To the Owners (merged)

Quoted from MuddyWaters

OK - let's be a little bit more selective. We've taken one point (and needed to score 5 to do so) from the last six home games, conceding 23 goals. Please give me any reasoning as to how that can be acceptable.

I am not sure I said it was.

Alternative interpretation of the data:

During his steady ascent through league 2 culminating in eventual promotion and respectable mid table League 1 finish, David Artell was reaping the rewards of a once in a generation crop of young talent coming into maturity in the first team.

They were technically capable, mentally pliable, and receptive to both take on new coaching methods and critically to execute on them.

After the 12th place finish, that crop of talent went onto higher and better things as a reward for their endeavours, leaving Artell to

1. Rebuild a depleted squad with players of his own choosing and
2. Attempt to train said players in his methods when they may have lacked the attributes of those that they replaced.

It ended with historic low performances over the course of his final season with Crewe.

A reasonable hypothesis based around the empirical data available. Other interpretations are available, and seemingly provided by DA as he spun his successful narrative to an eagerly listening JS.

Quoted from arryarryarry

You are being selective in ignoring his last season at Crewe when they got relegated and according to Wiki  one of the worst season's in their recent history.

When I employed someone I would look at their CV and whilst reviewing it all would have a good look their latest employment and how they did with that.

Artell should have resigned in May/June 2021. He was mentally and physically exhausted by the time he was sacked in April, 2022. As he put it "by the end I was out of puff".

Quoted from mariner91

Could you point to some non-selective data or facts that suggest Artell will turn round this disastrous run of form?

I thought I would have a look into some stats on FlashScore and see what is looking positive, considering we’re up excrement creek in my opinion. Including the Crewe game onwards we have had 151 shots at goal with 42 on target, 131 against at goal 52 on target. That includes Mansfields 34 and 15.
It just seems madness that Walsall have 6 shots on target against us and score all 6, even more remarkable Doncaster have 4 shots on target and score 5.
Think we just need to prey not to concede ridiculous goals.

Quoted from arryarryarry

You are being selective in ignoring his last season at Crewe when they got relegated and according to Wiki  one of the worst season's in their recent history.

When I employed someone I would look at their CV and whilst reviewing it all would have a good look their latest employment and how they did with that.

I wasn't ignoring his last season. Read what I said again.

I am sure JS did the same thing and saw how he built a club struggling at the foot of League Two to a team that finished 12th League One. I am also sure he would have asked him about his final season at Crewe and what were the reasons for such a poor season. So pretty similar to your process really.

Quoted from MarinerMal

Even when the majority of the recent record that was used he wasn't even at this club? Some mangers have had very poor starts to their careers at clubs but turned it around. If rumours are to be believed even Alex Ferguson was one game away from being sacked (and no I am not comparing DA to AF)

Surely if you are going to analyse somebody's competence based on their statistics it is only fair to use their full career?

I understand the argument you are making, but doesn't it make a mockery of it all? When he did well there were mitigating circumstances, when he did badly there were mitigating circumstances.

If we employed Pep his stats would take somewhat of a hammering.

If I had been choosing a manager, I would always choose an up-and-coming manager from the league below, who is (currently) used to winning and really wants to progress in the game, but really it is a lottery. Our owners decided the style of play was the most important thing so they will have to live or die by that.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

I understand the argument you are making, but doesn't it make a mockery of it all? When he did well there were mitigating circumstances, when he did badly there were mitigating circumstances.

If we employed Pep his stats would take somewhat of a hammering.

If I had been choosing a manager, I would always choose an up-and-coming manager from the league below, who is (currently) used to winning and really wants to progress in the game, but really it is a lottery. Our owners decided the style of play was the most important thing so they will have to live or die by that.

Well this is my point really. Taking on any new manager is a risk.

I understand your point about an up and coming manager from the Leagues below. You could end up with an Alan Buckley or you may end up with a Marcus Bignot.

You are right, it really is a lottery. Which is why I feel some of the comments on here about attacking the owners for such a rubbish appointment are a bit harsh, even though understandable given the recent run of results.

The owners idea of establishing a club DNA, playing a certain brand of football makes sense to me. So there is less disruption when we do change manager.  

Quoted from Poojah

It’s a consecutive sequence of games totalling more than a season’s worth of games, running up to the current day. It’s not cherrypicking, it’s just a matter of recency.

A good chunk of Russell Slade’s earlier CV is quite impressive, but there’s a very stark decline in performance and results post-Cardiff City, and that’s the reason he no longer gets a sniff at EFL or even non-league gigs. After a certain amount of time, his earlier achievements become increasingly less relevant.

We’re talking about a shorter timeframe when we look at David Artell’s career, but to dismiss analyses which highlight a very distinctive pattern over his 50+ games at two clubs as “poor” purely because it discounts earlier data is too simplistic, imo. Managers lose effectiveness. Managers lose the plot. Powerpoint peddling, Matt Dean-blaming Russell Slade again a very good case in point.

It is the very definition of cherry-picking. You just select the stats that you want prove your point.

To compare him to Russell Slade's career is unfair given that DA has only had one job, previously. But in that job he has already achieved something I don't think RS ever did and that was achieve a promotion.

If you are discounting data just because it doesn't fit your narrative, that is being too simplistic.

Quoted from MarinerMal

I wasn't ignoring his last season. Read what I said again.

I am sure JS did the same thing and saw how he built a club struggling at the foot of League Two to a team that finished 12th League One. I am also sure he would have asked him about his final season at Crewe and what were the reasons for such a poor season. So pretty similar to your process really.

I agree with you, people are being selective with the data, and they were when we hired him. It's based on the mood.

I knew how bad his last season with Crewe was, and I knew it came after losing a bunch of young players that came through the Dario Gradi system. What that told me was that he couldn't identify good players but could get a tune out of young developing ones already taught to play the Crewe way.

No way did I think it'd be this bad, but I'd have bet strongly that we won't progress playing this football in this division without the best academy below the Championship that's been going for decades at huge cost.

Now it's really hit the fan, all anybody can see is the bad. But he did get Crewe promoted and did win manager of the year, which is what people saw at first.

Both happened and both are valid. I tend to think a relegation season as your last is too big a red flag to ignore unless you're in a state like Sheff Utd where it was virtually impossible to stay up this season. Tha same goes for players and that's been right for every single one of them this season.

you can pin this if artell stops for 8 or 9 more games we will be in the national lge again next season but in my opinion he's got two games & fgr is a must win at home lose that & the fans will want blood & jason will have to admit a mistake