfizer yesterday morning before work and gosh the side effects are brutal, last night I hardly slept at all as I was absolutely shivering, anybody would have thought I was sleeping outside in the winter! And now literally every single muscle in my body is aching and feel so weak, I'm just laid in bed watching TV and listening to music as I don't dare stand up Incase my legs give way!

Hopefully this means it is working :)

bloody hell

my second dose is thursday, dont wanna be in bed over BH weekend

hope you're recovered

The people with the best immune system have the worse side effects.

I never had any so mine must be rubbish.

My wife had her second Pfizer yesterday. Her arm ached a bit today but she fine now. From what's been posted I think different people react in different ways, so it's down to the individual.

A school within our trust had to shut to a significant amount of pupils on Thursday and Friday due to severe side affects of the second dose for 8 staff.

We’ve a staff member who’s been told be her doctor to not have her second dose at any cost and she’s also still suffering from a muscle infection or some sort in her arm where the amateur volunteer gave her the injection.

I’ve actually no idea when my second one is meant to be.

I still disagree with the approach that we should all be almost emotionally blackmailed in to it but I’ve nothing against people wanting to have it...

The thing is Aldi we need 80 odd percent of the population to get vaccinated to give us herd immunity otherwise we risk developing new strains. Your freedom of choice impinges on other people’s safety.  

Quoted from KingstonMariner

The thing is Aldi we need 80 odd percent of the population to get vaccinated to give us herd immunity otherwise we risk developing new strains. Your freedom of choice impinges on other people’s safety.  

This article explains why we'll probably never achieve herd immunity.
Vaccination isn't proven to prevent transmission

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Vaccination should be always be the persons choice.
There are side effects from vaccination as reported.
People should be aware of these & make a risk based choice.

Quoted from aldi_01

A school within our trust had to shut to a significant amount of pupils on Thursday and Friday due to severe side affects of the second dose for 8 staff.

We’ve a staff member who’s been told be her doctor to not have her second dose at any cost and she’s also still suffering from a muscle infection or some sort in her arm where the amateur volunteer gave her the injection.

I’ve actually no idea when my second one is meant to be.

I still disagree with the approach that we should all be almost emotionally blackmailed in to it but I’ve nothing against people wanting to have it...

If you contact your GP's surgery they should be able to tell you.

Having the jab is a personal choice so it's up to you. The way I look at it is that if I don't have the jab and I get covid I might die, as have unfortunately millions of others. So if I have the jab my life expectancy will be longer than somebody who doesn't.

To me, it's life or death, but it's your choice what you want to do.

Quoted from Stadium

This article explains why we'll probably never achieve herd immunity.
Vaccination isn't proven to prevent transmission

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Vaccination should be always be the persons choice.
There are side effects from vaccination as reported.
People should be aware of these & make a risk based choice.

You might be right about herd immunity. Vaccination might not be proven to prevent transmission in this case, but we know it works in others.

The problem is who makes that risk based choice? Who’s risk are we talking about, the individual’s or society’s? The individual’s right to choose is just a cultural norm. Other cultures wouldn’t bat an eye-lid about it. We have lots of analogous situations where even in an individualistic society, government has stepped in and taken that choice for us. Even where the individual’s risk doesn’t directly harm others.

Herd immunity probably isn't going to happen with Covid-19. Long term immunity doesn't occur with most coronaviruses. However, if you have antibodies (and an associated T-cell and B-cell response), whether from prior infection or vaccination, chances are your body will mount a good immune response when you are next infected. In other words, chances of the cascading auto-immune response which causes serious illness and death at the moment should be reduced massively. Well worth the slight risks from vaccination in comparison to a lifetime of waiting for the other shoe to drop and see if you're one of the lucky ones (a majority, obviously), who only gets mild infection. That doesn't even consider the 'Long Covid' issue.

On the flip side of the coin, I suppose there's a good chance that we'll have more effective treatments for serious Covid-related disease (and even better vaccines, too)  within the next year or two. Might reduce the risk of waiting to catch it in the fullness of time. Not sure if they'll ever have effective treatments for Long Covid, however. Nobody knows what it is for certain, but probably an auto-immune issue and they are notoriously difficult to treat.

I really didn't want to take the vaccine personally, but I decided to in the end, not for me, but for the greater good. On balance, I think we are more likely to get back to normal quicker if a good percentage of people are immunised.

At the time of my first jab, there were thousands dying every day and it seemed the right thing to do.

Felt excrement for 24 hours, fine afterwards.

Quoted from Hagrid

Felt excrement for 24 hours, fine afterwards.

Good to hear you're ok now. How does your long covid affect this for you?

Quoted from DB

Good to hear you're ok now. How does your long covid affect this for you?

not really sure DB

Still suffering with the fatigue side of things but certainly improving the more i get out and up my exercise

Quoted from Hagrid

not really sure DB

Still suffering with the fatigue side of things but certainly improving the more i get out and up my exercise

Pleased to hear it. Take care of yourself and keep exercising.

I see under 40’s are to be given the choice of an alternative for the Astra Zeneca, this is good for me and will be the difference between having it and not having it.. not sure why but I had a bad feeling about the Astra Zeneca and was willing to give the vaccine a miss due to that being the predominant one at the minute.

Quoted from Neilo83

I see under 40’s are to be given the choice of an alternative for the Astra Zeneca, this is good for me and will be the difference between having it and not having it.. not sure why but I had a bad feeling about the Astra Zeneca and was willing to give the vaccine a miss due to that being the predominant one at the minute.

I had Astra Zeneca with no problems and will have my 2nd jab next week. I am looking forward to the full protection the vaccine will give.

As I've posted already to me it's a no brainer, life or death? Millions have died with covid already.

Case rate for the rare blood clots following the AZ vaccine is around 1 in 100,000 with a 1 in 5-ish fatality rate where it isn't caught and treated in time. So, roughly a 1 in 500,000 risk of death. Your chances of dying after catching Covid are much higher, probably for all age groups.

However, the caveat is that this is taking all age groups as a whole. It seems that the clots are more common in under-40s with a third of the deaths in this group, despite the fact that many more over-40s have received the AZ jab. This would tally with it being an issue caused by an overreaction to the vaccine by the immune system. Younger people tend to have a stronger immune response. This is why they are recommending that most under-40s should be offered an alternative vaccine.

The J&J vaccine uses a similar technology and has a similar clotting problem (though not in quite the same numbers as the AZ vaccine).

Nothing is without risk, however. Some evidence from Israel that there have been some cases of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) in younger people after they have received their second Pfizer jab. Again, a very scarce occurrence and it is difficult to say for certain if it actually is caused by the vaccine itself as there are always cases of myocarditis in the young in any case. It can be brought on by other illnesses and viruses such as the flu, for example.

Ultimately, you're probably better off with the Pfizer than AZ if you are younger and have the option, but statistically, there is very little in it. You're generally more likely to come to a sticky end just going about your daily business than from one of the vaccines.

No idea what they stuck in my arm yesterday or the first time but I do know she put one in them took the needle out because the computer went down before she could verify who I was.

Arm resembles a pin cushion this morning. Got none of the paperwork mind...

Had my 2nd AZ jab yesterday. No after effects at all, just like the first one.

Quoted from DB

Had my 2nd AZ jab yesterday. No after effects at all, just like the first one.

Good to hear DB. Just been reading about the Indian health ambassador who took his shot live on TV then went into cardiac arrest 2hrs later before dyeing the next day of a heart attack. This could of been pure coincidence but then there are reported cases of people developing heart problems from the vaccine so maybe he was one of the unlucky ones.

Quoted from Humbercod

Good to hear DB. Just been reading about the Indian health ambassador who took his shot live on TV then went into cardiac arrest 2hrs later before dieing the next day of a heart attack. This could of been pure coincidence but then there are reported cases of people developing heart problems from the vaccine so maybe he was one of the unlucky ones.

I feel very sorry for this person and their families but we cannot say much about the situation because we do not have all the facts about his health prior to the jab. From what I have read there are many similar stories of people becoming ill after the jabs but it would be interesting to see how many people have no, or little, side effects compared to those who have severe side effects.

Did the vaccine cause this death? Possibly, but probably not - you get a lot of people in their late 50s in high-pressure jobs who succumb to heart attacks. I think I read he had the Covaxin vaccine - that's an inactivated virus type which is very commonly used (we'll be getting a similar vaccine from Valneva ourselves), so it ought to be safe. That said, there was a bit of doubt about the way in which the trials were run in India with dosing starting at very early stages before proper safety studies could have been completed. If it had been the mRNA, AZ or J&J vaccines, I'd have said pretty much certainly nothing to do with them. Not sure the data for this one is trustworthy enough.

I notice the anti-vaxxers are feverishly reporting the death was caused by blood clots. Yes - that's what causes heart attacks!

Quoted from Maringer

Did the vaccine cause this death? Possibly, but probably not - you get a lot of people in their late 50s in high-pressure jobs who succumb to heart attacks. I think I read he had the Covaxin vaccine - that's an inactivated virus type which is very commonly used (we'll be getting a similar vaccine from Valneva ourselves), so it ought to be safe. That said, there was a bit of doubt about the way in which the trials were run in India with dosing starting at very early stages before proper safety studies could have been completed. If it had been the mRNA, AZ or J&J vaccines, I'd have said pretty much certainly nothing to do with them. Not sure the data for this one is trustworthy enough.

I notice the anti-vaxxers are feverishly reporting the death was caused by blood clots. Yes - that's what causes heart attacks!

The anti-vaxxers narrative is pure propaganda in my opinion, no sensible minded person would be anti-vaccine. There will always a few loony’s out there against anything and everything, but generally the vast majority of the world population understand, that the world health is in a better place because of vaccines.
But what the governments and the big pharmaceutical company’s tend to do, is to pigeon hole anyone that may reasonably question these Covid vaccines (that are still effectively under trial) as being part of the loony brigade.  

Getting back to the Indian health ambassador it’s funny how we are soon told, that this is just another coincidence and nothing to do with the vaccine! Yet we were being told that anyone that died 30 days after contracting Covid was because of Covid, when they were busy bumping up the Covid death rate figures... funny that 🤔

Some rumblings today about the lockdown lift may be delayed because of the Indian variant. This could go on for a long time and looks like it's something we are going to have to live with permanently like the Flu.

Got my second Pfizer jab next week.

Quoted from ginnywings

Some rumblings today about the lockdown lift may be delayed because of the Indian variant. This could go on for a long time and looks like it's something we are going to have to live with permanently like the Flu.

Got my second Pfizer jab next week.

We were much too slow in putting India on the red list, it was being reported how bad things were but Johnson was scheduled to fly there and so it got delayed. Then there was a week of 50 packed planes a day and numerous private flights to beat the quarantine,  hopefully this variant will be tackled by the vaccine and won’t be the one that affects the young much more but we seem to learn very little from the example of countries like Australia in terms of border control during a pandemic.
On another note people can start going to Portugal (a country with big links to Brazil)on Monday, a country still in a state of emergency until at least the end of the month.

Had first AZ vaccine no side effects at all.

I’ve been invited by my GP surgery for a Pfizer vacc on Thurs. At 31 I wasn’t expecting the text for a few weeks yet. Can anyone summarise the side effects for the first dose of Pfizer?

Quoted from LH

I’ve been invited by my GP surgery for a Pfizer vacc on Thurs. At 31 I wasn’t expecting the text for a few weeks yet. Can anyone summarise the side effects for the first dose of Pfizer?

A guy at work in his 40's was fine after his first pint of Tizer but his second put him out of action for a couple of days. Had my second AstraZeneca on Friday and had no issues, felt mildly hungover after the first.

Had second AZ dose yesterday. Was due on 2 June but got a text Sunday saying I could rebook it earlier. Fluey symptoms well into today but feel ok for now.

The delay with putting India on the Red list (despite Pakistan being in the list with a fraction of the incidence) was because Bozza was going there and didn’t want to offend Modhi (sp?) because of the trade deal. Another self-inflicted injury.

Quoted from LH

I’ve been invited by my GP surgery for a Pfizer vacc on Thurs. At 31 I wasn’t expecting the text for a few weeks yet. Can anyone summarise the side effects for the first dose of Pfizer?

My arm hurt the next day and that was it.

Quoted from LH

I’ve been invited by my GP surgery for a Pfizer vacc on Thurs. At 31 I wasn’t expecting the text for a few weeks yet. Can anyone summarise the side effects for the first dose of Pfizer?

No side effects at all for me from my first dose of Pfizer except a slightly heavy feeling in my arm for the night.

Got my second one tomorrow. Hope it goes as well as the first.

Thanks all. This has reassured me a bit.

In general, you feel more grotty after the first dose of the AZ than the second and a lot more grotty after the second dose of the Pfizer compared to the first. Same goes with the Moderna (similar mRNA technology to Pfizer), except the side-effects tend to be more severe than for the Pfizer. My sister is getting her 2nd dose of the Pfizer tomorrow afternoon and she'll probably be out of action on Thursday.

Some people, most usually the elderly, don't feel that bad after either dose. Probably indicates less of an immune response this being the case, but not necessarily so. The immune system is a very complicated thing, apparently.

Quoted from Maringer

In general, you feel more grotty after the first dose of the AZ than the second and a lot more grotty after the second dose of the Pfizer compared to the first. Same goes with the Moderna (similar mRNA technology to Pfizer), except the side-effects tend to be more severe than for the Pfizer. My sister is getting her 2nd dose of the Pfizer tomorrow afternoon and she'll probably be out of action on Thursday.

Some people, most usually the elderly, don't feel that bad after either dose. Probably indicates less of an immune response this being the case, but not necessarily so. The immune system is a very complicated thing, apparently.

One of the rare good things about being old. My wife had both doses of the Pfizer and I had both doses of the AZ. Neither of us had side effects after any of the doses 8).

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

A guy at work in his 40's was fine after his first pint of Tizer but his second put him out of action for a couple of days. Had my second AstraZeneca on Friday and had no issues, felt mildly hungover after the first.

That’s good to hear, I was concerned, I was really rough with my first jab, I get my second jab (AstraZeneca) in a couple of weeks, hopefully won’t get them issues I had with this next one.

Quoted from ginnywings

No side effects at all for me from my first dose of Pfizer except a slightly heavy feeling in my arm for the night.

Got my second one tomorrow. Hope it goes as well as the first.

Hope everything is ok for you and went well.

Quoted from DB

Hope everything is ok for you and went well.

Thanks DB.

Had it at 3 o'clock and feel ok so far.

Quoted from ginnywings

Thanks DB.

Had it at 3 o'clock and feel ok so far.

Good to hear that.

Well enough to work today but my upper arm feels like someone has punched me really hard there. Bit like a dead leg.

Also had a slight headache develop last night, but nothing a couple of paracetamol couldn't sort out.

Apart from that, no other symptoms.

Quoted from ginnywings

Well enough to work today but my upper arm feels like someone has punched me really hard there. Bit like a dead leg.

Also had a slight headache develop last night, but nothing a couple of paracetamol couldn't sort out.

Apart from that, no other symptoms.

It seems strange how some people, like you, had a problem with your arm, yet my wife had the same vaccine as you and didn't have any after effects. I think it must be how different peoples immune system cope with it, however, it's good to know your out and about.

Had mine at 14:00 yesterday. Pfizer version.
My arm is hurting and aching and I feel drained and slightly ‘off’ but not too bad at all. Touch wood.

The common symptoms for pfizer include fatigue and muscle aches. All well and good but I’ve been on nights this week and only managed two hours sleep on Monday ‘night’. My arm feels like it’s been punched but it would have been by Tyson Fury. I am very, very tired and have very weak joints. Hopefully it’s gone tomorrow morning.

Quoted from LH

The common symptoms for pfizer include fatigue and muscle aches. All well and good but I’ve been on nights this week and only managed two hours sleep on Monday ‘night’. My arm feels like it’s been punched but it would have been by Tyson Fury. I am very, very tired and have very weak joints. Hopefully it’s gone tomorrow morning.

Hope you wake up ok tomorrow. The consequences of not having the jab don't bear thinking about.

Took the dog out in the rain about an hour ago and had a couple of paracetamol around 2ish and I’m fine now. Just need the rotation back in my shoulder for golf in the morning!

https://theempoweror.com/2021/05/22/young-model-stephanie-dubois-in-coma-after-astra-zeneca-vaccine/

She would have had over 99% chance of survival if she caught covid and her chances of catching it were very slim.

Her chances of catching it at some point were pretty high as this virus is going to be with us forever. But yes, chances of death were slim.

Very unfortunate for the girl and her family, obviously. It's why the JCVI aren't recommending the use of the AZ vaccine in under-40s in this country any longer. The risk ratio for over-30s is skewed the other way, just. For over-40s, it's orders of magnitude safer than contracting Covid-19.

I seem to remember reading that PHE reckons that around 14,000 lives have been saved by the vaccination programme in the UK so far. Many more spared hospitalisation and the problems that can cause and probably plenty who have avoided contracting Long Covid as well. Regrettably, a few hundred deaths caused by vaccine complications are acceptable in a public health emergency.

Quoted from Maringer

Her chances of catching it at some point were pretty high as this virus is going to be with us forever. But yes, chances of death were slim.

Very unfortunate for the girl and her family, obviously. It's why the JCVI aren't recommending the use of the AZ vaccine in under-40s in this country any longer. The risk ratio for over-30s is skewed the other way, just. For over-40s, it's orders of magnitude safer than contracting Covid-19.

I seem to remember reading that PHE reckons that around 14,000 lives have been saved by the vaccination programme in the UK so far. Many more spared hospitalisation and the problems that can cause and probably plenty who have avoided contracting Long Covid as well. Regrettably, a few hundred deaths caused by vaccine complications are acceptable in a public health emergency.

I think personally if your fit and healthy and under 50 there is absolutely no need to be taking unnecessary risks with these vaccines.

It is very sad when anybody dies and covid does not respect age. Her death however, was only said to be down to the vaccination by her family and friends.

'Her condition was said to be a reaction from the Covid Astra Zeneca vaccine according to friends and family on social media.'

While the under 50's maybe healthy and fit the problem is that they may have covid and pass it onto others who are not healthy and fit. So to me, it's better for all to be vaccinated to protect each other from carrying it and passing it on.

(Replying to Humbercod)

Then you have no understanding of what this novel Coronavirus can do on rare occasions to even the fittest and healthiest young person. One of the earliest traced patients in Italy (who infected a number of others) and who was on ventilation for weeks before surviving with crippled health, was a 37 year old super-fit marathon runner. You can't control how your immune system will react to this virus. An unlucky minority suffer severe and debilitating illness or death even when they are fit and healthy.

Heck, they even produced an easy to use graphic last month to illustrate the risks of the AZ vaccine in comparison to catching Covid:



Back then (earlyish April), if you were in your 30s, you had a 3-fold greater risk of serious harm from catching Covid than from the AZ vaccine. In your 40s, an 11-fold greater risk, in your 50s a 26-fold greater risk and so on.

The risk of catching Covid fell greatly (because the number of people vaccinated reduced transmission!) and this is why they changed the advice about under-40s getting an alternative to the AZ vaccine. If the data hadn't shown the good news that vaccines reduced transmission the risk factors would have remained similar and those in their 30s would still be getting the AZ vaccine now.

What is most bizarre about your stance is that the early data indicates that the B.1.167.2 'Indian' variant booming in areas around the country now could be up to 60% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant. This being the case, without a vaccination, the chances are that you'll be catching this at some point. The current vaccines are pretty effective against the 'Indian' variant but the more people catch this one (in the UK and around the world), the more chance of a variant emerging which can escape the vaccines.

As it stands, you're hoping to benefit from herd immunity developed by the actions of others. Entirely your choice, of course, but please don't try to spread anti-vaxx propaganda and sow doubt when the data doesn't indicate you have a leg to stand on.

Quoted from Maringer

(Replying to Humbercod)

Then you have no understanding of what this novel Coronavirus can do on rare occasions to even the fittest and healthiest young person. One of the earliest traced patients in Italy (who infected a number of others) and who was on ventilation for weeks before surviving with crippled health, was a 37 year old super-fit marathon runner. You can't control how your immune system will react to this virus. An unlucky minority suffer severe and debilitating illness or death even when they are fit and healthy.

Heck, THEY even produced an easy to use graphic last month to illustrate the risks of the AZ vaccine in comparison to catching Covid:

They🤔

Quoted Text

Back then (earlyish April), if you were in your 30s, you had a 3-fold greater risk of serious harm from catching Covid than from the AZ vaccine. In your 40s, an 11-fold greater risk, in your 50s a 26-fold greater risk and so on.

The risk of catching Covid fell greatly (because the number of people vaccinated reduced transmission!) and this is why they changed the advice about under-40s getting an alternative to the AZ vaccine. If the data hadn't shown the good news that vaccines reduced transmission the risk factors would have remained similar and those in their 30s would still be getting the AZ vaccine now.

What is most bizarre about your stance is that the early data indicates that the B.1.167.2 'Indian' variant booming in areas around the country now could be up to 60% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant. This being the case, without a vaccination, the chances are that you'll be catching this at some point. The current vaccines are pretty effective against the 'Indian' variant but the more people catch this one (in the UK and around the world), the more chance of a variant emerging which can escape the vaccines.

The Indian variant was shown to be yet more scaremongering government propaganda. Spoiler alert... plenty more variants to come in time for winter ....prepare for your experimental booster shots. Expect flue to be more prevalent this year as well due to falling immunity levels.

Quoted Text

As it stands, you're hoping to benefit from herd immunity developed by the actions of others. Entirely your choice, of course, but please don't try to spread anti-vaxx propaganda and sow doubt when the data doesn't indicate you have a leg to stand on.

As it stands I’m trusting my immune system to do it’s job, I’m not anti -vax or trying to spread anti-vax Propaganda. The stooges who churn this garbage out amounts to emotional blackmail, conditioned by the world leaders. You’ve got to keep making those billionaires hey Mariner!  Good old capitalism 😀

Quoted from Humbercod

They🤔

The Indian variant was shown to be yet more scaremongering government propaganda. Spoiler alert... plenty more variants to come in time for winter ....prepare for your experimental booster shots. Expect flue to be more prevalent this year as well due to falling immunity levels.

As it stands I’m trusting my immune system to do it’s job, I’m not anti -vax or trying to spread anti-vax Propaganda. The stooges who churn this garbage out amounts to emotional blackmail, conditioned by the world leaders. You’ve got to keep making those billionaires hey Mariner!  Good old capitalism 😀

"They". Easier than saying the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication of the University of Cambridge. Serious statisticians with the capability to analyse and understand the data - and communicate it clearly.

No, the Indian variant hasn't shown to be yet more scaremongering government propaganda. If you think it has, then please show us the evidence. Otherwise, you're the one doing the scaremongering.

B.1.167.2 appears to be outcompeting B.1.1.7 which itself outcompeted previous variants to become the dominant variant in much of the world. The data appears to show that B.1.1.7 is also more than 60% more deadly than the earlier variants as well:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/death-rate-64-higher-b117-covid-variant-study-finds

Hopefully, the 'Indian' variant has a mortality rate a bit closer to the variants which were prevalent before Christmas, but this isn't clear as yet.

Your final paragraph was just word soup so I don't have a response to that one.

Quoted Text

"They". Easier than saying the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication of the University of Cambridge. Serious statisticians with the capability to analyse and understand the data - and communicate it clearly.

These figures based on incidences of 2 per 10000 (as illustration) are potential!
They are also out of date not including the uprising of side effects that include the already reported blood clots with this vaccine, l just really hope come winter the potential ADE responses don’t materialise as a result of the experimental jabs.

Quoted Text

No, the Indian variant hasn't shown to be yet more scaremongering government propaganda. If you think it has, then please show us the evidence. Otherwise, you're the one doing the scaremongering.

With regards to the UK with which I was referring I can only find 4 reported deaths from the Indian variant! Yes 4 really just to clarify. Pure scaremongering for us to keep taking the needle, I believe they will start ramping this up with a new variant before Autumn to target our kids with threats of schools closures backed up with more dodgy PCR tests.

In other news first man to get vaccinated dies of unrelated ‘cough’ illness. Nothing to see here.

He was vaccinated in December which coincides with many on social media who are now saying there elderly loved ones vaccinated at the end of last year and early this year are now having bad reactions from heart attacks strokes even returning menstrual cycles and sadly death have been reported.

I know these story’s can’t be substantiated but I’ve read many of the reports and it is worrying, if anybody has any bad reactions on here make sure they are logged on the corona virus yellow card reporting site.

Some useful charts to indicate the trajectory of the 'Indian' variant at present. Bear in mind these only go up to 15th May:



(Sorry - don't know how to get it to show more than 1 image at a time, so will be multiple posts)

Those two charts were posted by Prof Christina Pagel, member of the Independent Sage group, generated from publicly available data.

Check out this twitter thread about the latest data on B.1.617.2 from Pagel. Long but interesting:



Ultimately, if the data on this variant keeps heading this direction, we're going to be back in lockdown before you know it. I'm supposed to be going on holiday in the UK in 2 months. I'm not so sure we'll be allowed, given the apparent way this variant is heading. I've got another trip booked in later September - still quite hopeful about that one.

Interesting that people keep trotting out the ‘we’ll be back in lockdown before we know it’ phrase...hoping that if they say it enough folk will believe it?

I had my vaccine weeks and weeks ago out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours organising the whole thing for our 45 staff. Several were severely ill and two weren’t allowed their second dose or advised against. We’ve a staff member, 23 who has been off work recently for another matter who has now tested positive...

We either crack on and return to actually normal, not this new normal they talk of else we’re stuck, worrying about something which fundamentally doesn’t go away, much like everything else...the fact they’re talking of booster jabs already suggest the vaccines, unlike those for TB etc. aren’t that effective.

I’m not anti vax in the slightest, I’m just fed up with the scaremongering, the whataboutery and the panic caused by media outlets and so on...not to mention the self righteous mammary you encounter every so often that tuts Becauee you need to get passed them or stand too close in their eyes...

It’s tiresome now and I, along with many must be fed up of the lies and hyperbole...remember when we were told that once the most vulnerable were all vaccinated we’d be cracking on...

I’m done with it all, I’ve never taken a test, I’ve not isolated, or been able to and I’ve not had so much as a sniffle in nearly two years...now if we want to talk about the ineptitude of government then that’s plain as day but can’t wait for those people who are obsessed with masks and the like to panic in an few weeks...

I do, in general, find charts/ graphs interesting but sometimes very confusing. I live in NEL but my GP is in Holten le Clay Lincolnshire. So do I look at Yorks & Humber or East Midlands?

On other health charts, I came under both North East England and the Midlands ( which took me up to the Scotish & Welsh borders). Interesting but very confusing.

The models and projections don’t help DB usually spun in a way of fact Neil Ferguson style.
Keep your eyes wide open!

Quoted from aldi_01

Interesting that people keep trotting out the ‘we’ll be back in lockdown before we know it’ phrase...hoping that if they say it enough folk will believe it?

I had my vaccine weeks and weeks ago out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours organising the whole thing for our 45 staff. Several were severely ill and two weren’t allowed their second dose or advised against. We’ve a staff member, 23 who has been off work recently for another matter who has now tested positive...

We either crack on and return to actually normal, not this new normal they talk of else we’re stuck, worrying about something which fundamentally doesn’t go away, much like everything else...the fact they’re talking of booster jabs already suggest the vaccines, unlike those for TB etc. aren’t that effective.

I’m not anti vax in the slightest, I’m just fed up with the scaremongering, the whataboutery and the panic caused by media outlets and so on...not to mention the self righteous mammary you encounter every so often that tuts Becauee you need to get passed them or stand too close in their eyes...

It’s tiresome now and I, along with many must be fed up of the lies and hyperbole...remember when we were told that once the most vulnerable were all vaccinated we’d be cracking on...

I’m done with it all, I’ve never taken a test, I’ve not isolated, or been able to and I’ve not had so much as a sniffle in nearly two years...now if we want to talk about the ineptitude of government then that’s plain as day but can’t wait for those people who are obsessed with masks and the like to panic in an few weeks...

Absolutely!

With regards to effectiveness I would say they it is definitely effective (short term) by suppressing the virus, but many drugs and vaccines are proved effective in the lab but fail to be released after years of testing prove serious side effects. An early AIDS vaccine that would stop the disease would be classed as effective but could never be released if the side effects gave you cancer!

And this is the worry we do not know yet what the side effects are! The vaccine has not been approved (which is why big Pharma cannot be held accountable) only released because of an emergency situation.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/the_facts_about_pfizer_and_biontech_s_covid_19_vaccine

First person to get vaccine dies actually translates to a 81 year old man who was an inpatient on a frailty ward before having the vaccine, dies!

It’s hardly evidence of anything untoward regarding the vaccine. Neither is quoting people from social media who have had elderly relatives die after having it. Elderly people die and grieving friends and family often find it easier to focus their attention on anything but their grief.

I’m not saying anyone is necessarily wrong but, I am questioning the credibility of this type of sensationalist ‘evidence’.

OK, then. Here's another chart to look at:



The chart was produced from modelling released earlier this month so we're only right at the start of the upward curve (cases have gone up about 10% over the past week). The initial data on the 'Indian' B.1.617.2 variant indicates it may be up to 60% more transmissible than the 'Kent' B.1.1.7 variant which has already spread to become one of the most dominant in many countries. The Kent variant is in decline because of vaccination and the restrictions still in place. The Indian variant is rocketing upwards despite the vaccination and restrictions still in place.

Fully vaccinated people have very good protection against the Kent, Indian and most of the other variants so it isn't likely that we'll see the same huge numbers of elderly people dying from the next wave of infections. There will still be a lot of deaths in older folk but nothing like the same level as during the past two waves. However, about 60% of adults in the UK aren't fully vaccinated yet so many of the hospitalisations will be amongst younger adults without any pre-existing health conditions. Even if only a very small proportion of those infected require hospitalisation, it will collapse the NHS. This is why the herd immunity plan initially mooted was quickly reversed during March 2020.

I think another lockdown, or at least very tight restrictions are almost certainly going to be required. This should be the last one, however, as the vaccinations should give enough of the population enough immunity to ensure that we're not faced with a collapse of the healthcare system in future waves of infections caused by new variants. In fact, it is likely that this coronavirus will eventually become just another endemic cold virus of the type most of us catch every year or two. Whether you develop your immunity to it through repeated infections or vaccination won't really matter. The risk of death from vaccination is obviously much lower so that's my choice.

Must be said, I'm surprised to see there is still so much, "It's just like the flu" thinking going on out there despite the vast amount of data refuting it. Each to their own, I suppose.

Maringer, it’s great that you provide all this information. Very useful. If you’re not brain dead or a conspiracy nut who won’t accept real evidence yet are happy to hoover up any old nonsense. I fear with Humbocod it’s a waste of effort, but for anyone who is uncertain it’s helpful information.

Quoted from aldi_01

Interesting that people keep trotting out the ‘we’ll be back in lockdown before we know it’ phrase...hoping that if they say it enough folk will believe it?

I had my vaccine weeks and weeks ago out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours organising the whole thing for our 45 staff. Several were severely ill and two weren’t allowed their second dose or advised against. We’ve a staff member, 23 who has been off work recently for another matter who has now tested positive...

We either crack on and return to actually normal, not this new normal they talk of else we’re stuck, worrying about something which fundamentally doesn’t go away, much like everything else...the fact they’re talking of booster jabs already suggest the vaccines, unlike those for TB etc. aren’t that effective.

I’m not anti vax in the slightest, I’m just fed up with the scaremongering, the whataboutery and the panic caused by media outlets and so on...not to mention the self righteous mammary you encounter every so often that tuts Becauee you need to get passed them or stand too close in their eyes...

It’s tiresome now and I, along with many must be fed up of the lies and hyperbole...remember when we were told that once the most vulnerable were all vaccinated we’d be cracking on...

I’m done with it all, I’ve never taken a test, I’ve not isolated, or been able to and I’ve not had so much as a sniffle in nearly two years...now if we want to talk about the ineptitude of government then that’s plain as day but can’t wait for those people who are obsessed with masks and the like to panic in an few weeks...

Aldi, sounds like you are worn out. But just because you are lucky and fed up it doesn’t mean there aren’t real risks.

Quoted from Sandford1981

First person to get vaccine dies actually translates to a 81 year old man who was an inpatient on a frailty ward before having the vaccine, dies!

It’s hardly evidence of anything untoward regarding the vaccine. Neither is quoting people from social media who have had elderly relatives die after having it. Elderly people die and grieving friends and family often find it easier to focus their attention on anything but their grief.

I’m not saying anyone is necessarily wrong but, I am questioning the credibility of this type of sensationalist ‘evidence’.

Elderly people die totally!

Likewise all those elderly frail people on the wards all died of Covid so we were being told.

I understand what you’re saying being sensationalist but then you’ve got to look at the sheer numbers they all can’t be wrong?
Besides you must have some serious issues to post about family members in this way just for a bit of click bait.  

Even Sky News were headlining earlier today that doctors have now been informed to look out for cases of stroke following the AZ so called vaccine!
It’s getting to the point now we’re people (mainly vaccinated) are going to g heave to stop burying their heads in the sand something is clearly not right, these cases I believe will continue to grow and grow in the coming months.

Quoted from Maringer

OK, then. Here's another chart to look at:



The chart was produced from modelling released earlier this month so we're only right at the start of the upward curve (cases have gone up about 10% over the past week). The initial data on the 'Indian' B.1.617.2 variant indicates it may be up to 60% more transmissible than the 'Kent' B.1.1.7 variant which has already spread to become one of the most dominant in many countries. The Kent variant is in decline because of vaccination and the restrictions still in place. The Indian variant is rocketing upwards despite the vaccination and restrictions still in place.

Fully vaccinated people have very good protection against the Kent, Indian and most of the other variants so it isn't likely that we'll see the same huge numbers of elderly people dying from the next wave of infections. There will still be a lot of deaths in older folk but nothing like the same level as during the past two waves. However, about 60% of adults in the UK aren't fully vaccinated yet so many of the hospitalisations will be amongst younger adults without any pre-existing health conditions. Even if only a very small proportion of those infected require hospitalisation, it will collapse the NHS. This is why the herd immunity plan initially mooted was quickly reversed during March 2020.

I think another lockdown, or at least very tight restrictions are almost certainly going to be required. This should be the last one, however, as the vaccinations should give enough of the population enough immunity to ensure that we're not faced with a collapse of the healthcare system in future waves of infections caused by new variants. In fact, it is likely that this coronavirus will eventually become just another endemic cold virus of the type most of us catch every year or two. Whether you develop your immunity to it through repeated infections or vaccination won't really matter. The risk of death from vaccination is obviously much lower so that's my choice.

Must be said, I'm surprised to see there is still so much, "It's just like the flu" thinking going on out there despite the vast amount of data refuting it. Each to their own, I suppose.

More projections and modelling have any been proved correct yet?
The 4000 deaths a day projection has been my favourite so far😂

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Maringer, it’s great that you provide all this information. Very useful. If you’re not brain dead or a conspiracy nut who won’t accept real evidence yet are happy to hoover up any old nonsense. I fear with Humbocod it’s a waste of effort, but for anyone who is uncertain it’s helpful information.

Feel free to point out the nonsense lab rat.

Quoted from Humbercod

Besides you must have some serious issues to post about family members in this way just for a bit of click bait.  

Absolutely. Grief is a serious issue. It’s easier and perhaps preferable to distract, deflect and refocus on something more abstract, than deal with the awful pain of losing someone they love.

You may well be right and there may be more to it than meets the eye but, if I’m to be persuaded I’d be looking at a threshold of evidence more reliable than is available right now.

My personal view is that the risk of having the vaccine is significantly less than getting COVID-19. I suppose we each must make a decision that we’re comfortable with.

Quoted from Humbercod

More projections and modelling have any been proved correct yet?
The 4000 deaths a day projection has been my favourite so far😂

Correct.
Has any of the modelling been analyzed for accuracy??
One media story runs with the variant been the most transmissible ever then its no more transmissible than any other?

4000 deaths a day. If we didn't lockdown. Now, I know it's over a year ago now, but I'm pretty sure that I remember some sort of a lockdown thing occurring back in March 2020. Anybody else?

It's mind-numbing idiocy like this which made me give it a break on here last year.

The modelling said we could have 4000 deaths a day if we didn't lockdown. We locked down. There were over 1,000 deaths a day for some time. What is so fricking confusing about this that it could make anybody poo poo the modelling and, in their crystal ball, decide it must have been wrong?!? Was it something perhaps you read by written by some random bloke on facebook?

I see another quote from Humbercod earlier today, "Likewise all those elderly frail people on the wards all died of Covid so we were being told."

Well, yes, they did die of Covid-19. You can't imagine away the excess deaths figures in this country and all around the world since the start of 2020. Elderly frail folk don't suddenly start dying in much greater numbers than usual without good reason and then stop dying in greater numbers when they have been vaccinated. You're actually arguing against yourself with that comment which is even more idiotic! On the one hand, you're doing some anti-vaxx nonsense by scaremongering against the risks of the vaccines - going as far as to say "so called vaccine" and then, when it is pointed out that an elderly frail person who was vaccinated almost certainly died of natural causes because of the age and frailty, claim that this shows people weren't dying of Covid-19 in any case!

Illogical, doesn't even start to describe the way some people have got themselves thinking about this stuff.

I thought about being more polite in this post, but, to be honest, what would the point actually be? I can link to reasoned comments from experts in the field analysing publicly-available data, the validity of which is absolutely incontrovertible, until the cows come home. All that will happen is the contents of the post will be ignored and instead there will be some sort of risible nonsensical excrement regurgitated from the bowels of the internet.

Truth be told, I'm embarrassed that I've wasted my time on the dimwitted trolling. See ya.

Quoted from Humbercod

Feel free to point out the nonsense lab rat.

I’d just say any post made by you on this subject is likely to be full of it. It’s pointless being specific with you like Maringer has done. He’s presented loads of facts and evidence and you have no logical answer to any of it. You are either thick as pigs hit or are deliberately obtuse because it doesn’t suit your prejudice.

Hopefully the nonsense you spout won’t influence anyone hard of thinking.

Quoted from Stadium

Correct.
Has any of the modelling been analyzed for accuracy??
One media story runs with the variant been the most transmissible ever then its no more transmissible than any other?

How would you analyse the modelling for accuracy then Einstein?

As your second ‘sentence’, it doesn’t even make sense. It literally does not make sense.

The way I look at covid is that it is a known killer and when it came out nobody knew anything about it. It could kill people directly or indirectly and there was no known cure.

10/12 months later along comes vaccinations to help. So now we have a personal choice to have a 2 part jab or not.

Consider the analogy that you have to run through 10 feet (3 meters) of white heat fire to save your life. The likelyhood is that you may die in the heat but then comes along a heat-protective suite that's up to 95% effective. Do you not bother to put the suit on and hope for the best, or put some of it on just in case it might help, or do you fully protect yourself in the knowledge that you will more than likely survive?

Unfortunately, some people will still die with covid or reaction to the vaccine, but as more people are vaccinated the less the percentage that die will decrease.

Quoted from Maringer

4000 deaths a day. If we didn't lockdown. Now, I know it's over a year ago now, but I'm pretty sure that I remember some sort of a lockdown thing occurring back in March 2020. Anybody else?

It's mind-numbing idiocy like this which made me give it a break on here last year.

The modelling said we could have 4000 deaths a day if we didn't lockdown. We locked down. There were over 1,000 deaths a day for some time. What is so fricking confusing about this that it could make anybody poo poo the modelling and, in their crystal ball, decide it must have been wrong?!? Was it something perhaps you read by written by some random bloke on facebook?

UK statistics authority
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334.amp

Quoted Text

Isee another quote from Humbercod earlier today, "Likewise all those elderly frail people on the wards all died of Covid so we were being told."

Well, yes, they did die of Covid-19.

Sorry to urine on your bonfire but you’re wrong again! We already had 1 urgent review being carried out after scientists rightly claimed our death figures have been greatly exaggerated...being run over by a bus with a positive test does not mean you died of Covid.

Quoted Text

experts in the field analysing publicly-available data, the validity of which is absolutely incontrovertible, until the cows come home.

Unsurprisingly naivety once again...the likes of Safe and WHO are being proven wrong time and time again with their models and false predictions. You’ve probably quoted Neil Ferguson on here at some point😂  

For someone who is so anti-Tory it does make me smile the way you tow the Mat Hancock line😀

Quoted from KingstonMariner

How would you analyse the modelling for accuracy then Einstein?

As your second ‘sentence’, it doesn’t even make sense. It literally does not make sense.

Don't really understand your first response???
Maybe compare the predicted modelling to actual figures which have been published
i.e.:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-innacuracoes-in-the-sage-models/

As for the second part, its quite simple really:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/india-variant-dominant-chris-whitty-b1847808.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/19/indian-variant-may-not-transmissible-scientists-say-cases-india/

https://delano.lu/d/detail/news/indian-variant-no-more-dangerous/214558

Quoted from Stadium

Don't really understand your first response???
Maybe compare the predicted modelling to actual figures which have been published
i.e.:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-innacuracoes-in-the-sage-models/

As for the second part, its quite simple really:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/india-variant-dominant-chris-whitty-b1847808.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/19/indian-variant-may-not-transmissible-scientists-say-cases-india/

https://delano.lu/d/detail/news/indian-variant-no-more-dangerous/214558

Have you actually read any of that and used critical thinking?

None of it explains your nonsensical sentence in the previous post.

And you haven’t answered the second question either. I suspect you can’t. You can’t even put a dimple sentence together let alone explain the case you’re trying to make. Putting a bunch of random links together isn’t making the case. I’ll take the British medical and scientific establishment over the crap you spout any day.

It would be great if you anti-vaxxers and Covid sceptics  would all gather on an island, we could leave you with a few variants of the virus and see how you got on, wondering who was going to get ill next, who was going to die and who would suffer uncertain long-term ill health. You’re all so confident you know what you’re talking about.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Have you actually read any of that and used critical thinking?

None of it explains your nonsensical sentence in the previous post.

And you haven’t answered the second question either. I suspect you can’t. You can’t even put a dimple sentence together let alone explain the case you’re trying to make. Putting a bunch of random links together isn’t making the case. I’ll take the British medical and scientific establishment over the crap you spout any day.

It would be great if you anti-vaxxers and Covid sceptics  would all gather on an island, we could leave you with a few variants of the virus and see how you got on, wondering who was going to get ill next, who was going to die and who would suffer uncertain long-term ill health. You’re all so confident you know what you’re talking about.

Oh dear,you seem somewhat rattled.
" You can’t even put a dimple sentence together"   ;D ;D ;D
Please point out were I've stated anti vaccine or portraying covid sceptic tendencies?
Unfortunately you seem to rather blinkered and unable to see all sides of the debate & resort to childish insults.
I've provided evidence to both of your points,I'm sorry if your struggling to understand.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/media/2021/may/27/bbc-presenter-lisa-shaw-died-of-blood-clot-after-astrazeneca-jab-family-says

FFS 44 fit and healthy and dead for no reason.

Neil Ferguson has spoken! June 21st now looking at risk.

Quoted from Humbercod

Neil Ferguson has spoken! June 21st now looking at risk.

Oh but hold on :

Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University and a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), told Times Radio that the people being admitted to hospital are "predominantly unvaccinated" and it was "hard to see any reason" why June 21 could not go ahead.

🤣🤣

Quoted from Stadium

Oh but hold on :

Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University and a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), told Times Radio that the people being admitted to hospital are "predominantly unvaccinated" and it was "hard to see any reason" why June 21 could not go ahead.

🤣🤣

Bloody anti-vaxxers😂

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57260463 Here’s an example of a proper public spirited man. The sort you want on your side. Someone with moral fibre. One with confidence in rationality and real science.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57260463

Quoted from KingstonMariner

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57260463 Here’s an example of a proper public spirited man. The sort you want on your side. Someone with moral fibre. One with confidence in rationality and real science.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57260463

In the words of Victor Meldrew 'I couldn't believe it'.

Kingston praising Jesus Christ, whose life story has shone into the heart of Rev Tim Hatwell. A proper public-spirited Christian who you would want on your side. A man who has faith and belief in Jesus Christ.

There is a scripture that goes along the lines of 'There will be joy and singing in heaven at the repentance on a sinner'.

I sincerely hope that joy will be extended to you for pointing out the virtues of a Christian.

Had my 2nd jab on Sunday. No side effects at all so far, not even an aching arm.

That’s good news Les, is that the AstraZeneca jab? I have mine Saturday (2nd Jab) I was lousy after the first Jab.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

That’s good news Les, is that the AstraZeneca jab? I have mine Saturday (2nd Jab) I was lousy after the first Jab.

