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Maringer
November 18, 2020, 11:57pm
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On another note, I came across a couple of interesting notes from posters on Derek Lowe's In the Pipeline blog.

Both relatively long but full of information, one from Italy, one from Germany.

First one, an Italian who explained how and why things have gone south so badly once again:

Quoted Text
Yes, we did, until early May, but then we reopened a month too soon, when there was still significant community diffusion in the most affected regions.

The original plan for ending the lockdown was to stagger the reopening by separating each phase by two weeks, to give the health authorities time to analyse the data and slow down things if needed, starting from early May and ending in late June. Unfortunately that wasn’t to be because as soon as some sectors reopened everybody else started to protest they weren’t allowed to reopen too and the government gave up, so by early June the only restrictions left were school closures and mandatory masks inside shops and on public transport.

At the same time the opposition decided that people were visibly tired of COVID-19 and took their cue from Trump: the leader of the largest opposition party personally attended anti-masking demonstrations, publicly refused all summer long to wear a mask and sponsored denialist meetimgs in parliament where masking and social distancing rules were flouted, while the regional governors belonging to his party started signing local ordinances reversing social distancing regulations in public transportation and shops and a number of politically connected doctors and hospital managers, all of them appointed to their positions by the same governors, started claiming that SARS-CoV-2 had muted, was clinically dead, was going to disappear soon, there was no need for any kind of restriction anymore and so on.

By August the epidemic flared up again in several tourist destinations, with multiple outbreaks connected to nightclubs and restaurants, so the government closed them again and started mandating testing for all travellers returning back to their cities from those areas and for travellers entering or reentering Italy from other countries. That was enough to regain control but the baseline number of cases didn’t go back to what it had been in July. You will not be surprised to learn that the opposition protested against the “useless damages to the economy” again, joined this time by some of the smaller parties who were nominally supporting the government but evidently had made the same calculation, and started to claim that there was no more need for emergency measures and the government was planning to institute an unconstitutional “health dictatorship,” whatever that means.

In September there were local elections scheduled in most of the country so the government felt compelled to show that things were going back to normal by reopening all schools and universities and by inviting all employers to recall the people who were still working from home back into the offices because restaurant and bar owners were being affected by the reduction in the number of customers. Of course that, and buses and trains going back to full capacity, was seen by a lot of people as an indication that social distancing and masks weren’t needed anymore, and the number of daily cases started creeping up again.

By mid October everybody who wasn’t actively trying not to see started to realise that the curve was trending in the wrong direction and doing it fast but the government had just barely managed to renew the decree giving it the powers needed to deal with the pandemic so there was no appetite at all for reinstating restrictions, and they decided to wait a few more weeks… you can look at the charts to see how well that went.

Now it’s November and there are restrictions again in some regions, but masks aren’t mandatory inside offices, working from home is only recommended and where I live high schools are closed and bars and restaurants close at 6pm but everything else is still open. Meanwhile I had two coworkers who shared a room with me for 8 hours every day test positive to COVID-19 and I’m still going to the office contact tracers have a huge backlog of cases to process and basically gave up, the number of cases, hospitalizations, occupied ICU beds and dead is still growing and the feeling here is that it will be a lot worse than in March and April.

All of this to say that the spring lockdown worked very well, but we haven’t been in lockdown for a long time, and it shows.


Second one from somebody in Germany:

Quoted Text
Its somewhat more complicated, at least here in Germany. Quarantining worked quite well, at least in the beginning, when the initial cases, directly imported from Wuhan, could be contained. Authorities then were surprised by the skiing holiday import, especially from Austria and South Tirol, and made a few crucial mistakes such as allowing Carnival celebrations.
Once present, the Virus worked its way through the afffected communities – generally suburban middle class, rather South than North German (for less distance to the Alps), with intensive contact into nursery homes. Lockdown measures were harsh – not as harsh as in Italy, but still including curfews in a few counties, plus closing schools, restaurants, non-essential shops and businesses. Still, those harsh measures didn’t manage to contain the disease in various counties. E.g., mortality in Tirschenreuth, Bavarian Forest, has been higher than in New Jersey, which last time I checked was the most affected state in the USA.

