Ukraine War

Some random thoughts:
The Ukrainian Leader is shown in a clip on the BBC today as their narrator for Paddington Bear.  It is very good.

The USA was very worried in 1962 about Russian missiles in Cuba.  There were not being delivered there for Nov the 5th.  Russian leaders are aggressive.  The USA is part of NATO, which is a mutually and protective defensive alliance.

The Russians have no reason to fear near NATO countries.  Although I can see why they are very uncomfortable with it, given their mindset.  They are powerful enough to look after themselves.

The Cuban missiles were only stopped when the USA agreed to remove their missiles from Turkey.  This concession was not made public at the time.

Russian leaders only respect strength and are paranoid that countries are out to get them.  Although they are now.  I saw a comment from a reporter yesterday that Russia never ever makes any concessions in negotiations.

Pictures in the papers today with a young Miss Ukraine holding an assault rifle, saying she is going to fight.  Good for her.

Nothing much changes.  I was in RAF Germany in the late 1970s at a big fighter base.  2 airmen were in front of the Station Commander for fighting in the NAAFI.  The CO had a reputation as a tough leader.  He sentenced the airmen to 28 days in a military detention centre saying “You are here to fight the Russians, not each other”.

The Army, the RAF and the Americans were in Germany as a significant deterrent to stop Russian invading into North West Europe.  This worked,  

Quoted from GollyGTFC

You have to ask what state the Russian military is actually in. They seem to be a bit like a lot of YouTube influencers. What they show you is amazing, but the reality is no where near what is suggested.

After all their military spending is only at the same level as the UK and about 1/12th of the USA.

After years of only fighting those who can’t realistically fight back they’re now fighting a live opponent and it ain’t easy.

I’m inclined to believe the Russian dead figure is high because everything is pointing to them being very poorly trained. Which is odd when you consider how long they were training a couple of miles from the Ukrainian border.

I had this discussion today and I do believe the frustrations of Putin being annoyed Becauee it’s taken longer than anticipated for Kyiv to fall…everyone share fighting against people that offer little back, suddenly when you’re up against, that lack of funding, training and development comes back to bite you on the bottom. It’s all well and good having a few massive blokes who will run through walls…sadly, bullets don’t care how big you are.

The support for the invasion is probably not as well supported in Russia as their propaganda is telling us…

It doesn’t matter so much whether the Russian defence budget is similar to that of the UK of that it’s GDP is on a par with Italy. It’s Purchasing Power Parity that counts.

If the casualty figures are correct (the two sides always under-report their own and over-report the enemy’s), it’s probably a feature of the ages old Russian military characteristic to disregard their own soldiers’ lives. Go charging in and bûgger the consequences. It also looks like sheer incompetence amongst the senior officers. They’ve had 8 years preparation. I know everyone that can, is firing at them. But do they really need to stick to the roads in dense columns?

The other thing, to Aldi’s point, is this is like the Winter War when ill-prepared, incompetent Soviets were initially given what for before eventually overwhelming the Finns. They were the most highly mechanised army at the time, with the biggest Air Force in the world, but allowed their columns to be cut up into chunks, and beaten piecemeal. Ironically one of the Soviet divisions wiped out were Ukrainians.

The worry is that the Russians may step up bombing as a way through the logjam.

I think that's the issue now. The Russians went in thinking it would be a relative stroll and haven't used artillery all that much before now. With resistance stronger than anticipated and losses higher, this will almost certainly change. Reports that they've started missile attacks on civilian areas are an indication of the way things are headed and things are likely to get very much worse from here on in.

Ukrainian pilots have began arriving in Poland to collect their jets. These jets may also be stationed within Poland which is a very bold move.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

Ukrainian pilots have began arriving in Poland to collect their jets. These jets may also be stationed within Poland which is a very bold move.

A potentially war-starting move. I can't see how they could get away with this without serious repercussions. There's a reason the Russians will have taken out all their airfields in the first attacks.

That said, the whole idea of 'donating' jets seems an odd one to me. Pilots would need to train in a particular type of aircraft to learn how to fly them, use all their weapon systems etc etc. How is this going to happen? They will have been flying Soviet aircraft (I expect). How would they be maintained without risking a wider conflict? Doesn't make sense.

Quoted from Maringer

A potentially war-starting move. I can't see how they could get away with this without serious repercussions. There's a reason the Russians will have taken out all their airfields in the first attacks.

That said, the whole idea of 'donating' jets seems an odd one to me. Pilots would need to train in a particular type of aircraft to learn how to fly them, use all their weapon systems etc etc. How is this going to happen? They will have been flying Soviet aircraft (I expect). How would they be maintained without risking a wider conflict? Doesn't make sense.

They’re the same aircraft types.

No way should they allow them to be based on Poland. Unless we are ready for Poland to be bombed.

Do the drones have capability to hit Russian airbases in Russia and Belarus?

Quoted from jamesgtfc

Ukrainian pilots have began arriving in Poland to collect their jets. These jets may also be stationed within Poland which is a very bold move.

Where has this been cited? As said above a big escalation if correct. As expected, Putin has escalated the missile bombardments following the failure to achieve a decisive quick victory with ground forces and started randomly throwing ordnance into civilian areas. The scary thing is that rationality is going out the window with Putin.  

Quoted from Maringer

A potentially war-starting move. I can't see how they could get away with this without serious repercussions. There's a reason the Russians will have taken out all their airfields in the first attacks.

That said, the whole idea of 'donating' jets seems an odd one to me. Pilots would need to train in a particular type of aircraft to learn how to fly them, use all their weapon systems etc etc. How is this going to happen? They will have been flying Soviet aircraft (I expect). How would they be maintained without risking a wider conflict? Doesn't make sense.

I suppose in some regard it gives Poland a bit more protection of their assets but it may make Putin launch an attack on Poland. I don't think he's likely to do that because he's struggling already.

European reliance on Russian fuel is a problem of our own making and it takes time to put right. I can't see Russia cutting that off though because it's quickly becoming one of their only revenue streams.