I've had both my jabs, A Z with no side effects from either. Hope all goes well for you. ;)

Quoted from cmackenzie4

That’s good news Les, is that the AstraZeneca jab? I have mine Saturday (2nd Jab) I was lousy after the first Jab.

Yes Chris. After my first jab my arm ached really badly, not the day after but the day after that but this time no side effects at all. Hope yours goes well for you mate.

Professor Lockdown wheeled out again.

Boris Johnson today gave the biggest hint yet that the June 21 'Freedom Day' will be pushed back because of the rapid spread of the Indian Covid variant as he admitted 'everybody can see cases are going up' and accepted there were 'arguments on both sides'.

The Prime Minister's comments mark a softening in his lockdown-ending stance after previously saying there is nothing in the data to suggest the date should be delayed.

It came after the UK recorded another 7,540 positive tests in the biggest week-on-week spike since February, as the mutant strain continues to spiral.

Speaking at the G7 summit in Cornwall the Prime Minister said: 'What everybody can see very clearly is that cases are going up and in some places hospitalisations are going up. What we need to assess is the extent to which the vaccine rollout, which has been phenomenal, has built up enough protection in the population in order for us to go ahead to the next stage.

'So that is what we will be looking at and there are arguments being made one way or another. But we will be driven by the data, we will be looking at that and setting it out on Monday.'

However, just hours after Mr Johnson spoke, one of his top SAGE advisers Professor Neil Ferguson dashed hopes of the roadmap coming to an end in two weeks' time when he said scientists need up to three weeks of data before they can accurately work out how dangerous the Indian variant is and how bad the third wave could be.  

The virus modelling expert, who has guided the Government through the pandemic and earned himself the nickname 'Professor Lockdown', said scientists still don't know how much faster the variant spreads, how much more deadly it is nor how big the third wave will be.

The chance that scientific advisers, ministers and Boris Johnson – who committed to 'data not dates' – will sign off on June 21 without this information is slim to none. An extra three weeks to collect the figures plus the PM's one-week notice for a change in restrictions suggests that, best case scenario, it will be early July before Step Four of the roadmap is taken.

Professor Ferguson said: 'It's well within the possibility that we could see another, third, wave at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations, as the second wave. At least deaths, I think, would certainly be lower. It's hard to judge.'

The Imperial College London epidemiologist said researchers need to see how many people are admitted to hospital and die as a result of the current surge in infections.

Oh, look, here's another academic using all that pesky data stuff to explain what is going on:



Just a few charts to read through which will hopefully convince the doubters that, why yes, we are heading for another huge wave of infections and hospitalisations. The good thing is that there are likely to be fewer deaths due to the lower age spread - perhaps 20 or 25%, if the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed. A lot more if it is. Not to mention potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of children and young adults left with 'Long Covid' symptoms for many months.

Oddly enough, the current data is pretty much exactly the same as was modelled by Sage back on 12th May, an analysis which the politicians somewhat bizarrely completely ignored:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-12-may-2021

They'll row back on the 21st June date for certain, will probably tighten restrictions to some degree but, as always, too little, too late. Goodbye any hopes for an almost 'normal' summer.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

That’s good news Les, is that the AstraZeneca jab? I have mine Saturday (2nd Jab) I was lousy after the first Jab.

Hope everything went ok on Saturday? :)

Quoted from Maringer

Oh, look, here's another academic using all that pesky data stuff to explain what is going on:

Tweet 1402695567030038530 will appear here...

Just a few charts to read through which will hopefully convince the doubters that, why yes, we are heading for another huge wave of infections and hospitalisations. The good thing is that there are likely to be fewer deaths due to the lower age spread - perhaps 20 or 25%, if the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed. A lot more if it is. Not to mention potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of children and young adults left with 'Long Covid' symptoms for many months.

Oddly enough, the current data is pretty much exactly the same as was modelled by Sage back on 12th May, an analysis which the politicians somewhat bizarrely completely ignored:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-12-may-2021

They'll row back on the 21st June date for certain, will probably tighten restrictions to some degree but, as always, too little, too late. Goodbye any hopes for an almost 'normal' summer.

You can say ‘Goodbye’ or make a stand and say ‘No’ Otherwise this never ends, the last time I wear a mask in a public place is the 20th of June. I remember seeing advertisements for Covid Marshall’s 3 year contracts in May when we were supposed to be coming to the end🤔
Back to normal was never in the script.

It’s now obviously clear that If we can’t even get back to normal in the middle of summer then it’s not going to happen, Covid is here to stay it’s time we started living with it, so what if cases are rising the vulnerable are supposed to be protected. Disclaimer as long as they carry on with the upcoming boosters as experimental vaccine doesn’t last.

Mixed feelings about all the fit and healthy people who complied with the government took the jab in the belief they’d be getting their lives back...What was that famous Ronald Reagan quote again?

The government will drag this out until autumn/ then it will be back to “Lockdown to save the NHS” this is the new normal only if we let it.

Quoted from Humbercod

You can say ‘Goodbye’ or make a stand and say ‘No’ Otherwise this never ends, the last time I wear a mask in a public place is the 20th of June. I remember seeing advertisements for Covid Marshall’s 3 year contracts in May when we were supposed to be coming to the end🤔
Back to normal was never in the script.

It’s now obviously clear that If we can’t even get back to normal in the middle of summer then it’s not going to happen, Covid is here to stay it’s time we started living with it, so what if cases are rising the vulnerable are supposed to be protected. Disclaimer as long as they carry on with the upcoming boosters as experimental vaccine doesn’t last.

Mixed feelings about all the fit and healthy people who complied with the government took the jab in the belief they’d be getting their lives back...What was that famous Ronald Reagan quote again?

The government will drag this out until autumn/ then it will be back to “Lockdown to save the NHS” this is the new normal only if we let it.

Whilst it’s fair to say we are both poles apart with our politics I am inclined to agree with what you’re saying.

You can show me data all you want, the last 18 months has told us that they have had issues with data anyway so I’m still not convinced by that.

The public’s somewhat non response to this constant balderdash and whataboutery from the government is alarming. False promises and rhetoric like ‘freedom day’ is baffling. People have swallowed it up without so much as murmer. Credibility for any of it is zilch too when you see things like the G7 all stood happily having a cocktail party behaving in the normal way you would rather than socially distanced or choosing to wear a mask.

The mask thing has baffled me from the start, at the so called height of it all we didn’t need one, then they introduced them and now it’s just half arsed. I spent a week in hospital last week visiting/staying over for one reason or another. Never once enforced a mask, nor did they insist I wear a hospital one, just the tatty black paper one I’ve had since about September.

I’m done with it all now, I had a vaccine out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours sorting It out for all the staff, they got mine wrong along with others, some staff were so ill they couldn’t have both parts. Now there’s suggestions that the vaccine may not be as effective. It’s just all very tiresome now.

Quoted from DB

Hope everything went ok on Saturday? :)

Hi Dave

I had to miss my appointment Saturday due to work commitments, the jab has had to be rescheduled for today at 11.30, I’m sure I’ll be ok mate.

Chris

Quoted from aldi_01

Whilst it’s fair to say we are both poles apart with our politics I am inclined to agree with what you’re saying.

You can show me data all you want, the last 18 months has told us that they have had issues with data anyway so I’m still not convinced by that.

The public’s somewhat non response to this constant balderdash and whataboutery from the government is alarming. False promises and rhetoric like ‘freedom day’ is baffling. People have swallowed it up without so much as murmer. Credibility for any of it is zilch too when you see things like the G7 all stood happily having a cocktail party behaving in the normal way you would rather than socially distanced or choosing to wear a mask.

The mask thing has baffled me from the start, at the so called height of it all we didn’t need one, then they introduced them and now it’s just half arsed. I spent a week in hospital last week visiting/staying over for one reason or another. Never once enforced a mask, nor did they insist I wear a hospital one, just the tatty black paper one I’ve had since about September.

I’m done with it all now, I had a vaccine out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours sorting It out for all the staff, they got mine wrong along with others, some staff were so ill they couldn’t have both parts. Now there’s suggestions that the vaccine may not be as effective. It’s just all very tiresome now.

Let’s just forget the Covid passport it’s the G7 passport we all need!
Our so called leaders are now literally taking the urine!

Quoted from Humbercod

Let’s just forget the Covid passport it’s the G7 passport we all need!
Our so called leaders are now literally taking the urine!

Same every time they meet. Lots of words and photos and then they all go home and do very little if anything at all.

Quoted from DB

Same every time they meet. Lots of words and photos and then they all go home and do very little if anything at all.

But they have ignored the rules and done what rich and powerful people do best…whatever the intercourse they want…

Quoted from DB

Same every time they meet. Lots of words and photos and then they all go home and do very little if anything at all.

They did more than you realise DB. They showed us perfectly what a bunch of feckless useless oxygen thief’s they really are. 😀

Quoted from aldi_01

Whilst it’s fair to say we are both poles apart with our politics I am inclined to agree with what you’re saying.

You can show me data all you want, the last 18 months has told us that they have had issues with data anyway so I’m still not convinced by that.

The public’s somewhat non response to this constant balderdash and whataboutery from the government is alarming. False promises and rhetoric like ‘freedom day’ is baffling. People have swallowed it up without so much as murmer. Credibility for any of it is zilch too when you see things like the G7 all stood happily having a cocktail party behaving in the normal way you would rather than socially distanced or choosing to wear a mask.

The mask thing has baffled me from the start, at the so called height of it all we didn’t need one, then they introduced them and now it’s just half arsed. I spent a week in hospital last week visiting/staying over for one reason or another. Never once enforced a mask, nor did they insist I wear a hospital one, just the tatty black paper one I’ve had since about September.

I’m done with it all now, I had a vaccine out of respect for my boss who had to spend hours sorting It out for all the staff, they got mine wrong along with others, some staff were so ill they couldn’t have both parts. Now there’s suggestions that the vaccine may not be as effective. It’s just all very tiresome now.

The mask wearing seems to so inconsistent.
In the US the CDC has declared not necessary after full vaccination.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57160923

Quoted from Stadium

The mask wearing seems to so inconsistent.
In the US the CDC has declared not necessary after full vaccination.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57160923

As a specialist setting both my staff and my leadership team were adamant we weren’t going to wear masks, even if our trust pushed for it.

We haven’t, we had one case, that could have swung either way and was likely picked up at a local football training session. The staff member wasn’t ill and literally did the test Becauee the entire team did.

A friend in a similar role to me works in a school that have gone to town on PPE and health and safety…had multiple outbreaks.

As I say, the hospital weren’t bothered a week or so ago when I was in there…that told me everything.

Skimmed through a few minutes of it (you expect me to waste 30 minutes without any sort of a precis of the contents?) and my thoughts are, "What a nutjob". He's obviously deep, deep into the anti-vaxx propaganda and needs to spend a bit less time on facebook.

Judging by the comments on YouTube, he's got plenty of fellow travellers who have read and believe the same stuff, many of whom are paranoid enough to think that some sort of a government conspiracy will make him and his family disappear.

An "Adverse reaction" from the Yellow Card system is anything from a sore arm, to a headache, to the rare thrombosis which we know has killed a few hundred people. Also anaphylaxis for some unlucky folk though I'm not sure if anybody has died after that or not as it is something which is specifically looked out for - it's why they ask you to hang around for 15 minutes after the jab. After my first dose of the AZ vaccine, I had a mild, persistent headache for a few weeks (not enough to take painkillers, mind) and saw a doctor a week after the vaccination as the information about the CVST clots was just being reported. He assured me that I'd really have known about it if it had been CVST so I shouldn't be worried. I was fine a few weeks later and haven't had similar symptoms after the first dose. Not sure whether or not the doctor reported my headache through the Yellow Card system or not, but he might well have done as it was certainly related to the vaccination. You also have to note that you don't need a doctor to make a Yellow Card report - anybody can do it. There's a web link which is easy to access. I didn't bother personally as I suspected it was just a temporary issue and was assured by my visit to the doctor.

Unfortunately, the policeman in question is somewhat confused about the Yellow Card system and the reporting of deaths - deaths reported through the Yellow Card system aren't certainly caused by the vaccination and, in the vast majority of cases, aren't. The policeman doesn't have a grasp of probability in large numbers. When you're vaccinating tens of millions of people, including elderly and those already seriously unwell, a significant number of people will drop dead within a number of days of vaccination from a multitude of causes. They would almost certainly have dropped dead in a similar manner from the same cause even if not vaccinated. However, a lot more would absolutely certainly have died following infection with Covid-19 if they hadn't been vaccinated.

Anyway, as the oncoming wave of infections continues to escalate, there was some other very unwelcome information published in a research preprint the other day. Brain scans of those before and after infection seem to show that Covid-19 is neurotropic - it shrinks parts of your brain. At a significant enough level that it could certainly explain the "brain fog" so many people report post-Covid:



Brain matter doesn't grow back, although it the brain is flexible enough to adapt. Raises the question as to whether repeated infections with future variants will lead to repeated neurotropism which would obviously be a massive issue? I presume these findings were based on pre-Delta infections but you'd assume that Delta will have similar effects to the earlier variants.

I wasn't previously too concerned about my young children potentially catching a respiratory virus which almost certainly wouldn't cause them any harm. Needless to say, I'm rather concerned about them catching a virus which could affect the development of their brains. And our government is doing literally nothing to try to halt the spread of the virus in our schools.

The evidence of some of the posters on here Maringer is that neurotropism has already affected people. Mainly the anti-vacxers, eh Humbo 😆

Quoted from Maringer

Skimmed through a few minutes of it (you expect me to waste 30 minutes without any sort of a precis of the contents?) and my thoughts are, "What a nutjob". He's obviously deep, deep into the anti-vaxx propaganda and needs to spend a bit less time on facebook.

Judging by the comments on YouTube, he's got plenty of fellow travellers who have read and believe the same stuff, many of whom are paranoid enough to think that some sort of a government conspiracy will make him and his family disappear.

An "Adverse reaction" from the Yellow Card system is anything from a sore arm, to a headache, to the rare thrombosis which we know has killed a few hundred people. Also anaphylaxis for some unlucky folk though I'm not sure if anybody has died after that or not as it is something which is specifically looked out for - it's why they ask you to hang around for 15 minutes after the jab. After my first dose of the AZ vaccine, I had a mild, persistent headache for a few weeks (not enough to take painkillers, mind) and saw a doctor a week after the vaccination as the information about the CVST clots was just being reported. He assured me that I'd really have known about it if it had been CVST so I shouldn't be worried. I was fine a few weeks later and haven't had similar symptoms after the first dose. Not sure whether or not the doctor reported my headache through the Yellow Card system or not, but he might well have done as it was certainly related to the vaccination. You also have to note that you don't need a doctor to make a Yellow Card report - anybody can do it. There's a web link which is easy to access. I didn't bother personally as I suspected it was just a temporary issue and was assured by my visit to the doctor.

Unfortunately, the policeman in question is somewhat confused about the Yellow Card system and the reporting of deaths - deaths reported through the Yellow Card system aren't certainly caused by the vaccination and, in the vast majority of cases, aren't. The policeman doesn't have a grasp of probability in large numbers. When you're vaccinating tens of millions of people, including elderly and those already seriously unwell, a significant number of people will drop dead within a number of days of vaccination from a multitude of causes. They would almost certainly have dropped dead in a similar manner from the same cause even if not vaccinated. However, a lot more would absolutely certainly have died following infection with Covid-19 if they hadn't been vaccinated.

Anyway, as the oncoming wave of infections continues to escalate, there was some other very unwelcome information published in a research preprint the other day. Brain scans of those before and after infection seem to show that Covid-19 is neurotropic - it shrinks parts of your brain. At a significant enough level that it could certainly explain the "brain fog" so many people report post-Covid:

Tweet 1405190209810178051 will appear here...

Brain matter doesn't grow back, although it the brain is flexible enough to adapt. Raises the question as to whether repeated infections with future variants will lead to repeated neurotropism which would obviously be a massive issue? I presume these findings were based on pre-Delta infections but you'd assume that Delta will have similar effects to the earlier variants.

I wasn't previously too concerned about my young children potentially catching a respiratory virus which almost certainly wouldn't cause them any harm. Needless to say, I'm rather concerned about them catching a virus which could affect the development of their brains. And our government is doing literally nothing to try to halt the spread of the virus in our schools.

The ex-policeman in question MikeSexton is a now a credible crime novelist, but I didn’t expect anything less slanderous from you then ‘Nutjob! The left really do have me in tears of laughter at times with their narrow mindedness, Can’t remember if it was you or someone with a similar mindset bringing pro-remain Russel Brand into a Brexit debate, as if he was the the voice of the people, a beacon of common sense, anti-establishment…. right on.
But wait he now has a youtube channel in which he question the vaccines roll out, especially for the young and healthy, question the real motives of big Pharma, anti-establishment yet he’s now being called a  nutjob, conspiracy theorist 😂

I love how you play down the reported deaths after taking the vaccine currently (Pfizer 421, AstraZeneca 885)  without ever questioning the so called Covid deaths that have since been found to be false. I will continue to take the dwindling number of Covid death seriously whilst at the same time an ever increasing amount of hospital admissions from the experimental vaccines, the ever increasing number of deaths from the experimental vaccines/ gene therapy.

You talk about nut jobs and conspiracy theorists yet you come on here and talk about shrinking brains as a credible Covid side effect, Wow!
You’ve blown me away, I’ve lost count at the amount of times you’ve criticised the Tory governments over the years, it’s fair to say you’re not a fan and yet here you are doing the government job spreading their fear mongering propaganda like some demented disciple, wow shrinking brains quick get the jabs based on a small study on (severe Covid) that’s yet to be peer reviewed wow.

You my friend are what’s described as conditioned! Toe the line swallowing the BS wether it’s global warming or COVID it doesn’t matter, when I read the book 1984 I remember thinking 1. it was excrement and 2. That  people are not that dumb they would never let a world like that develop, well I’ve been proven wrong. It’s supposed to be so called freedom day today and yet people are still walking around in their muzzles, we all know they don’t work our scientists know it, our Royals know it, heck even our leaders know it as they proved recently, but people still wear them why? because they’ve been told to.. baah

Now then regarding children you seem a bit muddled, firstly there is no evidence to say children are spreading the virus in schools or anywhere else. Not 1 teacher has taken a day off with COVID where my kids go. You seem ok with your children having the experimental gene therapy so that their brains won’t shrink wow, but you don’t mention the increasing reports of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) in adolescence and young adults never mind before the rollout on our young children.
The medium or long term side effects are just not being considered this would be pure recklessness, we’ve seen it before with the dodgy swine flue vaccine rushed out and we ended up with over a thousand cases of devastating brain injury’s. The current evidence clearly shows that the risk v benefit calculation does not support pumping experimental chemicals into innocent kids.

So there you have it keep obeying, prepare for more lockdowns, and get ready for your booster jabs and ADE😕

Quoted from KingstonMariner

The evidence of some of the posters on here Maringer is that neurotropism has already affected people. Mainly the anti-vacxers, eh Humbo 😆

Never been antivax I’ve taken vaccines all my life.
Never been a sheep open my eyes all my life.
Freedom means having responsibility for our own life’s
Enjoy your time with Maringer in 1984😵‍💫

Humbercod, it doesn't interest me that this former policeman now writes stories for a living. So does Dan Brown but I wouldn't go looking to him for scientific analysis. Regardless of how well he can write a story, the ex-copper doesn't appear to have any real understanding of science or statistical analysis. Much like yourself, in fact, as you still seem to be confusing deaths reported through the Yellow Card system as being undoubtedly caused directly by the vaccines. They are not. Let me repeat, the vast majority of the deaths you are talking about will have nothing at all to do with the vaccination.

If you look at a substantial proportion of the population (and the older and less well cohorts, especially), a great many otherwise healthy people each year simply drop dead at any given moment due to natural causes i.e. congenital problems, undiagnosed illnesses, strokes, heart attacks, etc. These natural deaths are just background 'noise' when looking for serious side effects from vaccines or other medical treatments and the Yellow Card system is specifically there to look for underlying actual side-effects. Such as the very rare blood clots with the adenovirus vector vaccines which we know about and emerging signs that the mRNA vaccines can, on extremely rare occasions cause (usually treatable) events of myocarditis in young adults.

I'm surprised that you should dismiss out of hand the study (not yet peer reviewed, obviously) comparing scans which apparently shows neurotropism caused by Covid. Here's a link to that preprint, by the way:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf

Note that the whole point of the UK Biobank project is, and I quote, "improving the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of a wide range of serious and life-threatening illnesses". This paper, seems to be an ideal use of the pre-Covid Biobank data and the findings seem pretty stark to me though, of course, we'll have to wait until it is peer reviewed before we can be absolutely sure. The authors are working for respected institutions, so safe to say it isn't a spurious paper aimed at gaining attention and funding, as so many are.

Have a quick skim through the paper and let me know your thoughts about it. You can just read the initial abstract. Ought to take you a few minutes. Take a look and have your say.

This is a novel coronavirus and we still don't know half of what it can do to some people despite the millions who have already died from it across the world and the millions still suffering the aftermath of the disease (around 1 million people with 'Long Covid' in the UK at present). The fact that we have vaccines which are still effective against the current variants is good news, but unless we can shut down transmission, it is only likely to be a matter of time before even more dangerous variants arrive. The absolute disinformation about the current vaccination programme from the conspiracy theorists out there is pretty shameful in my view.

My children are young enough that they'll not be getting any vaccine in the near future so that isn't a consideration at present. I am convinced that the mRNA vaccines are safe given that many hundreds of millions of doses have been given around the world and there have only been a vanishingly small number of problems reported. However, it wouldn't surprise me if young children ended up being given other vaccine types next year. We'll have to wait and see what happens in that regard.

Interesting you should lever 'Global warming' into the conversation for some unknown reason. We do have incontrovertible numerical evidence that warming is rapidly occurring and, heck, if you insist on relying on anecdote, just think back to all we've all seen over the past couple of decades. I do believe Anthropogenic Climate Change is occurring and the data is all on my side (not to mention the majority of scientists).

Putting that to one side, I'm rather baffled that you think there is no evidence that children are spreading the Delta variant in schools and then on into the community! Where are you getting your news from?

Here's the latest round of REACT-1 data:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/findings-from-covid-19-round-12-react-1-study-published

Here's a snippet from the report:

Quoted Text

prevalence is highest in 5 to 12 and 18 to 24 year olds, rising from 0.16% to 0.35% and from 0.10% to 0.36% respectively
prevalence in those aged 5 to 49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% compared with those aged 50 and above at 0.08%

Here's PHE from 3rd June:



Plenty of evidence out there for increasing numbers of outbreaks in schools to the extent I'm not going to bother doing your googling for you. Just have a quick search.

Latest Government data indicates Delta has a secondary attack rate around 41% higher than Alpha (discussion starts on page 26):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf

With this in mind, of course children are catching and spreading the virus in schools and then taking it home!

The swine flu narcolepsy issues for one vaccine type were a sad situation. Thankfully, it doesn't appear that there is any similar signal with the mRNA vaccines that has appeared. Similarly, no evidence of ADE despite tens of thousands of confirmed reinfections which I'm sure you know. Luckily, work on SARS vaccine candidates showed the areas where ADE was most likely to occur and the development of the Covid-19 vaccines was carried out to avoid these.

The technology behind mRNA vaccines has been in development for decades so it's not such a big jump in reality, even if the timeline has been advanced by a few years due to the emergency of this pandemic. It's no coincidence that both Pfizer and Moderna were able to produce their mRNA vaccines pretty much at the same time. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that CureVac's mRNA vaccine is effective enough (reported 47% efficacy in their recently-announced trial results) and it remains to be seen if the Sanofi mRNA vaccine works well enough or if the Chinese one works as well.

It's a real shame that Novavax have encountered manufacturing issues as their recombinant protein vaccine is a more standard type and it also seems to be very effective. I'm sort of hoping that this is the one I'll be given as a booster this autumn, but I'll be happy to take whichever one I'm given. I'll be very confident that it is several orders of magnitude safer than actually catching Covid.

P.S. The fact that you think taking a vaccine to help curtail a devastating global pandemic is somehow making the world '1984-ish' is really ridiculous. However, it's the sort of thing that people who get their news from certain places on facebook seem to think so I realise that debunking your various points probably won't make any difference to what you've persuaded yourself is the truth.

I prefer data and evidence personally, but each to their own.

Out of all the people who needed hospital treatment due to covid in May - 99.9% of them had not been double vaccinated..

Whether you agree with it all or not, just have the jab, and crack on IMO.

Quoted from Jarmo.Is.God

Out of all the people who needed hospital treatment due to covid in May - 99.9% of them had not been double vaccinated..

Whether you agree with it all or not, just have the jab, and crack on IMO.

How many needed genuine hospital treatment?

Good article detailing SAGE's failure during the pandemeic.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/How-did-Sage-get-it-so
How did Sage get it so wrong?

Professor Neil Ferguson struck an unusually optimistic tone this week. With just one Covid death reported on Monday, and infection levels at an eight-month low in the UK, the architect of the original lockdown said: ‘The data is very encouraging and very much in line with what we expected.’ The first half of that statement is certainly true; the second half much less so.

As an unofficial member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (he resigned in an official capacity after breaking lockdown rules) Prof Ferguson has been responsible for much of the pessimistic modelling during the pandemic. For example, his team at Imperial College were predicting as late as 30 March that only 45 per cent of the population would be protected against severe disease by 21 June, even under ‘optimistic’ assumptions. In fact, hard evidence based on the Office of National Statistics measurement shows that 68 per cent of the population already had antibodies against Covid-19 by 7 April, which meant that either they had received at least one vaccination or they had recovered from Covid-19 (or indeed both). Whatever the case, they would certainly have a fair degree of immunity, and thus be protected from serious illness.


The growth in antibodies in England's population could be predicted using an uncomplicated computer model, so how did Imperial get it so wrong? The PCCF model I developed at the University of Bristol was able to match to within a percentage point the ONS figure on 7 April - and suggests that 74 per cent of the adult population had antibodies by 2 May. As you can see in the below graph, the PCCF antibodies predictor in red closely tracked the ONS upper and lower antibody ranges from last summer onwards. The chart shows that three quarters of England’s total population, including children, now have protection and, as a minimum, won’t suffer serious illness.


This figure is, of course, rising every day as more people are vaccinated - a process still proceeding apace.


Although Ferguson’s team at Imperial College has been notable for its pessimistic predictions, it has not been alone. One modelling study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which also contributed to Sage's interim roadmap assessment in advance of the next step out of lockdown, assumed that two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine would only give 31 per cent protection against infection and one dose just 72 per cent against dying from the disease. These are bewilderingly low figures, not only because of the much more encouraging field trial evidence that had been around for months, but also because a large-scale study on the ground found that a single dose of the AZ vaccine was 94 per cent effective in preventing hospitalisation in Scotland.

The R-number: Sage’s abysmal track record

A key component that has contributed to Sage's doomsday outlook is the R-number (the number of people the average person with Covid will pass the virus onto. Below one and the epidemic shrinks; above one and it grows). The R-number estimate released by Sage is decided through online debate amongst a group of academics from 11 institutions, each of whom argues for their particular figure. Eventually some sort of judgement call is made, and agreed upper and lower values are made public each week. This process, pursued throughout the pandemic, is not scientific and has produced answers of dubious worth.

There are two main problems with Sage’s working. First, their estimates are 18 days out of date when they arrive. Second, even then, they are inaccurate. The ONS figures, seen as the gold standard, are in red below: pretty far from the Sage range of estimates (in blue).


It's a terrible shame that, for the last year, the government has not been guided by the ONS-based estimate of the R-number. Besides being fully scientific, ONS-based estimates also reduce the measurement delay, since they are only nine days in arrears when they arrive, as opposed to being 18 days out of date, like Sage's numbers. How different things could have been if the ONS data had been more influential on the government’s thinking. This would have allowed people greater freedom and minimised disruption to the economy while still keeping the NHS well protected.

Fundamentally, Prof Ferguson and his team - and the other Sage modellers - have overcomplicated their modelling, which is inappropriate when the data we have on the virus is very limited, as it always will be with any new disease. The additional complexity of the Sage models might be academically satisfying and might, indeed, seem impressive to politicians. But it has not brought greater accuracy. At Bristol University, the PCCF model has also been used to forecast the R-number - and has come far closer to the ONS.


In 2002 in the aftermath of the mad cow disease fiasco (which Prof Ferguson and others suggested could kill millions). I provided evidence to parliament alongside my colleague Professor Martin Newby. We had been sceptical of the dire figures bandied around by Imperial, which led to the slaughter of 4.4 million cattle and the adoption of pointless countermeasures costing billions of pounds after the risk to humans, always very small, had become negligible. Our straight-forward modelling showed, correctly, that variant-Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (the human form) would result in a few hundred deaths at most. As part of our evidence, we said:

The government's continued inability to give proper consideration to the spectrum of scientific opinion has been very expensive and must be a cause for major concern. It is clear that those tasked with devising policy – ministers and civil servants – need to adopt a more critical attitude to the scientific advice they are offered, even when that advice comes from one of their advisory bodies.
It is a shame that 18 years on this recommendation has not been heeded. Focusing on the advice of a handful of particular scientists, who all broadly agreed with one another, has meant that the PM has received inaccurate estimates of the R-number throughout the pandemic, despite it being an easy figure to measure. As we move forward, having defeated this pandemic, it is vital that lessons are learnt for next time.

Philip Thomas is professor of risk management at the University of Bristol

It's an article from a lockdown-sceptic academic (not an epidemiologist) who is paid by a lockdown-sceptic magazine to write articles and who is personally at odds with the Imperial College modelling which is carried out by epidemiologists. Without further information or analysis, it's not possible to say whether his points have any merit (paywall at the Spectator, of course). From the headlines of the articles visible behind the Spectator paywall, it seems an earlier article from him in April was saying that we didn't need to worry about a third wave.

Well, we're entering the third wave right now as the number of infections show. Infections up around 50% over the past week. Thankfully, the vaccines have broken the direct link to hospitalisations and deaths but a link still remains. The SAGE modelling for the coming wave expects between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths, even with the delay in dropping restrictions until 19th July. We'll be on 50,000 infections a day by then, almost certainly if the figures continue at the current growth rate. I suppose the end of term might start to slow things down by then. Hopefully, not too many of the tens of thousands of children who will contract the virus before then will suffer from 'long covid'. If they start making sure masks are worn in schools as is required pretty much everywhere else in the world, we might be able to cut the number.

Too many idiots still bleating. Should just shut the intercourse up, take the vaccine, wear masks, follow advice and stop whinging about not being able to go abroad on holiday. Will they never learn that the sooner we all knuckle down the sooner we can beat this thing.

They’d rather believe claptrap put out by no marks (often with a financial interest in coming out with said claptrap) than proper scientists with relevant expertise.

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

My mother died in hospital, alone, during the first wave. No visitors were allowed. Maximum of 12 at the funeral. As she had 5 children, 13 grandchildren and 7 great grandchildren, 5 living siblings etc, there were many not able to pay their respects in person. We didn’t whinge about the restrictions. We just got on with things as best we could and followed the rules. It looks like one of her siblings won’t be around long enough to go to the memorial whenever we can hold it. It’s sad. It’s disappointing. But we just get on with it. My wife hasn’t been able to see her mother since before the first lockdown. She doesn’t whinge about restrictions on her liberty. She just gets on with things.

Time all the deniers and conspiracy nuts and backsliders just knuckled down and grew up.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Too many idiots still bleating. Should just shut the intercourse up, take the vaccine, wear masks, follow advice and stop whinging about not being able to go abroad on holiday. Will they never learn that the sooner we all knuckle down the sooner we can beat this thing.

They’d rather believe claptrap put out by no marks (often with a financial interest in coming out with said claptrap) than proper scientists with relevant expertise.

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

My mother died in hospital, alone, during the first wave. No visitors were allowed. Maximum of 12 at the funeral. As she had 5 children, 13 grandchildren and 7 great grandchildren, 5 living siblings etc, there were many not able to pay their respects in person. We didn’t whinge about the restrictions. We just got on with things as best we could and followed the rules. It looks like one of her siblings won’t be around long enough to go to the memorial whenever we can hold it. It’s sad. It’s disappointing. But we just get on with it. My wife hasn’t been able to see her mother since before the first lockdown. She doesn’t whinge about restrictions on her liberty. She just gets on with things.

Time all the deniers and conspiracy nuts and backsliders just knuckled down and grew up.

My condolences to you and all your family.

There are too many selfish people around who have no respect for the life of others around them. They understand that covid has no respect for any age group and kills, but don't care.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Glad this lot were not alive in 1940.

In the last 18 months I’ve learned that Blitz spirit was a myth. I doubt people would have disco lights going off in their back garden during air raids but I bet they moaned like intercourse about the restrictions.

Quoted from Maringer

It's an article from a lockdown-sceptic academic (not an epidemiologist) who is paid by a lockdown-sceptic magazine to write articles and who is personally at odds with the Imperial College modelling which is carried out by epidemiologists. Without further information or analysis, it's not possible to say whether his points have any merit (paywall at the Spectator, of course). From the headlines of the articles visible behind the Spectator paywall, it seems an earlier article from him in April was saying that we didn't need to worry about a third wave.

Well, we're entering the third wave right now as the number of infections show. Infections up around 50% over the past week. Thankfully, the vaccines have broken the direct link to hospitalisations and deaths but a link still remains. The SAGE modelling for the coming wave expects between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths, even with the delay in dropping restrictions until 19th July. We'll be on 50,000 infections a day by then, almost certainly if the figures continue at the current growth rate. I suppose the end of term might start to slow things down by then. Hopefully, not too many of the tens of thousands of children who will contract the virus before then will suffer from 'long covid'. If they start making sure masks are worn in schools as is required pretty much everywhere else in the world, we might be able to cut the number.

I've edited the post with the actual article.

Have you compared his previous work based on ONS data and the actual outcome ?

Quoted from Maringer

Humbercod, it doesn't interest me that this former policeman now writes stories for a living. So does Dan Brown but I wouldn't go looking to him for scientific analysis. Regardless of how well he can write a story, the ex-copper doesn't appear to have any real understanding of science or statistical analysis. Much like yourself, in fact, as you still seem to be confusing deaths reported through the Yellow Card system as being undoubtedly caused directly by the vaccines. They are not. Let me repeat, the vast majority of the deaths you are talking about will have nothing at all to do with the vaccination.

If you look at a substantial proportion of the population (and the older and less well cohorts, especially), a great many otherwise healthy people each year simply drop dead at any given moment due to natural causes i.e. congenital problems, undiagnosed illnesses, strokes, heart attacks, etc. These natural deaths are just background 'noise' when looking for serious side effects from vaccines or other medical treatments and the Yellow Card system is specifically there to look for underlying actual side-effects. Such as the very rare blood clots with the adenovirus vector vaccines which we know about and emerging signs that the mRNA vaccines can, on extremely rare occasions cause (usually treatable) events of myocarditis in young adults.

I'm surprised that you should dismiss out of hand the study (not yet peer reviewed, obviously) comparing scans which apparently shows neurotropism caused by Covid. Here's a link to that preprint, by the way:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf

Note that the whole point of the UK Biobank project is, and I quote, "improving the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of a wide range of serious and life-threatening illnesses". This paper, seems to be an ideal use of the pre-Covid Biobank data and the findings seem pretty stark to me though, of course, we'll have to wait until it is peer reviewed before we can be absolutely sure. The authors are working for respected institutions, so safe to say it isn't a spurious paper aimed at gaining attention and funding, as so many are.

Have a quick skim through the paper and let me know your thoughts about it. You can just read the initial abstract. Ought to take you a few minutes. Take a look and have your say.

This is a novel coronavirus and we still don't know half of what it can do to some people despite the millions who have already died from it across the world and the millions still suffering the aftermath of the disease (around 1 million people with 'Long Covid' in the UK at present). The fact that we have vaccines which are still effective against the current variants is good news, but unless we can shut down transmission, it is only likely to be a matter of time before even more dangerous variants arrive. The absolute disinformation about the current vaccination programme from the conspiracy theorists out there is pretty shameful in my view.

My children are young enough that they'll not be getting any vaccine in the near future so that isn't a consideration at present. I am convinced that the mRNA vaccines are safe given that many hundreds of millions of doses have been given around the world and there have only been a vanishingly small number of problems reported. However, it wouldn't surprise me if young children ended up being given other vaccine types next year. We'll have to wait and see what happens in that regard.

Interesting you should lever 'Global warming' into the conversation for some unknown reason. We do have incontrovertible numerical evidence that warming is rapidly occurring and, heck, if you insist on relying on anecdote, just think back to all we've all seen over the past couple of decades. I do believe Anthropogenic Climate Change is occurring and the data is all on my side (not to mention the majority of scientists).

Putting that to one side, I'm rather baffled that you think there is no evidence that children are spreading the Delta variant in schools and then on into the community! Where are you getting your news from?

Here's the latest round of REACT-1 data:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/findings-from-covid-19-round-12-react-1-study-published

Here's a snippet from the report:



Here's PHE from 3rd June:

Tweet 1400437277189447683 will appear here...

Plenty of evidence out there for increasing numbers of outbreaks in schools to the extent I'm not going to bother doing your googling for you. Just have a quick search.

Latest Government data indicates Delta has a secondary attack rate around 41% higher than Alpha (discussion starts on page 26):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf

With this in mind, of course children are catching and spreading the virus in schools and then taking it home!

The swine flu narcolepsy issues for one vaccine type were a sad situation. Thankfully, it doesn't appear that there is any similar signal with the mRNA vaccines that has appeared. Similarly, no evidence of ADE despite tens of thousands of confirmed reinfections which I'm sure you know. Luckily, work on SARS vaccine candidates showed the areas where ADE was most likely to occur and the development of the Covid-19 vaccines was carried out to avoid these.

The technology behind mRNA vaccines has been in development for decades so it's not such a big jump in reality, even if the timeline has been advanced by a few years due to the emergency of this pandemic. It's no coincidence that both Pfizer and Moderna were able to produce their mRNA vaccines pretty much at the same time. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that CureVac's mRNA vaccine is effective enough (reported 47% efficacy in their recently-announced trial results) and it remains to be seen if the Sanofi mRNA vaccine works well enough or if the Chinese one works as well.

It's a real shame that Novavax have encountered manufacturing issues as their recombinant protein vaccine is a more standard type and it also seems to be very effective. I'm sort of hoping that this is the one I'll be given as a booster this autumn, but I'll be happy to take whichever one I'm given. I'll be very confident that it is several orders of magnitude safer than actually catching Covid.

Sorry for the late reply needed some time away.
Firstly let’s clear up the yellow cards you just can’t brush under the carpet over a million adverse reactions and 1300+ Deaths by coincidence. These numbers are far greater than any previous vaccination program, less than 300 recorded deaths after taking the Flu vaccine since1963 for example, questions need to be asked not ignored. Maybe try using your logic against the 152000 Covid (cough) deaths.

I’ve read the brain shrinking report and it’s nothing more than scaremongering to get people taking the experimental gene therapy.
The researchers surprisingly did not rule out these subtle changes resulting from a loss of taste or smell, not the cause of it.
The following report comes from a scientific report on the Oxford findings-

Most people with COVID experience a temporary loss of smell, which is a fairly benign symptom. Loss of smell is probably caused by infection of non neuronal cells involved in smell, rather than direct injury to brain cells.
Also widespread structural changes in the brain following the loss of sense of smell have been documented before SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID, infected the first human. There is even a common inflammatory condition, called chronic rhinosinusitis that causes changes in grey matter that are HIGHLY reminiscent of the reported Oxford study.
Fortunately, sense of smell is regained by most COVID patients after a few months in which case alterations of the brain would be expected to be TEMPORARY.

Maybe wait until it’s at least Peer reviewed next time eh Maringer! And as for your Long Covid propaganda (you really surprise me) it’s just an added scare a new name for ‘post viral syndrome’ which is very common where 99%+ of all patients get better in time, patients with pneumonia for example are told up to 6 months before full recovery.
Some of the main symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, memory loss can also be attributed to lockdown induced social isolation, a recent trial reported fatigue 33% and headaches 34% despite not having been injected with the vaccine😀

It’s almost as if we have scientists on the government payroll trying to prove how serious Covid is to the young fit and healthy among us, I’m sure there’s a link here to climate change🤔

I don’t want to seem rude but don’t show my anymore government data because I don’t trust it, they can say children are super spreaders all they want to get them the vaccine, it doesn’t work on me. Here’s a tip when you’re doing your own research don’t just type in the google search and select the pages that google act offer, you need to delve a bit deeper matey.
I’ve found plenty of very credible data and studies that contradict just about everything the government (you weirdly trust) have to say.

Still to early to be talking about ADE that’s to come. Feeling really happy with my decision not to get injected but I will be sourcing and getting stocked up with ivermectin just as a precaution (don’t even begin bore me with the it’s only for animal nonsense). Interesting to also note a recent report from PHE concludes more people are dying of this more severe new delta variant after having the jabs than those without…. Good luck with your boosters.

First paragraph. You're wrong.

Second paragraph. Ignores the findings of the study and inserts a conspiracy about, "Experimental gene therapy". Both wrong and deluded.

Third paragraph. Irrelevant. A number of people have never recovered their sense of smell (to date). The exact mechanism remains to be discovered.

Fourth paragraph. Eh? Long Covid isn't propaganda as I know from a young family member who has been bedridden for months. Yes, it is obviously a type of post viral syndrome. We don't know much about these in other viruses, let alone this novel coronavirus which had never infected human beings until around 18 months ago.

Fifth paragraph. Climate change? You're just gibbering now.

Sixth paragraph. You have no idea what you're talking about. The data being released by the government shows that they are failing utterly so it's obviously not some sort of nonsense to try and scare people into submission. Government policy is clearly - and I mean, absolutely clearly - to aim for 'herd immunity' by vaccinating adults letting children catch it in schools. Why else remove the mask mandate in schools in mid-May when we knew a much more transmissible variant was spreading and why refuse to make any mitigations such as better ventilation and increased distancing when it is taking off so much? We're not going to have the doses available to vaccinate children for months and months, even if the mRNA vaccines were authorised so thinking there is some sort of psy-ops going on is idiotic. If you've got credible data and studies that contradict the government data, please post it and I'll be happy to take it to pieces. Note, the government are ignoring the data that Sage/PHE/ONS are releasing. Here's increasing prevalence in schools. Why aren't they insisting on masking once again?:



For reference, a whole year group at my wife's school in N.E. Lincs is being sent home to isolate due to the number of cases which have arisen. She taught one of those classes today, so we'll have to see if we're going to get it from that route. My son's primary school has just announced another case though not, apparently, in his class bubble.

There have been no indications of ADE and the vaccines were designed to try and avoid the risk of ADE. Not surprised you're on the Ivermectin bandwagon despite the lack of any reliable data pointing towards a benefit. Do be sure to wash it down with some hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Oh, and zinc! Don't forget the zinc! Might as well try some homeopathic remedies at the same time. Curcumin is popular amongst true believers as well, I understand.

Final paragraph. Well, surprise, surprise. You're wrong. A good few fully-vaccinated people are dying because, well, they are older and have a much greater risk of infection and serious illness from the virus. This is true whether or not they are vaccinated though, of course, those vaccinated will have much greater protection. The way that anti-vaxxers such as yourself don't seem to understand the fact that there is vaccine escape and fully-vaccinated people are dying shows a tragic lack of understanding of data. The vaccines are saving thousands of lives. Here's an easy to understand graphical representation of how this wave is differing to earlier waves of infection in terms of hospitalisations (and therefore deaths):



Infections are rocketing and will continue to rocket with the spread of Delta, tens and probably hundreds of thousands will develop 'Long Covid' symptoms of varying severity, tens of thousands more will die this year and yet fools such as yourself are still decrying the vaccines as some sort of an experimental government conspiracy. Utter madness. The government are flipping it up entirely yet again and it's no wonder they are getting away with it when people read ludicrous nonsense on facebook and think they know more than the scientists.

Quoted from Maringer

First paragraph. You're wrong.

Second paragraph. Ignores the findings of the study and inserts a conspiracy about, "Experimental gene therapy". Both wrong and deluded.

Third paragraph. Irrelevant. A number of people have never recovered their sense of smell (to date). The exact mechanism remains to be discovered.

Fourth paragraph. Eh? Long Covid isn't propaganda as I know from a young family member who has been bedridden for months. Yes, it is obviously a type of post viral syndrome. We don't know much about these in other viruses, let alone this novel coronavirus which had never infected human beings until around 18 months ago.