Miracously, it all ended sometime in May, for reasons yet unclear. More outdoor life, sunshine-induced presence of Vitamin D, maybe also the (rather late) stipulation to wear masks indoors, might all have helped – but the lockdown measures themselves were rather ineffective, partly even counter-productive. E.g., some states closed down hardware stores, others left them open, resulting in substantial shopping-related traffic across state borders, something you rather want to avoid when aiming at keeping outbreaks locally contained.

During late spring and early summer, the situation was fine. We had our regular local outbreaks among Eastern European contract workers – not just slaughterhouses, also cucumber pickling, asparagus, berry & cabbage harvest, atl. But since those contract workers hardly mixed with the locals, these outbreaks could be easily contained.

The situation changed with the holiday season, when people with migration background visited their (or their parents’) native country, and returned infected. This concerned especially Anatolia, Albania/ Kosovo, to a lesser extent also Russia and Ukraine. By mid-August, infection rates started to go up in places with substantial migrant population, e.g. Duisburg/ Herne, Offenbach, also Berlin. Large indoor weddings with up to 400 guests, as typical for some of these communities (and not allowed in Spring), provided for an effective spread. Notably, all these nuclei for the second wave had hardly been affected during the first wave, which primarily hit the suburban middle class of German descent.

Another factor was incoming tourists. Berlin as self-declared “Party Capital of Europe” in September attracted lots of Swedes, Balts, Poles, Czechs, Brits, possibly also Spanyards and Italians – all untested, un-monitored, and of course using a different Corona-App (if at all) from the German one. The outcome was expectable (unfortunately not for our politicians).

As for the outgoing side: Bavarian school holidays traditionally only start in mid-August, when the weather may already turn cooler on the North and Baltic Sea, so Bavarians rather flock towards the Adriatic. By mid-August, however, the South Balkans CovID-Cluster had already, yet unrecognised, expanded into Croatia (also NE Italy?), resulting in quite some holiday-makers returning infected. By that time, authorities were somewhat better prepared to check for post-holiday infections, but it was still quite a mess (and Bavarian authorities “losing” some 20.000 CoViD-tests certainly didn’t help).

Holiday infections weren’t just a Bavarian phenomenon, but affected, e.g., Austria and the Czech Republic as well. The next stage, expectably, was cross-border spread into Germany. Quite early, already by late August, infection rates went up along the German border to Luxemburg and Belgium. The Austrian border followed suit, and at the moment it is counties along the German-Czech border that have the highest infection rate. Today, at least two weeks too late, the Saxony State government has decreed a ban on “shopping tourism” for cigarettes or petrol to Poland/ Czechia – however that shall ultimately be enforced and controlled…

Finally, there is the Polish and Ukrainian diaspora. Typically female, working in hospitals or elderly care, w/o school-age children. After school holidays have ended, i.e. in September/ early October, they tend to spend a few weeks with their parents back home. You don’t have to be a prophet to imagine what happens afterwards – a look at Polish/ Ukrainian infection rates is sufficient. Expectably, the “second wave” is now hitting nursery homes again in full force, quickly filling up ICUs and driving up the death toll. Of course avoidable, had our government(s) finalised nursery home regulations and precautionary standards a couple of weeks earlier.

Essentially, most of what happens at the moment in Germany was foreseeable, and avoidable with proactive attention to the problems potentially caused by tourism (both outgoing and incoming), cross-border shopping and commuting, in nursery homes (and, of course, poorly ventilated food-processing facilities).
Well, these opportunities were missed. Here we are again with “lock-down light” (schools, barbers and book stores remain open this time), plus anti-constitutional activism. E.g., a State’s Supreme Court has ruled today that ordering mask wearing in all pedestrian zones is unconstitutional: It sufficed to order mask wearing in situations with a reasonable chance to encounter someone else within 1,50 m distance – a chance that is rather low in a small town at, say, Monday morning 9 am.


In Italy, it seems that the spread has mostly been down to US-style fuckwittery with people just pretending it was done and dusted when it obviously wasn't. Politicians stirring the pot to make things worse.

In Germany, most of the cases coming in cross-border rather than spreading from within the country (though it is inhabitants of Germany mostly bringing it back in). The poverty angle remains the same in most countries with lower-paid workers, often immigrants, doing the jobs where they are most susceptible to catching the virus. As an island, we had easy and complete control of our borders if we had wanted it, but just didn't bother.

