Coronavirus

Tier 5 coming up soon, so it is rumoured.

PHE has published evidence which seems to indicate that the new variant is ~50% more infectious as the models predicted. Thankfully, it doesn't appear to be riskier for a hospitalisation/deaths basis if you do catch it but, of course, as many more people will get it, then many more will die.

Before this emerged, I was sort of hopeful that the holiday I have booked in the Dales at Easter (rebooked after the one last-year was cancelled, of course) would be a relatively relaxed affair with things getting closer to normal by then thanks to the rollout of vaccine to the most vulnerable. Unfortunately, I think there is little chance of this with the new variant in circulation, though the vaccines should still be effective at stopping serious illness.

They reckon that around 90% of all Covid infections will be the new variant by the end of January because it is so infectious that it will lead to the older strain dying out. The variant was still spreading during the last lockdown so something closer to lockdown Mk I will be required to keep it in check.

With this in mind I reckon we're going to be living in lockdown or perhaps quasi-lockdown conditions for a few months, as they desperately try to get the vaccines out to the most vulnerable and get the spread under proper control. Effective track and trace would be nice, even at this late stage.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the footy season is curtailed once again. Given the surge in infections we are seeing now, which will be doubled (or trebled) following the relaxations over Christmas, I'm expecting we'll be seeing possibly thousands of deaths a day during January/February. It is going to be a terrible time, especially for NHS workers, so I hope everyone here gets through it OK.

And on that cheery note, goodnight.

Over 50,000 new cases today. Should have locked us down again before now. They never learn.

He’s just mentioned April 5th as possible target date to get back to some kind of ‘normal’

File with:

3 weeks to flatten the curve.
Easter.
Summer.
We can be out of this by Christmas.
Whack a mole.

April 5th, end of the tax year. Just sums up the cretins and their priorities. Covid is raging worse than ever and still no lockdown. Got to keep the wheels of industry turning.

New Year,New U turn by Frank Spencer.

https://www.theguardian.com/ed.....-closed-after-u-turn

Lock downs don’t work.

Quoted from Humbercod

Lock downs don’t work.

Fair point,there's an discussion around that.
Please provide your alternative?

Quoted from Stadium

Fair point,there's an discussion around that.
Please provide your alternative?

It tends to be along the lines of 'open everything up and let's crack on' which will almost definitely, certainly result in less infections,hospitalizations, death and we can all return to a land running with milk and honey once again.

If for arguments sake 99.5% of the population under the age of 75 will survive a bout, then surely  we need to be isolating and keeping safe those over the age of 75, then we can all get on with our lives and ride it out. This may sound selfish but I’m sure most over 75s wouldn’t expect the rest of the population to stay locked up just because of them which would also look selfish.

Quoted from Humbercod

If for arguments sake 99.5% of the population under the age of 75 will survive a bout, then surely  we need to be isolating and keeping safe those over the age of 75, then we can all get on with our lives and ride it out. This may sound selfish but I’m sure most over 75s wouldn’t expect the rest of the population to stay locked up just because of them which would also look selfish.

If the virus swept through the rest of the population, there would be so much of it around that you couldn’t keep it away from the vulnerable. They would inevitably catch it from care home staff, care in the community staff, delivery drivers, loved ones etc. The theory sounds great, but the reality would be quite different.