Fifth paragraph. Climate change? You're just gibbering now.

Sixth paragraph. You have no idea what you're talking about. The data being released by the government shows that they are failing utterly so it's obviously not some sort of nonsense to try and scare people into submission. Government policy is clearly - and I mean, absolutely clearly - to aim for 'herd immunity' by vaccinating adults letting children catch it in schools. Why else remove the mask mandate in schools in mid-May when we knew a much more transmissible variant was spreading and why refuse to make any mitigations such as better ventilation and increased distancing when it is taking off so much? We're not going to have the doses available to vaccinate children for months and months, even if the mRNA vaccines were authorised so thinking there is some sort of psy-ops going on is idiotic. If you've got credible data and studies that contradict the government data, please post it and I'll be happy to take it to pieces. Note, the government are ignoring the data that Sage/PHE/ONS are releasing. Here's increasing prevalence in schools. Why aren't they insisting on masking once again?:



For reference, a whole year group at my wife's school in N.E. Lincs is being sent home to isolate due to the number of cases which have arisen. She taught one of those classes today, so we'll have to see if we're going to get it from that route. My son's primary school has just announced another case though not, apparently, in his class bubble.

There have been no indications of ADE and the vaccines were designed to try and avoid the risk of ADE. Not surprised you're on the Ivermectin bandwagon despite the lack of any reliable data pointing towards a benefit. Do be sure to wash it down with some hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Oh, and zinc! Don't forget the zinc! Might as well try some homeopathic remedies at the same time. Curcumin is popular amongst true believers as well, I understand.

Final paragraph. Well, surprise, surprise. You're wrong. A good few fully-vaccinated people are dying because, well, they are older and have a much greater risk of infection and serious illness from the virus. This is true whether or not they are vaccinated though, of course, those vaccinated will have much greater protection. The way that anti-vaxxers such as yourself don't seem to understand the fact that there is vaccine escape and fully-vaccinated people are dying shows a tragic lack of understanding of data. The vaccines are saving thousands of lives. Here's an easy to understand graphical representation of how this wave is differing to earlier waves of infection in terms of hospitalisations (and therefore deaths):



Infections are rocketing and will continue to rocket with the spread of Delta, tens and probably hundreds of thousands will develop 'Long Covid' symptoms of varying severity, tens of thousands more will die this year and yet fools such as yourself are still decrying the vaccines as some sort of an experimental government conspiracy. Utter madness. The government are flipping it up entirely yet again and it's no wonder they are getting away with it when people read ludicrous nonsense on facebook and think they know more than the scientists.

1. I didn’t ignore your study I read it questioned it and did my own research.
This is just one of the reports that has absolutely ripped it to bits -
https://www.hartgroup.org/overblown-claims-of-covid-brain-damage/
Ever been told you have a superiority complex?

2. You talk about people never regaining their sense of smell (what ages are we talking?) but surprisingly from you no data from the ministry of propaganda?

Again I’ve researched this and at still an early stage there’s a real mixed bag of study’s, but the consensus seems to show that the vast majority will recover within 6 months (post viral syndrome)

Your obstinate refusal to check your own research on the child spreaders is just laughable when the following can be found on even a basic google search -
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/kids-likely-not-driving-household-covid-19-outbreaks
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/study-finds-kids-under-10-unlikely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-school
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804.amp

I’m encouraged to hear from you that we won’t have enough doses to vaccinate our children but I’m sure you can understand I won’t take this as being face value information.

I see that you’re still flapping about a rise in cases then? what you after Maringer more Furlough enjoy the 6 week summer holidays with the wife? this is of no concern to me as the majority of elderly and vulnerable are now vaccinated most of us just want to get back to normality,
The other thing not being talked about is this ridiculous track and trace if you’ve got it please delete it. My wife has just spent 10 says self isolating due to a colleague at work she has had no close contact with after he proved positive. He’d had his 2 jabs). At the same company many more have had to self isolate even the company mechanic who had no contact whatsoever but still had to isolate because the App had told him to!!!
Absolutely ridiculous it’s incidents like this nationwide that are falsely bumping up these so called cases and freaking those of a nervous disposition (such as yourself) out.

Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine possible treatments said Trump and MSN ridiculed him!  a year later these treatments are being prescribed worldwide especially in places where big pharma cannot sell there gene therapy.
India has offered Ivermectin to its entire population ignoring the vaccine pushing WHO and is now seeing the benefit with a massive decline in deaths.
Even the BBC are now having to report on the (possible gritted teeth) benefits-
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57570377.amp
I’m not going to do the work for you anymore but try checking out independent UK doctors take on these drugs (hint not in a google search) you will find that they disagree with you.

The thing is with the media they are totally in cahoots with this propaganda even down to the source of the outbreak, again Trump told us it came from a lab in Wuhan, Trump gets hammered as a result Facebook started to censor poster who would dare to mention this credible theory. A year later Facebook have now had to reverse this decision as the evidence is showing that it almost certainly did come from a lab. The reason we have so many conspiracy theorists is because they keep being proven correct 😂

Lastly from PHE here’s the death rates from people dying with the new variant check out out table no. 4 (try and understand it correctly)  oh no seems your wrong again. Keep topping up your antibodies 😂
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

FAO Maringer Edited PHE table no. 4.

See the MSN are going all out assault on the kids this morning FFS
I predicted this a few weeks back on here, this is all about vaccinating the kids now!
Evil no other words.

Stop daily case updates as virus no longer an 'important cause of mortality', says JCVI scientist


Britain should stop publishing daily figures on Covid-19 case rates because the virus is now a “long way from being an important cause” of death, a vaccine advisor has said.

Prof Robert Dingwall, a member of the UK Government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, urged people to stop panicking about the current rising infection levels, which may only be reflecting a “last wave of mild infections” among unvaccinated youths.

“It is well past time to panic about infection rates and to publish them obsessively. Even hospitalisation rates are increasingly misleading as better therapy reduces length of stay. Covid is now a long way from being an important cause of mortality,” the Nervtag scientist tweeted.

He joins a growing number of MPs and leading scientists, including Prof Tim Spector, of King’s College London, warning the daily slew of Covid statistics are terrifying people and they lack any context, such as figures on flu, heart disease and cancer.

Conservative MPs are pressing Downing Street to follow officials in Quebec, Canada, and Singapore by moving to weekly updates or similar, ahead of the July 19 unlocking.

Prof Dingwall added: “A reminder: medicine cannot deliver immortality and it is profoundly damaging to society to imply that it can, if only we try hard enough.”

Quoted from Stadium

Stop daily case updates as virus no longer an 'important cause of mortality', says JCVI scientist


Britain should stop publishing daily figures on Covid-19 case rates because the virus is now a “long way from being an important cause” of death, a vaccine advisor has said.

Prof Robert Dingwall, a member of the UK Government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, urged people to stop panicking about the current rising infection levels, which may only be reflecting a “last wave of mild infections” among unvaccinated youths.

“It is well past time to panic about infection rates and to publish them obsessively. Even hospitalisation rates are increasingly misleading as better therapy reduces length of stay. Covid is now a long way from being an important cause of mortality,” the Nervtag scientist tweeted.

He joins a growing number of MPs and leading scientists, including Prof Tim Spector, of King’s College London, warning the daily slew of Covid statistics are terrifying people and they lack any context, such as figures on flu, heart disease and cancer.

Conservative MPs are pressing Downing Street to follow officials in Quebec, Canada, and Singapore by moving to weekly updates or similar, ahead of the July 19 unlocking.

Prof Dingwall added: “A reminder: medicine cannot deliver immortality and it is profoundly damaging to society to imply that it can, if only we try hard enough.”

Exactly! Every death is a sad loss for family and friends but we used to live in a time where 10000+ annual Flu deaths was the norm. I don’t see the point in focusing on the cases, Grimsby hospital currently has 2 Covid patients, yet telegraph headlines shouts high case rates! Bleak times has the delta variant takes hold!!
I agree with the professor stop the reporting on cases, this will help stop the fear mongering so we can all move on and learn to live with Covid just like the Flu.

Hadn’t the reporting of cases been scaremongering throughout? Haven’t they altered the way in which cases have been recorded and reported a number of times.

There are experts out there calling for an end to the restrictions and the fear mongering, interesting that if people champion those views or quote them people still get uppity. Very strange.

Nobody has ever said it isn’t tragic and nobody of sound mind can argue against the notion that government have been essentially proven to be incompetent for the duration, handing out large sums of tax payers money to no mark chums to keep them sweet and rich…but we have to move on. We have to move away from this rhetoric that those that have had a the vaccine are better than those who are choosing not to. The haves and have nots so to speak…

Quoted from Humbercod

Your obstinate refusal to check your own research on the child spreaders is just laughable when the following can be found on even a basic google search -
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/kids-likely-not-driving-household-covid-19-outbreaks
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/study-finds-kids-under-10-unlikely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-school
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804.amp

Those sources don’t prove anything like what you think they’re proving. The first two are outdated, taken from a time when nobody was vaccinated. But now a high percentage of the adult population is vaccinated but cases are rising, it would anecdotally suggest that some of that may be driven by kids. The fact that the data shows a lot of it is 12-18 and 18-24 year olds (only recently being given the vaccine so no time to build up immunity yet) would seem to confirm that in the current environment ie one where a high percentage of the adult population has a degree of immunity, some of the cases and spread may well be amongst one of the population groups still not vaccinated. Hardly rocket science.

The second two both suggest that only kids under the age of 10 are less likely to spread the virus and that older kids are more likely to spread the virus in a way that is more similar to adults. It may have been a basic google search but I’d suggest reading more than just the headline would give you a better understanding of what the articles actually say.

Quoted from Humbercod

1. I didn’t ignore your study I read it questioned it and did my own research.
This is just one of the reports that has absolutely ripped it to bits -
https://www.hartgroup.org/overblown-claims-of-covid-brain-damage/
Ever been told you have a superiority complex?

2. You talk about people never regaining their sense of smell (what ages are we talking?) but surprisingly from you no data from the ministry of propaganda?

Again I’ve researched this and at still an early stage there’s a real mixed bag of study’s, but the consensus seems to show that the vast majority will recover within 6 months (post viral syndrome)

Your obstinate refusal to check your own research on the child spreaders is just laughable when the following can be found on even a basic google search -
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/kids-likely-not-driving-household-covid-19-outbreaks
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/study-finds-kids-under-10-unlikely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-school
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52003804.amp

I’m encouraged to hear from you that we won’t have enough doses to vaccinate our children but I’m sure you can understand I won’t take this as being face value information.

I see that you’re still flapping about a rise in cases then? what you after Maringer more Furlough enjoy the 6 week summer holidays with the wife? this is of no concern to me as the majority of elderly and vulnerable are now vaccinated most of us just want to get back to normality,
The other thing not being talked about is this ridiculous track and trace if you’ve got it please delete it. My wife has just spent 10 says self isolating due to a colleague at work she has had no close contact with after he proved positive. He’d had his 2 jabs). At the same company many more have had to self isolate even the company mechanic who had no contact whatsoever but still had to isolate because the App had told him to!!!
Absolutely ridiculous it’s incidents like this nationwide that are falsely bumping up these so called cases and freaking those of a nervous disposition (such as yourself) out.

Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine possible treatments said Trump and MSN ridiculed him!  a year later these treatments are being prescribed worldwide especially in places where big pharma cannot sell there gene therapy.
India has offered Ivermectin to its entire population ignoring the vaccine pushing WHO and is now seeing the benefit with a massive decline in deaths.
Even the BBC are now having to report on the (possible gritted teeth) benefits-
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57570377.amp
I’m not going to do the work for you anymore but try checking out independent UK doctors take on these drugs (hint not in a google search) you will find that they disagree with you.

The thing is with the media they are totally in cahoots with this propaganda even down to the source of the outbreak, again Trump told us it came from a lab in Wuhan, Trump gets hammered as a result Facebook started to censor poster who would dare to mention this credible theory. A year later Facebook have now had to reverse this decision as the evidence is showing that it almost certainly did come from a lab. The reason we have so many conspiracy theorists is because they keep being proven correct 😂

Lastly from PHE here’s the death rates from people dying with the new variant check out out table no. 4 (try and understand it correctly)  oh no seems your wrong again. Keep topping up your antibodies 😂
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

Sigh. Here we go again.

1. Hart Group = a group of Covid-sceptic scientists who have been promoting doubt and pseudo-science about the pandemic from the off. The link doesn't rip the study to bits. It makes claims without evidence and tries to dismiss the concerns raised by the paper. The other articles make very bold claims which, surprise surprise, go against the scientific consensus such as claiming that asymptomatic people can't spread the virus - palpable nonsense!

2. I said some people haven't recovered their sense of smell after many months, which is true. I've seen reports of 9 months plus. I never claimed it would necessary be permanent loss. Read what I wrote.

3. Children spreading the virus. Your first two links are from studies dating back pre-Alpha (which is 50% more transmissible than prior variants). The second two links are relating to studies made pre-Delta (~60% more infectious than Alpha, so roughly 2.5 times as transmissible as the virus in circulation last Autumn). Why is it so much more transmissible? Probably due to higher and more prolonged viral loads which would certainly explain how children could be more at risk of both catching and spreading Delta. Look at the chart showing infections in schools (ages 10 to 14) which I posted. This chart was taken from the following twitter thread:



The particular Professor on that thread has another chart showing similar exponential increase in rates in ages 5 to 9.

Now, please try to use your brain this time. If children don't spread the virus so easily, why are so many children becoming infected at the moment? Are they all somehow magically catching Delta on the way to school or whilst sitting at home? Or do you think that, just maybe, they are catching it from their classmates and then spreading it on?

Your sentence saying something about furlough doesn't make sense, so I'll ignore that. The fact that you think we should be back towards normality now shows me you have no grasp of the gravity of the current situation. Infections up 69% over the past week and if that was to continue, we would be in the range of 75,000 daily cases in 2 weeks times. The vaccines are still working pretty well and hospitalisations are thankfully only up 10% from last week (and from a very low level). However, we know there is a 2 week lag so we'll see a big leap in hospitalisations before too long and, at some point in the summer, the numbers will be very high.

The phone app is just a tool to assist a track and trace system. Similar technology has worked reasonably well in countries who organised proper boots on the ground track and trace. We instead spunked a vast amount of money to outsourcers who set up poorly-designed phone systems operated by workers with no public health experience and no oversight from people who actually knew what they were doing. Idiocy in action. Still, at least the outsourcers have made some tidy profits, eh?

Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work. It just doesn't. Lots of trials have proved this so please don't continue to bang that particular drum. The trials which have been run for Ivermectin similarly don't appear to show any evidence of efficacy. There is meta-analysis of lots of Ivermectin trials/prophylactic use which appears to show some efficacy, but the data is all over the place so nothing like any proof. The bold claims from those promoting its use don't seem to hold up so far. You seem to misunderstand the BBC report which just mentioned that the PRINCIPLE trial is going to give Ivermectin a proper, well-designed trial to see if the evidence backs up the claims. It would be nice if it did (another dexamethasone effect would be useful), but I'm not holding my breath. The problem is that there is no obvious biological mechanism for efficacy of Ivermectin at the doses used by its proponents. No doubt, if the PRINCIPLE trial finds no efficacy, we'll just be told they were doing it wrong. That's the way of things these days.

While I remember, MSN = Microsoft News. I'm guessing that you're intending to say MSM = Mainstream Media when you talk about it disparagingly. And a lot of the MSM does deserve to be disparaged a lot of the time. You're just picking at the bits which are based on the scientific consensus and evidence.

There is no evidence showing the virus definitely came from a Wuhan lab. I'll repeat, don't get your news from facebook. They promote and will say any old shite as long as it gets them advertising revenue. A leak from a Wuhan lab is certainly a slight possibility, but still less likely than a zoonotic origin from a wild animal. The fact that it took many years to discover the link between SARS and civet cats shows that you can't just magic up a source for a newly-emergent disease just by testing lots of animals in the vicinity.

For your final comment, you make note of a figure in the PHE VOC data without clearly saying what your point is. As you are an anti-vaxxer when it comes to Covid, I'm guessing it's that the vaccines aren't effective, as that seems to be how anti-vaxxers show they simply don't understand mathematical probability. This being the case, here's a very clear and easy to understand explanation as to why most people dying from Covid have been vaccinated:

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

A lot less of them than would have been the case without the vaccines, is the answer. Look what happened in India over the past few months, look what is happening in many African countries right now. Unfortunately, we're going to be seeing some terrible news from many places around the world as Delta becomes dominant almost everywhere, infections run rampant and people die due to lack of medical attention.

Quoted from aldi_01

Hadn’t the reporting of cases been scaremongering throughout? Haven’t they altered the way in which cases have been recorded and reported a number of times.

There are experts out there calling for an end to the restrictions and the fear mongering, interesting that if people champion those views or quote them people still get uppity. Very strange.

Nobody has ever said it isn’t tragic and nobody of sound mind can argue against the notion that government have been essentially proven to be incompetent for the duration, handing out large sums of tax payers money to no mark chums to keep them sweet and rich…but we have to move on. We have to move away from this rhetoric that those that have had a the vaccine are better than those who are choosing not to. The haves and have nots so to speak…

No, reporting of cases hasn't been scaremongering. It has been reporting of cases. The data has also been available for number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

The experts calling for an end to the restrictions apparently haven't bothered to look at the data recently. You'd have to ask them why - perhaps they think a hundred thousand or so children suffering from long-term issues following infection is worthwhile and a few more tens of thousands of dead people (mostly older groupings) don't really matter?

Having a vaccine or not doesn't make you better or worse. It makes you have less or more of risk of serious illness whilst making you less or more of a risk to your fellow citizens.

Quoted from Stadium

Stop daily case updates as virus no longer an 'important cause of mortality', says JCVI scientist

Dingwall is on a roll at the moment. He's been slated for this tweet from earlier today:



Bear in mind that we know long covid affects a reasonable proportion of teens infected and we have vaccines (or will have doses available later in the year) which have been given in many millions of doses to teenagers around the world without significant numbers of side-effects. Seems a bit bloody-minded to me. My guess is that most of his JCVI colleagues won't feel the same.

Quoted from Maringer

No, reporting of cases hasn't been scaremongering. It has been reporting of cases. The data has also been available for number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

The experts calling for an end to the restrictions apparently haven't bothered to look at the data recently. You'd have to ask them why - perhaps they think a hundred thousand or so children suffering from long-term issues following infection is worthwhile and a few more tens of thousands of dead people (mostly older groupings) don't really matter?

Having a vaccine or not doesn't make you better or worse. It makes you have less or more of risk of serious illness whilst making you less or more of a risk to your fellow citizens.

I beg to differ. The reporting of covid has been scaremongering, my reason being that anybody who died with covid on their death certificate was recorded as a covid death. Covid may well have been a contributory factor, but in many was not the main cause of death. Likewise, people who died of say heart problems, but also caught the flu, would not have flu on their death certificate.  

Just look at the excess death numbers. That should put any doubts to bed. Also consider that the weather in the first 6 months of 2020 was extremely mild so it should have been a 'good' year as regards mortality in the elderly.

The fact that so many people believe many of the Covid-related deaths aren't caused by Covid shows just what a good job the denialists have done at spreading doubt and misinformation. The thing to consider now is that Delta is almost 2.5 times as transmissible as the early virus which led us to lockdown last year. Also some indication that it is more deadly to those without the protection of either vaccination or prior infection. Thankfully, the vaccination programme has provided a lot of protection to those at greatest risk, but they aren't near 100 percent efficacy. We need to get the spread under control somehow but aren't event attempting to do so which is a bad mistake.

Watch in the coming months as Delta causes terrible loss of life in countries without the vaccines. You'll also be able to use the US as a comparison. Many of the Republican states remain under-vaccinated compared to their beighbp due to stupid political rhetoric, so it will be a case of catastrophe in some areas whilst infections just bubble away with less harm in others.

Quoted from DB

I beg to differ. The reporting of covid has been scaremongering, my reason being that anybody who died with covid on their death certificate was recorded as a covid death. Covid may well have been a contributory factor, but in many was not the main cause of death. Likewise, people who died of say heart problems, but also caught the flu, would not have flu on their death certificate.  

Oh good. This old myth again. You have no evidence to base these claims on at all. There will be patients whom aren’t counted in the figures because they died more than 28 days after their last test. The department I worked in last year was responsible for doing tracheostomies on covid patients during the first wave and unfortunately, some of those on our waiting list had been on for weeks before they deteriorated and died.  

Quoted from Maringer

[/b]Sigh[b]Here we go again.

1. Hart Group = a group of Covid-sceptic scientists who have been promoting doubt and pseudo-science about the pandemic from the off. The link doesn't rip the study to bits. It makes claims without evidence and tries to dismiss the concerns raised by the paper. The other articles make very bold claims which, surprise surprise, go against the scientific consensus such as claiming that asymptomatic people can't spread the virus - palpable nonsense!

2. I said some people haven't recovered their sense of smell after many months, which is true. I've seen reports of 9 months plus. I never claimed it would necessary be permanent loss. Read what I wrote.

3. Children spreading the virus. Your first two links are from studies dating back pre-Alpha (which is 50% more transmissible than prior variants). The second two links are relating to studies made pre-Delta (~60% more infectious than Alpha, so roughly 2.5 times as transmissible as the virus in circulation last Autumn). Why is it so much more transmissible? Probably due to higher and more prolonged viral loads which would certainly explain how children could be more at risk of both catching and spreading Delta. Look at the chart showing infections in schools (ages 10 to 14) which I posted. This chart was taken from the following twitter thread:

Tweet 1409924332378263554 will appear here...

The particular Professor on that thread has another chart showing similar exponential increase in rates in ages 5 to 9.

Now, please try to use your brain this time. If children don't spread the virus so easily, why are so many children becoming infected at the moment? Are they all somehow magically catching Delta on the way to school or whilst sitting at home? Or do you think that, just maybe, they are catching it from their classmates and then spreading it on?

Your sentence saying something about furlough doesn't make sense, so I'll ignore that. The fact that you think we should be back towards normality now shows me you have no grasp of the gravity of the current situation. Infections up 69% over the past week and if that was to continue, we would be in the range of 75,000 daily cases in 2 weeks times. The vaccines are still working pretty well and hospitalisations are thankfully only up 10% from last week (and from a very low level). However, we know there is a 2 week lag so we'll see a big leap in hospitalisations before too long and, at some point in the summer, the numbers will be very high.

The phone app is just a tool to assist a track and trace system. Similar technology has worked reasonably well in countries who organised proper boots on the ground track and trace. We instead spunked a vast amount of money to outsourcers who set up poorly-designed phone systems operated by workers with no public health experience and no oversight from people who actually knew what they were doing. Idiocy in action. Still, at least the outsourcers have made some tidy profits, eh?

Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work. It just doesn't. Lots of trials have proved this so please don't continue to bang that particular drum. The trials which have been run for Ivermectin similarly don't appear to show any evidence of efficacy. There is meta-analysis of lots of Ivermectin trials/prophylactic use which appears to show some efficacy, but the data is all over the place so nothing like any proof. The bold claims from those promoting its use don't seem to hold up so far. You seem to misunderstand the BBC report which just mentioned that the PRINCIPLE trial is going to give Ivermectin a proper, well-designed trial to see if the evidence backs up the claims. It would be nice if it did (another dexamethasone effect would be useful), but I'm not holding my breath. The problem is that there is no obvious biological mechanism for efficacy of Ivermectin at the doses used by its proponents. No doubt, if the PRINCIPLE trial finds no efficacy, we'll just be told they were doing it wrong. That's the way of things these days.

While I remember, MSN = Microsoft News. I'm guessing that you're intending to say MSM = Mainstream Media when you talk about it disparagingly. And a lot of the MSM does deserve to be disparaged a lot of the time. You're just picking at the bits which are based on the scientific consensus and evidence.

There is no evidence showing the virus definitely came from a Wuhan lab. I'll repeat, don't get your news from facebook. They promote and will say any old shite as long as it gets them advertising revenue. A leak from a Wuhan lab is certainly a slight possibility, but still less likely than a zoonotic origin from a wild animal. The fact that it took many years to discover the link between SARS and civet cats shows that you can't just magic up a source for a newly-emergent disease just by testing lots of animals in the vicinity.

For your final comment, you make note of a figure in the PHE VOC data without clearly saying what your point is. As you are an anti-vaxxer when it comes to Covid, I'm guessing it's that the vaccines aren't effective, as that seems to be how anti-vaxxers show they simply don't understand mathematical probability. This being the case, here's a very clear and easy to understand explanation as to why most people dying from Covid have been vaccinated:

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

A lot less of them than would have been the case without the vaccines, is the answer. Look what happened in India over the past few months, look what is happening in many African countries right now. Unfortunately, we're going to be seeing some terrible news from many places around the world as Delta becomes dominant almost everywhere, infections run rampant and people die due to lack of medical attention.

Thanks again for you’re patronising reply👍 that complex of yours seems to be growing, even verging on to Narcissistic territory.

I knew you would look to slander a credible organisation of highly qualified UK doctors, scientists, economists, psychologists and other academic experts with your disparaging but not surprising superior reply, slightly disappointed  you didn’t find a right wing slant in there so no bingo this time.

You criticise their report claiming its not based on evidence when the Oxford report is based on theory not actual evidence...ooh the irony.
I’m surprised you can dismiss these experts and what they have to say so easily, did you actually read their in depth analysis? Do you honestly just think these professional academics have just made it up? Well here’s more experts (obviously not on your level) -

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/covid-linked-to-loss-of-brain-tissue-but-correlation-doesnt-prove-causation-163183
You obviously struggle being wrong and I feel for your wife.

My links on the children were based on the basic google search and that was my point, heavily biased google is even top heavy with counter claims, but that went over your head. I stand by my point on actual evidence alone that there is nothing conclusive to suggest children... and back to your wife school (possibly Thrunscoe) ie below 12 years old. Just because 1 or 2 children with a snivel fail a Covid test resulting in the whole year having to isolate, multiplied throughout the land creating false figures is not evidence, 300,000 + kids at home that don’t have Covid... sigh! this is more propaganda to blame the children and coheres the parents into injecting them with chemicals that will ultimately cause them more harm then good.

When this gets enrolled and it’s only a matter of time, probably during the summer holidays along the lines of no jab no education, so as the vaccine child reactions and deaths mount as in the states will you then still be putting this down to coincidence I wonder?. Let me be clear not one child should be losing their life to an experimental jab, and you know full well this will happen so can you a least admit this? And if you still agree with poisoning innocent children who are at no risk whatsoever from Covid then I’m finished replying to you.

I thought you might struggle with the PHE tables focus on case fatality rate.

CFR delta variant:-

Jab = 73 deaths/38,207 cases = 0.19%

No jab = 44/53,822 = 0.08%

Booked in for them boosters yet?

Quoted from Humbercod

Thanks again for you’re patronising reply👍 that complex of yours seems to be growing, even verging on to Narcissistic territory.

I knew you would look to slander a credible organisation of highly qualified UK doctors, scientists, economists, psychologists and other academic experts with your disparaging but not surprising superior reply, slightly disappointed  you didn’t find a right wing slant in there so no bingo this time.

You criticise their report claiming its not based on evidence when the Oxford report is based on theory not actual evidence...ooh the irony.
I’m surprised you can dismiss these experts and what they have to say so easily, did you actually read their in depth analysis? Do you honestly just think these professional academics have just made it up? Well here’s more experts (obviously not on your level) -

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/covid-linked-to-loss-of-brain-tissue-but-correlation-doesnt-prove-causation-163183
You obviously struggle being wrong and I feel for your wife.

My links on the children were based on the basic google search and that was my point, heavily biased google is even top heavy with counter claims, but that went over your head. I stand by my point on actual evidence alone that there is nothing conclusive to suggest children... and back to your wife school (possibly Thrunscoe) ie below 12 years old. Just because 1 or 2 children with a snivel fail a Covid test resulting in the whole year having to isolate, multiplied throughout the land creating false figures is not evidence, this is more propaganda to blame the children and coheres the parents into injecting them with chemicals that will ultimately cause them more harm then good.

When this gets enrolled and it’s only a matter of time, probably during the summer holidays along the lines of no jab no education, so as the vaccine child reactions and deaths mount as in the states will you then still be putting this down to coincidence I wonder?. Let me be clear not one child should be losing their life to an experimental jab, and you know full well this will happen so can you a least admit this? And if you still agree with poisoning innocent children who are at no risk whatsoever from Covid then I’m finished replying to you.

I thought you might struggle with the PHE tables focus on case fatality rate.

CFR delta variant:-

Jab = 73 deaths/38,207 cases = 0.19%

No jab = 44/53,822 = 0.08%

Booked in for them boosters yet?

Interpreting scientific papers and statistics really isn't your strong point is it?

This thread is a wonderful example of how access to information doesn't necessarily mean you have any idea what you're talking about. Anyone can cut and paste from google. For example:

Quoted from Humbercod

I knew you would look to slander a credible organisation of highly qualified UK doctors, scientists, economists, psychologists and other academic experts with your disparaging but not surprising superior reply, slightly disappointed  you didn’t find a right wing slant in there so no bingo this time.

Is literally just the tagline from their own website. No insight, just copy and paste. The fact that Karol Sikora, a man who Imperial College had to take legal action against to stop his bogus claims of being a professor there, is the second member of their "Medicine, science and data" team should raise alarm bells with all but the most crazy conspiracy theorist.

Cards on the table here. The patronising tone is deliberate, because I think you're a cretin who isn't capable of thinking for yourself. I prefer to be polite, but sometimes this just isn't possible. Edit: Sorry, I do think you have the capacity to think for yourself, just not the willingness.

I'm not slandering the Hart Group, just pointing out that they are a group with a Covid-denialist bent. It is why the group was formed. Take this into account when quoting them. When a scientist is arguing against the scientific consensus, he better have the data to back it up and this isn't the case with this bunch.

The brain scans preprint paper found anomalies in the pre- and post-Covid scans and pointed out that this might indicate there were issues to be concerned about. It didn't make any definite claims that it would lead to memory or other issues, just pointed out there seemed to be a problem and further research was required.

If you read my original post on the brain scans paper, I also said 'could' and 'might' and not 'is'. I don't state certainties unless they are pretty much just that. In the same way that I don't know if there certainly is a problem to be worried about (and neither do the scientists who carried out the study), your 'experts' don't know there certainly isn't a problem. Ever heard of the precautionary principle? I'm concerned it might be an issue for my children so I'm appalled that the government policy appears to be to let the virus rip through the schools almost unchecked.

I'm almost done now as I don't have the time to waste on more idiocy. Confirmed infections in children are rocketing, both in the under-10s and over-10s. This is what the data released by PHE/ONS is showing and this is what was shown in the posted charts. These show the results of positive PCR tests taken by children who will mostly be symptomatic. Where do you think these children are catching the virus, when you consider that the rates in adults (i.e. their parents) are considerably lower? Describe a mechanism which explains how these children are catching the virus which doesn't involve transmission from their schoolmates, within the classroom where they are sitting next to each other without any form of masking or other mitigation. Go on, I dare you.

My wife is a secondary school teacher, by the way and my son doesn't go to Thrunscoe so I've no idea about the situation there.

Despite the link I posted where Spiegelhalter simply explains why most people now dying have been vaccinated, it seems that you still don't apparently understand. Here it is once again. It really is very clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

You're confused because you are somehow imagining that the unvaccinated and the vaccinated groups had the same risk of death prior to vaccination and this obviously isn't the case as the age spread in the last couple of waves, before vaccines were available clearly show. When everyone in the country has been vaccinated, there will still be some deaths and they will almost all be in the older age groups who have a much higher risk from the virus due to their weaker immune system.

I'll probably be offered a booster in the autumn because I have mild asthma. I'll happily take it, because it will reduce my relatively low risk of serious illness and death form the virus even further. To turn it down would be stupid and I'm not stupid.

Quoted from Maringer

Cards on the table here. The patronising tone is deliberate, because I think you're a cretin who isn't capable of thinking for yourself. I prefer to be polite, but sometimes this just isn't possible. Edit: Sorry, I do think you have the capacity to think for yourself, just not the willingness.

I'm not slandering the Hart Group, just pointing out that they are a group with a Covid-denialist bent. It is why the group was formed. Take this into account when quoting them. When a scientist is arguing against the scientific consensus, he better have the data to back it up and this isn't the case with this bunch.

The brain scans preprint paper found anomalies in the pre- and post-Covid scans and pointed out that this might indicate there were issues to be concerned about. It didn't make any definite claims that it would lead to memory or other issues, just pointed out there seemed to be a problem and further research was required.

If you read my original post on the brain scans paper, I also said 'could' and 'might' and not 'is'. I don't state certainties unless they are pretty much just that. In the same way that I don't know if there certainly is a problem to be worried about (and neither do the scientists who carried out the study), your 'experts' don't know there certainly isn't a problem. Ever heard of the precautionary principle? I'm concerned it might be an issue for my children so I'm appalled that the government policy appears to be to let the virus rip through the schools almost unchecked.

I'm almost done now as I don't have the time to waste on more idiocy. Confirmed infections in children are rocketing, both in the under-10s and over-10s. This is what the data released by PHE/ONS is showing and this is what was shown in the posted charts. These show the results of positive PCR tests taken by children who will mostly be symptomatic. Where do you think these children are catching the virus, when you consider that the rates in adults (i.e. their parents) are considerably lower? Describe a mechanism which explains how these children are catching the virus which doesn't involve transmission from their schoolmates, within the classroom where they are sitting next to each other without any form of masking or other mitigation. Go on, I dare you.

My wife is a secondary school teacher, by the way and my son doesn't go to Thrunscoe so I've no idea about the situation there.

Despite the link I posted where Spiegelhalter simply explains why most people now dying have been vaccinated, it seems that you still don't apparently understand. Here it is once again. It really is very clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

You're confused because you are somehow imagining that the unvaccinated and the vaccinated groups had the same risk of death prior to vaccination and this obviously isn't the case as the age spread in the last couple of waves, before vaccines were available clearly show. When everyone in the country has been vaccinated, there will still be some deaths and they will almost all be in the older age groups who have a much higher risk from the virus due to their weaker immune system.

I'll probably be offered a booster in the autumn because I have mild asthma. I'll happily take it, because it will reduce my relatively low risk of serious illness and death form the virus even further. To turn it down would be stupid and I'm not stupid.

Pleased to see regarding the brain scans you now agree with me there is no evidence to suggest their is a problem only might, or maybe glad we got there eventually.
In that case do you not think you’ve been irresponsible with baseless fear mongering? Just to re-cap these were your words-
“Brain scans of those before and after infection seem to show that Covid-19 is neurotropic - it shrinks parts of your brain. At a significant enough level that it could certainly explain the "brain fog" so many people report post-Covid”
Anyone would think your on the big Pharma payroll?

I’m not interested in the totally inaccurate PCR test! You talk about idiocy FFS



If you have no symptoms you are not sick simple.
The increase in cases up to 30 June is due to massive increase in testing using this fraudulent PCR test.
But no increase in hospitalisation and virtually no-one dying - certainly not of covid. Wake up and smell the coffee and quit with the BS

jesus christ why even bother engaging when all you get in return is complete dribble

HOUSE!

"Fraudulent PCR test" was the last thing on my Covid bullshit bingo card so that's completed it. Thanks for your participation. I'm not going to bother watching the YouTube link even though it is only a couple of minutes long. You must know you're reaching when you are getting your information from a YouTube channel with less than 2,000 subscribers and whose few videos are all of a Covid-denialist bent. Here's a simple article from an academic with lots of laboratory experience which explains why the anti-PCR crowd are talking nonsense:

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking/covid-19-pcr-test-reliable-despite-commotion-about-ct-values

I'll not bother responding to the drivel about the brain scans because you obviously didn't notice my wording of "seems to show". The study had concerning findings which need to be investigated. Dismissing it out of hand is simply stupid and that's true whether you're an 'expert' or a halfwit. I don't think you are an 'expert', in case you are wondering.

Last reply to you. Good luck during the coming wave of Delta!

Christ, I can't believe I've spent an hour or two responding to you this week. What a terrible waste of my life.

Relevant:

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/172-new-covid-cases-confirmed-5594547

Quoted from mariner91

This thread is a wonderful example of how access to information doesn't necessarily mean you have any idea what you're talking about. Anyone can cut and paste from google. For example:



Is literally just the tagline from their own website. No insight, just copy and paste. The fact that Karol Sikora, a man who Imperial College had to take legal action against to stop his bogus claims of being a professor there, is the second member of their "Medicine, science and data" team should raise alarm bells with all but the most crazy conspiracy theorist.

Jesus is this the best you can do, insight was from the long list of all the contributors? There qualifications speak louder than words.
So after all you digging all you can come up with is a nothing story from nearly 20 years ago? That only the Guardian seemed to of reported on, which it seems I believe nothing ever came of it (correct me if I’m wrong) a mere oversight on the renowned Professors part. Probably coming from the Guardian will have something to do with his anti NHS stance.

But thanks for you’re great input👍

No there’s plenty which could be debunked from all of your posts, you have a very tenuous grasp of what constitutes fact and your inability to understand basic English leaves you misinterpreting virtually every paper you’ve ‘read’. I suspect you only read the headlines cause nobody would be stupid enough to come to your conclusions if they read them properly.

Unfortunately I don’t have the time or inclination to put as much effort in to my replies to a dullard as Maringer does but suffice to say  almost all you’ve written is complete twaddle.

Last point, Karol Sikora is an oncologist. One with a questionable history and one who’s previous actions would suggest he’s not averse to taking a bung. If someone is stupid enough to believe they hold the title of ‘professor’ at a particular faculty when they don’t, then I won’t hold much store by their opinions away from their particular field of expertise. He has no experience or track record in epidemiology or virology but his views get aired because they chime with the agenda of unintelligent conspiracy theorists such as yourself.

Embarrassing crass mudslinging that I don’t want to get into plus it’s off topic. But for the record he is an actual professor, so I’d take the word from him then some of the wannabes on here.

But again thanks for your great logic and reason you’ve really made me question myself.😂

Quoted from Humbercod

Embarrassing crass mudslinging that I don’t want to get into plus it’s off topic. But for the record he is an actual professor, so I’d take the word from him then some of the wannabes on here.

But again thanks for your great logic and reason you’ve really made me question myself.😂

He's a professor at the University of Buckingham, not Imperial College. But I suppose we all get mixed up where we've worked or studied or graduated from. He's also not a professor in epidemiology or virology. You may as well get a plumber's view on what's going wrong with your electrics. Totally bizarre that the people who's expertise is in this field, such as Chris Whitty, are denigrated yet this chap, who has a proven history of lying about things, is a reliable source apparently.

There's very little point having any discussion with you. You have shown a complete inability to understand the written word, you seemingly only read the title of an article or at least struggle to understand what the article actually states beyond the headline and your interpretation of statistics is baffling to say the least. You are the exact sort of person who nefarious organisations like Cambridge Analytica target with misinformation and frankly one of the worst things about the internet is it makes people believe that they understand a topic just because they have the ability to perform a quick google search.

Quoted from Maringer

Relevant:

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/172-new-covid-cases-confirmed-5594547

This old myth again.

Since Reach Group took over the Telegraph its reporting is disgusting, lacks facts, and prints anything to get attention. It is particularly good at Scunthorpe and district news and the reporters are from all over the country.

James Findlater is half-decent when pointed in the right direction. That apart I don't take any notice of what's in it.

OK, then. Try the government web site:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/search?postcode=DN35+8RQ

Just 140 cases reported on there so the Telewag does appear to be overstating it very slightly. However, it's a doubling of cases in 1 week (well, 98.9% increase if you want to be picky). Something we ought to be concerned about, perhaps? Especially as the 140 new cases confirmed today will have been infectious for a few days.

Hospitalisations are thankfully still at a very low level, but that is starting to increase quickly. The link between infections and hospitalisations is holding steady (albeit at a lower level to the pre-vaccine days):



Where the purple line goes, the red line follows in around 10 days.

Quoted from Maringer

OK, then. Try the government web site:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/search?postcode=DN35+8RQ

Just 140 cases reported on there so the Telewag does appear to be overstating it very slightly. However, it's a doubling of cases in 1 week (well, 98.9% increase if you want to be picky). Something we ought to be concerned about, perhaps? Especially as the 140 new cases confirmed today will have been infectious for a few days.

Before vaccination, I was very concerned about the spread of covid by children, young adults, and the 20'/30's. Mass gatherings, tourist areas open, time off for Christmas, etc. Many weren't concerned and were proved wrong, even today there is an anti-vax group.

I also saw pictures of many watching England games, not social distancing. There is talk now of not wearing faces masks. Concerned, yes for my safety and like-minded people. Others know the risk and ignore the circumstances.

As I always say, I respect people's choices.

Thursday 28th January 2021
Cases: 28,680
In Hospital: 34,909
On ventilation: 3,918
Deaths: 1,239

Today
Cases: 27,989
In hospital: 1,795
On ventilation: 287
Deaths: 22

Thursday 28th January 2021
20 days after the peak number of infections (68,053 on 8th January).

Today
?? days before the peak number of infections.


Thankfully, due to the vaccine rollout, we'll not be seeing the same number of hospitalisations and deaths as back in the last wave. However, the way Delta is spreading (an increase in cases of 72.3% in the past 7 days), we could be into the hundreds of thousands of daily infections before July is out. The number of infections taking place among younger people at present will invariably spread in older age groups in due course, though obviously at a lower rate than during the pre-vaccine days. Remains to be seen how many of these lead to hospitalisations. Hospitalisations were up about 5% week on week last Thursday. Up 16% this week. The trend is upwards so we could still end up with 10,000 hospitalisations by the end of July, though hopefully not as many as that.

Quoted from Maringer

Thursday 28th January 2021
20 days after the peak number of infections (68,053 on 8th January).

Today
?? days before the peak number of infections.


Thankfully, due to the vaccine rollout, we'll not be seeing the same number of hospitalisations and deaths as back in the last wave. However, the way Delta is spreading (an increase in cases of 72.3% in the past 7 days), we could be into the hundreds of thousands of daily infections before July is out. The number of infections taking place among younger people at present will invariably spread in older age groups in due course, though obviously at a lower rate than during the pre-vaccine days. Remains to be seen how many of these lead to hospitalisations. Hospitalisations were up about 5% week on week last Thursday. Up 16% this week. The trend is upwards so we could still end up with 10,000 hospitalisations by the end of July, though hopefully not as many as that.

I would argue respectfully these hundreds of thousands of daily infections you predict would not be actual positive Covid cases for various reason, one of which to throw into the mix would be these lateral flow kits which must be in every home now. I pared to January, and are being taken obsessively by many who simply have no symptoms.
There’s also the fact they suffer from accuracy problems and we can also add to the the fact they are easy for school teens to manipulate, every teen in the land must of heard or seen about the positive flow test tricks which are now widespread on social media.

Just to add one child or teen gets a positive the whole class at least will have to isolate, not sure if these will be classed as cases but will certainly add to the number of children self isolating figures, creating more panic, fear and tabloid headlines.

Having never done either test, nor have I ever used the app or signed in properly I’m not really sure how accurate the statistics can be, I know several people exactly the same.

They’ve altered recording and sharing of stats all the way through. I appreciate that people can show me the science etc but people should be forgiven if they’re a little fed up or bored to tears of it all now. The constant scaremongering, this way in which they’ve almost pitted the public against each other, those who’ve had the vaccine against those who haven’t and so forth has all become tiring.

The adding of symptoms which seemingly includes everything is mind boggling and to be honest, the moment the rules were openly bent and have been disregarded in some quarters for various reasons essentially means I take zero notice. I don’t just mean in this country either…

Quoted from aldi_01

Having never done either test, nor have I ever used the app or signed in properly I’m not really sure how accurate the statistics can be, I know several people exactly the same.

They’ve altered recording and sharing of stats all the way through. I appreciate that people can show me the science etc but people should be forgiven if they’re a little fed up or bored to tears of it all now. The constant scaremongering, this way in which they’ve almost pitted the public against each other, those who’ve had the vaccine against those who haven’t and so forth has all become tiring.

The adding of symptoms which seemingly includes everything is mind boggling and to be honest, the moment the rules were openly bent and have been disregarded in some quarters for various reasons essentially means I take zero notice. I don’t just mean in this country either…

And that continues with the "personal responsibility" line they have introduced with regards to facemasks/face coverings.
Even though their effectiveness can be questioned with them not been required in the first lockdown and total failure in enforcing them thereafter.

Aged 73 I was one of the earlier people to get both jabs which I was happy to have.

I had no side effects whatsoever ,

BUT

Since then I have been in hospital for a week with a lung infection.