Few countries have been faultless in their response, but it is interesting to see the number of ways in which the plans can fail.

Further good news about the potential longevity of immunity today so it's certainly likely that things will be very much more normal at this time next year. Let's hope we don't get too many excess deaths before then.
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Knut Anders Fosters Voles
November 19, 2020, 7:33pm
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I was one of those tourists who visited Italy several times last year. South and Central Italy were hardly touched by the first wave, in a similar way to counties like Lincolnshire over here. The cases were so low in areas like Abruzzo and Calabria that there was probably a level of false confidence in these regions.

Everybody wore a mask because they had to (apart from Berlusconi and his bungaboys). The only dispensation was if you had a terminal lung condition. Different to the UK where, if you once watched Jaws 2 in the dark, you could claim mask exemption.

Unfortunately, once you go south from Bologna, the rest of Italy is heavily reliant on tourism and off-payroll working. You can wear all the masks you want, but if the less affluent are forced to mix to survive on an economic level, the virus will spread.
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November 20, 2020, 9:57am

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LH
November 21, 2020, 11:03pm

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Briefing indirectly via the press at 2230 on Saturday night again and shock horror we’re in stricter restrictions.
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Stadium
November 22, 2020, 2:54pm
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Quoted from LH
Briefing indirectly via the press at 2230 on Saturday night again and shock horror we’re in stricter restrictions.


Incredible isn't it??
Wonder how the "leak" inquiry prior to this lockdown is coming along??
How odd they leaked that to The Times.........



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November 22, 2020, 2:56pm
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Oh dear Matt......


Matt Hancock has failed to declare that he appointed his closest friend from university, who is the director of a lobbying firm, as an adviser — and later gave her a £15,000-a-year role on the board of his department.

Gina Coladangelo, 42, is a director and major shareholder at Luther Pendragon, a lobbying firm based in central London that offers clients a “deep understanding of the mechanics of government”. She is also communications director at Oliver Bonas, a fashion and lifestyle store founded by her husband.

Hancock, the health secretary, first met Coladangelo, a public relations consultant, while involved with radio at Oxford University and the pair remain close friends.

In March, he secretly appointed her as an unpaid adviser at the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on a six-month contract.

She has since accompanied Hancock, 42, to confidential meetings with civil servants and visited No 10 Downing Street.

One source said: “Before Matt does anything big, he’ll speak to Gina. She knows everything.” Another added: “She has access to lots of confidential information.”

In September, Hancock appointed Coladangelo as a non-executive director at DHSC, meaning that she is a member of the board that scrutinises the department. There is no public record of the appointment, which will see her earn at least £15,000 of taxpayers’ money and could rise by a further £5,000.

Since April, Coladangelo has had a parliamentary pass, giving her unregulated access to the Palace of Westminster. It bears her husband’s surname, which she does not use professionally, and is sponsored by Lord Bethell, the hereditary peer, health minister and former lobbyist.

However, Coladangelo is understood to play no role in Bethell’s team.

Yesterday, the DHSC could not explain why he had sponsored her pass and had to ask this newspaper for help in finding the documents showing that he had done so.

The disclosures come as the government faces allegations of “chumocracy” and a lack of transparency in appointing friends from the private sector to key roles.

Lord Evans, the ex-MI5 boss, has warned that a “perception is taking root” that “some in our political leadership, are choosing to disregard the norms of ethics and propriety that have explicitly governed public life for the last 25 years”.

Last week, The Sunday Times also revealed that George Pascoe-Watson, chairman of Portland Communications, another lobbying firm, had advised a minister in Hancock’s department for most of the pandemic.

Shortly after leaving his role, he passed sensitive information about lockdown policy to paying clients. They include McDonald’s, which says that it has ceased all work with the firm and placed their relationship under review. Pascoe-Watson has insisted he did not gain the information through his role.

Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, responded by calling for an inquiry into how lobbyists are able to serve as government advisers, saying: “The public need answers now.”

She redoubled those calls last night as the government declined to dispute any aspect of the latest “chumocracy” story.

Instead, a government source said that Coladangelo — who studied economics at Oxford and is not known to have a health background — worked to “support DHSC in connection with its response to the current coronavirus global health emergency”.

