Pre Match Interview

Quoted from pontoonlew

I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Can anyone remember the last time we won from 2 goals down?

Quoted from GrimRob

I think he is confusing cause and effect. The difference between an xG and a goal is the player with the ball. If you look at xG data in nearly any division (you can see the averaged stats for most top leagues on the Fishy) you will find that the top sides score more than their xG and the bottom sides score less.

On the flip side, the top sides concede less than their xGA (expected goals against) and the bottom sides concede more. The cause is the top sides have good players; the bottom sides have bad players. The effect is the xG behaves the way it does. Consequently, if you score less than your xG and concede more than your xGA, it just means that you are a bottom side and don't have very good players. It doesn't mean that you are unlucky, not this deep into the season.

By way of an example. look at this season's La Liga which I pick because there is a very wide gap between the top and the bottom in terms of quality so it's a clearer pattern.

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=31&tab=tab-xg

Real Madrid have an average xG of 1.87 and score 2.12 goals; their xGA is 0.93 and they concede 0.64. So they have good players! The put away their chances more than they "should" and make "worldie" saves and blocks.

In second place Girona are punching well above their weight. They are exceeding their xG by 0.44. That probably means they have very good strikers.

Barcelona though are scoring less than their expected goals, and are third. Bad season for them.

At the bottom, it's the mirror image. Almeria score -0.35 less than expected as they are not putting away their chances. Almost all the bottom 10 score less than they are expected to.

Look at most divisions and a similar pattern emerges.

Cause not effect.

Quoted from Abdul19

Was it Accrington in 2010?

Quoted from moosey_club

Absolutely spot on. Furthermore i imagine data and stats would show an individuals xg similarly. ..we all know it as a gut feeling that when player x goes through on goal you  know its going in...player y and you aren't confident at all......trouble is all the info DA gives may be true but if our chances are going to player y then there is no point....you need to identify player x and play to make sure he is the one getting through

Quoted from moosey_club

Absolutely spot on. Furthermore i imagine data and stats would show an individuals xg similarly. ..we all know it as a gut feeling that when player x goes through on goal you  know its going in...player y and you aren't confident at all......trouble is all the info DA gives may be true but if our chances are going to player y then there is no point....you need to identify player x and play to make sure he is the one getting through

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

You are right of course and like all data it depends on context. Context is everything. It is so complex and every single event in a football match depends on so many factors to try to distill it and ever come to the right conclusion using data seems ludicrous. Already on this thread people have given various explanations to explain various possible explanations for expected goals, which is far more complex than that simple stat suggests.

As Chaos suggests, the manager and coaches should get their heads out of the spreadsheets and start doing the basics and get the team set up correctly and get the players to have some fight and self respect and stop hiding behind data that can be spun any way you like.