Then for 3 weeks with heart failure to which I am told will stay with me for the rest of my life.

Does anybody know if this is down to the vaccine or would I have suffered with these ailments anyway ?

Thank you only sensible replys  please. :)

Quoted from grimsby pete

Aged 73 I was one of the earlier people to get both jabs which I was happy to have.

I had no side effects whatsoever ,

BUT

Since then I have been in hospital for a week with a lung infection.

Then for 3 weeks with heart failure to which I am told will stay with me for the rest of my life.

Does anybody know if this is down to the vaccine or would I have suffered with these ailments anyway ?

Thank you only sensible replys  please. :)

I think you'll be better off asking a medical professional rather than fellas on the internet.

Pretty much no chance of the vaccine having caused the problems as you were fully vaccinated a long while back. The rare issues which can arise (bloodclots with AZ and heart inflammation with Pfizer) seem to affect younger people in general and have a rapid onset - they seem to be a side-effect of the initial immune response mounted by your body. I'm sure your doctor would tell you the same and as Manchester Mariner suggests, that is the person you should be talking to!

Obviously, some people on here hold differing views, but they aren't based on available evidence.

Quoted from grimsby pete

Aged 73 I was one of the earlier people to get both jabs which I was happy to have.

I had no side effects whatsoever ,

BUT

Since then I have been in hospital for a week with a lung infection.

Then for 3 weeks with heart failure to which I am told will stay with me for the rest of my life.

Does anybody know if this is down to the vaccine or would I have suffered with these ailments anyway ?

Thank you only sensible replys  please. :)

Best advice Pete is to talk to your GP, if you can. Pester them because if you are worried the problem may be something and nothing, but the worry will add to your anxiety.

I tend to make a list if it's more than one thing on my mind so I don't forget anything.

Take care

Thanks I have an appointment with the heart failure nurse in a couple of weeks. I will ask her .


But

No harm in asking on here. :)

With over 11000 reported heart related reactions and 130+ heart related deaths after the vaccines alone, although small numbers in the grand scheme of things then It’s a reasonable question to ask Pete, just ignore anyone on here who tells you using the words ‘no chance’ and seek professional advice.

Alternatively, Pete, you could take the word of people who believe in conspiracy theories. Hope you're reassured by your medical team and get all the necessary treatment.

Quoted from Maringer

Alternatively, Pete, you could take the word of people who believe in conspiracy theories. Hope you're reassured by your medical team and get all the necessary treatment.

Vaccine/cardiac data released by the governments conservative yellow card date. No conspiracy.

You’ve got some nerve after that Covid brain shrinking episode, whilst telling everyone about those child Covid spreaders!

Only this morning Professor Anthony Brookes explained perfectly well on the radio that Children do not spread Covid! because they simply only have mild or no symptoms, and People with these mild or no symptoms transmit the virus very very poorly.

FAO Mariner 91
Professor Anthony Brookes is Professor of Genomics, Bioinformatics and a health data scientist at Leicester university, and there is no record of him taking a bung😂

Quoted from Humbercod

Vaccine/cardiac data released by the governments conservative yellow card date. No conspiracy.

You’ve got some nerve after that Covid brain shrinking episode, whilst telling everyone about those child Covid spreaders!

Only this morning Professor Anthony Brookes explained perfectly well on the radio that Children do not spread Covid! because they simply only have mild or no symptoms, and People with these mild or no symptoms transmit the virus very very poorly.

FAO Mariner 91
Professor Anthony Brookes is Professor of Genomics, Bioinformatics and a health data scientist at Leicester university, and there is no record of him taking a bung😂

Yes he is, no problem with that. Glad you've seen the light and actually now take information and opinions from people who's claims about their positions and titles aren't made up and who work in the relative field.  

Some things never change.

You still, still, still don't seem to understand that the Yellow Card data is only reports which might possibly be related to the vaccines. What's this, the third or fourth time you've repeated the assertion that all cases on there are caused by the vaccines? Don't you think the data from other countries in the world with high vaccination rates might show something different if your assertion was anywhere near true?

To make things easy for you, here is an excerpt from the introduction of the latest Yellow Card report:

Quoted Text

It is very important to note that a Yellow Card report does not necessarily mean the vaccine caused that reaction or event. We ask for any suspicions to be reported, even if the reporter isn’t sure if it was caused by the vaccine. Reports to the scheme are known as suspected adverse reactions (ADRs).

Many suspected ADRs reported on a Yellow Card do not have any relation to the vaccine or medicine and it is often coincidental that they both occurred around the same time. The reports are continually reviewed to detect possible new side effects that may require regulatory action, and to differentiate these from things that would have happened regardless of the vaccine or medicine being administered, for instance due to underlying or undiagnosed illness.

The vast, vast majority of Yellow Card reports are for known ADRs or for more serious harms will be coincidental. The fact that the risk factors leading to extremely rare bloodclots and heart problems have been isolated and investigated from the data shows that the system is useful. It would be foolish, no, not foolish - absolutely flipping idiotic - to think that even the majority of reports of serious ADRs on the Yellow Card system were related to the vaccines. It even says this in the reports themselves! How much more leading do you really need?

Professor Brookes (anti-vaxx guy for children and signatory of the GBD which shows where he's coming from - i.e. against the scientific consensus) apparently hasn't been using his obvious intellect much recently. If children do not spread Covid, why have case rates been so high among children in the past couple of months? Come on, it's not rocket science here. I suspect that the problem is that Prof Brookes has gone all in now - he's been promoting the GBD line for many months and now doesn't have either the self-awareness or honesty to admit that, OK, the original wildtype Covid didn't spread a great deal among children (which we knew was the case from the first wave of infections), but that Alpha spread quite a lot among children (see the rates before Lockdown #2) and Delta spreads like wildfire. The data we have shows it is almost 2.5 times as infectious as the original wildtype which appeared in Wuhan so it's not much of a flipping surprise children might catch and then spread it a touch more often.

See you are still wittering on about the study relating to possible neurological damage caused by infection. As I repeated last time I wasted time responding to your idiocy, the study showed significant (in brain terms) loss of grey matter using the pre- and post-infection biobank data. The understandable hypothesis is that this is caused by infection with Covid and the data appears to back that up. You've posted one evidence- and data-free rebuttal from a Covid-denialist group (who deny the safety of vaccines, the worth of masks, the risks of infection etc etc). Try finding something which provides a more reasoned analysis of the data. Probably best just to wait for peer review of the paper which I'm sure is ongoing right now. Let's hope the anaylsis was incorrect because today, the facade dropped. It the analysis was correct, it will prove to be an unprecedented health-care disaster.

Any claim that the government has been attempting to keep rates down was dashed with their announcement that they are likely to drop all restrictions on 19th July, in spite of rocketing infection numbers. In fact, rather than keeping things a little tighter (even keeping something as simple as a mask mandate) for even a few more weeks to allow more vaccine doses to be given and reduce the spread and impact of infections, they have pivoted right back to the 'Herd immunity by infection' route which they planned back in Spring 2020 before changing tack and denying it after they realised they had shat the bed with that particular plan.

If you're unvaccinated, as far as they are concerned, you're going to get it, so you might as well get it in the summer and not the winter. OK, a lot of people will become seriously ill and a lot will die but what was really bizarre was that there wasn't any mention or consideration of 'Long covid'. They've decided to GBD themselves so good luck to the young adults and children who will suffer disproportionately this summer. Also, anybody who works in customer-facing industries where many people won't be sensible enough to wear masks to help protect others from infection - shop workers, transport, customer service etc etc.

This summer is going to be a excrement show, unfortunately. I was rather looking forward to being able to relax a bit as well.

They government have been a joke throughout and ironically, they’re now backed in to a corner with own social controls…over a quarter of a million pupils isolating yet few actual cases…

Just open the lot, stop this rhetoric of people without a mask or vaccine or those who limp slightly to the left being the issue and crack on.

Quoted from Maringer

Some things never change.

You still, still, still don't seem to understand that the Yellow Card data is only reports which might possibly be related to the vaccines. What's this, the third or fourth time you've repeated the assertion that all cases on there are caused by the vaccines? Don't you think the data from other countries in the world with high vaccination rates might show something different if your assertion was anywhere near true?

To make things easy for you, here is an excerpt from the introduction of the latest Yellow Card report:



The vast, vast majority of Yellow Card reports are for known ADRs or for more serious harms will be coincidental. The fact that the risk factors leading to extremely rare bloodclots and heart problems have been isolated and investigated from the data shows that the system is useful. It would be foolish, no, not foolish - absolutely flipping idiotic - to think that even the majority of reports of serious ADRs on the Yellow Card system were related to the vaccines. It even says this in the reports themselves! How much more leading do you really need?

Professor Brookes (anti-vaxx guy for children and signatory of the GBD which shows where he's coming from - i.e. against the scientific consensus) apparently hasn't been using his obvious intellect much recently. If children do not spread Covid, why have case rates been so high among children in the past couple of months? Come on, it's not rocket science here. I suspect that the problem is that Prof Brookes has gone all in now - he's been promoting the GBD line for many months and now doesn't have either the self-awareness or honesty to admit that, OK, the original wildtype Covid didn't spread a great deal among children (which we knew was the case from the first wave of infections), but that Alpha spread quite a lot among children (see the rates before Lockdown #2) and Delta spreads like wildfire. The data we have shows it is almost 2.5 times as infectious as the original wildtype which appeared in Wuhan so it's not much of a flipping surprise children might catch and then spread it a touch more often.

See you are still wittering on about the study relating to possible neurological damage caused by infection. As I repeated last time I wasted time responding to your idiocy, the study showed significant (in brain terms) loss of grey matter using the pre- and post-infection biobank data. The understandable hypothesis is that this is caused by infection with Covid and the data appears to back that up. You've posted one evidence- and data-free rebuttal from a Covid-denialist group (who deny the safety of vaccines, the worth of masks, the risks of infection etc etc). Try finding something which provides a more reasoned analysis of the data. Probably best just to wait for peer review of the paper which I'm sure is ongoing right now. Let's hope the anaylsis was incorrect because today, the facade dropped. It the analysis was correct, it will prove to be an unprecedented health-care disaster.

Any claim that the government has been attempting to keep rates down was dashed with their announcement that they are likely to drop all restrictions on 19th July, in spite of rocketing infection numbers. In fact, rather than keeping things a little tighter (even keeping something as simple as a mask mandate) for even a few more weeks to allow more vaccine doses to be given and reduce the spread and impact of infections, they have pivoted right back to the 'Herd immunity by infection' route which they planned back in Spring 2020 before changing tack and denying it after they realised they had shat the bed with that particular plan.

If you're unvaccinated, as far as they are concerned, you're going to get it, so you might as well get it in the summer and not the winter. OK, a lot of people will become seriously ill and a lot will die but what was really bizarre was that there wasn't any mention or consideration of 'Long covid'. They've decided to GBD themselves so good luck to the young adults and children who will suffer disproportionately this summer. Also, anybody who works in customer-facing industries where many people won't be sensible enough to wear masks to help protect others from infection - shop workers, transport, customer service etc etc.

This summer is going to be a excrement show, unfortunately. I was rather looking forward to being able to relax a bit as well.

So predictable!  What are your PHD’s again, just remind me?
Just for the record I have never said anywhere that the yellow card reporting cases would all be actually linked to the vaccines nowhere! But you would have to be a prize sharp object of all proportion to rule out all reactions or deaths as some kind of coincidence.

I’m sure you regret going with the brain shrinking report that will disappear faster than a global warming alarmist, never mind getting peer reviewed. You didn’t read the Conversation report either then I suppose the researchers are not up to your higher qualification standards.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/covid-linked-to-loss-of-brain-tissue-but-correlation-doesnt-prove-causation-163183

I can’t say I’m sorry for you that lockdown seems to be coming to an end, you crack on keeping yourself locked away in misery typing excrement, with your masks firmly on, probably a special Amazon customer. Whilst the rest of us get back to normality actually living like human beings in the 21st Century should.

Sigh. Why do I bother?

Quoted Text

With over 11000 reported heart related reactions and 130+ heart related deaths after the vaccines alone

Certainly seems to indicate you think they are mostly related to the vaccines. I don't notice any sort of caveat about only a small proportion of them being likely to be caused by vaccinations. In case reading comprehension isn't your thing, I never claimed that none of them would be vaccine related.

I don't have a PhD and never claimed to have one, incidentally. I do have a BSc (computing) so can understand data when it is displayed to me. You ought to try it.

Next paragraph, you make yourself look (bizarrely) stupid by levering in some denial of global warming, which is amusing seeing as it came less than a week after a record heatwave of almost 50 degrees in Canada which is at a similar latitude to Newcastle! Yes, I know weather isn't indicative of climate change, but repeated extreme weather events around the globe almost certainly are.

The Conversation article doesn't say what you think it says. Probably that reading comprehension issue again. It notes that the correlation does not equal causation situation is in effect, which is true. It doesn't debunk the paper, just notes a couple of possible reasons for the findings which might not match the hypothesis. Which is why I said the paper may indicate there is a serious problem. That's what peer review is for and we await the results and further investigations. I'm personally working on the precautionary principle because, well, Covid-19 is a novel coronavirus and we have no flipping clue about the long term effects of the virus yet, whether to adults or children.

After dropping my daughter off at nursery today, I went to work, nipped to the shop at lunchtime, picked up my daughter and son after work and then watched the football. I wore my mask in the shop and when collecting my daughter at nursery. Because I'm not a flipping idiot. I'll continue to wear a mask for a number of months at least when I feel it necessary because this novel coronavirus, whose long term effects we know sweet F.A. about, is currently surging and will be hitting infection rates very shortly. Almost certainly within the next 2 weeks. The mask will protect me a little and others a lot (in case I have a asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic infection), so I only think it fair not to inadvertently give somebody's Dad or Grandma a dose of a virus which could kill them, just because wearing a mask is 'inconvenient'. (It really isn't that inconvenient, by the way).

Should human beings in the 21st Century live like self-centred, ignorant arseholes, then? That seems to be your shtick.

Welcome to my blocklist, cretin. Membership: you.

Famous quote from Mark Twain, “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.” I'm taking heed.

Good luck. I've a feeling you'll need it.

Thank intercourse for that.

Helpful comment, bro. Anything useful or interesting to add?

Had my first vaccine, second one in august.
Currently got covid, I’m rough as a badgers bottom and keep thinking to myself that I can’t imagine how totally unvaccinated people are feeling when they get it.

Sounds nasty. You should hopefully be feeling a lot better by August and the good news is that vaccination after infection should provide the best protection you can get against reinfection any time in the immediate future. You'll be able to relax during the summer months more than most.

Take it easy while you recover.

Quoted from Neilo83

Had my first vaccine, second one in august.
Currently got covid, I’m rough as a badgers bottom and keep thinking to myself that I can’t imagine how totally unvaccinated people are feeling when they get it.

Hope you recover soon.
Take care.

Hope you feel ok Neilo and recover very soon.

Take care mate.

Chris

Infections are rocketing and will continue to rocket with the spread of Delta, tens and probably hundreds of thousands will develop 'Long Covid' symptoms of varying severity, tens of thousands more will die this year and yet fools such as yourself are still decrying the vaccines as some sort of an experimental government conspiracy. Utter madness. The government are flipping it up entirely yet again and it's no wonder they are getting away with it when people read ludicrous nonsense on facebook and think they know more than the scientists.[/quote]

Can I put a bet on the fact that there won't be 'tens of thousands' deaths this year?

???
Who are you referring to?
Offering a wager on the number of deaths is really quite sad & cringeworthy.

Is long Covid acruslly real or is there an element of it being psychosomatic?

That’s a genuine question mind, do people get long flu? Are there long versions of other viruses or just this one?

Is it similar to people being scared of returning to work? Is that legit or is it because they’ve almost been told it’s frightening and it’s created an anxiety. If folk had just been told, ‘you’re back at work Monday’ would people be as anxious as they claim?

These are genuine questions, not designed to demonise or diminish folk thinking that way, curiousity I guess.

As for the vaccine, I’ve met more folk testing postive after the vaccine than before…

It’s all become a genuine farce now…Lord of the flies from Monday and we’re sorted…

At the very beginning of this crisis I wondered if there would be a chance of people ‘not getting over it’ much like the elderly sometimes don’t fully recover from a bad dose of the flu or a pneumonia or whatever. That appears to be long covid to my uneducated eye.

Monday is going to bring more problems that it solves. That said - I’ve taken this more seriously than many but was never daft enough to download an app designed by a corrupt government that sometimes tells you to stay at home. The reliance some employers place on this app to tell who to go home for ten days is farcical.

Long Covid is real. I have a teenage family member who has been very unwell for months. Regarding the doubters about post-viral syndromes of various sorts, if Guillain-Barre is an accepted condition, why assume that all of those suffering long-term illness which isn't diagnosed are just making it up in their heads? Doesn't make sense. Many hundreds of medics are stuggling with long covid symptoms, so are they faking it? It exists.

Long Covid appears to be an autoimmune disease caused by infection. There will hopefully be a test to help diagnose this sooner rather than later:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/12/long-covid-rogue-antibody-discovery-raises-hope-of-blood-test

Other news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57840825

40% of younger and healthy people hospitalised with Covid suffer organ damage.

I think that Cambridgefish was probably trying to quote one of my earlier posts, but screwed it up. The Sage forecasts said around 40,000 deaths were expected in their central (i.e. most likely) estimate for the rest of the year. No reason to assume this will be incorrect as yet:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2283813-covid-19-deaths-in-england-could-peak-at-100-per-day-in-august/

Headline says could peak at 100 deaths a day, forecast says 100-200 deaths a day from 100,000 cases. I think the central estimate is probably optimistic, considering we're already over 50,000 cases a day. That Sage modelling was dated 7th July.

All the stuff I've posted above has been released the past week. People should be aware of this information.

Here's a good breakdown of what we know about the Delta pandemic currently sweeping through younger, unvaccinated and unfortunate vaccinated older people in our country:



TLDR: keep wearing your masks, especially in public enclosed spaces such as shops which some people with compromised immune systems really can't avoid. Good luck in pubs and clubs if you want to chance your arm. You'll probably be OK and the other patrons have a choice. Hopefully, none of the serving staff will have health issues to put them at more risk if you unknowingly infect them. Same goes for your older family members.

What if people have never worn a mask but have also never actually had it? Are they lucky or is there some other alternative? Is the isolation we were forced in to at the beginning having a damaging effect on immunity?

With a government that have made it up as they’ve gone along it’s hard to truly see if anything could’ve been prevented or indeed whether it’s been worse than expected.

I don’t think anyone is doubting it but the list of symptoms has grown and shrunk to seemingly suit whatever agenda is that week and now we’re in a position where you’re going to see those in society making the choice they’re given and those who make a different choice, who aren’t wrong but are in the eyes of other Becauee someone chooses or chooses not to wear a mask…

Quoted from LH

At the very beginning of this crisis I wondered if there would be a chance of people ‘not getting over it’ much like the elderly sometimes don’t fully recover from a bad dose of the flu or a pneumonia or whatever. That appears to be long covid to my uneducated eye.

Monday is going to bring more problems that it solves. That said - I’ve taken this more seriously than many but was never daft enough to download an app designed by a corrupt government that sometimes tells you to stay at home. The reliance some employers place on this app to tell who to go home for ten days is farcical.

It is laughable isn't.
World beating track & trace system as it was sold.
Many realise the absurdity of it & have now deleted it.
Ridiculous even downloading it in the first place with the governments record of mismanagement.
Laughing stock,labelling it as a "pingdemic"
Utter embarrassment.

Quoted from Maringer

Long Covid is real. I have a teenage family member who has been very unwell for months. Regarding the doubters about post-viral syndromes of various sorts, if Guillain-Barre is an accepted condition, why assume that all of those suffering long-term illness which isn't diagnosed are just making it up in their heads? Doesn't make sense. Many hundreds of medics are stuggling with long covid symptoms, so are they faking it? It exists.

Long Covid appears to be an autoimmune disease caused by infection. There will hopefully be a test to help diagnose this sooner rather than later:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/12/long-covid-rogue-antibody-discovery-raises-hope-of-blood-test

Other news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57840825

40% of younger and healthy people hospitalised with Covid suffer organ damage.

I think that Cambridgefish was probably trying to quote one of my earlier posts, but screwed it up. The Sage forecasts said around 40,000 deaths were expected in their central (i.e. most likely) estimate for the rest of the year. No reason to assume this will be incorrect as yet:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2283813-covid-19-deaths-in-england-could-peak-at-100-per-day-in-august/

Headline says could peak at 100 deaths a day, forecast says 100-200 deaths a day from 100,000 cases. I think the central estimate is probably optimistic, considering we're already over 50,000 cases a day. That Sage modelling was dated 7th July.

All the stuff I've posted above has been released the past week. People should be aware of this information.

Here's a good breakdown of what we know about the Delta pandemic currently sweeping through younger, unvaccinated and unfortunate vaccinated older people in our country:

Tweet 1414935993560571911 will appear here...

TLDR: keep wearing your masks, especially in public enclosed spaces such as shops which some people with compromised immune systems really can't avoid. Good luck in pubs and clubs if you want to chance your arm. You'll probably be OK and the other patrons have a choice. Hopefully, none of the serving staff will have health issues to put them at more risk if you unknowingly infect them. Same goes for your older family members.

All good research & advice but the vast majority of people will ignore this & return to a form of normality as we are seeing now.

Btw is the person quoted on the Twitter feed a health professional?
He seems to be promoting mixing two different vaccines?
Article here about his non qualifications.yes he has access to Google.......

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/ihuman/covid-19-blog/what-does-covid-19-mean-expertise-case-tomas-pueyo

Quoted from Stadium

It is laughable isn't.
World beating track & trace system as it was sold.
Many realise the absurdity of it & have now deleted it.
Ridiculous even downloading it in the first place with the governments record of mismanagement.
Laughing stock,labelling it as a "pingdemic"
Utter embarrassment.

My workplace sent home 10 or so people the other night because they’d been pinged but not anybody without the app who’d car shared with them this week 🤡

People deleting the app, people facing loss of cash and work, can’t blame them…just open the flipping world up and crack.

Quoted from aldi_01

What if people have never worn a mask but have also never actually had it? Are they lucky or is there some other alternative? Is the isolation we were forced in to at the beginning having a damaging effect on immunity?

With a government that have made it up as they’ve gone along it’s hard to truly see if anything could’ve been prevented or indeed whether it’s been worse than expected.

I don’t think anyone is doubting it but the list of symptoms has grown and shrunk to seemingly suit whatever agenda is that week and now we’re in a position where you’re going to see those in society making the choice they’re given and those who make a different choice, who aren’t wrong but are in the eyes of other Becauee someone chooses or chooses not to wear a mask…

When this is all over it would not surprise me in the slightest if there's a report out saying masks were no good and made things worse.

I can understand medical-grade masks, properly fitted and brand new might make a difference, but the idea that a piece of scruffy ill-fitting material pulled from a pocket and hastily put on before doing the weekly shop would make a difference seems a bit fanciful to me.

I have worn a mask despite my reservations mainly because I did not want an argument every time I went to Aldi, but you have to ask if they had been at all effective why have there still been so many cases? Although it has stopped flu dead in its tracks - funny that.  ;D

Whatever the whys and where fors, we have to learn to live with it now the vast majority has been vaccinated/infected. There will not be a normal to go back to if we destroy the economy by being risk averse.

Javid tests positive. Met with Sunak and Johnson this week so would assume they’ll have to isolate themselves/or be part of a very exclusive pilot scheme.  Seems a great time to be hidden away from the public/something that will make the peasants revolt.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

When this is all over it would not surprise me in the slightest if there's a report out saying masks were no good and made things worse.

I can understand medical-grade masks, properly fitted and brand new might make a difference, but the idea that a piece of scruffy ill-fitting material pulled from a pocket and hastily put on before doing the weekly shop would make a difference seems a bit fanciful to me.

I have worn a mask despite my reservations mainly because I did not want an argument every time I went to Aldi, but you have to ask if they had been at all effective why have there still been so many cases? Although it has stopped flu dead in its tracks - funny that.  ;D

Whatever the whys and where fors, we have to learn to live with it now the vast majority has been vaccinated/infected. There will not be a normal to go back to if we destroy the economy by being risk averse.

Standard face coverings are just "comfort blankets" that do little to reduce the spread of Covid particles, a scientist advising Sage on ventilation has said.

Dr Colin Axon, who has advised the government on minimising the risk of cross-infection in supermarkets, accused medics of presenting a "cartoonish" view of how how tiny particles travel through the air.

He warned some cloth masks have gaps which are invisible to the naked eye, but are 500,000 times the size of viral Covid particles.

"The small sizes are not easily understood but an imperfect analogy would be to imagine marbles fired at builders' scaffolding, some might hit a pole and rebound, but obviously most will fly through," he told The Telegraph.

The mask debate has been reignited this week after the Government published 'Freedom Day' guidance recommending their continued use. It led to Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, enforcing their continued use on the London Underground.

Dr Axon said the public need to be offered a wider view of the science behind face masks, rather than the "partial view" of information being pushed by medics over their effectiveness.

"Medics have this cartoonised view of how particles move through the air - it's not their fault, it's not their domain - they've got a cartoonish view of how the world is," he said.

"Once a particle is not on a biological surface it is no longer a biomedical issue, it is simply about physics. The public has only a partial view of the story if information only comes from one type of source. Medics have some of the answers but not a whole view."

Dr Axon, Brunel University's senior lecturer in engineering, said that the true mechanisms involved are best evaluated through science.

"When the particle enters another body it returns to a biomedical issue but the mask debate is about the particle journey," he said.

"Masks can catch droplets and sputum from a cough but what is important is that SARS CoV-2 is predominantly distributed by tiny aerosols."

Dr Axon said that medics were "unable to comprehend" the miniscule elements at play, adding: "A Covid viral particle is around 100 nanometres, material gaps in blue surgical masks are up to 1,000 times that size, cloth mask gaps can be 500,000 times the size."

Dr Axon, whose report on ventilation in supermarkets was used by both Nervtag and Sage to aid decisions, says that medics "cannot have it both ways" over asymptomatic spread.

He added: "Not everyone carrying Covid is coughing, but they are still breathing, those aerosols escape masks and will render the mask ineffective."

Droplets from coughs are much larger, and more likely to be stopped by a properly used mask, Dr Axon says. An Oxford study last summer concluded that masks were "effective" in reducing the spread of the virus.

'We are entrenching bad behaviour'
However, other studies have cast doubt on their effectiveness. A subsequent Danish study involving 6,000 people concluded that there was no statistical difference in infection spread in non-wearers, while data on US states with non-mandated usage failed to show a correlated uptick in cases.

"The public were demanding something must be done, they got masks, it is just a comfort blanket," Dr Axon noted. "But now it is entrenched, and we are entrenching bad behaviour.

"All around the world you can look at mask mandates and superimpose on infection rates, you cannot see that mask mandates made any effect whatsoever.

"The best thing you can say about any mask is that any positive effect they do have is too small to be measured."

Quoted from Stadium

Standard face coverings are just "comfort blankets" that do little to reduce the spread of Covid particles, a scientist advising Sage on ventilation has said.

Dr Colin Axon, who has advised the government on minimising the risk of cross-infection in supermarkets, accused medics of presenting a "cartoonish" view of how how tiny particles travel through the air.

He warned some cloth masks have gaps which are invisible to the naked eye, but are 500,000 times the size of viral Covid particles.

"The small sizes are not easily understood but an imperfect analogy would be to imagine marbles fired at builders' scaffolding, some might hit a pole and rebound, but obviously most will fly through," he told The Telegraph.

The mask debate has been reignited this week after the Government published 'Freedom Day' guidance recommending their continued use. It led to Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, enforcing their continued use on the London Underground.

Dr Axon said the public need to be offered a wider view of the science behind face masks, rather than the "partial view" of information being pushed by medics over their effectiveness.

"Medics have this cartoonised view of how particles move through the air - it's not their fault, it's not their domain - they've got a cartoonish view of how the world is," he said.

"Once a particle is not on a biological surface it is no longer a biomedical issue, it is simply about physics. The public has only a partial view of the story if information only comes from one type of source. Medics have some of the answers but not a whole view."

Dr Axon, Brunel University's senior lecturer in engineering, said that the true mechanisms involved are best evaluated through science.

"When the particle enters another body it returns to a biomedical issue but the mask debate is about the particle journey," he said.

"Masks can catch droplets and sputum from a cough but what is important is that SARS CoV-2 is predominantly distributed by tiny aerosols."

Dr Axon said that medics were "unable to comprehend" the miniscule elements at play, adding: "A Covid viral particle is around 100 nanometres, material gaps in blue surgical masks are up to 1,000 times that size, cloth mask gaps can be 500,000 times the size."

Dr Axon, whose report on ventilation in supermarkets was used by both Nervtag and Sage to aid decisions, says that medics "cannot have it both ways" over asymptomatic spread.

He added: "Not everyone carrying Covid is coughing, but they are still breathing, those aerosols escape masks and will render the mask ineffective."

Droplets from coughs are much larger, and more likely to be stopped by a properly used mask, Dr Axon says. An Oxford study last summer concluded that masks were "effective" in reducing the spread of the virus.

'We are entrenching bad behaviour'
However, other studies have cast doubt on their effectiveness. A subsequent Danish study involving 6,000 people concluded that there was no statistical difference in infection spread in non-wearers, while data on US states with non-mandated usage failed to show a correlated uptick in cases.

"The public were demanding something must be done, they got masks, it is just a comfort blanket," Dr Axon noted. "But now it is entrenched, and we are entrenching bad behaviour.

"All around the world you can look at mask mandates and superimpose on infection rates, you cannot see that mask mandates made any effect whatsoever.

"The best thing you can say about any mask is that any positive effect they do have is too small to be measured."

As with all other experts that have critical of things like masks, I’m sure their views will be pushed back or ignored…can’t have people being given information that questions the whole thing. That’s not good for social control and project fear…

We’re literally living on Animal Farm.

"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others, unless those animals U Turn in a couple of hours, but they're still more equal than others mind." Animal Farm 2. (2021)

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

When this is all over it would not surprise me in the slightest if there's a report out saying masks were no good and made things worse.

I can understand medical-grade masks, properly fitted and brand new might make a difference, but the idea that a piece of scruffy ill-fitting material pulled from a pocket and hastily put on before doing the weekly shop would make a difference seems a bit fanciful to me.

I have worn a mask despite my reservations mainly because I did not want an argument every time I went to Aldi, but you have to ask if they had been at all effective why have there still been so many cases? Although it has stopped flu dead in its tracks - funny that.  ;D

Whatever the whys and where fors, we have to learn to live with it now the vast majority has been vaccinated/infected. There will not be a normal to go back to if we destroy the economy by being risk averse.

Agree and so do many experts.

Interesting thoigh, as I’ve said before, those telling the folk that have been sceptical that we should look at the science, listen to the experts yet when experts come out and say things like this people’s are silent or ignore it…

"Follow the science" is similar to "levelling up and building back better" or "Brexit means Brexit" in that it's just a simple catchphrase thought up by a bunch of advisers but ultimately massively vague. Science is a cacophony of theories which get proven and disproven back and forth as time goes by. Like anything, the internet makes it more murky and confusing as you can find pretty much any science to follow which falls in line with your own motivations, prejudices and politics. And that seemingly includes members of SAGE as well as youtube video producers.

Ultimately it's a big clusterfuck of confusion and all you can do really is hope you're doing the right thing.

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

"Follow the science" is similar to "levelling up and building back better" or "Brexit means Brexit" in that it's just a simple catchphrase thought up by a bunch of advisers but ultimately massively vague. Science is a cacophony of theories which get proven and disproven back and forth as time goes by. Like anything, the internet makes it more murky and confusing as you can find pretty much any science to follow which falls in line with your own motivations, prejudices and politics. And that seemingly includes members of SAGE as well as youtube video producers.

Ultimately it's a big clusterfuck of confusion and all you can do really is hope you're doing the right thing.

Bob on MM.

I wear a mask when asked because it's just easier than standing and having a philosophical debate about the merits or otherwise of wearing one. It's no hardship and I wear one for work most days anyway.


I'm not convinced they do a lot, other than give people reassurance, but there's nothing wrong with that.

Quoted from Humbercod

Agree and so do many experts.

Tweet 1416111828258729989 will appear here...

"Surgical masks, once put on are never touched again, ever..."

Oops! Is she telling me the flimsy masks we have hanging from the gearstick for convenience, that we keep endlessly touching and adjusting and touching some more and pulling down a bit and have gone round Aldi a few dozen times won't cut the mustard?

These dissenting views from experts and GP's and people equally qualified as the Sage experts have been around from day one, but they scarcely get a mention at all in the MSM, and you have to wonder why that is. I was surprised to see the sceptical article quoted a few posts ago appear in the Daily Telegraph to be honest, but perhaps they will start appearing now.

It was too late coming but I think the recent G7 gave the game away when they were filmed laughing and joking without a mask in sight. Similarly how Boris thought he could get away with not isolating after being "pinged" is beyond parody. Mind you, also beyond parody is someone who has had a bad dose of covid, and has since had 2 jabs and still has to self isolate! Insane.

Every bloody day it's fear, fear and more fear. The latest example is that if covid doesn't get us, then the forthcoming flu epidemic will, or any other respiratory illness they care to mention. What they don't seem to say though is that we have had this very same scenario every winter since Adam was a lad, but some winters are worse than others. What I do know is that with vaccines and modern medicines we are likely to live to a greater age than our forebears so let's just enjoy it.

If you choose to reuse single use masks that is user error and not masks not working isn’t it?

Quoted from LH

If you choose to reuse single use masks that is user error and not masks not working isn’t it?

It is in a way but how many people put a new mask on each time they go out?

In any event, as the Telegraph piece pointed out, the microscopic covid particles can easily get through the holes in the masks, brand new or not.

Ginny's point about them being a re-assurance for some people is a good one, but on the other hand you have the added complications of some people finding it difficult to communicate with masks, finding it difficult to hear what is being said, and the health risks of wearing masks that are not, shall we say, straight from the wrapping, and I think that GP said she has to treat children with anxiety problems because of mask-wearing.

It will be interesting from tomorrow to see the percentage of people who will continue to wear them.

Quoted from LH

If you choose to reuse single use masks that is user error and not masks not working isn’t it?

What about those who bought those waste of time cloth masks but never wash them?

I’ve literally had the same disposable mask since last august…on the rare occasion it’s been used I’m well aware it serves no purpose.

User error or not, given the capitalist greed and inflated prices of masks, particularly the ones that acruslly work, you have to forgive people for not wanting to spend the money…if masks and wearing one was so imperative perhaps they could’ve provided those for free…they managed 37bn to folk to set up an app that doesn’t work…

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

"Surgical masks, once put on are never touched again, ever..."

Oops! Is she telling me the flimsy masks we have hanging from the gearstick for convenience, that we keep endlessly touching and adjusting and touching some more and pulling down a bit and have gone round Aldi a few dozen times won't cut the mustard?

These dissenting views from experts and GP's and people equally qualified as the Sage experts have been around from day one, but they scarcely get a mention at all in the MSM, and you have to wonder why that is. I was surprised to see the sceptical article quoted a few posts ago appear in the Daily Telegraph to be honest, but perhaps they will start appearing now.

It was too late coming but I think the recent G7 gave the game away when they were filmed laughing and joking without a mask in sight. Similarly how Boris thought he could get away with not isolating after being "pinged" is beyond parody.

Every bloody day it's fear, fear and more fear. The latest example is that if covid doesn't get us, then the forthcoming flu epidemic will, or any other respiratory illness they care to mention. What they don't seem to say though is that we have had this very same scenario every winter since Adam was a lad, but some winters are worse than others. What I do know is that with vaccines and modern medicines we are likely to live to a greater age than our forebears so let's just enjoy it.

You mean to tell me I’m not the only one with this scruffy ill-fitting mask hanging from my gear stick 😂

The world has changed for the worse no doubt, I just hope one day we can all return to the days before fear and endless restrictions. But you’re right Lew, lets all try to enjoy life!  A simple message that’s been metaphorically buried (were only here for a visit as Alan Brazil would say). But deep down I think many of us sadly now expect that the worse is yet to come, and by that I’m talking more Government/social control. So with that in mind It’s no time for a hermit life, it’s time to pack some extra bottles of Rioja for my upcoming camping trip and enjoy the rest of summer as much as I possible can, and maybe, hopefully even see Town get off to a flyer.

Quoted from aldi_01

What about those who bought those waste of time cloth masks but never wash them?

I’ve literally had the same disposable mask since last august…on the rare occasion it’s been used I’m well aware it serves no purpose.

User error or not, given the capitalist greed and inflated prices of masks, particularly the ones that acruslly work, you have to forgive people for not wanting to spend the money…if masks and wearing one was so imperative perhaps they could’ve provided those for free…they managed 37bn to folk to set up an app that doesn’t work…

Reusing a cloth mask would still be user error though wouldn’t it? The whole reason they phased masks in was due to capitalist greed/supply and demand. If they’d said from the off that everyone would need them quickly they’d have all gone and the prices for making them sky rocketing. None are 100% effective but it was never said they were.

Unfortunately, it appears that Dr Axon doesn't know what he's talking about:



Prof Noakes specialises in research into airborne pathogens and infections and is a Sage member because of this expertise. Dr Axon doesn't and also doesn't advise Sage, either. He's been co-author of one paper sent to them, unlike Prof Noakes.

The real experts all agree that decent marks reduce your chance of contracting the virus a little (rising to a lot if you're using an FFP2/FFP3 mask), but reduce the chance of you infecting others by a lot. In Germany, most people wear FFP2 masks and their infection rates certainly seem a lot lower than ours. Of course, their government isn't pursuing an idiotic 'herd immunity via infection' scheme, either.

Quoted from Stadium

All good research & advice but the vast majority of people will ignore this & return to a form of normality as we are seeing now.

Btw is the person quoted on the Twitter feed a health professional?
He seems to be promoting mixing two different vaccines?
Article here about his non qualifications.yes he has access to Google.......

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/ihuman/covid-19-blog/what-does-covid-19-mean-expertise-case-tomas-pueyo

If Larry Brilliant thinks Tomas Pueyo knows his stuff when it comes to sorting the wheat from the chaff in the evidence, I'm inclined to believe that's the case. Brilliant is a public health expert who worked for the WHO during the eradication of smallpox.

As for mixing of vaccine types, that is fundamentally the way in which the Russian Sputnik vaccine works - two different vaccines based off two different adenoviruses and this should provide a broader immune response. Despite all the propaganda and nonsense spouted by the Russian investment fund which is promoting the Sputnik vaccine, it is technically a pretty good one. Only issue is that they don't have the production capacity and scaling issues are obviously causing them problems.

No doubt that we'll be looking at mixing the vaccine types in the near future and Oxford has been testing this:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-28-mixed-oxfordpfizer-vaccine-schedules-generate-robust-immune-response-against-covid

The Germans look set to authorise mixing soon:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-alters-vaccine-mix-better-tackle-delta-variant-2021-07-02/

If 'booster' doses of vaccines are to be given later in the year, I think that plenty of us will be receiving different vaccine types to those received in our earlier doses. Possibly AZ/Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax/Valneva.

Longer-term, the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines means we'll probably end up getting those a lot of the time, but alternatives are always a good thing.

More experts recommending that masking is continued:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/if-you-dont-wear-a-mask-the-virus-spreads-further-its-as-simple-as-that

As Prof Paul Hunter notes in that article about mask wearing:

Quoted Text

Estimates vary but they probably reduce transmission somewhere between 10 and 25%.

Doesn't sound a lot, eh? But with R0 rate currently around 1.4, a 25% reduction in transmission would save a massive number of forward infections and a 10% reduction would save a lot of infections.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

In any event, as the Telegraph piece pointed out, the microscopic covid particles can easily get through the holes in the masks, brand new or not.

But the Telegraph article was completely incorrect. In fact, much of the stuff they've been putting out as 19th July approached is nothing more than ludicrous propaganda. Well, even more ludicrous coming from the Telegraph which long since lost any claim to be interested in fact.

Quoted from Maringer

But the Telegraph article was completely incorrect. In fact, much of the stuff they've been putting out as 19th July approached is nothing more than ludicrous propaganda. Well, even more ludicrous coming from the Telegraph which long since lost any claim to be interested in fact.

But much of the stuff put out in general has been propaganda. Experts telling us one thing and doing the other, incompetent leaders telling us one thing, doing the other. Obsession with Covid death rates but ignoring anything else that has caused large amounts of deaths, tack and trace that doesn’t work. People losing jobs left right and centre for what? Businesses on their bottom? Social care and education systems on a knife edge Becauee of incompetent leadership and a virus that will never go away yet people don’t seem to want to figure a way of going back to normal and cracking on.

It’s all been orchestrated and plenty of science argues against those things…Christ, even the hospitals have given up.

Quoted from aldi_01

But much of the stuff put out in general has been propaganda. Experts telling us one thing and doing the other, incompetent leaders telling us one thing, doing the other. Obsession with Covid death rates but ignoring anything else that has caused large amounts of deaths, tack and trace that doesn’t work. People losing jobs left right and centre for what? Businesses on their bottom? Social care and education systems on a knife edge Becauee of incompetent leadership and a virus that will never go away yet people don’t seem to want to figure a way of going back to normal and cracking on.

It’s all been orchestrated and plenty of science argues against those things…Christ, even the hospitals have given up.

The trouble with the experts is they lose their sense of perspective. They are human and have the same failings as the rest of us with their own prejudices and view of the world; from a scientific position everything seems straightforward - do xyz and certain things will happen. Trouble is, when those things meet the real world, it breaks down. Take mask wearing. Maringers expert thinks it does a good job. If I took him to Aldi he would see people not wearing them, half wearing them, touching them, adjusting them, taking them off to get a breath of fresh air. He would see people with visors, he would see people with fancy scarves over their nose and mouth to look cool, he would see in my case a GTFC fabric mask which I know is no good but I also appreciate the whole thing is a nonsense - in the real world. The experts don't seem to live in that world. Everyone wearing a high grade, brand new mask every time they went shopping might make a difference, but it will never happen.  

Covid has a 99% survival rate. Of course it is terrible for those affected, and those who have lost loved ones, but the vast, vast majority of people who have died have had a range of other problems and the biggest factor is old age. That is the way nature works.

Every adult in the UK has been offered the vaccine. Hospital admissions remain low; deaths remain low. The damage being done to the economy, peoples mental health, children's anxieties, other illnesses that have been ignored leading to death, perfectly fit and healthy people being tortured by worrying about a ping from a ludicrous app. Schoolchildren losing time they will never get back. Businesses are going bust every day; the present situation is completely unsustainable and as Sir Graham Brady said the other day masks are there to put the fear of God into people and to coerce them into believing death is around every corner.

We have to get back to normal PDQ or there will not be a normal to go back to.

Freedom day, the first customer in my newsagent went in with no mask, that's their choice. Then coughs on purpose in front of the shop asst., who's wearing a mask.

I seriously would not want the idiot to get covid but would recommend him for a brain transplant.

Covid is more than likely here to stay, just as the flu is. We need people to act sensibly and if you need to cough, or blow your nose, then do it into a tissue and bin the tissue. People should be respectful of the health of others.

Quoted from DB

Freedom day, the first customer in my newsagent went in with no mask, that's their choice. Then coughs on purpose in front of the shop asst., who's wearing a mask.

I seriously would not want the idiot to get covid but would recommend him for a brain transplant.

Covid is more than likely here to stay, just as the flu is. We need people to act sensibly and if you need to cough, or blow your nose, then do it into a tissue and bin the tissue. People should be respectful of the health of others.

It's probably stuff like this which is going to cause more and more agro in the next month or so. People who have picked a pro or anti mask side and want to over emphasize it in shops/on public transport.

I mean I sneezed in the supermarket but it’s impossible for me to do that on purpose…

The woman stood shaking her head Becauee people were just going in, not wasting their time cleaning trolleys, getting their excrement and leaving was hilarious…

He's back with an updated prediction but zero credibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

Quoted from Maringer

But the Telegraph article was completely incorrect. In fact, much of the stuff they've been putting out as 19th July approached is nothing more than ludicrous propaganda. Well, even more ludicrous coming from the Telegraph which long since lost any claim to be interested in fact.

Important words: *some, *cloth masks.
Proper face masks worn correctly do work.

More misleading tabloid rubbish it would seem - https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newswise.com/coronavirus/joint-statement-of-the-flccc-alliance-and-british-ivermectin-recommendation-development-group-on-retraction-of-early-research-on-ivermectin

Societal segregation incoming…more absolute drivel and lunacy incoming.