Hancock and Coladangelo were pictured together as recently as last Monday. However, the source said that she had “previously” worked for Hancock, implying that her advisory role had come to an end. They added that she had signed a “volunteer’s agreement”, meaning that she is bound by the Official Secrets Act.

The DHSC did not respond to questions about a number of possible conflicts of interest arising from her role.

Luther Pendragon, the lobbying firm in which she is a director, boasts clients who have secured lucrative contracts during the pandemic, including British Airways (£70m) and Accenture, which received £2.5m to help build the NHS Covid-19 app.

Trade publications have described Oliver Bonas, for whom she works as communications and marketing director, as something of a “poster boy” for the government of late.

In June, for example, a blog was published on the government website entitled: “Oliver Bonas: Fashion and homeware store reopens safely.”

Then there is Coladangelo’s appointment as a non-executive director of DHSC, which appears in just one place publicly: her LinkedIn page. The role makes her responsible for “overseeing and monitoring performance” — in effect, scrutinising matters of concern to Hancock, with whom she attends Christmas drinks, birthday parties and family dinners.

Coladangelo’s role does not break any rules — because there are none. As Peter Riddell, the commissioner for public appointments, noted recently, such appointments are “not regulated at all” and increasingly take place “without competition and without any form of regulatory oversight”.

Ministers, in other words, are free to create a process or, as Hancock has apparently done, reward their closest friends with roles.

MPs also do not have to declare such advisers on the register of MPs’ staff and secretaries, which is designed to ensure transparency. On Hancock’s register, the West Suffolk MP lists three people. Coladangelo is not one of them.

Alex Thomas, who was right-hand man to Jeremy Heywood, the former cabinet secretary, and is a programme director at the Institute for Government, said: “It’s reasonable for ministers to take advice from a range of sources, but advisers should be transparent, accountable and appointed on merit.”

The former senior civil servant added: “Non-executive directors are appointed to bring in commercial and other expertise to departments, and to help ministers and civil servants deliver high priority projects. That’s where they add most value.”

During his time as a student journalist at Oxford, Hancock overslept on the day he was supposed to cover a rugby match at Twickenham. Instead of making it to the stadium, he got off the train early, found a nearby pub and watched the match on television, before writing the match report as planned.

In an interview on the BBC in April, in which she did not disclose her role, Coladangelo, a colleague of his at Oxygen FM, recalled: “He told a white lie, pretended he was at Twickenham watching the rugby, when in fact he was in a pub in Reading.” She added: “Successfully. Nobody ever found out.”

More than two decades later, Hancock is one of the most powerful officials in government and a member of the “quad” of cabinet ministers who determine Covid-19 policy. Some even credit him with persuading the PM to return to a second lockdown.

Coladangelo is now a successful businesswoman. And yet she finds herself facing questions, again, over what Hancock has and has not disclosed.



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“There's nothing wrong with the car except that it's on fire.”- Murray Walker
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Wow, some freshly laundered flannel from PM today. So soft and absorbing:

“Must not take our foot off the throat of the beast”


Q. How are you going to mass test 40% of the population who are in Tier 3?

Bojo: “Through real spirit in the community”
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Maringer
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Quoted from Stadium


To be fair, it's probably more the fact that this chap is a former Army captain that got his company the gig than any friendship with Hancock. On the other hand, with this government, perhaps not.

Slightly concerning that that AstraZeneca/Oxford have screwed the pooch a bit with their initial publicity of the efficacy of their vaccine. A member-up with the dosage in part of the trial which probably shows it is more effective than two full doses, but then perhaps not as it is within the error bars of the calculations. All this at the same time of a claim of the possibility of 90% efficacy but this was just in the low-dose sub group who were all under 55 years in age. Muddies this waters a bit, especially for the older and more vulnerable. The anti-vaxxers will jump on any opportunity to discredit the virus, as will the Yanks who are backing their boys despite the massively greater cost and supply constraints. Hopefully, more convincing data will emerge as this vaccine is the one most of us are likely to get. Even if the efficacy is 'only' around 70%, that should be good enough to shut down the pandemic to a large degree, especially if it also reduces the chance of severe illness by as much or more.
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