After all the denials the vaccine passports are now on the way, and the  conspiracy theorists keep getting it right!

Quoted from Humbercod

After all the denials the vaccine passports are now on the way, and the  conspiracy theorists keep getting it right!

Quoted from Stadium

Important words: *some, *cloth masks.
Proper face masks worn correctly do work.

Any reasonable mask works to some degree, including multi-layer cloth masks and even single-layer masks. Obviously, FFP2/FFP3 is much better than a single-layer mask, but it's still better than nothing in terms of transmitting to other people, which is what masks are most useful for. Dr Axon isn't an expert in the field in which he was quoted and the Sage expert in that field was outraged by the Telegraph article and said it should be corrected. I'm guessing it wasn't.

Anyway, it will be interesting (and disturbing) to see the trajectory from a week or so onwards. Even with a mask mandate before today, infections are up 41.2% over the past 7 days. Deaths are up 48% over the past 7 days, hospitalisations up 39.5%. Providing those rates continue, we'll be double the current rate of infections by the end of the month. The question then, is how many of the infections will be finding their way out of the younger population who aren't generally badly affected and may have very mild symptoms and then on into the more vulnerable populations, i.e. the elderly, immunosuppressed people (including hundreds of thousands of people being treated for cancers), millions of people living with diabetes and unlucky people who seem to be badly impacted due to genetic quirks. The death rate is likely to increase a huge amount yet, unfortunately, and it's amazing that people have become so blase about it all. One slight hope is that a lot of the infections we're seeing now are due to the Euros effect i.e. gatherings related to the football which have now ceased. If they provided a higher bump than there might have been, then perhaps the rate of increase will drop (still not a fall), but it will be difficult to tell until we've seen how much the dropping of restrictions today will increase the rates. Infection rate in the Netherlands increased 800% in a week shortly after they relaxed their restrictions and they were still stronger than ours - people visiting nightclubs/music festivals and the like needed to show negative tests to get in, something which hasn't been required here. The Dutch have now sensibly reversed their relaxation of restrictions. Do Johnson and Javid have the same sense if things go pear-shaped over here as quickly? I tend to doubt they do.

I think the most likely straw which will break the camel's back is the hospitalisation rate. Remember, the justification for the earlier lockdowns was to protect the NHS. We already know that the NHS is under massive pressure - record A&E attendances in recent months in many areas even with Covid rates and hospitalisation so much lower than they now are and with lots of other viruses we normally see more commonly in the winter months running rife. Just over 600 admissions per day average over the past 7 days but if it continues to increase at roughly 40% per week, we'll be around 5,000 admissions per day by the end of August when some think that this wave will be peaking. Bear in mind also that hospitalisations increase in the weeks immediately following the peak.

I personally think there is a high chance that we'll be in a lockdown of sorts before the summer is out, but I suppose that all really depends on how far down people are willing to see the NHS crumble. When you're out on your doorstep clapping again in a month or two, please do consider what the staff are having to deal with a bit more thoughtfully this time. In the interim, I'll keep wearing my multi-layer cloth masks in indoor settings. I don't spend much time in the shops and this will hopefully reduce the risk of me indavertently infecting anyone else.

I've no problem with wearing a mask indoors and will continue to do so, if it makes others feel safer when they are shopping, on public transport etc. then it's a very small inconvenience for me to continue to wear a mask indoors.

I see that other credible expert, Vallance managed to get a pretty basic statistic ‘wrong’ and has now backtracked…

How long they gonna keep up this charade?

Quoted from aldi_01

I see that other credible expert, Vallance managed to get a pretty basic statistic ‘wrong’ and has now backtracked…

How long they gonna keep up this charade?

They make it up as they go along regardless of the pain and suffering they cause, and yet the masses unbelievably just follow without question.
A Tory backbencher recently described this phenomenon as the ‘Stockholm syndrome’ a perfect description it would seem.

I’ve just been informed my daughter has tested positive for coronavirus and is poorly with it, what is the situation with isolation (with Sophie living with me) is it still for 10 days or has that been reduced if I can prove negative myself, I’ve had my jabs and I feel fine with no symptoms, I’m not sure what the situation is so would be grateful of any advice.

Thanks in advance

Chris

Quoted from cmackenzie4

I’ve just been informed my daughter has tested positive for coronavirus and is poorly with it, what is the situation with isolation (with Sophie living with me) is it still for 10 days or has that been reduced if I can prove negative myself, I’ve had my jabs and I feel fine with no symptoms, I’m not sure what the situation is so would be grateful of any advice.

Thanks in advance

Chris

If you live in the same household as someone with COVID-19
Stay at home and self-isolate. Do not go to work, school, or public areas and do not use public transport or taxis. This applies even if you have received one or both doses of COVID-19 vaccine.

Your isolation period includes the day the first person in your household’s symptoms started (or the day their test was taken if they did not have symptoms) and the next 10 full days. This means that if, for example, your 10 day isolation period starts on the 15th of the month, your isolation period ends at 23:59 hrs on the 25th and you can return to your normal routine.

If you are identified as a contact and asked to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace, including by the NHS COVID-19 app you may be entitled to a payment of £500 from your local authority under the Test and Trace Support Payment scheme. If you are the parent or guardian of a child who has been told to self-isolate you may also be entitled to this payment.


Failure to comply with self-isolation may result in a fine, starting from £1,000. Parents or guardians are legally responsible for ensuring that anyone under 18 self-isolates if they test positive for COVID-19 and are contacted by NHS Test and Trace and told to self-isolate.



https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Colleague contacted me earlier to ask why someone from the council knocked on her door to ask if she was isolating…she doesn’t have the app, nor have we provided any information…

A million school kids out of school last week and not even close to 50k cases by all accounts. Literally out of control. Stop the app, open up and crack on…

Quoted from aldi_01

Stop the app, open up and crack on…

...and watch the NHS collapse.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

I’ve just been informed my daughter has tested positive for coronavirus and is poorly with it, what is the situation with isolation (with Sophie living with me) is it still for 10 days or has that been reduced if I can prove negative myself, I’ve had my jabs and I feel fine with no symptoms, I’m not sure what the situation is so would be grateful of any advice.

Thanks in advance

Chris

Sorry to hear the news. Stadium has linked the isolation information and it's a right pain in the neck, but has to be done. Helps if the weather is good and you have a garden to spend time in.

I'd suggest, if possible, your daughter keeps well away from the rest of the household. If it is possible for her to isolate in a single room (other than visiting the bathroom), then it is worth trying that. Good ventilation helps so keep the windows open as much as possible. Wear masks if you're taking her food or she needs to be looked after. Try to use different bathrooms/toilets (if possible). The virus is airborne so if you can avoid going in the same room as your daughter for some time after she's been there and make sure the windows are open so the air in the room can turnover more quickly.

Obviously, a lot depends on your living situation and how much room you've got available. Hope all are well in a week or two.

Quoted from Maringer

...and watch the NHS collapse.

They could redirect some of the billions wasted on that godforsaken app…or perhaps the tories are happy with its collapse…

The billions wasn't wasted on the app, you pillock. Billions was wasted on an incompetent test and trace system, of which the app is a miniscule part. The app probably cost tens of millions to design, rollout and keep operational. The tracing is not much use thanks to the outsourcing and the inept design, but most of the expense is on the testing setup which is extremely expensive (including billions spent on the lateral flow tests which aren't very good in comparison to others available), and especially expensive because we're having so many infections and therefore so many tests. We're going to be beyond our testing capacity in a week or so, despite the vast amount invested in it. All because of the ineptitude of the government in handling the pandemic.

Recent data studies showing efficacy of these vaccines against the Delta variant.

Symptomatic infection prevention rates, hospitalization prevention rates.

According to Johnson & Johnson, immunity gets stronger and stronger even upto 8-months after your jab.

References can by found in the links below the YouTube video.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

References can by found in the links below the YouTube video:

5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant (Yale Medicine) | https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant (Imperial College) | https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/89629/10/react1_r12_preprint_final.pdf

SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness (The Lancet) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

Vaccines highly effective against B.1.617.2 variant after 2 doses (GOV.UK) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against hospital admission with the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant (Public Health England) | https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view/479607266

Moderna Provides a Clinical Update on the Neutralizing Activity of its COVID-19 Vaccine on Emerging Variants Including the Delta Variant First Identified in India (Moderna) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-provides-clinical-update-neutralizing-activity-its-covid

How much protection COVID-19 vaccines give you against the Delta variant, according to the best available data (Business Insider) | https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-covid-vaccine-effectiveness-protection-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-2021-7?r=US&IR=T

The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions (NIH) | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7685332/

Covid vaccine: How many people in the UK have been vaccinated so far? (BBC News) | https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

Quoted from Maringer

The billions wasn't wasted on the app, you pillock. Billions was wasted on an incompetent test and trace system, of which the app is a miniscule part. The app probably cost tens of millions to design, rollout and keep operational. The tracing is not much use thanks to the outsourcing and the inept design, but most of the expense is on the testing setup which is extremely expensive (including billions spent on the lateral flow tests which aren't very good in comparison to others available), and especially expensive because we're having so many infections and therefore so many tests. We're going to be beyond our testing capacity in a week or so, despite the vast amount invested in it. All because of the ineptitude of the government in handling the pandemic.

Which was my point well missed…I mean literally zero justification for the waste of 37bn…

Most of the money will have been spent on testing of some sort. The fact that the lateral flow tests aren't great doesn't mean that lots of cases haven't been found and onward transmission stopped (at that time, at least). Certainly not all of the 37 billion quid has been wasted.

To be honest, considering the impact of the pandemic, 37 billion is a relative drop in the ocean, but it would have been nice if we'd really squashed infections last summer instead of getting the rates right down and then happily reimporting them from the continent in the summer. Problem is, the government has never taken it seriously enough and have always been looking for an easy way out. There aren't any easy ways out which is why the economic impact has been so bad and we've still had so many deaths. Bear in mind that countries such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore kept the virus in check last year without requiring lockdowns at all. The poor attitude of our government has seen catastrophic numbers of infections and deaths and months in lockdown. It screwed us over last spring and we didn't learn our lessons which led to the second wave. With this third wave, they've just given up caring.

Quoted from Maringer

Most of the money will have been spent on testing of some sort. The fact that the lateral flow tests aren't great doesn't mean that lots of cases haven't been found and onward transmission stopped (at that time, at least). Certainly not all of the 37 billion quid has been wasted.

To be honest, considering the impact of the pandemic, 37 billion is a relative drop in the ocean, but it would have been nice if we'd really squashed infections last summer instead of getting the rates right down and then happily reimporting them from the continent in the summer. Problem is, the government has never taken it seriously enough and have always been looking for an easy way out. There aren't any easy ways out which is why the economic impact has been so bad and we've still had so many deaths. Bear in mind that countries such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore kept the virus in check last year without requiring lockdowns at all. The poor attitude of our government has seen catastrophic numbers of infections and deaths and months in lockdown. It screwed us over last spring and we didn't learn our lessons which led to the second wave. With this third wave, they've just given up caring.

And so have vast swathes of the country. Anything like another lockdown and a large chunk of my pupils will literally give up. Rising numbers of self harm and suicide/attempted suicide anyway, add another lockdown and watch that grow. Personally that worries me more than any virus. Our government have been incompetent since well before this farce, they were never going to improve.

Lockdown won’t be worthwhile, as has been proven before, you lock down, numbers go down, you open up, they go up. Locking down every time there is a spike won’t get a handle on it.

They won’t but they’d be better off just putting in contingency plans for staying normal and supporting people that way…instead I’m sure we’ll see more horror stories, additional pointless press conferences with government puppets and incompetent politicians, more cash landing in the pockets of chums and corporate shareholders, more blaming of anyone they can think of but themselves and the continued division of society…

From the early stages of the pandemic, I've thought it would be the ideal situation to bring in a Universal Basic Income of some sort. It wouldn't need to be much - just a peppercorn amount of a couple of quid a week to allow a system to be implemented and I doubt many people would turn down free money from the government.

Then, in the event of a serious Covid outbreak in the future, or the emergence of a scarier variant (which is quite feasible - the Spanish flu killed a lot of young people for one reason or another), a lockdown and other restrictions could be implemented quickly and those forced to isolate could immediately be allocated funding straight from the government to ensure they isolate.

Unfortunately, the current government obviously isn't going to implement such a scheme. Wouldn't want to see even a tiny amount of money being given away for free to the citizenry when untold billions can be pumped into big business instead...

Thanks for that stadium, I had seen that but it seems some companies have different policies, I’ve been told to isolate by my employer for 10 days, my son has been told he can go back when his test has come back negative (which it has) and then takes daily flow tests which is different to my employer in that it’s isolate for the full 10 days even though I’ve tested negative. I’m lucky that I still get paid by my employer (network rail)

Your son’s employer is breaking the law and your son is liable for a £10k fine if he lives at the same address

proper funny reading some of the anti-vax stuff in this thread, the mental hoops some have to jump through is impressive

Quoted from cmackenzie4

Thanks for that stadium, I had seen that but it seems some companies have different policies, I’ve been told to isolate by my employer for 10 days, my son has been told he can go back when his test has come back negative (which it has) and then takes daily flow tests which is different to my employer in that it’s isolate for the full 10 days even though I’ve tested negative. I’m lucky that I still get paid by my employer (network rail)

The government advice overrules any employer policy unless they have special dispensation.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/fully-vaccinated-critical-workers-to-be-able-to-leave-self-isolation-in-exceptional-circumstances

Quoted from SheepGTFC

proper funny reading some of the anti-vax stuff in this thread, the mental hoops some have to jump through is impressive

Please enlighten us Sheeple ??

Yes my lad is now aware LH and Stadium he’s informed his employer and now waiting a response from them,

When I had to ring several parents the other week to say their kids needed to isolate etc (even though many hadn’t been near the person with a postive reading) many just laughed and said ‘are you gonna pay my bills’

Hard to argue; one family have lost their jobs this year due to isolation and looking after thei kids etc. Can see why people would ignore guidance…no job, no money, no house…or small risk of catching something which statistically won’t kill me and keep job…no brainier for many…

There’s also the issue the other way and folk using it to get time off, especially those in salaried jobs rather than hourly rate…

Quoted from cmackenzie4

Yes my lad is now aware LH and Stadium he’s informed his employer and now waiting a response from them,

That’s really out of order of them. Is it a large business?

Out of interest, those in industry etc, what have guidance documents been like? Have you had the same farcical stuff that education has? We contacted the PHT and PHE three times in one day and were given varying responses…similarly, the issue with schools arose when it was offered only as guidance…meaning schools could choose to do whatever they wanted.

Lost count of the amount of parents telling me what other schools were doing and what we weren’t etc…

Quoted from Maringer

Any reasonable mask works to some degree, including multi-layer cloth masks and even single-layer masks. Obviously, FFP2/FFP3 is much better than a single-layer mask, but it's still better than nothing in terms of transmitting to other people, which is what masks are most useful for. Dr Axon isn't an expert in the field in which he was quoted and the Sage expert in that field was outraged by the Telegraph article and said it should be corrected. I'm guessing it wasn't.

Anyway, it will be interesting (and disturbing) to see the trajectory from a week or so onwards. Even with a mask mandate before today, infections are up 41.2% over the past 7 days. Deaths are up 48% over the past 7 days, hospitalisations up 39.5%. Providing those rates continue, we'll be double the current rate of infections by the end of the month. The question then, is how many of the infections will be finding their way out of the younger population who aren't generally badly affected and may have very mild symptoms and then on into the more vulnerable populations, i.e. the elderly, immunosuppressed people (including hundreds of thousands of people being treated for cancers), millions of people living with diabetes and unlucky people who seem to be badly impacted due to genetic quirks. The death rate is likely to increase a huge amount yet, unfortunately, and it's amazing that people have become so blase about it all. One slight hope is that a lot of the infections we're seeing now are due to the Euros effect i.e. gatherings related to the football which have now ceased. If they provided a higher bump than there might have been, then perhaps the rate of increase will drop (still not a fall), but it will be difficult to tell until we've seen how much the dropping of restrictions today will increase the rates. Infection rate in the Netherlands increased 800% in a week shortly after they relaxed their restrictions and they were still stronger than ours - people visiting nightclubs/music festivals and the like needed to show negative tests to get in, something which hasn't been required here. The Dutch have now sensibly reversed their relaxation of restrictions. Do Johnson and Javid have the same sense if things go pear-shaped over here as quickly? I tend to doubt they do.

I think the most likely straw which will break the camel's back is the hospitalisation rate. Remember, the justification for the earlier lockdowns was to protect the NHS. We already know that the NHS is under massive pressure - record A&E attendances in recent months in many areas even with Covid rates and hospitalisation so much lower than they now are and with lots of other viruses we normally see more commonly in the winter months running rife. Just over 600 admissions per day average over the past 7 days but if it continues to increase at roughly 40% per week, we'll be around 5,000 admissions per day by the end of August when some think that this wave will be peaking. Bear in mind also that hospitalisations increase in the weeks immediately following the peak.

I personally think there is a high chance that we'll be in a lockdown of sorts before the summer is out, but I suppose that all really depends on how far down people are willing to see the NHS crumble. When you're out on your doorstep clapping again in a month or two, please do consider what the staff are having to deal with a bit more thoughtfully this time. In the interim, I'll keep wearing my multi-layer cloth masks in indoor settings. I don't spend much time in the shops and this will hopefully reduce the risk of me indavertently infecting anyone else.

What are your projections on the current data?


Today’s case figure of 29,622 is 19% down on last Friday (36,389). The seven-day average is 28,271, down from 44,249 a week ago (-36.1%).

The peak daily average was 47,696 on 21/7.

England PCR positivity drops again to 9.2% down from 9.5% yesterday and a peak of 11.8% on 19/7.

Quoted from Stadium

What are your projections on the current data?


Today’s case figure of 29,622 is 19% down on last Friday (36,389). The seven-day average is 28,271, down from 44,249 a week ago (-36.1%).

The peak daily average was 47,696 on 21/7.

England PCR positivity drops again to 9.2% down from 9.5% yesterday and a peak of 11.8% on 19/7.

I've just got back from holiday and haven't paid much attention to what has gone on over the past week, other than being pleasantly surprised at the reductions in number of confirmed cases in comparison to what was expected.

Almost certainly down to quite a few factors which mean that the picture probably isn't as rosy as is being painted by many. Today's ONS infection data (for the week up to 24th July) shows that cases were still rising a week ago, so there is certainly something going on - and it ain't herd immunity yet. Some of the factors to be considered:

1. Lots of kids were absent for the final couple of weeks of term which would certainly have reduced the number of cases.
2. The 'pingdemic' in recent weeks (a risible name given to the effects of the pandemic by the media), will certainly have had an effect. Contacts of those with confirmed infections are more likely to be members of the groups at most risk of infection at present. If the numbers are to be believed, the majority of the people 'pinged' have isolated which would reduce further spread, especially for those with mild or even asymptomatic infections. This would have cut the number of onward infections.
3. It's holiday time. People wanting to go on their summer holidays may have been more cautious over the past couple of weeks and therefore avoided infection. Some may also have avoided getting a test if mildly symptomatic, because they didn't want to risk missing a booked holiday.
4. Positivity has fallen a little, but the number of tests has fallen a great deal, something like 30-odd % fewer PCR tests over the past week or two. Are fewer people getting tested because they aren't showing symptoms or is there some other reason the number of tests taken have fallen so much? Kids have stopped using the lateral flow tests since the end of school so cases discovered via that route will have dropped as well.
5. Perhaps the surge in cases related to the Euro footy was greater than expected. It might be that the bulk of the surge earlier in the month wasn't just general cases plus the footy, but more footy-related. Cases in Scotland dropped a great deal a couple of weeks earlier which could certainly be explained a good amount by the fact that their schools were out a month ago and their team got knocked out of the tournament so much earlier.
6. Good weather for some weeks = more time socialising outdoors and therefore less risk of infection.
7. Perhaps the single-doses received by younger adults over the past month or so are having a good effect in reduction of cases? Would be good news if this was having an impact. Vaccination rates are falling, but it would be useful if they could be kept up, especially if it is having a positive impact at this early stage.
8. The impact of the reopening on 19th July may not have had much of an effect as yet. I've seen reports that the majority of adults are still masking in shops and the like (and this certainly seems to be true from what I saw on holiday), so it may take more time for increases of infections caused by reopening to work their way through.

Probably quite a few other factors as well. If cases have in fact begun to fall, then we'll know in a week or so from a linked drop in hospitalisations. Hospitalisations are still rising at present so we'll have to see if we get a drop or not.

As so much is unclear, I'm guessing we'll see numerous rises and falls in infections over the summer. Depends on how much of the spread is caused by people relaxing their behaviour and how much is from issues such as the holidays/weather etc.

Still guessing but hopefully, the worst of scenarios won't come to pass. Deaths up 25% over the past 7 days, hospitalisations up 19%, but that is a drop in the numbers from the middle of the month, which is encouraging. Hope it isn't a false signal in the longer term.

Interesting point from this guy, who really dives down into the data:



Growth is flat in most age groups, but just about falling in under-15s and certainly rising in ages 15 to 40. This could potentially be a clear impact of what we'll see from the closure of schools plus opening up of Step 4 last week.

Over the next 6 weeks, if Covid stopped being the constant obsession in the media by September, possibly the end of September it would barely be a thing anymore. It’ll still be there, much like anything like this…something which seems to be forgotten.

Having already missed countless hours of education they’re now expecting me and my colleagues to waste even more time mass testing again in September…already fielding emails from parents and carers worried about how much more school the kids could lose.

The virus is no longer out of control, the baffling rules being implemented and ignored or flouted by the folk at the top or the division of society; those who are worried and focus heavily on it and those who’ve just tried to move on. Now the vaccine passport debacle…

Nothing can be genuinely trusted, whoever or wherever the data is from, if one thing I’ve learned from the last couple of years of writing a PhD, if you’re gathering data from various sources, some who have altered the way it is collected or presented then it has to be used with caution…

Everything is open, people are living a normal life as they should. Remove the thinly veiled black mailing of folk to have a vaccine, allow those who want to wear masks etc carry on but just crack on and let’s go back to how we were before…

Quoted from Maringer

I've just got back from holiday and haven't paid much attention to what has gone on over the past week, other than being pleasantly surprised at the reductions in number of confirmed cases in comparison to what was expected.

Almost certainly down to quite a few factors which mean that the picture probably isn't as rosy as is being painted by many. Today's ONS infection data (for the week up to 24th July) shows that cases were still rising a week ago, so there is certainly something going on - and it ain't herd immunity yet. Some of the factors to be considered:

1. Lots of kids were absent for the final couple of weeks of term which would certainly have reduced the number of cases.
2. The 'pingdemic' in recent weeks (a risible name given to the effects of the pandemic by the media), will certainly have had an effect. Contacts of those with confirmed infections are more likely to be members of the groups at most risk of infection at present. If the numbers are to be believed, the majority of the people 'pinged' have isolated which would reduce further spread, especially for those with mild or even asymptomatic infections. This would have cut the number of onward infections.
3. It's holiday time. People wanting to go on their summer holidays may have been more cautious over the past couple of weeks and therefore avoided infection. Some may also have avoided getting a test if mildly symptomatic, because they didn't want to risk missing a booked holiday.
4. Positivity has fallen a little, but the number of tests has fallen a great deal, something like 30-odd % fewer PCR tests over the past week or two. Are fewer people getting tested because they aren't showing symptoms or is there some other reason the number of tests taken have fallen so much? Kids have stopped using the lateral flow tests since the end of school so cases discovered via that route will have dropped as well.
5. Perhaps the surge in cases related to the Euro footy was greater than expected. It might be that the bulk of the surge earlier in the month wasn't just general cases plus the footy, but more footy-related. Cases in Scotland dropped a great deal a couple of weeks earlier which could certainly be explained a good amount by the fact that their schools were out a month ago and their team got knocked out of the tournament so much earlier.
6. Good weather for some weeks = more time socialising outdoors and therefore less risk of infection.
7. Perhaps the single-doses received by younger adults over the past month or so are having a good effect in reduction of cases? Would be good news if this was having an impact. Vaccination rates are falling, but it would be useful if they could be kept up, especially if it is having a positive impact at this early stage.
8. The impact of the reopening on 19th July may not have had much of an effect as yet. I've seen reports that the majority of adults are still masking in shops and the like (and this certainly seems to be true from what I saw on holiday), so it may take more time for increases of infections caused by reopening to work their way through.

Probably quite a few other factors as well. If cases have in fact begun to fall, then we'll know in a week or so from a linked drop in hospitalisations. Hospitalisations are still rising at present so we'll have to see if we get a drop or not.

As so much is unclear, I'm guessing we'll see numerous rises and falls in infections over the summer. Depends on how much of the spread is caused by people relaxing their behaviour and how much is from issues such as the holidays/weather etc.

Still guessing but hopefully, the worst of scenarios won't come to pass. Deaths up 25% over the past 7 days, hospitalisations up 19%, but that is a drop in the numbers from the middle of the month, which is encouraging. Hope it isn't a false signal in the longer term.

Interesting point from this guy, who really dives down into the data:

Tweet 1420823811415490567 will appear here...

Growth is flat in most age groups, but just about falling in under-15s and certainly rising in ages 15 to 40. This could potentially be a clear impact of what we'll see from the closure of schools plus opening up of Step 4 last week.

Unbelievable!!

This doom merchant is insufferable, let’s have a look back a month at his (government based) projections -

‘Just over 600 admissions per day average over the past 7 days but if it continues to increase at roughly 40% per week, we'll be around 5,000 admissions per day by the end of August when some think that this wave will be peaking. Bear in mind also that hospitalisations increase in the weeks immediately following the peak’.

We’re averaging just over 900 -https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

‘We could be into the daily numbers of hundreds of thousands of infections before the end of July is out’

We are averaging around  27,000 with a falling trend he mentions having 10,000 plus hospitalisation yet we are roughly half this figure and it has come out that at least a third hospitalised have not even been admitted with Covid!

Now me and old Maringer have our differences and I would normally agree to disagree with his government sourced predictions, but it’s his self righteous attitude without alternative thinking or acceptance that lets him down. I know he’s not an idiot and it can be clearly seen by the way he communicate’s on here that he’s intellectual. I do struggle to understand though why he shows so much faith in these SAGE projections/models that have been consistently incorrect.

Quoted from Stadium

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.

Yet daily cases have dropped dramatically since peaking the next day, July 15, at around 60,000 – less than half the number the group was predicting. Infection numbers fell again on Friday to 29,622 after a slight rise earlier in the week, less than a quarter of the forecast. The seven-day average is now down 36 per cent.

There is also no signal yet that July 19 has had a major impact on case numbers. Many businesses and transport networks are continuing to ask customers to wear masks and socially distance.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former Tory leader, told The Telegraph that there were "some scientists" who did not want restrictions to be lifted until there was "zero Covid".

He said: "The Government is constantly being assailed by scientists whose forecasts seem to be around fulfilling a purpose, keeping us in lockdown. We are in a state of unreality, it's as though we don't need an economy, we don't need to meet each other, we don't need to do anything that makes life worthwhile. But we do."

Sir Iain warned that without all of these things, the public were living "a demi life", adding: "We have been driven into a vortex led by these incredible forecasts that never seem to be right."

The SPI-M document, from two days after Boris Johnson confirmed the lifting of restrictions would go ahead, shows that modellers advised that a high volume of cases could overwhelm testing services, and that measures may need to be implemented to reverse growth.
"Delaying introduction of measures increases the risk that they will have to be more stringent if applied," they warned. "Any epidemic trajectory that could lead to unsustainable pressure on the NHS or other adverse outcomes would need to be identified and a contingency enacted within days.

"If incidence reaches very high levels, such as greater than one million infections per week, there could be implications for workforces and critical infrastructure."

The document also warns that vaccines could become less effective as the virus increases in the community and said the peak could be drawn out "over many weeks" before population level immunity was achieved.

However, even surveillance studies by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) appear to show infection rates are slowing.

The weekly ONS infection survey released on Friday reported that cases rose just 15 per cent between the weeks ending July 17 and July 24, compared to rises of 28 per cent, 73 per cent and 57 per cent in the past three bulletins.

The team said that although the figures did not reflect the rapid drop seen in the Government's daily reported data, four in 10 of the cases they picked up were asymptomatic, so were less likely to show up in dashboard numbers.

Experts said the ONS figures were not representative of the current situation because surveillance testing still picks up people who had been diagnosed weeks earlier.

This is the first week that the ONS has picked up the decline in Scotland, even though the country peaked on June 30.

Paul Hunter, professor medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: "The important point to point out is that the ONS survey largely covers a period prior to the decline in cases, especially as this is a prevalence survey and people can be positive for some time after acquiring their infection.

"We will have to wait till next week before we can see any indication of the recent decline in cases. Generally changes in ONS data lag about two weeks behind daily cases data."

Data from the King's College Zoe app, which is usually a week ahead of the government figures, also suggests cases have stopped rising. The overall number of estimated daily new symptomatic cases is 60,480 and has remained stable over the past six days, suggesting that new cases of Covid have stopped rising in the UK, the team said.

Tim Spector, lead scientist on the app and professor of genetic epidemiology at King's, said: "Cases have stopped rising for the last week and are holding steady around the 60,000 mark."

“Scientists puzzled, bewildered” read the now government funded media headlines but in other words they got it wrong with over-simplistic modelling. Those of us calling out the failed modelling for months have been called science deniers or even anti- vaxxers and then for the even more extreme...conspiracy theorists😂

My sister in law had her second jab this morning at a drop in centre. There was a crowd of people outside shouting that they all have blood on their hands and the staff giving the vaccines are 'Worse than Hitler.' Absolute whoppers. What a way to spend your Saturday.

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

My sister in law had her second jab this morning at a drop in centre. There was a crowd of people outside shouting that they all have blood on their hands and the staff giving the vaccines are 'Worse than Hitler.' Absolute whoppers. What a way to spend your Saturday.

When you allow numbnuts like the below to peddle nonsense any reasonable debate about vaccines go out of the window.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/people/953607/who-is-kate-shemirani-anti-vaxxer-speech-investigated-over-nuremberg-cry

Quoted from Stadium

When you allow numbnuts like the below to peddle nonsense any reasonable debate about vaccines go out of the window.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/people/953607/who-is-kate-shemirani-anti-vaxxer-speech-investigated-over-nuremberg-cry

'kin hell, what a nutjob. Even the Daily Mail calling her claims preposterous.

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

My sister in law had her second jab this morning at a drop in centre. There was a crowd of people outside shouting that they all have blood on their hands and the staff giving the vaccines are 'Worse than Hitler.' Absolute whoppers. What a way to spend your Saturday.

Where was this? How big was the ‘crowd’ I’m surprised the press are not all over this. Sounds like a bunch of anti tax nutters.
Just to add some balance though on these vaccines I remember a time some months after the Covid outbreak, when I’d say that I still don’t know anyone who has had the virus, but now I know many. It’s getting similar with the vaccine now,  a healthy colleague in his 40s collapsed after having his 2nd jab a few weeks ago, rushed to hospital with his pulse around 40 BPM. Whilst at hospital he contracted Covid and the latest we have been told is that he now has a heart condition and won’t be coming back to work anytime soon.

Where my wife works it’s been reported a 22 year old suffered a reaction 2 hours after the jab he has now been told he now has a heart condition that will be life long.

My wife had her 1st Pfizer jab last week she had a racing heart beat for  2 days after and had to go see the doctor, but fortunately this has now gone away.

These are just some of the cases that I know of but they don’t get talked about or make headline news whilst the government is funding the once free press to push its propaganda campaign.

Quoted from Humbercod

Where was this? How big was the ‘crowd’ I’m surprised the press are not all over this. Sounds like a bunch of anti tax nutters.
Just to add some balance though on these vaccines I remember a time some months after the Covid outbreak, when I’d say that I still don’t know anyone who has had the virus, but now I know many. It’s getting similar with the vaccine now,  a healthy colleague in his 40s collapsed after having his 2nd jab a few weeks ago, rushed to hospital with his pulse around 40 BPM. Whilst at hospital he contracted Covid and the latest we have been told is that he now has a heart condition and won’t be coming back to work anytime soon.

Where my wife works it’s been reported a 22 year old suffered a reaction 2 hours after the jab he has now been told he now has a heart condition that will be life long.

My wife had her 1st Pfizer jab last week she had a racing heart beat for  2 days after and had to go see the doctor, but fortunately this has now gone away.

These are just some of the cases that I know of but they don’t get talked about or make headline news whilst the government is funding the once free press to push its propaganda campaign.

It was in Warrington today and of course would've been a bunch of anti vax nutbars to be calling vaccine staff worse than hitler and that they all have blood on their hands. Absolute crazytalk.

Interestingly my neighbour got covid just before Christmas pretty bad and was ill for a while. In his 20's, reasonably healthy and with no previous issues. A month later he was also whisked off to hospital in the night with a racing heart beat. Maybe another possible covid related symptom?

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

It was in Warrington today and of course would've been a bunch of anti vax nutbars to be calling vaccine staff worse than hitler and that they all have blood on their hands. Absolute crazytalk.

Interestingly my neighbour got covid just before Christmas pretty bad and was ill for a while. In his 20's, reasonably healthy and with no previous issues. A month later he was also whisked off to hospital in the night with a racing heart beat. Maybe another possible covid related symptom?

Heart rhythm disturbances
Covid-19 may cause your heart rate to become fast or irregular. Your pulse rate may increase in response to fever or inflammation as your heart works harder to pump more blood around your body to fight the infection.

Some people are reporting palpitations, or that their heart is beating faster, even after their initial coronavirus infection has resolved. For some people this may be a sign of long Covid. This is an area that researchers are continuing to look into, but it’s thought that this could be due to the virus and the immune response to the virus affecting the autonomic nervous system (rather than the heart muscle itself). This is the part of the nervous system that works automatically to regulate essential body processes, like blood pressure, heart rate and breathing rate.


Also confirmed that heart inflammation is an adverse reaction to the vaccine:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57781637

It’s been widely reported in all the USA media over the weekend about a leaked CDC report that now says vaccinated people spread the Delta variant at the same rate as the unvaccinated, here’s a section from the New York Times - July 30, 2021-

[/b]In yet another unexpected and unwelcome twist in the pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Friday a report strongly suggesting that fully immunized people with so-called breakthrough infections of the Delta variant can spread the virus to others just as readily as unvaccinated people.

The vaccines remain powerfully effective against severe illness and death, and the agency said infections in vaccinated people were comparatively rare. But the revelation follows a series of other recent findings about the Delta variant that have upended scientists’ understanding of the coronavirus.[b]

I wonder what these ‘other recent findings’ are?

Also came across this Pfizer tweet over the weekend that raises more question over their vaccine.

So all those pinning their hopes on a vaccine seemingly eradicating this flu virus are gonna be disappointed…

I’m sure someone will come on here and say the vaccine was never going to eradicate it which of course is true but sadly, of many of the people I’ve met and been bored to tears with talking about Covid, they’re under the impression it was gonna do just that.

Basically, folk are being blackmailed in to having a vaccine that either doesn’t really work or were being subjected to variants to suit an entirely different agenda…or both…

The Vaccines have done an amazing job no question in keeping the elderly and vulnerable from developing the more severe conditions and death. But I stand by that this group are the only people that needed the jabs. We would of been better served by the Government giving us Apps on our phones so we could self evaluate our need for these jabs based on age, Heath Cormobidities etc.
I say this by researching and listening to the many experts out there that are not necessarily on the government payrolls.

For example this latest news now emerging about the vaccinated now spreading Covid was already out there, We have experts including literally the credited inventor of mRNA (depending where you look) warning us for some time that having the vaccine would not stop the spread, but they were censored and the story buried.

There is evidence already mounting that vaccine coverage is not going to stop the virus and only cause more variants as the virus learns to outfox. Take Malta for example they have the highest uptake in vaccines anywhere in the world yet they have been having a spike in cases. (What are these vaccine passports for again?)

We were told vaccines were our way out of the pandemic to get back to normality but it’s not looking likely with Autumn/winter on the way. Reports from Country’s like Israel with longer term use and big uptakes are already showing a decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine with booster shots ready to go!
Back to the Pfizer tweet and they’re now literally admitting that they’re vaccine isn’t good enough and you need to take a drug as well.... sounds like a more expensive version of ivermectin🤔

We should be following the science and not the authoritarianism! good look to the French they’re not taking it, I wish them well.

Covid still isn't the flu. Never has been, never will be. The vaccines still work better than could have been anticipated at this time last year when scientists around the world were rushing to try and get something which would prove effective.

The US government scheme named "Operation Warp Speed" only had aims that the vaccines should be 50% effective - at preventing or decreasing the severity of infections:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/06/30/fda-coronavirus-vaccine-would-have-least-50-effective/5349964002/

The vaccines which have been in use since December knock this aim out of the park (to use an Americanism). They are so much more effective than we could have hoped, that it's pretty ridiculous that some think they aren't any use!

It is estimated that 22 million infections and 60,000 lives have been saved by them already in England alone:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-58014546

If it wasn't for the vaccines, we'd have been in lockdown for the past few months as infections caused by the spread of Delta rocketed and we'd be looking at hundreds of thousands of deaths this year. Unfortunately, this is likely to be seen in many of the poorer undervaccinated countries.

Anyway, that aside, the news continues to be remarkably better than expected by pretty much anybody. Number of hospitalisations is falling, which is mirroring the drop in confirmed cases last week. Not perhaps as much as might be expected due to the confirmed case drops so there were certainly lots going untested/unreported, but enough that there doesn't appear to be anything too dodgy in the numbers (not saying they were fiddled, just that there could be a number of reasons for them being under-reported). Deaths are still rising but hopefully these will peak in a week or two though it is likely to be a slow decline from there. The next set of ONS survey data will be interesting to see as regards estimated number of cases. The amount of strain on the NHS from the tens or perhaps even hundreds of thousands likely to develop Long Covid symptoms over the next few months will be a serious issue, even without the case numbers originally expected.

It seems probable that the drop in cases has come in great part due to the numbers of kids isolating towards the end of the school year (and years 11 and 13 weren't in school for the final month or two of term, of course), plus the numbers of people isolating due to being 'pinged'. Not sure that tweaking the app settings so much as revealed today is a great idea but Delta does have much faster onset than previous variants so there won't perhaps be too many people out and about who should be isolating. I'd imagine analysis in the future will be able to calculate just exactly what factors caused this unexpected drop in cases. I'm pleased that my guess we'd be back in lockdown by the end of the summer is likely to be proven incorrect. It turns out people have, in general, continued to behave as carefully as you'd hope in the middle of a pandemic.

I'd imagine we'll see cases beginning to bump up towards the end of the month even if they fall for the next week or two as people holiday and spread the virus (let's hope no new even nastier variants emerge from all the cases or are imported). All bets are off when schools reopen in September, however, as that will be large gatherings of unprotected people will begin to meet indoors and the weather will start to deteriorate as well. It would be nice if the government could take improved ventilation seriously as most countries are doing!

If you’re not at least a little sceptical of the vaccine then you really haven’t been paying attention or are totally burying your head in the sand.

Tell me why I should be sceptical. The trials have been carried out in the open and the data from them is readily available. And which vaccine in particular? We're using 3 in the UK - one with an Adenovirus vector and two using the new mRNA technology - with others to follow in the near future (recombinant protein, inactivated whole virus plus more).

What is to be sceptical about when we know the vaccines are so safe and efficacious, especially in comparison to the risks of the virus itself? This is true even taking into account the rare issues with the current vaccines with bloodclots and heart issues which are well-known.

Quoted from Maringer

Tell me why I should be sceptical. The trials have been carried out in the open and the data from them is readily available. And which vaccine in particular? We're using 3 in the UK - one with an Adenovirus vector and two using the new mRNA technology - with others to follow in the near future (recombinant protein, inactivated whole virus plus more).

What is to be sceptical about when we know the vaccines are so safe and efficacious, especially in comparison to the risks of the virus itself? This is true even taking into account the rare issues with the current vaccines with bloodclots and heart issues which are well-known.

Do you genuinely believe that the ‘research’ presented to use to prove the efficacy of the vaccine is legit? Not even a little bit of truth bending?

Do you agree that the representation of the vaccine as a cure to end Covid rather than allegedly minimise the risk is ok?

I’m not picking fault, you’re as entitled to your views and opinions as the next person, it’s good for discussion but having spent a considerable amount of time carrying out doctoral research for various reasons, one being my own PhD, sometimes you still have to be sceptical.

The rhetoric and propaganda surrounding the vaccine is not the fault of the scientists but it’s understandable that some folk are cautious or are exercising their right to choice. A few folk not wanting it isn’t going to be as catastrophic as the hyperbole would make us believe…

Quoted from Maringer

Tell me why I should be sceptical. The trials have been carried out in the open and the data from them is readily available. And which vaccine in particular? We're using 3 in the UK - one with an Adenovirus vector and two using the new mRNA technology - with others to follow in the near future (recombinant protein, inactivated whole virus plus more).

What is to be sceptical about when we know the vaccines are so safe and efficacious, especially in comparison to the risks of the virus itself? This is true even taking into account the rare issues with the current vaccines with bloodclots and heart issues which are well-known.

What are your thoughts on 16 & 17 year old's receiving vaccinations regardless of parental consent?
Waiting to gather more data on the risks before sanctioning the 2nd dose? Alarm bells should be ringing with that statement.

Quoted from aldi_01

Do you genuinely believe that the ‘research’ presented to use to prove the efficacy of the vaccine is legit? Not even a little bit of truth bending?

Do you agree that the representation of the vaccine as a cure to end Covid rather than allegedly minimise the risk is ok?

I’m not picking fault, you’re as entitled to your views and opinions as the next person, it’s good for discussion but having spent a considerable amount of time carrying out doctoral research for various reasons, one being my own PhD, sometimes you still have to be sceptical.

The rhetoric and propaganda surrounding the vaccine is not the fault of the scientists but it’s understandable that some folk are cautious or are exercising their right to choice. A few folk not wanting it isn’t going to be as catastrophic as the hyperbole would make us believe…

Well, yes, the research is clearly legitimate. If it wasn't we'd be seeing certainly many tens and possible hundreds of thousands of deaths around now. Even if you doubted the original trial data, the figures since the rollout of the vaccines show how efficaceous the vaccines are and the safety data is clear as well, despite what the scientifically illiterate anti-vaxxers would like you to believe. The contrast between countries/regions with low vaccination rates to those with high rates is huge and is only going to increase as Delta continues to spread in the poorer countries who managed to keep the earlier variants out or simply in check.

Unfortunately, you seem to be one of those who doesn't believe the clear evidence in front of you as your comment about how the vaccines "allegedly minimise the risk" shows. The latest data out of the REACT-1 study shows that infections in fully vaccinated people are 3 times lower than in the unvaccinated:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

This is based on testing of almost 100,000 people, so a pretty well-powered study, I'm sure you'll agree. There are other studies that show virus levels drop much more quickly with breakthrough infections in the vaccinated than for those unvaccinated. Without a doubt, the vaccines reduce the chance of catching the virus - even Delta. On top of that, they reduce the severity of symptoms for breakthrough infections, reduce the risk of death and reduce the risk of passing on the virus to others.

'Herd immunity' or a successful treatment (which is a long way off yet) is the only way it will be possible to get this virus in check. The success of the early vaccines means that we're a long way towards herd immunity already, but with a fraction of the deaths we would otherwise have suffered if it had been the GBD 'let it rip' route. No protection for kids at the moment, of course.

The rhetoric and propaganda from the government has been appalling at times during the pandemic - but the stuff relating to the vaccines has been generally truthful. I don't really know what else to say here as the evidence is so clear when we look around at what is happening. We had to lockdown at the start of the year to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed by the number of cases. This wave, the government appears to have gotten away with their politically-motivated gamble to open up more as cases reached the January peaks. The vaccine rollout is the main reason for this.

Quoted from Stadium

What are your thoughts on 16 & 17 year old's receiving vaccinations regardless of parental consent?
Waiting to gather more data on the risks before sanctioning the 2nd dose? Alarm bells should be ringing with that statement.

I think that kids aged 16 and 17 have the right to decide if they want to be vaccinated and I have no problems with this. If you're old enough to leave home, get married, join the armed forces etc, you're old enough to decide if you want to be vaccinated. As things stand right now, a 16 year old can see a doctor without their parents having any knowledge about the reason - parents aren't legally entitled to know. Parental consent isn't an issue in medical situations once you are 16 and being vaccinated is a medical issue.

The 'waiting to gather more data' stuff from the JCVI is, frankly, bullshit. We'd be copying our peers now and vaccinating the over 12s if we could but we simply don't have enough Pfizer doses incoming to vaccinate all children over the next few months (unlike other countries) and don't have enough on order to guarantee a timescale for second doses, hence the crap about being cautious. As soon as we stopped using the AZ vaccine on younger people, it was always going to be an issue, especially as Novavax and others haven't been authorised as yet. Added to this is the thought that we might need to give boosters to older people. The people given the AZ vaccine will be given a Pfizer booster (as this combination has been successfully trialled) so, if they decide to go the booster route, many millions of doses will be required for older folk this autumn. In my view, they probably don't need these boosters as existing protection should be good enough in the vast majority of cases and the vaccines could be better used elsewhere, either abroad or in children. No chance the government is going to risk losing votes, however, so my guess is that the boost programme is all but a certainty.

I think we're just about into the 10s of millions of doses of the Pfizer vaccine given to children - 9 million in the US and various millions in Europe and elsewhere. The safety data shows no serious concerns - the myocarditis is an issue but is mild and treatable. Plenty of data available and readily accessible as allies share this sort of scientific information so the 'waiting for data' shtick doesn't hold any water.

We've got the Moderna coming in to vaccinate younger adults so have enough to get all of the over-18s vaccinated (I think I'm correct in believing that the Moderna hasn't been authorised for use in kids here yet?), but we don't have huge quantities available so it will be trickled out. Therefore, it's Pfizer or nothing for kids as it stands.

My guess is that the JCVI will miraculously decide enough data is available to confirm the safely of vaccinations for those aged 12 and above at just about the time that we can actually manage to give them doses, which will probably be late autumn, unless we decide not to go the booster route for the elderly and vulnerable.

As I've said in the past, it's a real shame the Novavax vaccine hasn't become available as planned due to production issues. If that had been on schedule, I'm guessing we'd have seen pretty much everyone fully vaccinated by now with further confirmatory trials already carried out on youngsters. I know they are testing lower doses of the vaccine on children to see if that is efficacious and also to eke out more doses from the production lines.

Quoted from Maringer

I think that kids aged 16 and 17 have the right to decide if they want to be vaccinated and I have no problems with this. If you're old enough to leave home, get married, join the armed forces etc, you're old enough to decide if you want to be vaccinated. As things stand right now, a 16 year old can see a doctor without their parents having any knowledge about the reason - parents aren't legally entitled to know. Parental consent isn't an issue in medical situations once you are 16 and being vaccinated is a medical issue.

The 'waiting to gather more data' stuff from the JCVI is, frankly, bullshit. We'd be copying our peers now and vaccinating the over 12s if we could but we simply don't have enough Pfizer doses incoming to vaccinate all children over the next few months (unlike other countries) and don't have enough on order to guarantee a timescale for second doses, hence the crap about being cautious. As soon as we stopped using the AZ vaccine on younger people, it was always going to be an issue, especially as Novavax and others haven't been authorised as yet. Added to this is the thought that we might need to give boosters to older people. The people given the AZ vaccine will be given a Pfizer booster (as this combination has been successfully trialled) so, if they decide to go the booster route, many millions of doses will be required for older folk this autumn. In my view, they probably don't need these boosters as existing protection should be good enough in the vast majority of cases and the vaccines could be better used elsewhere, either abroad or in children. No chance the government is going to risk losing votes, however, so my guess is that the boost programme is all but a certainty.

I think we're just about into the 10s of millions of doses of the Pfizer vaccine given to children - 9 million in the US and various millions in Europe and elsewhere. The safety data shows no serious concerns - the myocarditis is an issue but is mild and treatable. Plenty of data available and readily accessible as allies share this sort of scientific information so the 'waiting for data' shtick doesn't hold any water.

We've got the Moderna coming in to vaccinate younger adults so have enough to get all of the over-18s vaccinated (I think I'm correct in believing that the Moderna hasn't been authorised for use in kids here yet?), but we don't have huge quantities available so it will be trickled out. Therefore, it's Pfizer or nothing for kids as it stands.

My guess is that the JCVI will miraculously decide enough data is available to confirm the safely of vaccinations for those aged 12 and above at just about the time that we can actually manage to give them doses, which will probably be late autumn, unless we decide not to go the booster route for the elderly and vulnerable.

As I've said in the past, it's a real shame the Novavax vaccine hasn't become available as planned due to production issues. If that had been on schedule, I'm guessing we'd have seen pretty much everyone fully vaccinated by now with further confirmatory trials already carried out on youngsters. I know they are testing lower doses of the vaccine on children to see if that is efficacious and also to eke out more doses from the production lines.

Would you give 16/17 year olds the right to vote?

I personally don’t care if 16/17 year olds opt to have the vaccine (be interesting if they try and get in to schools to do it…their success rate at mine would be somewhat non existent). I wouldn’t be having it if I were in their shoes but they should be given the choice.

Your pro vaccine stance is compelling and fair play, at times you can sound like you work for the companies but at least you dig around for some evidence.

There are still many a sceptic, even people that have had it are sceptical and I guess the biggest issue has been the blackmailing of folk to have it. Freedom of choice has seemingly gone out of the window…

Quoted from aldi_01

Would you give 16/17 year olds the right to vote?

I personally don’t care if 16/17 year olds opt to have the vaccine (be interesting if they try and get in to schools to do it…their success rate at mine would be somewhat non existent). I wouldn’t be having it if I were in their shoes but they should be given the choice.

Your pro vaccine stance is compelling and fair play, at times you can sound like you work for the companies but at least you dig around for some evidence.

There are still many a sceptic, even people that have had it are sceptical and I guess the biggest issue has been the blackmailing of folk to have it. Freedom of choice has seemingly gone out of the window…

If you're 16 or 17 and live in Scotland, you get the right to vote in the Scottish elections so, sure, why not? You can join the armed forces if you're 16 but can't vote? Seems a bit ridiculous to me. Yes, lots of 16/17 year olds a bloody idiots, but then so are plenty of 40/50 year olds.

I don't need to work too hard to find evidence to support the vaccines. It is around us everywhere right now. In pre-Internet/social media days, everybody would have taken the vaccine when offered with barely a shrug. The toxic anti-scientific bullshit which is promulgated on much of the internet these days does make me wonder how we're going to survive as a species. Just the same as the climate change deniers - evidence is all around, the oil companies have admitted it is a thing (after decades of funding 'research' designed to muddy the waters), yet there is still a substantial proportion of the population who thinks it is some sort of conspiracy. Heck, we've even got plenty of flat-earthers out there still. flipping cretins, that bunch.

I'm very relaxed about the government using 'blackmail' if it helps to get people vaccinated to end the pandemic, therefore saving lives and reducing the numbers of people suffering from long term serious health issues. It would also let the NHS get back to catching up and removing the backlog of treatment some people have been waiting for for years. Well, it would if the government actually provided enough funding and resources which is unlikely. flipping cretins, that bunch.

It is your right to not take the vaccine when offered. It is the right of government to decide that those unvaccinated remain a big risk to others more vulnerable and therefore shouldn't be allowed to interact with them in certain more risky situations. If you don't like it, vote for a party which doesn't implement such restrictions, if you can find one.

We vaccinate children against German Measles not to protect them, but to protect those vulnerable to serious complications from the disease i.e. pregnant women. Do you think we shouldn't be vaccinating children with the MMR jab?

Quoted from Maringer

If you're 16 or 17 and live in Scotland, you get the right to vote in the Scottish elections so, sure, why not? You can join the armed forces if you're 16 but can't vote? Seems a bit ridiculous to me. Yes, lots of 16/17 year olds a bloody idiots, but then so are plenty of 40/50 year olds.

I don't need to work too hard to find evidence to support the vaccines. It is around us everywhere right now. In pre-Internet/social media days, everybody would have taken the vaccine when offered with barely a shrug. The toxic anti-scientific bullshit which is promulgated on much of the internet these days does make me wonder how we're going to survive as a species. Just the same as the climate change deniers - evidence is all around, the oil companies have admitted it is a thing (after decades of funding 'research' designed to muddy the waters), yet there is still a substantial proportion of the population who thinks it is some sort of conspiracy. Heck, we've even got plenty of flat-earthers out there still. flipping cretins, that bunch.

I'm very relaxed about the government using 'blackmail' if it helps to get people vaccinated to end the pandemic, therefore saving lives and reducing the numbers of people suffering from long term serious health issues. It would also let the NHS get back to catching up and removing the backlog of treatment some people have been waiting for for years. Well, it would if the government actually provided enough funding and resources which is unlikely. flipping cretins, that bunch.

It is your right to not take the vaccine when offered. It is the right of government to decide that those unvaccinated remain a big risk to others more vulnerable and therefore shouldn't be allowed to interact with them in certain more risky situations. If you don't like it, vote for a party which doesn't implement such restrictions, if you can find one.

We vaccinate children against German Measles not to protect them, but to protect those vulnerable to serious complications from the disease i.e. pregnant women. Do you think we shouldn't be vaccinating children with the MMR jab?

I wasn’t having a dig, the voting thing is contentious but in truth, I agree, 16/17 year olds should get a vote. Whilst there’s the few that aren’t interested, the same is said for older adults. I know more adults that take zero interest or bother to find out what each party stands for or doesn’t stand for and then just vote Becauee they like someone that many a 17 year old. That said, I’m an odd one because I’d give prisoners the vote.

I’m not disagreeing with the notion that a vaccine can end the pandemic, I’m cynical to think that plenty of folk, some in very influential positions aren’t bothered either way, especially with the cash to be made…there is a difference though between saying those who are not vaccinated are a risk (bold statement in itself) or that those not vaccinated are an issue which has been implied multiple times. Let’s face it, through out this whole debacle, government have blamed everyone but themselves for mistakes and issues…

Sadly, as predicted, this has now become a circus and will continue that way. A colleague is travelling abroad, can’t use the LFT pack she’s had at home for a weeks that we provided…had to buy different ones, they’re different apparently…when she received them, they’re identical…the constant swapping and changing of countries on so called Rag ratings, rule changes that make no sense, guidance for business/schools flip flopping, GPS still pushing back meaning folk have to go to A&E Becauee there’s no alternative (this is a personal experience along with several family members and friends) it’s all becoming more tiresome than it ever has been.

Once again, I’ve spent a week in work planning for next year but once again because of pointless testing that the vast majority will refuse, I’ve got to stagger the start to term and waste valuable time that could be used for other things to faff with tests, like I say, tests that less than half will do…we’re starting on the back foot again.

Our staff team were offered the vaccine early on, 5 weren’t allowed to have it on medical advice, 3 chose not to. Very few have continued with testing, we’ve had two closures since Christmas, 1 for staff positive test and 1 for pupil…the staff had been vaccinated, 3 more positives followed once closed, all vaccinated. Now we can talk about efficacy and the likes and I’m not disagreeing but the staff were a tad miffed to say the least…and you can understand why.

My view still stands in that it should be a choice and those that don’t have it shouldn’t be forced or cajoled in to it, nor should they be blamed for anything. Plenty of kids don’t have MMR, we don’t blame them, plenty don’t have the flu jab, we don’t blame them…

Professor Lockdown no more.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-lockdowns-unlikely-to-be-needed-again-professor-neil-ferguson-says-12375155

After his numerous incorrect predictions and modelling,how can you really believe anything he says.

That Ferguson fella! Did he get the job by mistake, a bit like the chap Guy Goma who was interviewed on Newsnight that time when he attended a job interview but was interviewed live on TV  as a "technology expert?"  ;D

"We won't have any more lockdowns..." Unless things get worse!!"

Well, go to the bottom of our stairs for that most far-reaching analysis known to man.

I am not walking the dogs tonight because it's raining. Unless it stops, obviously.

Quoted from Maringer

Unfortunately, you seem to be one of those who doesn't believe the clear evidence in front of you as your comment about how the vaccines "allegedly minimise the risk" shows. The latest data out of the REACT-1 study shows that infections in fully vaccinated people are 3 times lower than in the unvaccinated:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

Already sceptical when you realise the study was commissioned by the Government’s Department of Health and Social Care, and thats before we get into the dodgy PCR test and their false positives, at a rate that is not even known. We already know for a fact that over half the people being hospitalised are for non Covid emergency’s, and yet whilst there they will be given a test that will say they are positive! Just picture it....”What the hell, I haven’t got a single symptom, I’ve come in with a broken wrist (etc),how can I have Covid”😂

Quoted Text

Without a doubt, the vaccines reduce the chance of catching the virus - even Delta. On top of that, they reduce the severity of symptoms for breakthrough infections, reduce the risk of death and reduce the risk of passing on the virus to others.

Where’s you up to date Data to suggest ‘without doubt’ the vaccines reduce the chances of catching or passing the virus on? Plenty of reports out now to suggest you are wrong again -
https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d9504519a8ae081f785ca012b5ef84d1

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dnaindia.com/science/report-vaccinated-people-may-spread-covid-19-at-the-same-rate-as-unvaccinated-says-leaked-us-data-2903404/amp

Heck even Sky news were reporting only yesterday -

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-delta-infections-produce-similar-levels-of-virus-regardless-of-vaccination-status-suggests-early-analysis-12374244

Quoted Text

'Herd immunity' or a successful treatment (which is a long way off yet) is the only way it will be possible to get this virus in check.

I wouldn’t be to hopeful -
https://www.icelandreview.com/society/covid-19-in-iceland-vaccination-has-not-led-to-herd-immunity-says-chief-epidemiologist/

Just look at Israel one of the most vaccinated country’s in the world 6 months in front of many countries, now getting a large spike in cases, one hospital is reporting 90% hospitalised are vaccinated, now boosters being rushed through. Also reading reports this could be the start of ADE!
https://www.theepochtimes.com/majority-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-are-fully-vaccinated-at-israel-hospital-doctor_3937497.html

Not my words  “A manifestation of ADE could include greater susceptibility to infection w/o a concomitant increase in diseases severity”  I really hope this is wrong because God help us if true.

Quoted from Maringer

I think that kids aged 16 and 17 have the right to decide if they want to be vaccinated and I have no problems with this. If you're old enough to leave home, get married, join the armed forces etc, you're old enough to decide if you want to be vaccinated. As things stand right now, a 16 year old can see a doctor without their parents having any knowledge about the reason - parents aren't legally entitled to know. Parental consent isn't an issue in medical situations once you are 16 and being vaccinated is a medical issue.

The 'waiting to gather more data' stuff from the JCVI is, frankly, bullshit. We'd be copying our peers now and vaccinating the over 12s if we could but we simply don't have enough Pfizer doses incoming to vaccinate all children over the next few months (unlike other countries) and don't have enough on order to guarantee a timescale for second doses, hence the crap about being cautious. As soon as we stopped using the AZ vaccine on younger people, it was always going to be an issue, especially as Novavax and others haven't been authorised as yet. Added to this is the thought that we might need to give boosters to older people. The people given the AZ vaccine will be given a Pfizer booster (as this combination has been successfully trialled) so, if they decide to go the booster route, many millions of doses will be required for older folk this autumn. In my view, they probably don't need these boosters as existing protection should be good enough in the vast majority of cases and the vaccines could be better used elsewhere, either abroad or in children. No chance the government is going to risk losing votes, however, so my guess is that the boost programme is all but a certainty.

I think we're just about into the 10s of millions of doses of the Pfizer vaccine given to children - 9 million in the US and various millions in Europe and elsewhere. The safety data shows no serious concerns - the myocarditis is an issue but is mild and treatable. Plenty of data available and readily accessible as allies share this sort of scientific information so the 'waiting for data' shtick doesn't hold any water.

We've got the Moderna coming in to vaccinate younger adults so have enough to get all of the over-18s vaccinated (I think I'm correct in believing that the Moderna hasn't been authorised for use in kids here yet?), but we don't have huge quantities available so it will be trickled out. Therefore, it's Pfizer or nothing for kids as it stands.

My guess is that the JCVI will miraculously decide enough data is available to confirm the safely of vaccinations for those aged 12 and above at just about the time that we can actually manage to give them doses, which will probably be late autumn, unless we decide not to go the booster route for the elderly and vulnerable.

As I've said in the past, it's a real shame the Novavax vaccine hasn't become available as planned due to production issues. If that had been on schedule, I'm guessing we'd have seen pretty much everyone fully vaccinated by now with further confirmatory trials already carried out on youngsters. I know they are testing lower doses of the vaccine on children to see if that is efficacious and also to eke out more doses from the production lines.

Obviously I don’t agree with injecting youngsters we know for a fact there will be a small percentage of them that will develop heart conditions etc, etc, because of the vaccine. I don’t care how small the percentage is because 1 would be to many, absolute madness. Would be Interesting to find out why some the original JVCI were sacked..... just maybe they didn’t agree with vaccinating the kids, unlike the other members who if reports are true have links to Pfizer even funded by them.

Absolutely agree with you regarding the Novavax why have we not got this option yet, I struggle to believe that it’s down to production issues!
I’ve read a lot about this vaccine and it’s possibly the one I would take.

You still dodging the bullet Humbo?

Quoted from KingstonMariner

You still dodging the bullet Humbo?

Not had the vaccine so no 😀
1. No comorbidities
2. High Vitamin D levels
3. 100 Ivermectin tablets on stand-by if/when I get the slightest of symptoms.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

That Ferguson fella! Did he get the job by mistake, a bit like the chap Guy Goma who was interviewed on Newsnight that time when he attended a job interview but was interviewed live on TV  as a "technology expert?"  ;D

"We won't have any more lockdowns..." Unless things get worse!!"

Well, go to the bottom of our stairs for that most far-reaching analysis known to man.

I am not walking the dogs tonight because it's raining. Unless it stops, obviously.

Hold the front page ,he's back !!!

A "large" wave of coronavirus cases could hit Britain come autumn, with as many as 1,000 people admitted to hospital each day, according to Professor Neil Ferguson.

The infectious disease modeller, dubbed "Professor lockdown", told BBC Radio 4 that current case rates - which have "plateaued" at around 30,000 a day - are "sobering" as we head towards September, when schools will reopen and people head back to the office.

"We still have the potential of quite a large wave of infection in September, October," he warned, though he suggested that the UK is "unlikely" to see as many deaths as in January thanks to the vaccine rollout.

"The real question... is what does that do to NHS demand and admissions to hospitals?" Prof Ferguson said.

"And in the worst-case scenarios we could be getting, probably not up to January levels, but still at levels of well over 1,000 admissions per day potentially. Which does stress the health system and we already have very long backlogs in the health system - any stress on it is is challenging."

His comments came after rules were eased so fully-vaccinated adults will no longer have to isolate if they come into contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19, a change some have welcomed as  "another step back towards normality".

School is out, which has been a big factor in the cases halving from the 60,000 we were seeing a month ago. Unfortunately, numbers have recently plateaued rather than continuing to fall further. The dropping of restrictions last month seems to have been pretty much balanced out by kids being out of school. At least it is giving those aged 16 and above the chance to get some protection from the vaccines, even if the younger pupils aren't so lucky.

If you remember the big surge in infection which last September (daily cases increased six-fold that month and this before the more infectious variant now called Alpha developed), you should realise we've still got a lot to be worried about. Especially when you consider that we currently have 30 times the daily cases of this point last year (and slowly rising), 10 times the hospitalisations (and slowly rising) and 10 times the deaths (and slowly rising). All with the Delta variant which is approximately 2.5 times as infectious as the variant in circulation last September.

With mitigations in schools being all but dropped come September plus adults and under-18s no longer being required to isolate after contact with confirmed cases, it seems government policy is to deliberately get as many children infected as possible before winter comes. Given that the hospitals are under huge pressure even now, it is a massive gamble. Around 1 in 200 confirmed cases (so mostly symptomatic ones - some will be asymptomatic or have very mild infection) in children are requiring hospitalisation at present. With approximately 9 million kids in under the age of 16 in school in September, most of whom won't have any protection against the virus from prior infection, that's potentially a lot of kids in hospital this autumn/winter.

Given that protection against symptomatic infection with Delta appears to be around 50% for the fully vaccinated, that's a lot of other people who are going to catch it as it spreads throughout the community.

Ferguson seems likely to be correct about this one and I can't see anything which is going to stop the spread really taking off once again in September. In fact, with the dropping of many isolation requirements from today, I'd be surprised if it wasn't well on the way upwards by the end of this month.

Some say that covid will continue like the flu over decades to come. Given this and that although it does affect the under, say, 30's but not kill them like the elderly I wondered if they should have the jab now.

My reasoning is simple in that the young will grow old one day. If they are inoculated now then their bodies should be protected for later on in life. Incidentally, it amazes me how the anti-vax brigade who now have covid and are dying all say they wish they'd had the jab.

Quoted from DB

Some say that covid will continue like the flu over decades to come. Given this and that although it does affect the under, say, 30's but not kill them like the elderly I wondered if they should have the jab now.

My reasoning is simple in that the young will grow old one day. If they are inoculated now then their bodies should be protected for later on in life. Incidentally, it amazes me how the anti-vax brigade who now have covid and are dying all say they wish they'd had the jab.

The last sentence is questionable, they did prove that a number of those who didn’t have the vaccine and then ‘caught Covid’ claiming they should’ve had the jab were indeed actors…it’s like a emotional blackmail approach, utter nonsense and quite unsavoury really.

It should always be about choice and I’d someone does or doesn’t have it, neither should be made an example.

Quoted from aldi_01

The last sentence is questionable, they did prove that a number of those who didn’t have the vaccine and then ‘caught Covid’ claiming they should’ve had the jab were indeed actors…it’s like a emotional blackmail approach, utter nonsense and quite unsavoury really.

It should always be about choice and I’d someone does or doesn’t have it, neither should be made an example.

Is there a link to a news site where “they” proved these who died are supposedly actors ?  First I have heard of this

Quoted from codcheeky

Is there a link to a news site where “they” proved these who died are supposedly actors ?  First I have heard of this

Saw a few articles on social media from legitimate sources, can’t be arsed to find them now. It’s out there is people want to find it. It’s something that’s been done before…surely folk know about crisis actors etc?

The point is more that trotting out these alleged emotive stories of people allegedly on their death bed claiming they should’ve had a vaccine are tiresome…

Anyway; this thread can be closed now. Covid is done, terrorism in the Middle East is back…the west has a new focus…

Quoted from aldi_01

Saw a few articles on social media from legitimate sources, can’t be arsed to find them now. It’s out there is people want to find it. It’s something that’s been done before…surely folk know about crisis actors etc?

The point is more that trotting out these alleged emotive stories of people allegedly on their death bed claiming they should’ve had a vaccine are tiresome…

Anyway; this thread can be closed now. Covid is done, terrorism in the Middle East is back…the west has a new focus…

Legitimate sources and social media do not always spring to mind as a verification of hard facts.  We all have our own view of the virus, the vaccine and policy and it’s effects. Sometimes the internet is fantastic for conformation bias .
I would tend to think anyone sensible would admit to regretting not taking something that could if not would have saved their life.
I wish the vaccine had been available earlier and then maybe my Grandmother would still be alive. If you have not been affected in a tragic way personally it is a lot easier to play down the devastation this virus has cased and still is causing. There have been an average of  over a hundred deaths a day from it in the last week COVID is not “done” as you put it

So the person that consistently spouts the Government line (which keeps getting it wrong) is back saying we’re lucky the case numbers are low because the kids are out of school! The ones over 16 are the lucky ones, but the younger ones aren’t!… are my eyes deceiving me or have I just read that correctly???


It’s funny how he didn’t factor in the kids when he was predicting - 100,000s+ cases on here. The truth is the kids are just a convenient excuse, when the kids were in school we were being told they were super spreaders yet the school teachers were not at a higher risk than the rest of the general public according to the ONS.

I can’t believe he’s spinning younger children are ‘unlucky’ because they’ve not had the jabs, when healthy children are not at serious risk from covid. But looking at some latest stats from USA we can see their is a risk when taking these vaccines and this is before they start on the younger ones-
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/cdc-vaers-data-deaths-adverse-events-covid-vaccines-including-children/
So a quick snap shot shows pfizer over 2000 AE’s with 7 deaths, 166 myocarditis, Moderna - 91 AE’s with 2deaths, I could also argue how many adverse reactions don’t actually get reported, with some reports reading only as little as 1- 10%. Like I’ve said before 1 death is to many, I have to ask what kind of parent would play Russian roulette with their children’s lives like this!

As for cases they will comes down when they change the hospital reporting rules as we already know at least half are testing positive whilst at the hospital after being admitted with other things, If the dodgy PCR test being scrapped in USA has to be used then only on the symptomatic.

He’s still quoting Ferguson again about next month so things should be calming down a bit 😂

The genuine case increase will happen when the autumn flu season really kicks in usually Dec-March, I think this is pretty much universal, the hospitals will then be full of vaccinated patients and this is when things will get really interesting with lots of finger pointing no doubt..

Quoted from DB

Some say that covid will continue like the flu over decades to come. Given this and that although it does affect the under, say, 30's but not kill them like the elderly I wondered if they should have the jab now.

My reasoning is simple in that the young will grow old one day. If they are inoculated now then their bodies should be protected for later on in life. Incidentally, it amazes me how the anti-vax brigade who now have covid and are dying all say they wish they'd had the jab.

1. You do know that these Jabs don’t give full of lasting protection, jabs will need to be continued for a lifetime with your logic.
2. Who are all these  anti - vaxers dying wishing they’d had the jab?

There was one local man (not sure if he was an anti-vaxer) whom was reported to be in poor health.

Quoted from Humbercod

1. You do know that these Jabs don’t give full of lasting protection, jabs will need to be continued for a lifetime with your logic.
2. Who are all these  anti - vaxers dying wishing they’d had the jab?

There was one local man (not sure if he was an anti-vaxer) whom was reported to be in poor health.

1. Yes I do know this and look forward to my next along with my annual flu jab.
2. Read in the Daily Press a few weeks ago.

I also read that they (cannot remember who) are supposed to be working on a new lifetime jab.  My main concern though is that while the young people should not die of covid now, they might when they get older if they get covid. I think it is better to be safe than sorry.

Quoted from Maringer

School is out, which has been a big factor in the cases halving from the 60,000 we were seeing a month ago. Unfortunately, numbers have recently plateaued rather than continuing to fall further. The dropping of restrictions last month seems to have been pretty much balanced out by kids being out of school. At least it is giving those aged 16 and above the chance to get some protection from the vaccines, even if the younger pupils aren't so lucky.

If you remember the big surge in infection which last September (daily cases increased six-fold that month and this before the more infectious variant now called Alpha developed), you should realise we've still got a lot to be worried about. Especially when you consider that we currently have 30 times the daily cases of this point last year (and slowly rising), 10 times the hospitalisations (and slowly rising) and 10 times the deaths (and slowly rising). All with the Delta variant which is approximately 2.5 times as infectious as the variant in circulation last September.

With mitigations in schools being all but dropped come September plus adults and under-18s no longer being required to isolate after contact with confirmed cases, it seems government policy is to deliberately get as many children infected as possible before winter comes. Given that the hospitals are under huge pressure even now, it is a massive gamble. Around 1 in 200 confirmed cases (so mostly symptomatic ones - some will be asymptomatic or have very mild infection) in children are requiring hospitalisation at present. With approximately 9 million kids in under the age of 16 in school in September, most of whom won't have any protection against the virus from prior infection, that's potentially a lot of kids in hospital this autumn/winter.

Given that protection against symptomatic infection with Delta appears to be around 50% for the fully vaccinated, that's a lot of other people who are going to catch it as it spreads throughout the community.

Ferguson seems likely to be correct about this one and I can't see anything which is going to stop the spread really taking off once again in September. In fact, with the dropping of many isolation requirements from today, I'd be surprised if it wasn't well on the way upwards by the end of this month.

Has he ever predicted figures or a scenario which even comes close to fruition?
I suppose if you keep churning out models,predictions etc eventually one will become true.

Its easy to see why people see him as a comedy figure & not a respected scientist.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure-of-imperial-college-modeling-is-far-worse-than-we-knew/

Christ on a bike, you're actually quoting an article from the organisers of the Great Barrington Declaration as a source worth consideration? Bear in mind that two of the authors of the declaration were claiming we were pretty much at herd immunity last year (Gupta was saying we might be at it in July 2020!). Bhattacharya claimed India was at herd immunity in January this year. Not really working out very well, those predictions, are they?

As for Ferguson and his Imperial team, their modelling at the start of the pandemic predicted there could be 500,000 deaths if no restrictions were implemented. Pretty sure we saw one or two restrictions last year? You know, lockdown for months, closure of schools, furlough, distancing, all that sort of stuff. Some of the attacks on Ferguson's work are laughable in their ignorance.

A lot wss still to be learned about the virus when this modelling took place so the estimate wasn't accurate, but post hoc analysis using data from the CDC and sero prevalence (i.e. how many had antibodies indicating prior infection) came up with numbers of 385K deaths and 346K UK deaths respectively:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00029-X/fulltext

OK, a lot lower than 500K, but would you have been happy to see 350K+ deaths in the UK last year? But, yeah, by all means try to mock Ferguson if you like.

I'm just glad his work got more traction than that of the GBDers you seem to be keen on.

Quoted from Maringer

Christ on a bike, you're actually quoting an article from the organisers of the Great Barrington Declaration as a source worth consideration? Bear in mind that two of the authors of the declaration were claiming we were pretty much at herd immunity last year (Gupta was saying we might be at it in July 2020!). Bhattacharya claimed India was at herd immunity in January this year. Not really working out very well, those predictions, are they?

As for Ferguson and his Imperial team, their modelling at the start of the pandemic predicted there could be 500,000 deaths if no restrictions were implemented. Pretty sure we saw one or two restrictions last year? You know, lockdown for months, closure of schools, furlough, distancing, all that sort of stuff. Some of the attacks on Ferguson's work are laughable in their ignorance.

A lot wss still to be learned about the virus when this modelling took place so the estimate wasn't accurate, but post hoc analysis using data from the CDC and sero prevalence (i.e. how many had antibodies indicating prior infection) came up with numbers of 385K deaths and 346K UK deaths respectively:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00029-X/fulltext

OK, a lot lower than 500K, but would you have been happy to see 350K+ deaths in the UK last year? But, yeah, by all means try to mock Ferguson if you like.

I'm just glad his work got more traction than that of the GBDers you seem to be keen on.

Thanks for the explanation.
Interesting that you seem to think your previous sources such as a Silicon Valley executive & a "mathematician, risk manager and strategist" seem to outweigh any other persons opinions.

Are you confirming the facts in article are incorrect?

Odd Mr Ferguson was apologising last week for his recent prediction which he admitted was incorrect again.

What are you talking about? The linked Lancet article was authored by a research psychologist who works for the US Military and a medical doctor (who also has also worked for the US military).

I'll assume they know their onions and the methodology is reasonable as otherwise, The Lancet probably wouldn't have published the article in one of their journals?

As for the GBDer article, I only skimmed it before because, well, the AIER is a suspiciously well-funded American libertarian group pushing climate change risk denial and, surprise, surprise, Covid risk denial - hence the GBD nonsense. Reading anything they publish is a waste of time, because it is going to dishonestly misrepresent any 'evidence'. As a case in point, this article (which you made me waste time reading) is accusing the Imperial College predictions of being wrong about Sweden. They didn't publish any predictions for the pandemic in Sweden and didn't claim to. The whole premise of the article is based on something which didn't happen. Now, numbers were apparently passed through their UK model for other countries (without any specific adaptations to reflect the demographics or population density or, well, anything, I'd imagine), and stuck away in the back of an Excel file. Cue the claim that Imperial (and therefore Ferguson) got numbers wrong about something they never claimed to be the case! Sheer idiocy.

The most dishonest misrepresentation of this risible article is the claims that the unpublished numbers were so massively wrong about countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. These were some of the few countries where the pandemic was successfully suppressed at the earliest stages and it is only now, with more infectious Delta, that the problems are beginning there. Of course countries which suppressed the virus before it became widespread didn't have a large number of deaths! Ferguson/Imperial didn't make any claims about those countries either, did they?

All the modellers were surprised after the number of cases dropped from the 60,000 peak and Ferguson wasn't the only one to get that initial call wrong. However, this is almost certainly due to factors I've already mentioned. Most notable is that the modellers were expecting people to be less cautious following the unlocking and to have close contact with more people. The CoMix study indicates that the opposite occurred - in general, most people had fewer close contacts and this seems to be continuing in the most recent data:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/comix/Comix%20Weekly%20Report%2071.pdf

Surprising, really, but no doubt that people are stopping their masking and this is why rates have begun to creep up again now. It's going to go up ridiculously quickly once they are back in school. Just look what's started to happen in Scotland now they are back at school (and they still have some mitigations in place).

The Lancet Ha Ha he’s toying with you Stadium.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200605/lancet-retracts-hydroxychloroquine-study

Ooh they’ve got form
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12324118

Sorry, HC, can't see what you've posted. I blocked you weeks ago due to your propensity to post anti-scientific nonsense.

I seem to recall you were keen on posting stuff by the HART Group.

Their internal chat logs have been released online (somebody unauthorised joined their chat group because they had crap security - not even a hack, really), and it turns out that they are anti-vaxx whackjobs as suspected. More information in this twitter thread:



A disingenuous and dishonest bunch of nutters is my take from those messages. Apparently there are many more available to read, none of which make very good reading.

As for the pandemic in general, some disturbing things are happening in Scotland. Cases have more than doubled in just a few days with positivity rate from tests of 9% which is a serious problem. Cases in Wales have doubled over the past week as well. With this in mind, not sure why cases in England should be merely creeping upwards. What could be the explanation for the different rates between the countries? Scotland's schools have been back for weeks, but Welsh schools are still out. Very worrying.

You still sulking because they shot you’re Covid brain shrinking scare story to pieces?

Wow you’re actually asking why cases are rising? Unlike you to give you’re opinion?

Quoted from Maringer

What are you talking about? The linked Lancet article was authored by a research psychologist who works for the US Military and a medical doctor (who also has also worked for the US military).

I'll assume they know their onions and the methodology is reasonable as otherwise, The Lancet probably wouldn't have published the article in one of their journals?

As for the GBDer article, I only skimmed it before because, well, the AIER is a suspiciously well-funded American libertarian group pushing climate change risk denial and, surprise, surprise, Covid risk denial - hence the GBD nonsense. Reading anything they publish is a waste of time, because it is going to dishonestly misrepresent any 'evidence'. As a case in point, this article (which you made me waste time reading) is accusing the Imperial College predictions of being wrong about Sweden. They didn't publish any predictions for the pandemic in Sweden and didn't claim to. The whole premise of the article is based on something which didn't happen. Now, numbers were apparently passed through their UK model for other countries (without any specific adaptations to reflect the demographics or population density or, well, anything, I'd imagine), and stuck away in the back of an Excel file. Cue the claim that Imperial (and therefore Ferguson) got numbers wrong about something they never claimed to be the case! Sheer idiocy.

The most dishonest misrepresentation of this risible article is the claims that the unpublished numbers were so massively wrong about countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. These were some of the few countries where the pandemic was successfully suppressed at the earliest stages and it is only now, with more infectious Delta, that the problems are beginning there. Of course countries which suppressed the virus before it became widespread didn't have a large number of deaths! Ferguson/Imperial didn't make any claims about those countries either, did they?

All the modellers were surprised after the number of cases dropped from the 60,000 peak and Ferguson wasn't the only one to get that initial call wrong. However, this is almost certainly due to factors I've already mentioned. Most notable is that the modellers were expecting people to be less cautious following the unlocking and to have close contact with more people. The CoMix study indicates that the opposite occurred - in general, most people had fewer close contacts and this seems to be continuing in the most recent data:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/comix/Comix%20Weekly%20Report%2071.pdf

Surprising, really, but no doubt that people are stopping their masking and this is why rates have begun to creep up again now. It's going to go up ridiculously quickly once they are back in school. Just look what's started to happen in Scotland now they are back at school (and they still have some mitigations in place).

Note "previous" when your earlier twitter 'experts" were quoted.
Good to hear you have actually wasted your time and managed to read the article.
Are you saying the facts are incorrect & if so why is the article still posted without retractions since April?

Erm, perhaps because the AIER isn't interested in truth and fact, but deals in attempting to muddy the waters with disinformation? It's why they gathered together useful idiots such as Gupta to pen the GBD and cast doubt on life-saving policies. Their theories of herd immunity being reached a long time ago have been proven to be ridiculous and they've destroyed their reputations, but the AIER really doesn't care. It has enough money to publicise the musings of another bunch of useful idiots when the time next comes.

I've stated why the AIER article is bunkum. If you think I'm wrong, tell me why and provide evidence. "It hasn't been removed" isn't an argument about truthfulness when you're taking about the Internet.

Quoted from Maringer

Erm, perhaps because the AIER isn't interested in truth and fact, but deals in attempting to muddy the waters with disinformation? It's why they gathered together useful idiots such as Gupta to pen the GBD and cast doubt on life-saving policies. Their theories of herd immunity being reached a long time ago have been proven to be ridiculous and they've destroyed their reputations, but the AIER really doesn't care. It has enough money to publicise the musings of another bunch of useful idiots when the time next comes.

I've stated why the AIER article is bunkum. If you think I'm wrong, tell me why and provide evidence. "It hasn't been removed" isn't an argument about truthfulness when you're taking about the Internet.

The article doesn't seem to be challenged at all?
Strange that.
You're certainly right about the internet though,dubious sources used everywhere.

Quoted from Maringer

I've stated why the AIER article is bunkum. If you think I'm wrong, tell me why and provide evidence. "It hasn't been removed" isn't an argument about truthfulness when you're taking about the Internet.

To reiterate my point.

Interesting read on Sweden's model especially the comments around its unsuitability to the UK


The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to better mental health, a healthier economy and happier schoolchildren

While Sweden's decision to stay open throughout the pandemic generated international debate, the controversy passed most people in Sweden by

Sweden's coronavirus policy seems to have paid off
It's the start of the new school year in Sweden, and the highly infectious delta variant is starting to hit the country hard, with cases having doubled since the end of July.

In a lot of countries that would mean one thing: lockdown. But not in Sweden. Instead, at Sorgenfri school in central Malmö, the only visible anti-Covid measure is a ban on parents entering the school building.

"I'm not worried at all," says Elin Brusewitz, 35, as her son played with his skateboard beside her. "We were fine during the last outbreaks. I guess I'm a typical Swede: not worried unless the authorities tell me to be worried.".

Sweden's decision to eschew lockdown and leave pubs, restaurants, shopping centres and primary schools open throughout the pandemic generated furious discussion internationally.

Millions of people across the world have been confined to their homes, watched businesses go under, and struggled to stay on top of their studies amid wave after wave of restrictions to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

But for some 10 million Swedes, the eighteen months since the first local Covid-19 case was registered last February have been largely unremarkable.

Two-thirds of people are not worried about the consequences of the pandemic for them and their family, according to the most recent opinion survey for the Civil Contingencies Agency, carried out in mid-June.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, Public Health Agency of Sweden, enjoying a beer while working on his laptop at an outdoor restaurant in Stockholm, Sweden
Anders Tegnell was the architect of Sweden's strategy CREDIT: TT News Agency
And there is broad support for the government’s choices. Just a quarter felt the authorities should have given public health greater priority over the economy. Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist who was the architect of Sweden's strategy, was last week voted "most important Swede of the year" by the readers of Sweden's leading supermarket magazine.

That is not to say the virus has not taken its toll - nearly 15,000 people have died in total, around 1,450 per million. But that death rate is lower than the average for the European Union as a whole (1,684), and well below those of France, Spain, Italy and the UK.

Some now concede Sweden has not become the cautionary tale many predicted.

"Many times I would have thought that the situation would have gone a different way, but it worked for Sweden," said Samir Bhatt, professor of Public Health at the University of Copenhagen, and one of the team at Imperial College who pushed the UK's lockdown strategy.

“They achieved infection control; they managed to keep infections relatively low and they didn't have any health care collapse.”

The real benefits of Sweden’s radical policy, however, can be seen in the economy, the psychological impact, and in schools.


At the end of the first wave last year, the IMF predicted that Sweden's economy would contract by 7 per cent in 2020. In the end, GDP shrank by just 2.8 per cent, significantly lower than the EU average of 6 per cent and the UK - a staggering 9.8 per cent.

Sweden's economy has also bounced back faster than any other country in Europe. By  June, GDP had overtaken where it was before the pandemic struck and the economy is estimated to grow by 4.6 per cent this year.

The government avoided splashing out on costly financial-support packages, spending just $22bn (£16bn) - 4.2 per cent of its GDP - on wage subsidies and other measures.

As a result, in 2020, the country recorded the second-smallest budget deficit in the European Union after Denmark, and its national debt has come through the crisis almost unscathed.  

"The public finances have been hit relatively lightly compared to most countries, probably due to the fact that we have used less draconian measures," Urban Hansson Brusewitz, Director General of Sweden's National Institute of Economic Research [and no relation to Elin], told the Telegraph.

The psychological toll of the pandemic also appears to have been less dramatic in Sweden.


The National Board of Health and Welfare reported a continuation in the decline in the number of people seeking treatment for anxiety and depression, particularly among children and young adults.


A large part of this is likely down to the decision to keep primary and lower secondary schools open throughout. Even in upper secondary schools, only children who test positive or have been formally contact-traced are asked to stay home.

Entire schools and classes were quarantined very rarely and only in exceptional circumstances if advised by a local infectious disease doctor. That’s a marked contrast to the UK, where as many as a million children were sent home from school during the "pingdemic".

"We are very happy that we kept our schools open. I think that that is very important," explained Sara Byfors, unit chief at the Public Health Agency.

An analysis of national grades published by the Swedish National Agency for Education last month found no evidence that the pandemic had negatively affected children's educational attainment.

"The fact that grades have stayed stable suggests that both teachers and pupils have handled this tough pandemic year well," said the agency's general director Peter Fredriksson in a statement. "No group of pupils seems to have been affected more negatively than any other."

Students run out of their school celebrating their high school graduation at Nacka Gymnasium in Stockholm, Sweden

Ms Byfors said the worst impact of the pandemic appeared to have been on the few people who did have to quarantine.

"We know that it had a big effect on the elderly that were isolated, and we also know that a lot of children were affected if they were in the higher grades that had to have distance learning," she said. "How big it is and what the long-term effects will be [is] still to be determined."

However, Dr Bhatt, the University of Copenhagen professor, is keen to point out that for all of its successes, Sweden saw more Covid fatalities than its Nordic neighbours who took a more interventionist approach.

The death rate was between three and four times that of Denmark, and nearly 10 times those of Finland and Norway - suggesting Swedes died that didn’t need to.

And Dr Bhatt does not think another, non-Nordic country such as Britain could have copied Sweden’s policies and got the same results.

With about 23 people per square kilometre, Sweden has about a tenth of the population density of the UK, while about half of Swedish households comprise just one person - a major factor in local transmission.


In a paper published last week in science journal Nature, Dr Bhatt, together with the UK's former government advisor Neil Ferguson and other researchers, estimated that if the UK had adopted Sweden’s policies, its death rate would have been between two and four times higher.

"What Sweden did was a pandemic response that involved large numbers of interventions, a considerable amount of reliance on population behaviour and population adherence, and a reliance on the intricacies of what makes Swedish culture Swedish culture,” Dr Bhatt said.

"If the UK had adopted what Sweden did, I have no doubt in my mind that it would have had an absolute disaster.

For residents of Malmö, the gamble has paid off.

Zaina Vujcics is a podiatrist who runs a small business close to Sorgenfri school that was able to stay open throughout the pandemic. She is adamant: "Sweden has had the best coronavirus policy.”

"In Denmark, in Norway, in France, Belgium, everywhere else, I would have had to close," she said. "I am so happy to be living in Sweden."

Sweden was an interesting case because their approach was so different to that of other countries, including their direct neighbours. Neighbours who had much, much better outcomes in terms of numbers of infections and deaths. Norway and Finland had about a tenth of the number. The Swedes cocked up with care homes in the same way that we did and suffered lots of deaths because of it, so that made things worse in that regard. Don't know about Norway and Finland

Very much a different situation to countries such as ourselves or other similarly highly-populous countries. The population density is very low in Sweden - amongst the lowest in the EU which obviously means less chance of transmission. Perhaps of more note is the fact that more than half of Swedish households contain just 1 person living in them and roughly a third of older folk live alone:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-housing-crowded-lowered-coronavirus-death-rate-2020-9?r=US&IR=T

UK equivalent, less than 30% of households are single person. Pretty remarkable situation over there in comparison. Their weaker restrictions, allied with the Swedish propensity to follow the advice of the authorities meant that the virus didn't take off there last year in the way it did in many countries.

The Swedish approach might not have been too disastrous for them (except for those who died or have suffered long-term illness, of course), but almost certainly would have been in countries with higher population density and fewer single-person households.

Still not looking to clever in Highly vaccinated Israel!
Interesting also to see a BBC report asking the question over the weekend - Is it better for the vaccinated to get the virus now rather than the booster?

From the report-

"We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh,

Prof Adam Finn, a government vaccine adviser, said over-vaccinating people, when other parts of the world had none, was "a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid".

Quoted from Humbercod

Still not looking to clever in Highly vaccinated Israel!
Interesting also to see a BBC report asking the question over the weekend - Is it better for the vaccinated to get the virus now rather than the booster?

From the report-

"We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh,

Prof Adam Finn, a government vaccine adviser, said over-vaccinating people, when other parts of the world had none, was "a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid".

Anecdotes tell us what the data can’t: Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others.

Though it is evident vaccination still provides powerful protection against the virus, there’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.

There’s a dearth of scientific studies with concrete answers, leaving public policy makers and corporate executives to formulate plans based on fragmented information. While some are renewing mask mandates or delaying office reopenings, others cite the lack of clarity to justify staying the course. It can all feel like a mess.


“We have to be humble about what we do know and what we don’t know,” said Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the head of the nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives. “There are a few things we can say definitively. One is that this is a hard question to address.”


Absent clear public health messaging, vaccinated people are left confused about how to protect themselves. Just how vulnerable they are is a key variable not just for public health officials trying to figure out, say, when booster shots might be needed, but also to inform decisions about whether to roll back reopenings amid a new wave of the virus. On a smaller scale, the unknowns have left music lovers unsure if it’s OK to see a concert and prompted a fresh round of hang-wringing among parents pondering what school is going to look like.

In lieu of answers, what has emerged is a host of case studies providing somewhat different pictures of breakthrough infections. Variables including when the surveys were conducted, whether the delta variant was present, how much of the population was vaccinated and even what the weather was like at the time make it hard to compare results and suss out patterns. It’s difficult to know which data might ultimately carry more heft.

“It’s quite clear that we have more breakthroughs now,” said Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. “We all know someone who has had one. But we don’t have great clinical data.”


One of the best known outbreaks among vaccinated people occurred in the small beach town of Provincetown, Massachusetts, as thousands of vaccinated and unvaccinated alike gathered on dance floors and at house parties over the Fourth of July weekend to celebrate the holiday -- and what seemed like a turning point in the pandemic. About three-fourths of the 469 infections were among vaccinated people.


Authors of a CDC case study said this might mean that they were just as likely to transmit Covid-19 as the unvaccinated. Even so, they cautioned, as more people are vaccinated, it’s natural that they would also account for a larger share of Covid-19 infections and this one study was not sufficient to draw any conclusions. The incident prompted the CDC to reverse a recommendation it had issued just a few weeks earlier and once again urge the vaccinated to mask up in certain settings.

Still, the particular details of that cluster of cases may have made that outbreak especially bad, according to Gandhi.

“The rate of mild symptomatic outbreaks in this population was higher because of a lot of indoor activity (including intimacy), rain that weekend, not much outside time and mixture of people with different vaccination status,” she said in an email.

A newly released, far larger CDC case study of infections in New York state, meanwhile, found that the number of breakthrough infections has steadily ticked up since May, accounting for almost 4% of cases by mid-July. Those researchers cautioned that factors such as easing public health restrictions and the rise of the highly contagious delta variant might impact the results.

Yet another CDC case study, in Colorado, found that the breakthrough infection rate in one county, Mesa, was significantly higher than the rest of the state, at 7% versus about 5%. The report suggested it was perhaps because the delta variant was circulating more widely there, but also noted the ages of patients in Mesa and the lower vaccination rate may have played a role.

Research out of Israel seems to back the idea that protection from severe disease wanes in the months after inoculation, and more recently, that breakthrough cases may eventually lead to an uptick in hospitalizations. The information is preliminary and severe breakthrough cases are still rare, but it bolsters the case that some people will need booster shots in coming months.

Case studies and data from some states in the U.S. have similarly shown an increase in breakthrough cases over time. But with the delta variant also on the rise, it’s difficult to tell whether waning immunity to any type of coronavirus infection is to blame, or if the vaccinations are particularly ineffective against the delta variant. It could be both, of course. Changing behavior among vaccinated people could be a factor, too, as they return to social gatherings and travel and dining indoors.

All that said, some facts are well established at this point. Vaccinated people infected with the virus are much less likely to need to go to the hospital, much less likely to need intubation and much less likely to die from the illness. There’s no doubt that vaccines provide significant protection. But a large proportion of the nation -- almost 30% of U.S. adults -- have not been vaccinated, a fact that has conspired with the highly contagious delta variant to push the country into a new wave of outbreaks.

“The big picture here is that the vaccines are working and the reason for the spike in the U.S. is we have too little vaccine uptake,” Frieden said.

To a certain extent, breakthrough cases of any virus are expected. In clinical trials, no Covid vaccine was 100% effective -- even the best vaccines never are. The more the virus is in circulation, the greater the risk of breakthrough cases. It’s also common for some aspects of viral immunity to naturally wane over time.

  
For the time being, there are simply more questions than answers. Are breakthrough infections ticking up because of the delta variant, waning immunity or a return to normal life? Are vaccinated people more vulnerable to severe illness than previously thought? Just how common are breakthrough infections? It’s anyone’s guess.

“It is generally the case that we have to make public health decisions based on imperfect data,” Frieden said. “But there is just a lot we don’t know.”

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

That Ferguson fella! Did he get the job by mistake, a bit like the chap Guy Goma who was interviewed on Newsnight that time when he attended a job interview but was interviewed live on TV  as a "technology expert?"  ;D

"We won't have any more lockdowns..." Unless things get worse!!"

Well, go to the bottom of our stairs for that most far-reaching analysis known to man.

I am not walking the dogs tonight because it's raining. Unless it stops, obviously.

He's appeared again.


The UK will see a “significant surge” in Covid-19 cases following the return of schools, but it is too early to say whether certain restrictions will need to be reintroduced, a leading scientist has said.


Professor Neil Ferguson, who was a leading figure in the Government’s original Covid response in early 2020, said if daily cases start going above 100,000 to 150,000 there will be “significant demands on the health system”.


Prof Ferguson, from Imperial College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said it will be for the Government to decide on potential measures.


He said: “We expect to see quite a significant surge in cases, to some extent in hospitalisations, but whether that's going to require any rolling back of the relaxation of restrictions is too early to say. It really depends on the level of healthcare demand.”


He added that vaccination has changed the relationship between case numbers and hospitalisations - but surpassing 100,000 cases could lead to increased demand on the NHS and push the Government to decide “what the implications are for policy”.

Exactly the same as a resident poster stated,are they one ??

Of course there will be a huge surge in infections now the kids are back at school! Why wouldn't there be?

The mitigations in place in schools last September have been all but removed now - no bubbles, no masking, isolation requirements removed or greatly reduced etc etc. All this with Delta now utterly dominant which is more than twice as infectious as the virus in circulation a year ago. The vaccine programme has been a success at reducing the number of deaths and serious illness, but only among those who are vaccinated. Which is not children. A tiny proportion of children have been vaccinated and therefore have no protection against infection. Prior infection with Covid provides a reasonable amount of protection against Delta, but a lot of children haven't been infected and have no protection. That is a lot of people just waiting to be infected. Not to mention their parents and grandparents who are still vulnerable to infection even if vaccinated (though not for severe illness as was the case last September).

If you can think of a single piece of evidence which shows why you don't think cases are going to rocket now the schools are back, then please post it. It will be interesting to see, that's for sure. Note, the studies released claiming Covid doesn't spread in schools were pretty terrible, not least because one was carried out before Alpha even emerged (~50% more infectious than previous variants), but also because the second was carried out during the earliest part of the Delta surge where no end of kids were off school isolating and therefore couldn't spread the virus, if they had it. Pretty much gaslighting the way that 'evidence' was pushed.

Regardless, even if the absolute risk to most children is low, we've still been seeing around 300 hospitalisations of children per week over the summer when they weren't mixing so the numbers of infections will rise in children, as will the numbers of hospitalisations and the paediatric ICU capacity is at full-stretch already. Breakthrough cases into older relatives who are still more likely to become seriously ill, even if vaccinated are going to be a major problem as well. The difference in absolute numbers between now and this point last year is ludicrous, somewhere over 25 times as many daily cases:



Covid hospitalisations are currently about 8 times the level they were at this time last year and rising slowly, even before the impact of school reopening is felt. Ah, you say, but the number of deaths is lower. No, the daily number of deaths is 10 times higher than it was a year ago and also still rising. The politicians might claim that the link between infections and deaths has been broken, but it hasn't. What has occurred is that the vaccines and available treatments have reduced the ratio of deaths to infections. A good thing, but we're not exactly out of the woods yet. The current daily rate of deaths equates to about 40,000 deaths a year and that's before we enter the colder winter months - that's not much under twice the level of typical flu deaths each year. Those flu deaths mostly occur in the winter and we will see another flu season this winter, possibly worse than the last real one a couple of years ago. That will be addition to most Covid deaths.

It is pretty obvious to me that government policy is to actively get the virus spreading through schools as quickly as possible before the winter kicks in and the NHS is too busy to treat the children who require hospitalisation. This will lead to more immediate cases over the next couple of months than would have been the case if masking and other mitigations had continued. Let's hope it doesn't lead to too many deaths and not too many tens of thousands of children suffering from 'Long Covid' by the end of the year.

I've resigned myself to my kids getting Covid, probably some time before Christmas. Can't keep them out of school/nursery and my wife will be surrounded by unvaccinated teenagers at school as well so I'm left hoping they don't get too poorly, don't suffer longer-term symptoms and don't pass on infections to their grandparents. All the adults in the family are vaccinated, but we know protection wanes so the risk isn't negligible.

Hope is not a good way to deal with a respiratory pandemic when we know what needs to be done to stop the spread of the virus. We're not even trying any longer so I can only hope it doesn't get too bad over the winter.

I guess if kids keep refusing tests then in theory there won’t be a surge…I appreciate that doesn’t mean it isn’t there but nothing will be registered.

None of ours tested yesterday, a friend in another school said only 5 were bothered at his, a handful at another.

Just crack on, I’m sure there’s fill still worries, that’s their choice and right but equally, in the last month I’ve been many a place where people are clearly just wanting to get on with life and don’t seem unduly worried…people from all walks of life and ages etc…

It’s always gonna be a personal thing, in the last 18 months I haven’t been worried in the slightest about catching it nor worried about it at work. Professionally there are things which need my concerns much greater than Covid. People might argue against that but even this week, 2 days in and believe me, Covid is the least of my worries given some of the things that my kids have had to go through this summer…

The whole thing can talk itself round; some folk will find evidence to suggest its on its way out, others will find masses to say its still a big issue. Public opinion, certainly the places I’ve been and folk I’ve spoken to suggests people are just flipping fed up and the constant drivel and negativity in the media is just pushing folk away I guess.

For lots of people Covid is no longer a concern with work and the likes becoming the focus again. It’s there, they know that but it’s not…

And yet, the number of deaths continues to increase along with the number of hospital admissions. A jump in cases today but unlikely to be school related at this point in time. We'll have to wait a week or two to see what happens.

Looks like the government intend to press ahead with vaccinating our kids against medical advice!  Any surprise? Not really when you check out the school immunisation nurse vacancies! Many of these nurses are already on the payroll now with the death jab ready to go, and not one death under 20 due to Covid this year…. Not one😔

Once the older kids are out the way they will come for the under 10s then eventually babies! this may sound like BS but if you look into it then you will find that they’ve already started carrying out trials on babies. Another concern for me is the dosage, I didn’t realise but children would get the same dose as an adult just think for a minute an  18st 40 year old gets the same shot as a 6st 12 year old and even as we go down to the little ones the dosage rate does not change.

A number of people on social media have been raising concerns and questions to the amount of sudden deaths in young people, every day I seem to read about a young person who as died suddenly of heart attack, only yesterday closer to home I heard on Lincs FM a young footballer collapsed in an FA you match at Boston with a heart attack! I’m not saying there is any relation to the jab but these are question that need to be answered.

And yet now doctors are now advising against physical fitness after the jab-

https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/181660/doctors-advise-against-intensive-sport-after-covid-vaccination/

Oh well I’m sure we will be reassured that these cyclists where just a coincidence 🤔

October lockdown

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

Oct 2020:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002

But hold on-what did the Professor say again??

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/coronavirus-further-covid-lockdowns-in-uk-are-now-unlikely-says-neil-ferguson

Quoted from Maringer

Of course there will be a huge surge in infections now the kids are back at school! Why wouldn't there be?

The mitigations in place in schools last September have been all but removed now - no bubbles, no masking, isolation requirements removed or greatly reduced etc etc. All this with Delta now utterly dominant which is more than twice as infectious as the virus in circulation a year ago. The vaccine programme has been a success at reducing the number of deaths and serious illness, but only among those who are vaccinated. Which is not children. A tiny proportion of children have been vaccinated and therefore have no protection against infection. Prior infection with Covid provides a reasonable amount of protection against Delta, but a lot of children haven't been infected and have no protection. That is a lot of people just waiting to be infected. Not to mention their parents and grandparents who are still vulnerable to infection even if vaccinated (though not for severe illness as was the case last September).

If you can think of a single piece of evidence which shows why you don't think cases are going to rocket now the schools are back, then please post it. It will be interesting to see, that's for sure. Note, the studies released claiming Covid doesn't spread in schools were pretty terrible, not least because one was carried out before Alpha even emerged (~50% more infectious than previous variants), but also because the second was carried out during the earliest part of the Delta surge where no end of kids were off school isolating and therefore couldn't spread the virus, if they had it. Pretty much gaslighting the way that 'evidence' was pushed.

Regardless, even if the absolute risk to most children is low, we've still been seeing around 300 hospitalisations of children per week over the summer when they weren't mixing so the numbers of infections will rise in children, as will the numbers of hospitalisations and the paediatric ICU capacity is at full-stretch already. Breakthrough cases into older relatives who are still more likely to become seriously ill, even if vaccinated are going to be a major problem as well. The difference in absolute numbers between now and this point last year is ludicrous, somewhere over 25 times as many daily cases:

Tweet 1433521321439227906 will appear here...

Covid hospitalisations are currently about 8 times the level they were at this time last year and rising slowly, even before the impact of school reopening is felt. Ah, you say, but the number of deaths is lower. No, the daily number of deaths is 10 times higher than it was a year ago and also still rising. The politicians might claim that the link between infections and deaths has been broken, but it hasn't. What has occurred is that the vaccines and available treatments have reduced the ratio of deaths to infections. A good thing, but we're not exactly out of the woods yet. The current daily rate of deaths equates to about 40,000 deaths a year and that's before we enter the colder winter months - that's not much under twice the level of typical flu deaths each year. Those flu deaths mostly occur in the winter and we will see another flu season this winter, possibly worse than the last real one a couple of years ago. That will be addition to most Covid deaths.

It is pretty obvious to me that government policy is to actively get the virus spreading through schools as quickly as possible before the winter kicks in and the NHS is too busy to treat the children who require hospitalisation. This will lead to more immediate cases over the next couple of months than would have been the case if masking and other mitigations had continued. Let's hope it doesn't lead to too many deaths and not too many tens of thousands of children suffering from 'Long Covid' by the end of the year.

I've resigned myself to my kids getting Covid, probably some time before Christmas. Can't keep them out of school/nursery and my wife will be surrounded by unvaccinated teenagers at school as well so I'm left hoping they don't get too poorly, don't suffer longer-term symptoms and don't pass on infections to their grandparents. All the adults in the family are vaccinated, but we know protection wanes so the risk isn't negligible.

Hope is not a good way to deal with a respiratory pandemic when we know what needs to be done to stop the spread of the virus. We're not even trying any longer so I can only hope it doesn't get too bad over the winter.

I see your twitter expert is spreading fake news.




https://www.kxmx.com/post/ivermectin-overdose-not-an-issue-at-sallisaw-emergency-room-or-hospital

Quoted from Stadium

October lockdown

https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

Oct 2020:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002

But hold on-what did the Professor say again??

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/coronavirus-further-covid-lockdowns-in-uk-are-now-unlikely-says-neil-ferguson

Did u even read the article in the first link?

A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.

So exactly the same as what the professor predicted..

Anybody who smelt a rat with the recent MSN propaganda regarding the unsafe use of ivermectin, then you were correct and if you would like to know the real facts regarding this wonder drug then please follow the link - https://covid19criticalcare.com/

Quoted from Neilo83

Did u even read the article in the first link?

A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.

So exactly the same as what the professor predicted..

Yes thanks-did you?

The highlighted text isn't a direct quote from the "SAGE expert" but the journalists interpretation.


"The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told"

"Ferguson, who stepped back from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in May last year after a visit from his girlfriend that broke social distancing rules, but who remains on other government advisory committees, said it was “unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far”.

More scare tactics that folk will fall for…every year they go on about the nhs being under pressure in winter, only this year it’ll be Covid.

It’s extremely tiresome and to be honest, if I have to ring another set of parents and tell them school is shut again or we’ve got too many staff off I think they’ll understandably lose their excrement.

We just need to crack on. They’re going to introduce the pointless vaccine passports and people will happily go along with it even though they’ll serve zero purpose and people continue to buy in to this nonsense.

We’ve already entered the stage where either people are using Covid as an excuse not to go to work and then folk who won’t test, ignore tests etc Becauee they can’t afford not to go work or simply want to.

I admire folk who’ve got the time to dig out stats and data and trawl the internet for stuff to suggest lockdowns and vaccines are the way forward; many of us don’t. Many simply aren’t interested. I’ve seen more people with a smile on their face in the last 6 weeks than I have for a long time…that tells me the majority are wanting the same thing…

Quoted from Stadium

I see your twitter expert is spreading fake news.

Tweet 1434240379130454017 will appear here...

https://www.kxmx.com/post/ivermectin-overdose-not-an-issue-at-sallisaw-emergency-room-or-hospital

A 2-word tweet about an article published in a national newspaper is spreading fake news? Crikey, that's a very low bar for 'spreading fake news' from somebody promoting articles from the likes of the AIER!

Anyway, how about responding to the contents of my post instead? The numbers posted in the tweet by Dr. Robertson are readily available, the content of my post was very clear, so feel free to comment on that rather than just attempting to discredit the source.

As for the Ivermectin overdose article, I hadn't seen it before now. Not sure why the Doctor McElyea quoted in the article would make up stories about such overdoses. Perhaps he's encountered one or two cases and is on the verge of a nervous breakdown due to the stress of the surge hitting Oklahoma?

https://eu.oklahoman.com/story/news/2021/08/25/okc-covid-surge-overwhelms-icu-hospital-staff-nurses-doctors/8241772002/

I know there have been a few hundred cases of idiots overdosing with Ivermectin across the US (hence the CDC stuff the other week reminding people they aren't pigs or cows), but that shouldn't make much of a difference in a single state, especially as they are already overwhelmed with Covid cases to the extent that they are shipping patients out to other states to try and get them treatment. Just a similar situation to the idiots who overdosed on hydroxychloroquine last year, really. Oddly enough, both of these drugs with no evidence that they work at all, are promoted by anti-vaxxers/Covid-deniers. I'd imagine thousands of people will die from trusting these quack 'cures' in the US and elsewhere rather than trusting real scientific investigation. Before the vaccines and confirmed treatments were available, you could sort of understand it, but we're not in that place any longer.

Luckily, real science continues to do its thing and is discovering repurposed drugs such as baricitinib (normally used to treat rheumatoid arthritis) which can be used in conjunction with dexamethasone to save even more lives:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00358-1/fulltext

So, based on computer modelling which indicated the drug might be efficaceous, a randomised control trial was carried out which showed it certainly is and it will be saving lives around the world right now.

This is in comparison to Ivermectin where various meta-analyses of lots of different papers, many extremely flawed or lacking any sort of statistical power, have shown it was effective. However, these analyses all included the data from a study whose results were so dodgy that it skewed the numbers to make Ivermectin appear to be really effective when there is little true evidence it is at all effective.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02081-w

I notice that case numbers have started to ramp up now as expected following the return of kids to schools, mass gatherings etc etc. The good news is that deaths seem to have flattened out even as hospitalisations have continued to creep upwards. Still at too high a level, but it might be that we can keep the number of deaths at a flat rate, relatively high though that may be. We'll probably have to wait a few weeks to see if the surge in cases in younger people works its way up through to the older and more vulnerable members of the community as has been seen in previous waves.

Here's a good breakdown of the way things are going with ICU admissions in the NHS at present:

Quoted from Maringer

Here's a good breakdown of the way things are going with ICU admissions in the NHS at present:

Tweet 1434474981342261250 will appear here...

Genuine question, not a criticism at all, but doesn’t this level of delving in to Covid get a tad depressing? I know it’s all out there and relatively easy to access but doesn’t it just make you depressed?

I’m not saying ignoring it makes it go away but I, along with many gave up with following it months ago purely to remain relatively sane I’d guess…

Like I say, not a criticism, I’ve a friend who’s been equally obsessed with it and the figures from the start.

Quoted from Maringer

A 2-word tweet about an article published in a national newspaper is spreading fake news? Crikey, that's a very low bar for 'spreading fake news' from somebody promoting articles from the likes of the AIER!

Anyway, how about responding to the contents of my post instead? The numbers posted in the tweet by Dr. Robertson are readily available, the content of my post was very clear, so feel free to comment on that rather than just attempting to discredit the source.

As for the Ivermectin overdose article, I hadn't seen it before now. Not sure why the Doctor McElyea quoted in the article would make up stories about such overdoses. Perhaps he's encountered one or two cases and is on the verge of a nervous breakdown due to the stress of the surge hitting Oklahoma?

https://eu.oklahoman.com/story/news/2021/08/25/okc-covid-surge-overwhelms-icu-hospital-staff-nurses-doctors/8241772002/

I know there have been a few hundred cases of idiots overdosing with Ivermectin across the US (hence the CDC stuff the other week reminding people they aren't pigs or cows), but that shouldn't make much of a difference in a single state, especially as they are already overwhelmed with Covid cases to the extent that they are shipping patients out to other states to try and get them treatment. Just a similar situation to the idiots who overdosed on hydroxychloroquine last year, really. Oddly enough, both of these drugs with no evidence that they work at all, are promoted by anti-vaxxers/Covid-deniers. I'd imagine thousands of people will die from trusting these quack 'cures' in the US and elsewhere rather than trusting real scientific investigation. Before the vaccines and confirmed treatments were available, you could sort of understand it, but we're not in that place any longer.

Luckily, real science continues to do its thing and is discovering repurposed drugs such as baricitinib (normally used to treat rheumatoid arthritis) which can be used in conjunction with dexamethasone to save even more lives:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00358-1/fulltext

So, based on computer modelling which indicated the drug might be efficaceous, a randomised control trial was carried out which showed it certainly is and it will be saving lives around the world right now.

This is in comparison to Ivermectin where various meta-analyses of lots of different papers, many extremely flawed or lacking any sort of statistical power, have shown it was effective. However, these analyses all included the data from a study whose results were so dodgy that it skewed the numbers to make Ivermectin appear to be really effective when there is little true evidence it is at all effective.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02081-w

I notice that case numbers have started to ramp up now as expected following the return of kids to schools, mass gatherings etc etc. The good news is that deaths seem to have flattened out even as hospitalisations have continued to creep upwards. Still at too high a level, but it might be that we can keep the number of deaths at a flat rate, relatively high though that may be. We'll probably have to wait a few weeks to see if the surge in cases in younger people works its way up through to the older and more vulnerable members of the community as has been seen in previous waves.

Its plain to see the article was pure fiction as per the hospital statement.

Northeastern Health System in Sequoyah said in a statement posted on Facebook later on Saturday that Dr McElyea was not an employee but was affiliated with a medical staffing group that provided coverage for its emergency room.

NHS Sequoyah had not treated any patients due to complications related to taking ivermectin, including overdose, the statement said.

So yes, a tweet linking to a article which was fake news.

https://reason.com/2021/09/06/ivermectin-overdoses-oklahoma-hospitals-rolling-stone-hoax/

Quoted from aldi_01

Genuine question, not a criticism at all, but doesn’t this level of delving in to Covid get a tad depressing? I know it’s all out there and relatively easy to access but doesn’t it just make you depressed?

I’m not saying ignoring it makes it go away but I, along with many gave up with following it months ago purely to remain relatively sane I’d guess…

Like I say, not a criticism, I’ve a friend who’s been equally obsessed with it and the figures from the start.

Nah, not really. I like to know what is going on. I've learned all sorts of interesting stuff on the way (forgotten half of it as well), but there is only so much shite you can watch on telly so a bit of time now and then delving into the science and numbers isn't going to hurt. I probably should have read a few more books instead, but there you go.

I am extremely frustrated by the idiocy of our government, however. They've got pretty much everything wrong from the first and now it seems that even bodies such as PHE and the JCVI (whose decision to spread the spacing of the vaccines was an excellent one) are making foolish choices not based on the available data which will needlessly impact the health of tens of thousands of children. I'm not talking about lockdowns, just the lack of mitigations in schools and vaccinating kids to reduce their risks. The fact that I have been very careful to do my best to look after my family and the health of my children for 18 months, only for the authorities to basically say, "intercourse it, let's get all the kids get infected ASAP" is just shocking. The way in which public health bodies have become so blase in the face of all the evidence to the contrary is mind-boggling. I think I've already mentioned that I can only imagine that their modelling indicates that trying to stop infection spreading through schools would have led to a big peak of deaths during the winter, so they are actively trying to get as many kids infected as possible whilst gaslighting the public into thinking all is well. Did you know that a freedom of information request to see the advice which led to the dropping of masking in schools during May was recently rejected (or some information was omitted) as it 'wasn't in the national interest'. What can't be in the national interest about transparency regarding the health and wellbeing of our children? Crazy stuff.

Quoted from Stadium

Its plain to see the article was pure fiction as per the hospital statement.

Northeastern Health System in Sequoyah said in a statement posted on Facebook later on Saturday that Dr McElyea was not an employee but was affiliated with a medical staffing group that provided coverage for its emergency room.

NHS Sequoyah had not treated any patients due to complications related to taking ivermectin, including overdose, the statement said.

So yes, a tweet linking to a article which was fake news.

https://reason.com/2021/09/06/ivermectin-overdoses-oklahoma-hospitals-rolling-stone-hoax/

*Shrugs*

Well, it all comes down to the false report from this Dr McElyea, then, doesn't it? Understandable that the media might believe the statements to be true given the way in which Oklahoma is being battered by Covid at present, but they should perhaps have sought out a second source. Plenty of disinformation reported by the media from Doctors pushing the Covid-sceptical and anti-vaxx viewpoints as well, and they should certainly be fact-checked before publication as well.

Anyway, back on topic. What about the contents of my post, (which includes Dr Robertson's tweet reporting publicly-available data)?

For reference, current 7 day average is about 15 times the number of cases as at this point last year. Daily deaths averaging 11 times the level of last year. Don't have the numbers of hospital admissions available at present.

Quoted from Maringer

*Shrugs*

Well, it all comes down to the false report from this Dr McElyea, then, doesn't it? Understandable that the media might believe the statements to be true given the way in which Oklahoma is being battered by Covid at present, but they should perhaps have sought out a second source. Plenty of disinformation reported by the media from Doctors pushing the Covid-sceptical and anti-vaxx viewpoints as well, and they should certainly be fact-checked before publication as well.

Anyway, back on topic. What about the contents of my post, (which includes Dr Robertson's tweet reporting publicly-available data)?

For reference, current 7 day average is about 15 times the number of cases as at this point last year. Daily deaths averaging 11 times the level of last year. Don't have the numbers of hospital admissions available at present.

Agree it should have been fact checked as quickly as all the disinformation that surrounds the vaccine and covid.
Isn't it strange it is still posted without correction ??

As for the data I don't think anybody is questioning it but as another poster said, people are just looking for a return to a sort of normal.
The government seem to be advising against the scientists but then you've criticised the science bodies.

*Shrugs*
No wonder people aren't particularly bothered.

This guy Maringer is a doom merchant who has spent the past 18 months living in fear, and if it were up to him we’d all still be in lockdown. And now he can’t wait to get the kiddies vaccinated which is Ironic because so far he’s alway parroted the Government scientific advisors, but this time they don’t agree with the government, so he’s obviously totally torn but decided to attack the scientists anyway for wait for it….not following the science! He’s already banged on about the over 16s having the right to consent to the vaccine because they join the army etc, But now his logic will have to change on consenting 12 year olds.

And now he’s once again towing the Government line by playing down the life saving benefits of ivermectin, just for clarity Maringer a few hundred cases? Animal ivermectin or human ivermectin? I’m sure you have the data on this????
So all the doctors and scientists around the world are part of a conspiracy to promote ivermectin because they are anti vaxers/Covid deniers? Do you even realise how stupid your comments are?

**Look up Dr Andrew Hill a was recruited by the WHO to carry out a meta analysis on the effect of Ivermectin early on during the pandemic and his conclusion was that ivermectin was an effective treatment stating a 1in 7000 chance he was wrong! But the WHO didn’t like it and decided to change the conclusion before he changed it back**

The doctors I listen to from the FLAAA are fully certified with decades of experience not only that they are actually working on the front line treating yes actual Covid patients. And yes they fully endorse the use of ivermectin for all because it works, but you don’t have to take their words for it check out the evidence it is overwhelming 60 clinical trials of which 30 are randomised controlled trials, there is probably more Data on ivermectin then any other Covid treatment. All the randomised trials have one thing in common a decrease in hospitalisation, a decrease in mortality and an increase in improvement time.

3.7 billion humans have been treated with ivermectin I accept not for Covid but I want to highlight its safety record because it’s basically one of the safest medications ever made, safer than aspirin. On the WHO website they will list all drugs and effects and In 25 years it shows 16 deaths and 400 adverse reactions, ( deaths probably due to the late stage administration to late to overcome the parasite) then we have the vaccines only 6months of data on there so far 9000 deaths 1.7M reactions!

The only problem With ivermectin is you can’t make money from it!! the pills cost penny’s, compare this to Remdesivir for example which the NHS has purchased recently and costs a couple of grand per treatment and yet has NO effect on hospitalisation or mortality even the WHO have declared no impact on survival ….FOLLOW THE MONEY.

Maringer has had to scrape the barrel to find a negative ivermectin study by researchers from Egypt, this was clearly biased and overstated yes, but then most trials are so we more need meta analysis -
https://ivmmeta.com/ check out the data quite compelling in fact overwhelming it works!
I’m surprised he missed the Brazilian Together trial that didn’t find significant benefits? But then dig deep and you find the participants were under dosing with ivermectin whilst treating the Gamma variant which makes Delta look like a runny nose. I read about other study’s that dose according to manufacturers ie take at least 1 hour before food (I made this mistake) to treat Covid as it needs to be taken with food!

Another thing people fail to understand is the fact ivermectin is promoted by these experts to be used vaccinated as well as unvaccinated equally, check out Oscar De Le Hoy probably in the top 5% of the fittest men on the planet double jabbed and now in hospital with Covid. And I think what is the current protocol 1. You get the jabs ok. 2. You then start getting symptoms 3. You stay at home until you are blue and can’t breath 4. Now you can go to hospital .. am I right?

Why can’t we have the option to take this drug at the start of symptoms? We know it’s totally safe and will reduce the inflammation fast and would of kept people like Oscar out of hospital, because come winter we will have many going blue and out of breath but there maybe won’t be any beds because they’ll be full. But it won’t happen because it’s all about the vaccines that’s the party line.
Even something as cheap as vitamin D which has been linked with reducing hospital admissions doesn’t even get mentioned! Next time you go see your GP ask him/her what vitamins do they take, they will tell you vitamin D…. Come back and tell me if I’m wrong.


** Dr Hill’s meta analysis-

https://www.icpcovid.com/sites/default/files/2021-02/Ep%20108-32%20%20Dr%20Andrew%20Hill%20Ivermectin%20Meta%20Analysis.pdf

Quoted from Stadium

Agree it should have been fact checked as quickly as all the disinformation that surrounds the vaccine and covid.
Isn't it strange it is still posted without correction ??

As for the data I don't think anybody is questioning it but as another poster said, people are just looking for a return to a sort of normal.
The government seem to be advising against the scientists but then you've criticised the science bodies.

*Shrugs*
No wonder people aren't particularly bothered.

Hmmm. Well, the right-wing press in the UK has been printing misleading and inaccurate editorials and opinion pieces for some time without correcting them, so perhaps understandable that the Guardian has done the same. Make a complaint and they'd possibly update the article. Wouldn't be likely the article would be updated for any other reason, as it's old news now and the journalist who wrote it will have moved on.

Anyway, a worrying turn in today's numbers:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The 7 day average for cases is up 14% (which is expected given the return to schooling a week ago and the expected increase in cases in children), but the 7 day average for deaths is now up 40% over the past week. We're now at a level equivalent to 50,000 deaths a year. Most of those who have died will have been infected around mid-August when rates were still declining so hopefully the number will drop and then not begin to rise to the same levels again as cases increase with the return to school. Not particularly confident about this, however.

The fact that unnamed government/SAGE sources have been floating the idea about a potential October firebreak lockdown in the media indicates they aren't too confident about what is coming at present.

At what level do they decide restrictions will need to be brought in? 400 deaths a day, 500? The sensible thing to do would be to reintroduce masking right now to reduce the risk of a lockdown being required, but the optics don't work well with the narrative they've been pushing for so long. They U-turned so many times during the course of the pandemic, it was pretty ridiculous, but they are studiously trying to avoid it after claiming the vaccination programme has solved all problems.

On another note, the fact that we've managed to fully vaccinate so many aged 16+ so quickly is a really good achievement. Just a pity that we've not vaccinated those aged 12 and above like most of our peers. No coincidence that the countries who have done so have a fraction of the number of cases that we do at present. The US the obvious outlier in this due to their politically-motivated idiocy which means they've got many tens of millions of vulnerable people believing the anti-vaxx, Covid-denialist bullshite and therefore dying in large numbers.

Haven’t they proven that comparing countries is now not necessarily a worthwhile thing given other countries aren’t as obsessed with testing like we are?

The obsession with vaccinating the over 12s is worrying too, we’ve been told to follow the science, whatever that means because all I’ve seen in the last 18 months is some saying one thing, some saying another and then when anyone’s seemingly queried or challenged the vaccine rollout or the dangers of Covid they’ve been ignored or shot down as a tin hat wearer. Similarly, experts have questioned the need to vaccinate the over 12s and there’s a case that it’s a risk yet here we are again, science tells us one thing but government, and now those who have believed in the science have chosen to ignore it.

Covid has been the ultimate distraction for the last 18months whilst an incompetent government and it’s chums have lined their pockets, passed through alarming statutory policy and now the social care reforms.

The fact we haven’t seen the public out in force protesting about the gross sums of money handed to mates of government officials or the fact the vaccine rollout has simply made people more money…and surprise surprise, a booster jab is allegedly required, making even more cash is just a classic example of how passive the country has become.

They talk of anti vaccine rhetoric on social media and the likes but to be honest, I’ve seen more scare tactics and false news about Covid numbers, so called lockdowns and such shite being swallowed than anything else.

I couldn’t tell you the numbers of people that have allegedly had Covid, the number that have died nor know how to test or even how to book one, and I simply don’t care anymore. I haven’t the head space nor the inclination to worry, professionally there are far more important things for me to deal with and personally I just don’t have the effort or desire. I’ve a life to lead, I am concerned about the way the rich are allowed to get richer, that government ministers have been allowed to make monumental intercourse ups after duck ups without so much as a sorry and the draconian rules that will be imposed, ridiculous vaccine passports being one. These things concern me more than any set of numbers…

If they stopped putting it on the news and in the papers, stopped being obsessed with the numbers we all know deep down that within a couple of weeks the only ones left talking about it would be the worriers, the ones petrified or the ones that just enjoy flipping about with figures…

Turn off your TVs and stop watching the news chaps. This has clearly become an obsession to some, we have one shot at life, enjoy it and stop worrying about things that we can’t do anything about.

I stopped watching tv 2 years ago Neilo, I stopped reading papers 6 years ago, I’ve never been so happy mate.😊

Quoted from aldi_01

If they stopped putting it on the news and in the papers, stopped being obsessed with the numbers we all know deep down that within a couple of weeks the only ones left talking about it would be the worriers, the ones petrified or the ones that just enjoy flipping about with figures…

Oh, and the hospitals. Don't forget them.

My brother in law was advised to attend A&E last night after feeling unwell (turned out to be nothing too serious, thankfully) and it was one in and one out as the place was absolutely full. He was waiting for 7 hours to be seen. That's the situation in Grimsby right now.

Quoted from Maringer

Oh, and the hospitals. Don't forget them.

My brother in law was advised to attend A&E last night after feeling unwell (turned out to be nothing too serious, thankfully) and it was one in and one out as the place was absolutely full. He was waiting for 7 hours to be seen. That's the situation in Grimsby right now.

Your shocked about a 7 hour wait in A&E? They were through the roof well before Covid came along…

A&E waits were very bad before Covid. Now they are even worse. And will continue to get worse if cases keep rising as they are. Ultimately, I think you're just being a bit blase about the ongoing problems caused by the pandemic.

The vaccination programme has done the job of saving lots and lots of lives, but there is still the risk of things getting bad enough that the NHS falls over this winter. Let's not forget that the NHS staff have been under immense pressure for the last 18 months. A bad winter could end up being more than they can deal with. Still, at least they've got a tax rise coming up to look forward to. That'll cheer them up.

Quoted from Maringer

A&E waits were very bad before Covid. Now they are even worse. And will continue to get worse if cases keep rising as they are. Ultimately, I think you're just being a bit blase about the ongoing problems caused by the pandemic.

The vaccination programme has done the job of saving lots and lots of lives, but there is still the risk of things getting bad enough that the NHS falls over this winter. Let's not forget that the NHS staff have been under immense pressure for the last 18 months. A bad winter could end up being more than they can deal with. Still, at least they've got a tax rise coming up to look forward to. That'll cheer them up.

Blasé or just fed up? Blasé or just recognising that there are other things happening which are actually having a bigger impact on lives than Covid?

We go through this on the news every autumn, that hospitals will be rammed full of folk with flu, how will the NHS cope and so on…perhaps the 350m a week Boris and his isolationist, moronic chums said it would get May be a start…

All about perceptions too I guess, spent a significant amount of time in hospital not that long ago, not for me but for my new born, not a local hospital; the news in the area of the hospital was suggesting they were stacked out and at breaking point…the amazing nurses on the other hand said it was no different to any other time…

It’s just become an obsession in some respects, someone at work sneezed and said they had a ropey throat yesterday…people couldn’t move away fast enough…the effects of a Benadryl kick in and surprise surprise, it was just hay fever…

It can’t be helpful to folk living in this state of paranoia…I watched a bloke cough in Tesco, nothing more, simple cough, a woman who would fall in to the least likely to be affected category literally turned her trolley the other way in fear…it’s flipping bizarre…

Meanwhile, people are gonna get copulated over again by another Tory lie and failed manifesto pledge with a tax/NI hike but everyone’s worried about Covid…classic Tory, sneak that through and whilst the public are shutting themselves Becauee of the fear and hysteria created…

Our racist, moronic education Secretary will no doubt get away Scott free too, just like Raab, Hancock, Johnson, Patel, Cummings and so forth…what a life saver Covid has been to these fucktards…

Quoted from aldi_01

Blasé or just fed up? Blasé or just recognising that there are other things happening which are actually having a bigger impact on lives than Covid?

We go through this on the news every autumn, that hospitals will be rammed full of folk with flu, how will the NHS cope and so on…perhaps the 350m a week Boris and his isolationist, moronic chums said it would get May be a start…

All about perceptions too I guess, spent a significant amount of time in hospital not that long ago, not for me but for my new born, not a local hospital; the news in the area of the hospital was suggesting they were stacked out and at breaking point…the amazing nurses on the other hand said it was no different to any other time…

It’s just become an obsession in some respects, someone at work sneezed and said they had a ropey throat yesterday…people couldn’t move away fast enough…the effects of a Benadryl kick in and surprise surprise, it was just hay fever…

It can’t be helpful to folk living in this state of paranoia…I watched a bloke cough in Tesco, nothing more, simple cough, a woman who would fall in to the least likely to be affected category literally turned her trolley the other way in fear…it’s flipping bizarre…

Meanwhile, people are gonna get copulated over again by another Tory lie and failed manifesto pledge with a tax/NI hike but everyone’s worried about Covid…classic Tory, sneak that through and whilst the public are shutting themselves Becauee of the fear and hysteria created…

Our racist, moronic education Secretary will no doubt get away Scott free too, just like Raab, Hancock, Johnson, Patel, Cummings and so forth…what a life saver Covid has been to these fucktards…

Scratch the surface and see what's underneath! ;)

Quoted from aldi_01

Blasé or just fed up? Blasé or just recognising that there are other things happening which are actually having a bigger impact on lives than Covid?

We go through this on the news every autumn, that hospitals will be rammed full of folk with flu, how will the NHS cope and so on…perhaps the 350m a week Boris and his isolationist, moronic chums said it would get May be a start…

All about perceptions too I guess, spent a significant amount of time in hospital not that long ago, not for me but for my new born, not a local hospital; the news in the area of the hospital was suggesting they were stacked out and at breaking point…the amazing nurses on the other hand said it was no different to any other time…

It’s just become an obsession in some respects, someone at work sneezed and said they had a ropey throat yesterday…people couldn’t move away fast enough…the effects of a Benadryl kick in and surprise surprise, it was just hay fever…

It can’t be helpful to folk living in this state of paranoia…I watched a bloke cough in Tesco, nothing more, simple cough, a woman who would fall in to the least likely to be affected category literally turned her trolley the other way in fear…it’s flipping bizarre…

Meanwhile, people are gonna get copulated over again by another Tory lie and failed manifesto pledge with a tax/NI hike but everyone’s worried about Covid…classic Tory, sneak that through and whilst the public are shutting themselves Becauee of the fear and hysteria created…

Our racist, moronic education Secretary will no doubt get away Scott free too, just like Raab, Hancock, Johnson, Patel, Cummings and so forth…what a life saver Covid has been to these fucktards…

Agree with most of this bet get over yourself with the racist crap! Moronic yes👍

Vaccine passports scrapped.
Add to the list of u turns.
In this case a good decision.


U turned again today, no surprise

Quoted from Maringer

Hmmm. Well, the right-wing press in the UK has been printing misleading and inaccurate editorials and opinion pieces for some time without correcting them, so perhaps understandable that the Guardian has done the same. Make a complaint and they'd possibly update the article. Wouldn't be likely the article would be updated for any other reason, as it's old news now and the journalist who wrote it will have moved on.

Anyway, a worrying turn in today's numbers:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The 7 day average for cases is up 14% (which is expected given the return to schooling a week ago and the expected increase in cases in children), but the 7 day average for deaths is now up 40% over the past week. We're now at a level equivalent to 50,000 deaths a year. Most of those who have died will have been infected around mid-August when rates were still declining so hopefully the number will drop and then not begin to rise to the same levels again as cases increase with the return to school. Not particularly confident about this, however.

The fact that unnamed government/SAGE sources have been floating the idea about a potential October firebreak lockdown in the media indicates they aren't too confident about what is coming at present.

At what level do they decide restrictions will need to be brought in? 400 deaths a day, 500? The sensible thing to do would be to reintroduce masking right now to reduce the risk of a lockdown being required, but the optics don't work well with the narrative they've been pushing for so long. They U-turned so many times during the course of the pandemic, it was pretty ridiculous, but they are studiously trying to avoid it after claiming the vaccination programme has solved all problems.

On another note, the fact that we've managed to fully vaccinate so many aged 16+ so quickly is a really good achievement. Just a pity that we've not vaccinated those aged 12 and above like most of our peers. No coincidence that the countries who have done so have a fraction of the number of cases that we do at present. The US the obvious outlier in this due to their politically-motivated idiocy which means they've got many tens of millions of vulnerable people believing the anti-vaxx, Covid-denialist bullshite and therefore dying in large numbers.

What are your thoughts on the report below? :

https://www.hartgroup.org/recent-deaths-in-young-people-in-england-and-wales/

The period also coincides with the rollout of vaccination. Finally, ONS have reported on a striking rise in age adjusted mortality rates in those with only one dose that accelerated in May 2021 to levels far exceeding those in the unvaccinated.

Heard a report but not sure if it was cases/deaths or both but we are higher now than the last 3 months on last year😳
Don’t forget to get your boosters so we can get back to normality 😬

Well yeah, because we’ve just had six months with no restrictions at all. As opposed to still having lots of restrictions in place and a lockdown last November. The deaths are significantly lower than the start of the year and that’s without social distancing, the cases are also no higher than then either. The vaccines aren’t going to be a cure on their own, that much is obvious. But there’s plenty of evidence that they have lessened the amount of deaths and hospitalisations. And of course, there are sadly some who have had bad reactions but they are few fewer in number than those with long covid or who died.

Surely we have to take the numbers with a pinch of salt too…

Aren’t they now counting any deaths of someone who’s tested positive in the last 28 days in the death numbers?

Test positive on Monday, get run over on Thursday, Covid death…

Quoted from mariner91

Well yeah, because we’ve just had six months with no restrictions at all. As opposed to still having lots of restrictions in place and a lockdown last November. The deaths are significantly lower than the start of the year and that’s without social distancing, the cases are also no higher than then either. The vaccines aren’t going to be a cure on their own, that much is obvious. But there’s plenty of evidence that they have lessened the amount of deaths and hospitalisations. And of course, there are sadly some who have had bad reactions but they are few fewer in number than those with long covid or who died.

Im talking specifically July to mid sept this year than last year.  Most adults were double jabbed by July. Why would deaths be worse than last year?

Quoted from Stadium

[/b]

What are your thoughts on the report below? :

https://www.hartgroup.org/recent-deaths-in-young-people-in-england-and-wales/

The period also coincides with the rollout of vaccination. Finally, ONS have reported on a striking rise in age adjusted mortality rates in those with only one dose that accelerated in May 2021 to levels far exceeding those in the unvaccinated.

It's from the Hart Group. Anti-vaxxers who have been deliberately telling lies and spreading misinformation and other bullshit for well over a year now. I don't even need to read it to know it is quasi-scientific bullshit. Haven't you seen all the reports about the leaked internal chat logs from the Hart Group? I'm sure I've posted snippets of them. Here's a brief mention of the logs and where they were collected:

https://www.logically.ai/articles/hart-files-anti-vaccine-myths-westminster

A number of people on twitter have gone through the logs and posted some pretty damning stuff from them. In fact, most of the Hart Group appear to be absolute flipping nutjobs.

A very quick glance shows them pushing the myocarditis angle (of course). The risks of mild myocarditis from vaccines is known and pretty rare. Not sure there have been any deaths reported from vaccine-induced myocarditis and the vast majority of people diagnosed with it don't require more than minor treatment - perhaps a day or two in hospital. What isn't mentioned is the much, much higher prevalence of myocarditis from infection with Covid. Funny that, isn't it?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more-common-after-covid-19-infection-than-vaccination/

I can't believe some people are daft enough to still be banging on about the risks of vaccination compared to infection. Well, people who don't suck up the bullshit from the likes of the Hart Group.

Literally billions of doses of vaccine have now been given (somewhere in the region of 7 billion doses, I think). If there really was some sort of a massive risk profile from vaccines in young or old, there would be ample evidence available to show it. Guess what? There isn't.

Quoted from Humbercod

Im talking specifically July to mid sept this year than last year.  Most adults were double jabbed by July. Why would deaths be worse than last year?

Ah okay, my mistake and I've misunderstood. My apologies. Well last year at that time we'd just come off the back of a big lockdown where schools weren't going at all, people weren't going on holiday as much (home or abroad) and the level of infection had got to such a low level from the stringent social distancing that it took a while for the case numbers to get back up again. We'd not had any big spreader events like the Euros either. If I recall correctly the infection numbers were in the low hundreds at that point so it stands to reason that deaths were also very low. But as the circumstances for the two periods are so completely different, you can't really draw a comparison that's fair. A more appropriate but still vague comparison would be December-March of the last two months when infection rates were similar but deaths are now much lower.

More important is that the variants around back last autumn were nothing like as infectious as Delta. Alpha was much more infectious than the earlier strains, Delta much more infectious again. Therefore in the region of 2.5 times as infectious as the version which emerged from China in early 2020.

For all intents and purposes, this is a different disease. The mitigations which worked to suppress the spread in 2020 simply don't work with Delta which is how Australia and New Zealand have eventually developed outbreaks after months without any. This isn't to say that you can't suppress it as a number of countries have managed this - Denmark, Singapore and others, for example. However, they are carrying out strong public health measures alongside vaccination. We're deliberately letting it spread through schools (and therefore out into the community). Absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is the plan given the messaging from the government and their stooges in the media.

The gamble is that children will develop immunity which will help shut down the pandemic. However, there is already plenty of evidence that many children shrug it off without developing much of an immune response. Does this mean that they still have protection in the future? Remains to be seen but, if not, they'll keep recycling the virus back into the community throughout the winter.

Doing nothing now makes future lockdowns more likely. If you're not willing to do something as simple as putting on a mask when indoors in public settings to help avoid the risk to the NHS, you're a twit, as far as in concerned. Standing on your doorstep applauding ithr NHS was nothing but 'virtue signalling'. Anybody who did that last year but now won't mask up in shops and on public transport should take a serious look at themselves.

I don’t know how he sleeps at night with all this worry! If more restrictions are so much needed then how do you explain Sweden? They got rid of all there restrictions people now just getting on with their lives without fear of government mandates and guess what the infection and death rates remain low! Denmark seeing rates drop since getting rid of there restrictions a few weeks ago.
Restriction free Florida now has the lowest rates per capita in the Country and closer to home remember Wales and Scotland? when we came out of lockdown and they remained there rates went up!

But the intentions are good!
Its just a mask
It’s just 1 injection
It’s just 2 injections
It’s just a booster
It’s just another booster
It’s just another lockdown
It’s just a mandate
It’s just a vaccine passport
It’s just so we can track your movements
It’s just so you can exist
It’s just so we can get back to normal😂

The road to hell is paved with good intentions!

Quoted from Humbercod

I don’t know how he sleeps at night with all this worry! If more restrictions are so much needed then how do you explain Sweden? They got rid of all there restrictions people now just getting on with their lives without fear of government mandates and guess what the infection and death rates remain low! Denmark seeing rates drop since getting rid of there restrictions a few weeks ago.
Restriction free Florida now has the lowest rates per capita in the Country and closer to home remember Wales and Scotland? when came out of lockdown and they remained there rates went up!

But the intentions are good!
Its just a mask
It’s just 1 injection
It’s just 2 injections
It’s just a booster
It’s just another booster
It’s just another lockdown
It’s just a mandate
It’s just a vaccine passport
It’s just so we can track your movements
It’s just so you can exist
It’s just so we can get back to normal😂

The road to hell is paved with good intentions!

Better turn to Jesus Christ who has good intentions for you. :) :) :)

Quoted from DB

Better turn to Jesus Christ who has good intentions for you. :) :) :)

And for everybody else. ;) ;)

Quoted from Humbercod

Restriction free Florida now has the lowest rates per capita in the Country and closer to home remember Wales and Scotland? when we came out of lockdown and they remained there rates went up!

Climate, outdoor lifestyle and one of the higher vaccination rates in the US will have played a part. It has an elderly population so presumably they are more likely to be jabbed than the whippersnappers in Wisconsin.

Several news outlets are reporting that scientists expect covid cases to drop significantly in the next few weeks after studying the latest mapping of the disease.

Quoted from ginnywings

Several news outlets are reporting that scientists expect covid cases to drop significantly in the next few weeks after studying the latest mapping of the disease.

Unlikely, but possible, I suppose. Half-term arriving (as well as hundreds of thousands of kids off school with Covid) at the same time that the testing balls-up at Immensa has been detected and stopped will probably have an effect as might perhaps increasing natural immunity amongst children from the massive numbers of them becoming infected. Not sure the thousands who are likely to be left with long-term illness will be too happy with that, but tough luck for them, as the government might say, if it was at all honest.

Much of it avoidable, if we didn't have a government run by incompetent cretins.



I'm guessing the expectations about cases possibly dropping are based on the apparent dip in infections in kids as shown in the charts above. The cases in adults will probably follow suit if there is a real fall.

20% of English kids aged 12 to 15 have now had a dose of vaccine. More than half of Scottish kids the same age have had a dose because the Jocks have taken it seriously. If we'd taken it seriously in the summer (as did most of our European peers), we'd quite possibly have avoided much of this most recent surge.

“Unlikely but possibly”….talk about edging your bets ⬆️

I noticed yesterday the official case numbers had significantly dropped week on week! Just a hunch but anything to do with the schools breaking up? Where children are being zealously tested in the schools and colleges.

Maybe if we stop testing heathy asymptotic children as well as adults there is a fair old chance cases will fall.

I don’t know how to get the graphs on here but if you check out 7 day rolling deaths on - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&region=Europe&country=SWE~NOR~DNK
It shows what happens when you get rid of mandates and fear! Norway,Sweden, and Denmark removed all Covid restrictions and mask mandates. They also said no to vaccine passports!

Another graph here showing cases - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~ITA~IND~DNK~NOR~UGA~SWE

But guess which country is over testing heathy asymptotic people?
Load of bollox!

Quoted from Humbercod

“Unlikely but possibly”….talk about edging your bets ⬆️

I noticed yesterday the official case numbers had significantly dropped week on week! Just a hunch but anything to do with the schools breaking up? Where children are being zealously tested in the schools and colleges.

Maybe if we stop testing heathy asymptotic children as well as adults there is a fair old chance cases will fall.

I don’t know how to get the graphs on here but if you check out 7 day rolling deaths on - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day?tab=chart&region=Europe&country=SWE~NOR~DNK
It shows what happens when you get rid of mandates and fear! Norway,Sweden, and Denmark removed all Covid restrictions and mask mandates. They also said no to vaccine passports!

Yes quite possibly but not for the reason you've suggested. If kids aren't in a classroom with 30+ kids all day, 5 days a week then they are less likely to spread it to each other.

That doesn't mean I want the schools closed, far from it. Just an observation that schools and the fact kids will not socially distance at all have been the breeding ground for the most recent surge in cases.

I've still got HC blocked so only see his messages when people quote them. Needless to say, he's still pumping out the brainless denial.

Norway, Sweden and Denmark removed all Covid restrictions and mask mandates, when their infection rates were extremely low, unlike the UK which removed restrictions and mandates, when our infection rates were ridiculously, embarrassingly high. Because they aren't governed by halfwits with an agenda.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/94965

It will be interesting to see if any restrictions will need to be reintroduced in those countries over the cold winter months. Denmark and Norway are doing better with their vaccination programme than us, the Swedes about the same. They also have stronger social support systems and working from home is an option for more people than in the UK. Might make a big difference, although starting from a much, much lower level in the first place allows proper public health measures such as tracking cases to take place. Something we've never really bothered with seriously, despite all the money spent.

Quoted from Maringer

I've still got HC blocked so only see his messages when people quote them. Needless to say, he's still pumping out the brainless denial.

Norway, Sweden and Denmark removed all Covid restrictions and mask mandates, when their infection rates were extremely low, unlike the UK which removed restrictions and mandates, when our infection rates were ridiculously, embarrassingly high. Because they aren't governed by halfwits with an agenda.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/94965

It will be interesting to see if any restrictions will need to be reintroduced in those countries over the cold winter months. Denmark and Norway are doing better with their vaccination programme than us, the Swedes about the same. They also have stronger social support systems and working from home is an option for more people than in the UK. Might make a big difference, although starting from a much, much lower level in the first place allows proper public health measures such as tracking cases to take place. Something we've never really bothered with seriously, despite all the money spent.

I’m not being funny but If you’ve blocked me how the hell do you know it’s me posting?
Stop being silly anyway just ignore me rather than pretend you’re not reading my posts! I’m not on here just to argue with you, but I can be more than civil if you can. I think we’re as far opposite on the political spectrum as possible but I don’t hold that against you😀

I don’t know why you get so upset with my opinion’s it’s really nothing personal, you also have me down as some conspiracy nutcase because you follow the government science and I don’t…Thanks!

Yet it was only a few week back the Government were dammed in a cross party report for wait for it ……following the wrong science😂

Come on Maringer I’m big enough to admit you’re a good contributor on this site even though I do disagree with a lot of stuff you post. Just agree to disagree and move on life is to short, the world can be a painful place at times, but it’s also a place of great beauty when it’s good to be alive especially when our team is top of the league.

Looks like serious backpedaling there Humbo. Maringer got you on the facts.

By the way, are you still dodging the vaccine? Still scared that the nasty scientists are lying that it’s less risky than the virus? To you and the rest of society.

Fūck sake man. It’s not like you’re expected to go over the top to face the Hun.

My wife has had her booster, mine is due in 12 days. Flu jabs are done and topped up with a lifelong pneumonical jab.

I think it's better to be vaccinated than not. Why take chances when you don't have to, as they say prevention is best.

Notable that the Dutch and Belgians have reintroduced their masking and distancing requirements again as cases have increased with winter incoming. When the politicians have completely finished doing their PR stuff at COP26, it wouldn't surprise me if masking was eventually brought back as a requirement in the UK as well. A lot depends on whether or not the case rate racks up again after dipping during half-term. The number of deaths is increasing due to the high rates a couple of weeks ago. The booster programme is going much too slowly because the government haven't taken it seriously enough so that's the most important thing to protect the elderly and vulnerable now. It really needs to be ramped up quickly.

On another note, the (eventual) release of the JCVI minutes containing their discussion of whether or not to vaccinate kids shows that they were basically recycling the arguments of the anti-vaxxers and suggesting that children becoming infected might not be such a bad thing:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/02/jcvi-failed-back-youth-covid-jabs-despite-favourable-models

The fact that the public health authorities of pretty much every other developed country on the planet are taking the opposite approach and doing their best to avoid children becoming infected is probably a decent indication as to the logic behind this 'plan'.

If the refusal to release the advice regarding the removal of masking and all other mitigations from schools and no attempt to increase ventilation and filtration as recommended wasn't enough for you, this ought to remove any doubt that official government policy is to let it rip through kids. The JCVI even seemed to think that the vaccination of adults would reduce the risk of children becoming infected which is probably explained by the pathetic PHE 'studies' which claimed to show there was little risk of Covid spreading around schools which were outdated and flawed from the off! The reality is that, by letting infections rip through kids (a quarter of a million off school for Covid-related reasons on 21st October including over 200k infected), infections are finding their way into their parents and grandparents age groups which is where the deaths will occur.

This doesn't even take 'Long Covid' into consideration. Much like the JCVI who seemed to think tens of thousands of kids with long-lasting health issues wasn't really a problem.

When the inquiry into the response to the pandemic eventually takes place, it will be so damning for all these bodies. Providing it is a proper and independent inquiry, of course.

Quoted from DB

My wife has had her booster, mine is due in 12 days. Flu jabs are done and topped up with a lifelong pneumonical jab.

I think it's better to be vaccinated than not. Why take chances when you don't have to, as they say prevention is best.

Had all the flu, Covid (x3) and pneumonia but still not had the Shingles vaccine

Not sure about it and haven't heard anything, anyone know owt please?

Too young to have had it myself, but I've read that it makes you feel like crap for a day or two after vaccination. Probably preferable to weeks of intense pain and potential nerve damage which can be caused by Shingles itself.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Looks like serious backpedaling there Humbo. Maringer got you on the facts.

By the way, are you still dodging the vaccine? Still scared that the nasty scientists are lying that it’s less risky than the virus? To you and the rest of society.

Fūck sake man. It’s not like you’re expected to go over the top to face the Hun.

Pack pedalling🤔 The guy has blocked me absolutely fine with that, but All I’ve done is tried to reach out to him only because it has become apparent that he his still reading and responding (indirectly) to my post😀
In fact one of his last post he even reiterates why he’s blocked me again because I talk nonsense…… talk about self righteousness!
The problem is I have called him out on many things and he simple doesn’t like it, weather it’s dodgy scientific reports, data and predictions he his so self righteous he simply cannot take it so rather than debate he spits his dummy out, I have put my hand up many times on here over the years when I have got things wrong although not to many to be honest😀.

Look what’s your problem with me not taking the vaccine?  Worry about yourself I respect your decision get on with it I don’t come on here looking for a fight you know.
I bet you’d love me to get Covid well unlike your pal Maringer I’m enjoying my life mixing with crowds back at the football Sheffield arena last night, Cleethorpes bonfire tonight big crowd, 2 kids coming home from school every night so I’m certainly not scared, although I do respect the virus which is why I take responsible precautions, now you get back behind that sofa with Maringer before something bad happens…Boo!

More scaremongering form the government.

https://www.gbnews.uk/news/covid-sajid-javid-urges-people-to-get-booster-jabs-to-save-christmas/154793

Hold on though:


Gilbert told the Daily Telegraph that elderly people and those with weakened immune systems should be in line for a third jab, but “I don’t think we need to boost everybody”.

“As the virus spreads between people, it mutates and adapts and evolves, like the Delta variant,” she said. “With these outbreaks, we want to stop that as quickly as possible. We will look at each situation; the immunocompromised and elderly will receive boosters. But I don’t think we need to boost everybody. Immunity is lasting well in the majority of people"

And:

There should be no need for more Covid lockdowns because the health service must learn to "live with" the virus, the head of NHS Providers has said.

Chris Hopson, whose organisation negotiates with the Department of Health on behalf of NHS trusts, said the pandemic would soon be considered only "endemic" – but he warned that hospital bed occupancy was already at peak winter levels.

In an interview with Times Radio, Mr Hopson said: "I think all of us in the NHS recognise that we are now moving from a situation of a pandemic towards an endemic where we need to live with Covid.

"Everybody in the NHS absolutely recognises that it's our job to cope as best we can with Covid pressures, without resorting to the very draconian lockdowns that we've had to go through before."

Covid rates and death’s keep falling with no mask mandates or lockdown measures, kids back at school what is this witchcraft?
*Disclaimer* does not include mask wearing passport carrying smScotland!

In other news quick get the vaccine -
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/amanda-pritchard-nhs-chief-lambasted-after-covid-admissions-claim-0w78wbj7t

Vaccine BS propaganda reported as facts on the MSM 🙄

Quoted from Humbercod

Covid rates and death’s keep falling with no mask mandates or lockdown measures, kids back at school what is this witchcraft?

The large vaccine uptake.

Don’t confuse the little tyke with facts Manchester. You’ll only make his head hurt.

Got my booster jab booked for a week on Saturday.

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

The large vaccine uptake.

But we have been told on this forum many times from the Neil Ferguson fan club that ending mandates and masks would be carnage. Win/Win eh?

Deaths still trending upwards following the high rates of infection before half term cut transmission right down (oh, and the Immensa lab sending out false negatives was shut down). Deaths should hopefully start to fall soon, especially as the booster programme begins to take effect. Unfortunately, we're not giving the boosters fast enough still, though they are now managing to keep up with those becoming eligible as time goes on. We've still got 6 million people eligible who haven't had their boosters yet and it's vital that we get this number down as quickly as possible whilst still vaccinating those who are becoming eligible.

Bear in mind that the data from Israel indicates that the boosters cuts risk of infection by 95% - in comparison to those already double-jabbed. That is a big drop in risk. If we can get most of the 50+ age group 'boosted', it would go a long way to cutting right down on the deaths. Of course, there will still be plenty of people unvaccinated so we'll see a reasonable number of deaths and a lot of cases in children with the corresponding long-term illness in younger groups.

I'm not sure how much the new treatments Merck and Pfizer be able to stop serious illness and deaths. The data from the trials is excellent, but it's all a matter of getting enough doses of them in the first place then diagnosing Covid and prescribing the treatment in time for the drugs to take effect. Still they should hopefully save the lives of a number of people too foolish to be vaccinated. Perhaps more important is if they can keep people out of hospitals.

Ultimately, the question still remains whether or not it will be enough to stop the collapse of the NHS this winter. Let's hope for a relatively mild winter and a good year for influenza (by good, I mean not too many infections and a more effective vaccine than is often the case). Sounds as though the hospitals and ambulance services are at breaking point already and it hasn't got cold yet.

Quoted from Humbercod

But we have been told on this forum many times from the Neil Ferguson fan club that ending mandates and masks would be carnage. Win/Win eh?

Neil Ferguson Fan Club?! Grow up son.

Quoted from ginnywings

Got my booster jab booked for a week on Saturday.

The wife's had hers, I have mine on Monday.

Quoted from Maringer

Deaths still trending upwards following the high rates of infection before half term cut transmission right down (oh, and the Immensa lab sending out false negatives was shut down). Deaths should hopefully start to fall soon, especially as the booster programme begins to take effect. Unfortunately, we're not giving the boosters fast enough still, though they are now managing to keep up with those becoming eligible as time goes on. We've still got 6 million people eligible who haven't had their boosters yet and it's vital that we get this number down as quickly as possible whilst still vaccinating those who are becoming eligible.

Bear in mind that the data from Israel indicates that the boosters cuts risk of infection by 95% - in comparison to those already double-jabbed. That is a big drop in risk. If we can get most of the 50+ age group 'boosted', it would go a long way to cutting right down on the deaths. Of course, there will still be plenty of people unvaccinated so we'll see a reasonable number of deaths and a lot of cases in children with the corresponding long-term illness in younger groups.

I'm not sure how much the new treatments Merck and Pfizer be able to stop serious illness and deaths. The data from the trials is excellent, but it's all a matter of getting enough doses of them in the first place then diagnosing Covid and prescribing the treatment in time for the drugs to take effect. Still they should hopefully save the lives of a number of people too foolish to be vaccinated. Perhaps more important is if they can keep people out of hospitals.

Ultimately, the question still remains whether or not it will be enough to stop the collapse of the NHS this winter. Let's hope for a relatively mild winter and a good year for influenza (by good, I mean not too many infections and a more effective vaccine than is often the case). Sounds as though the hospitals and ambulance services are at breaking point already and it hasn't got cold yet.

I wouldn’t be to quick to shout about Israel death rate being cut the Mortality rate is already higher this year than the past 10 years!

NHS at breaking point, fish and chips!

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Neil Ferguson Fan Club?! Grow up son.

It’s funny how you don’t call out your fear mongering pal when he regurgitate‘s Fergusons projected nonsense?

I mean come on 200,000 cases a day, even a muppets like you must of thought he’s flipping nuts!

Quoted from Maringer

Bear in mind that the data from Israel indicates that the boosters cuts risk of infection by 95% - in comparison to those already double-jabbed. That is a big drop in risk. If we can get most of the 50+ age group 'boosted', it would go a long way to cutting right down on the deaths. Of course, there will still be plenty of people unvaccinated so we'll see a reasonable number of deaths and a lot of cases in children with the corresponding long-term illness in younger groups.

I'm not sure how much the new treatments Merck and Pfizer be able to stop serious illness and deaths. The data from the trials is excellent, but it's all a matter of getting enough doses of them in the first place then diagnosing Covid and prescribing the treatment in time for the drugs to take effect. Still they should hopefully save the lives of a number of people too foolish to be vaccinated. Perhaps more important is if they can keep people out of hospitals.

Regarding the booster jabs and the infection risks (Israel already planning no. 4) I remember when we were told 1 jab then 2 jabs stops not only Covid but also transmission, old plastic face from Pimlico plumbing was being rolled out on the TV at every opportunity saying that he wouldn’t employ anybody not jabbed for this reason. I knew this was BS.
We were then told you can still transmit but at a lower rate, again I smelt a rat and I didn’t believe it along with the many free to speak independent experts, you know the ones ignored by the Media, this as now been debunked! Even though Crazy Biden still saying the jab stops Covid mind😀

So forgive me when I say that I don’t believe this latest news based on small biased data. No matter how many booster you have they will not reduce transmission.

It’s funny how you mention these new miracle pills yet you have rubbished ivermectin that is also made by Merck when the main difference is about £500 a pill!
Would love to hear your thoughts on Uttar Padesh region in India over 200 million people who after being wiped out early in the year went on ivermectin through the regions towns and villages and their death and cases have flatlined ever since, The WHO praised the Authority for its success but strangely didn’t mention Ivermectin in their report.

https://www.who.int/india/news/feature-stories/detail/uttar-pradesh-going-the-last-mile-to-stop-covid-19

Many other Country!s who are now administering Ivermectin are now seeing cases plummet.
Over in USA doctors are now filing lawsuits against hospitals in their pursuit to administer this Covid killing drug the following short video will be shown in court -
https://odysee.com/@FrontlineCovid19CriticalCareAlliance:c/MARIK-TRO-MOTION-KAMEN-Dec-EX-A:7

So glad they made the groundbreaking discovery of Pfizermectin!

Anyone that didn’t think a booster rolls out was on the cards was naive…aside from not believing anything this government says, when huge profit is to be made it was inevitable…

Quoted from Maringer

Deaths still trending upwards following the high rates of infection before half term cut transmission right down (oh, and the Immensa lab sending out false negatives was shut down). Deaths should hopefully start to fall soon, especially as the booster programme begins to take effect. Unfortunately, we're not giving the boosters fast enough still, though they are now managing to keep up with those becoming eligible as time goes on. We've still got 6 million people eligible who haven't had their boosters yet and it's vital that we get this number down as quickly as possible whilst still vaccinating those who are becoming eligible.

Bear in mind that the data from Israel indicates that the boosters cuts risk of infection by 95% - in comparison to those already double-jabbed. That is a big drop in risk. If we can get most of the 50+ age group 'boosted', it would go a long way to cutting right down on the deaths. Of course, there will still be plenty of people unvaccinated so we'll see a reasonable number of deaths and a lot of cases in children with the corresponding long-term illness in younger groups.

I'm not sure how much the new treatments Merck and Pfizer be able to stop serious illness and deaths. The data from the trials is excellent, but it's all a matter of getting enough doses of them in the first place then diagnosing Covid and prescribing the treatment in time for the drugs to take effect. Still they should hopefully save the lives of a number of people too foolish to be vaccinated. Perhaps more important is if they can keep people out of hospitals.

Ultimately, the question still remains whether or not it will be enough to stop the collapse of the NHS this winter. Let's hope for a relatively mild winter and a good year for influenza (by good, I mean not too many infections and a more effective vaccine than is often the case). Sounds as though the hospitals and ambulance services are at breaking point already and it hasn't got cold yet.

More incorrect claims form the head of the NHS.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/fact-check-are-the-nhs-chief-s-covid-claims-correct-

And the ONS are been challenged from their former head about misrepresentation of data.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Neil Ferguson Fan Club?! Grow up son.

He's back !!!

Professor Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist whose modelling helped instigate the first lockdown last year, said he hopes the UK can “avoid” returning to social distancing restrictions this winter.

The infectious diseases expert said the UK was in a different situation to other countries in Europe that are seeing a significant uptick in cases.

“I think it is unlikely we will get anything close to what we had last year, that catastrophic winter wave.
“We might see slow increases as we did in October, for instance, but not anything as rapid as we saw last year,” Professor Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Asked if the rise in cases on the continent could impact the UK during winter, he said: “Not necessarily. We don’t fully understand the drivers of what’s causing the increases in places like Germany though where cases numbers have gone up very quickly. It may be waning immunity from the vaccines – they haven’t rolled out boosters as quickly as we have, it may be going into winter that people are mingling more indoors.”

He added: “We can’t be complacent, but at the moment I don’t think we’ll be in a situation the Netherlands is coming into where they really do need to get on top of rising case numbers using social distancing.

“I very much hope we can avoid that in this country.”

Several countries in Europe are introducing tighter measures in a bid to stop the spread of the virus.

Next month, over-65s in France will find their pass sanitaire, the country’s Covid pass, expires six months after their second dose unless they receive a booster.

More than 11 million people in the UK have received a booster dose of a Covid vaccine so far.

Frontline health workers, clinically vulnerable individuals and those aged 50 and over are all currently eligible for the additional dose.

Professor Ferguson said he saw no reason why booster jabs shouldn’t be rolled out to younger age groups once progress was made for vulnerable and priority age groups.

“Modelling of the group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests it could make quite a big difference to driving down transmission to low levels,” he said.

My wife had her booster yesterday and feels terrible, she’s had to call an ambulance this afternoon (breathing problems and heart palpitations) she’s been checked over and told to rest up, she was fine with her first 2 jabs, this one has knocked her for six.

My wife's arm went solid after her booster. Hope your wife recovers soon.

It's my turn tomorrow!

Thanks Dave, good luck mate.

Hopefully she will be fine Chris, my wife had exactly the same issues which was quite scary but she was totally fine after a few days.

Thanks HC 👍

My Dad felt really rough after his booster the other week as well but also had the flu jab at the same time. I actually had a flu jab on Friday (not eligible for the Covid booster though I got my initial vaccine earlier) and was knackered yesterday. Flu jabs don't normally affect me so I wonder if this was the reason my Dad felt so rough as well?

The thing to be positive about is that the booster reduces your risk of hospitalisation/death by 95% in comparison to those already double-vaccinated. Antibody titres way off the scale following the third jab and you'd hope the booster should be enough to get people through winter without serious illness and hopefully less risk of spreading it if you do still catch it.

I always expected there would be boosters given around now, but I have to admit I thought they would be ones adapted for newer variants. The fact that Delta makes up 99% of cases in most of the world makes it a 'no brainer' to produce updated vaccines targetting Delta but the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are coining it in right now so I'm not too surprised they aren't pushing too hard to update the vaccine. Hopefully, they will still carry out proper trials of adapted vaccines in good time and changing the production process shouldn't make any difference with the mRNA technology.

My guess is we'll end up with a flu jab situation where the most vulnerable will receive an updated vaccine every year or two. Either that, or one of the many other vaccine approaches in development leads to one whose protection is longer-lasting.

Pandemics usually last at least a few years, so no surprise this one is still ongoing, even with our modern technology. I see that many western European countries are reintroducing limited lockdowns, even those with much higher vaccine coverage than us (because they've properly vaccinated teens). Watch out for what is going on in the Germanic countries - Austria, Germany, Switzerland. They have levels of vaccination similar to ours (though more patchy as they have a stronger anti-vaxx sentiment than we do) and the figures indicate the crap is going to hit the fan over there soon. Whether or not if will be possible to see if the UK's unwritten plan of infecting kids as quickly as possible to try and reduce overall infections within the community over winter remains to be seen. Hopefully so, because if not then the lives of a few tens of kids and the longer-term health of thousands (Long Covid) have been sacrificed for nothing.

Still no idea why we've not reintroduced a mask mandate. The ambulance services are all on black alert, with ambulances queuing outside hospitals unable to get patients admitted for hours. Hospital occupancy is higher than it usually gets in the worst part of winter (and it has been very mild over the past couple of weeks). We're setting ourselves up for another terrible winter with a greater risk of lockdown because we don't want to implement a few minor mitigations. It's ludicrous. After the half-term dip, infections are now on the way back up so we'll be seeing hospitalisations and deaths following. Hopefully not too much, if the booster programme can be accelerated enough.

Quoted from Stadium

More incorrect claims form the head of the NHS.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/fact-check-are-the-nhs-chief-s-covid-claims-correct-

I'd seen criticism of that on twitter because there really is no excuse for fiddling the statistics, even if you're doing it to try and get a more positive health outcome (i.e. more people vaccinated). Messing around with the denominator is what the Covid minimisers do - quoting death rates based on total population instead of the actual number of people with confirmed or even suspected infections to give an artificially low indication of risk. The minimisers knowingly being dishonest so the people who are in the right certainly shouldn't be copying them - two wrongs don't make a right!

Had my booster Monday 9.00 am. No ill effects, the wife says I'm thick-skinned! :-/

Quoted from Maringer

My Dad felt really rough after his booster the other week as well but also had the flu jab at the same time. I actually had a flu jab on Friday (not eligible for the Covid booster though I got my initial vaccine earlier) and was knackered yesterday. Flu jabs don't normally affect me so I wonder if this was the reason my Dad felt so rough as well?

The thing to be positive about is that the booster reduces your risk of hospitalisation/death by 95% in comparison to those already double-vaccinated. Antibody titres way off the scale following the third jab and you'd hope the booster should be enough to get people through winter without serious illness and hopefully less risk of spreading it if you do still catch it.

I always expected there would be boosters given around now, but I have to admit I thought they would be ones adapted for newer variants. The fact that Delta makes up 99% of cases in most of the world makes it a 'no brainer' to produce updated vaccines targetting Delta but the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are coining it in right now so I'm not too surprised they aren't pushing too hard to update the vaccine. Hopefully, they will still carry out proper trials of adapted vaccines in good time and changing the production process shouldn't make any difference with the mRNA technology.

My guess is we'll end up with a flu jab situation where the most vulnerable will receive an updated vaccine every year or two. Either that, or one of the many other vaccine approaches in development leads to one whose protection is longer-lasting.

Pandemics usually last at least a few years, so no surprise this one is still ongoing, even with our modern technology. I see that many western European countries are reintroducing limited lockdowns, even those with much higher vaccine coverage than us (because they've properly vaccinated teens). Watch out for what is going on in the Germanic countries - Austria, Germany, Switzerland. They have levels of vaccination similar to ours (though more patchy as they have a stronger anti-vaxx sentiment than we do) and the figures indicate the crap is going to hit the fan over there soon. Whether or not if will be possible to see if the UK's unwritten plan of infecting kids as quickly as possible to try and reduce overall infections within the community over winter remains to be seen. Hopefully so, because if not then the lives of a few tens of kids and the longer-term health of thousands (Long Covid) have been sacrificed for nothing.

Still no idea why we've not reintroduced a mask mandate. The ambulance services are all on black alert, with ambulances queuing outside hospitals unable to get patients admitted for hours. Hospital occupancy is higher than it usually gets in the worst part of winter (and it has been very mild over the past couple of weeks). We're setting ourselves up for another terrible winter with a greater risk of lockdown because we don't want to implement a few minor mitigations. It's ludicrous. After the half-term dip, infections are now on the way back up so we'll be seeing hospitalisations and deaths following. Hopefully not too much, if the booster programme can be accelerated enough.

Well boosters more likely to be three months.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-booster-omicron-protection-wanes-within-10-weeks/

A more realistic outlook.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1108622

The surprise is that the variant which is going to be dominant around the world in mere months is nothing to do with Delta! And, in fact, it seems it doesn't have much to do with Beta, either. Probably developed either in an immunocompromised patient or in an animal before transferring back into the general population. Remember back when they culled millions of mink in Denmark last year, just in case?

Makes the idea of using variant-specific vaccines a little bit tricky. They ought to be more useful than those based on the original virus out of Wuhan, but difficult to pick one. A bit like how flu vaccines are chosen depending on what is in circulation, I suppose.

I think 'endemicity' was always going to happen. I assumed it would be with Delta, but the speed Omicron has spread and the immune escape aspect means that the majority of us will be catching it during the next six months. The problem is that the speed of spread (it appears to infect and transmit within 3 days) means that the peak is going to be terrible (and very soon). It wouldn't surprise me if things were generally settling down as regards the pandemic within a few months. Lots of people will be lost before then, unfortunately.

The Pfizer and Merck drugs will probably save a lot of lives in the longer term. Unfortunately, the are needed right now and it's going to vs several months until decent amounts of th drugs will be available.

Remsedevir was only ever marginally useful (the trial data showed it wasn't up to much), but it's use was authorised due to desperation. Luckily, this isn't the case with the Pfizer drug especially which has very firm data to back it up.

My guess is that, this time next year, if you test positive for Covid (whichever variant is around), you'll be told to isolate for a week and take some pills. We should be back close to normal life, fingers-crossed.

Sad story of an anti vaxxer. Thought he was too young and strong to succumb.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/anti-vaxxer-kickboxing-champion-41-25791356

And yet people still think Covid doesn’t exist 🤔 I’ve had many family members who have contracted it the most serious one being my wife (she still hasn’t fully recovered after getting it in July) we’ve all had our jabs in our household and taken all precautions (sensibly) we do go out and live normally but we are well aware and keep ourselves and everyone else as safe as possible.

Quoted from cmackenzie4

And yet people still think Covid doesn’t exist 🤔 I’ve had many family members who have contracted it the most serious one being my wife (she still hasn’t fully recovered after getting it in July) we’ve all had our jabs in our household and taken all precautions (sensibly) we do go out and live normally but we are well aware and keep ourselves and everyone else as safe as possible.

Quoted from ginnywings

Sad story of an anti vaxxer. Thought he was too young and strong to succumb.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/anti-vaxxer-kickboxing-champion-41-25791356

I think both these posts highlight the seriousness of covid and the lax attitude by the young.  Covid does not recognise age, nor health, and attacks anybody. We can only protect ourselves the best way we can and hope the anti-vaxers see the errors of their ways.

Quoted from DB

I think both these posts highlight the seriousness of covid and the lax attitude by the young.  Covid does not recognise age, nor health, and attacks anybody. We can only protect ourselves the best way we can and hope the anti-vaxers see the errors of their ways.

NYE party time.

Quoted from ginnywings

Sad story of an anti vaxxer. Thought he was too young and strong to succumb.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/anti-vaxxer-kickboxing-champion-41-25791356

Seriously? You had to go to Belgium to try and prove a point?
How about some balance there are many people even children who have died after the vaccine! Duck duck go!
Just had to delve deeper on the kick boxer as I smelt a rat (it was the staged like photo) and again there are so many different reports it would be hard to substantiate.
What I do see from pictures is a guy that I suspect had a strong steroid abuse that his immune system would of been heavily compromised, just look at his frame his size is not natural.
Either way millions of people have had Covid and survived there will always be an very minor exception to the rule young fit and healthy ( still laughing you had to go to Belgium😂) likewise a minority will die after vaccination, all about context😉

Quoted from Humbercod

Seriously? You had to go to Belgium to try and prove a point?
How about some balance there are many people even children who have died after the vaccine! Duck duck go!
Just had to delve deeper on the kick boxer as I smelt a rat (it was the staged like photo) and again there are so many different reports it would be hard to substantiate.
What I do see from pictures is a guy that I suspect had a strong steroid abuse that his immune system would of been heavily compromised, just look at his frame his size is not natural.
Either way millions of people have had Covid and survived there will always be an very minor exception to the rule young fit and healthy ( still laughing you had to go to Belgium😂) likewise a minority will die after vaccination, all about context😉

For the 1000th time, it’s ‘could have’, not ‘could of’. You couldn’t ‘of’’ done anything. Of is not a verb.

Quoted from chaos33

For the 1000th time, it’s ‘could have’, not ‘could of’. You couldn’t ‘of’’ done anything. Of is not a verb.

Boring girl private that’s all!

Quoted from Humbercod

Seriously? You had to go to Belgium to try and prove a point?
How about some balance there are many people even children who have died after the vaccine! Duck duck go!
Just had to delve deeper on the kick boxer as I smelt a rat (it was the staged like photo) and again there are so many different reports it would be hard to substantiate.
What I do see from pictures is a guy that I suspect had a strong steroid abuse that his immune system would of been heavily compromised, just look at his frame his size is not natural.
Either way millions of people have had Covid and survived there will always be an very minor exception to the rule young fit and healthy ( still laughing you had to go to Belgium😂) likewise a minority will die after vaccination, all about context😉

No, never been to Belgium and I fail to see how It's a laughing matter.. What the fook difference does it make what country it happened in?

So basically, what you are saying is that anything you post is correct and researched and comes from reputable sources, whereas anything else posted by others that you don't agree with, is wrong and staged and to be laughed at.

You are as thick as mince.

Quoted from ginnywings

No, never been to Belgium and I fail to see how It's a laughing matter.. What the fook difference does it make what country it happened in?

So basically, what you are saying is that anything you post is correct and researched and comes from reputable sources, whereas anything else posted by others that you don't agree with, is wrong and staged and to be laughed at.

You are as thick as mince.

Why do you find it so hard to understand? The post was pure propaganda to insinuate healthy people below the medium age of death who don’t get the jab are putting themselves at risk.
When the facts show otherwise, it was extreme fearmongering that the government would’ve been proud (off)

I laughed at the fact the story was copied and pasted from the Mirror 👏🏼and that it came out of Belgium and we still don’t know the full facts utter desperation.

You have the neck to call me thick but you and the majority on here have been so brainwashed by by the government’s fear tactics you don’t want this to end. I’m open to listen to your own research but the figures that I find are still showing a 99.5% survival rate for those below 70 if these are not the facts (could of) please let me know.

Quoted from Maringer

Remsedevir was only ever marginally useful (the trial data showed it wasn't up to much), but it's use was authorised due to desperation. Luckily, this isn't the case with the Pfizer drug especially which has very firm data to back it up.

Still reading my messages. then.
Seriously is that all you have to say?  Wasn’t up to much? The drug is a crock of excrement that even it’s own studies show that it causes multiple organ failure. It was signed off in desperation apparently knowing full well that it wasn’t safe but still very profitable. Whilst other exceptionally safe cheap repurposed drugs that had shown better results were suppressed by the the powers that be. No wonder it’s 50/50 chance of survival once a Covid patient hits ICU it’s more than likely the Remdesivir is killing them.

Check out the Remdesivir treatment for Ebola trials 2018/2019  (maybe not google) the drug was such a disaster killing 54% of all people that got the drug that the trial was stopped. In May 2020 Anthony Fauci said whilst promoting Remdesivir for emergency use, that it had been safe and effective treating Ebola in Africa!

You’re just ill-informed, thick, dangerous illegitimates you anti-vaxers. There’s no excuse.

Take this lot of muppets who thought they were doing over a vaccine centre. Absolute idiots. Too thick to tie their own shoe laces.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/vaccine-piers-corbyn-milton-keynes-b1984388.html?amp

Quoted from Humbercod

Still reading my messages. then.
Seriously is that all you have to say?  Wasn’t up to much? The drug is a crock of excrement that even it’s own studies show that it causes multiple organ failure. It was signed off in desperation apparently knowing full well that it wasn’t safe but still very profitable. Whilst other exceptionally safe cheap repurposed drugs that had shown better results were suppressed by the the powers that be. No wonder it’s 50/50 chance of survival once a Covid patient hits ICU it’s more than likely the Remdesivir is killing them.

Check out the Remdesivir treatment for Ebola trials 2018/2019  (maybe not google) the drug was such a disaster killing 54% of all people that got the drug that the trial was stopped. In May 2020 Anthony Fauci said whilst promoting Remdesivir for emergency use, that it had been safe and effective treating Ebola in Africa!

Forgive my ignorance, and I may be mistaken here, but were you not advocating for the use of remdesivir in another thread?

I'm confused.

Quoted from ginnywings

Forgive my ignorance, and I may be mistaken here, but were you not advocating for the use of remdesivir in another thread?

I'm confused.

No Ginny, but I have posted many times questioning the use of it. Just to re-cap 2 local Doctors had told me that it’s still in use at Grimsby hospital, another poster claims that it is not being used in a hospital where is friend works. There is an official NHS policy statement that can be found on line confirming the Use of Remdesivir to treat Covid patients but the argument is that it’s dated June 2021, but there is no statement to be found that confirms the drug has been withdrawn.

I am now awaiting another response from the NHS under the freedom of information request who confirm they will answer my question within 20 days.

Quoted from Humbercod

No Ginny, but I have posted many times questioning the use of it. Just to re-cap 2 local Doctors had told me that it’s still in use at Grimsby hospital, another poster claims that it is not being used in a hospital where is friend works. There is an official NHS policy statement that can be found on line confirming the Use of Remdesivir to treat Covid patients but the argument is that it’s dated June 2021, but there is no statement to be found that confirms the drug has been withdrawn.

I am now awaiting another response from the NHS under the freedom of information request who confirm they will answer my question within 20 days.

You need a hobby or a girlfriend or something.

Quoted from Neilo83

You need a hobby or a girlfriend or something.

To be fair I have been self isolating for the last 5 days🤒

Normally I would’ve questioned your post but thinking about it you make such a good point of which you probably don’t even realise.

Not sure if you’re late to the party on here or not (sorry don’t recognise your name) but this non football forum has been dominated by the topic of Covid and everything that goes with it for a few years now.
And the one thing the posters have in common (besides being Town fans) is a major concern about what’s happening with the pandemic and how it’s being dealt with. Now you can say what’s the point waffling on  about it on here, as it changes absolutely nothing! Why not find something better to do with your time? Which would be ironic as you’ve now posted just 49 pages in….I presume you’ve read them all!

Still I am coming around to your unbeknown point having some merit, let’s just say that my concerns about a potentially dangerous drug still being administered to Covid patients whilst in hospital does have validity…so then what? I come back on here start venting off, probably have a row with a few posters but ultimately nothing changes, people have become conditioned and accepting. And this is where your point has worth as it’s all for nothing. You only have to look at the party’s we choose to govern us, every few years the debates start at home at work and in the pubs especially on here about how either another Labour or Tory government would almost certainly end up being an abject failure one way or another and yet we still vote them in 😵‍💫