Pre Match Interview

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

I’m not being indecisive, just can’t make up my mind whether we have crap players playing crap or underperforming good players. Or simply confused players with a manager trying to introduce new ideas.

I keep going back to Bradford City away when for a fleeting moment we were in second place in the league. Frustrating ain’t it?

Anyway I hope my data shows a comfortable away victory tomorrow….at least I’ll be there with an objective pal who supports Huddersfield Town. I can rely on his assessment whatever the result.

Funnily enough, that game was 6 weeks before Hurst got sacked. And when he got sacked we were told that the decision was being considered for the last 6 weeks.

I mean Jesus wept - I don’t care about a marginal improvement in the XG data. I’ve got eyes and I understand football. Teams stroll into our box unopposed week after week and score. We have players  who can’t defend and are getting no better at it, players who can’t control a ball, don’t look organised or especially interested. It’s basic, basic stuff. You have to defend properly. Unless we stop conceding goals so readily then we’re dead. None of the other stats don’t matter a sh1t. FFS people aren’t stupid. We lose games easily. We get turned over in the first 15 minutes and it’s game over. Our home form is appalling. We’re delighted if we scrape a 0-0 away. We're miles off competing in L2 and we’ve got more resource than half of the division.

I’m not having it. I’m not buying the flim flam. Do things properly. Do the basics. Defend. Expected goals matter f•ck all. Actual goals and results count.  Goals against are what matters now and we’ve been getting worse. Please treat the supporters with respect, get real and actually manage the team properly instead of blithering on like you’re managing Ajax on FIFA 24 on a YouTube channel. Sick of it.
Actions speak louder than words David. You’re astonishingly lucky to still be here, managing tomorrow. Deliver something tangible and stop patronising and humiliating us all.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

The fact Doncaster scored 5, despite their xG being less than 0.5 last week tells you everything you need to know about us and that metric. Stop overcomplicating it.

I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.

Yeah, it’s just a 10 game freak.

Quoted from pontoonlew

I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.

It just means either our shooting is not good enough, or opposition keepers are better shot stoppers or a combination of both. If it doesn't go in, it doesn’t count.

Quoted from chaos33

Yeah, it’s just a 10 game freak.

10 games? Artell has been here 11 games and the consensus was that MK, Newport, Crewe, Salford & Accrington were good performances, so let’s not re-write history

I think he is confusing cause and effect. The difference between an xG and a goal is the player with the ball. If you look at xG data in nearly any division (you can see the averaged stats for most top leagues on the Fishy) you will find that the top sides score more than their xG and the bottom sides score less.

On the flip side, the top sides concede less than their xGA (expected goals against) and the bottom sides concede more. The cause is the top sides have good players; the bottom sides have bad players. The effect is the xG behaves the way it does. Consequently, if you score less than your xG and concede more than your xGA, it just means that you are a bottom side and don't have very good players. It doesn't mean that you are unlucky, not this deep into the season.

By way of an example. look at this season's La Liga which I pick because there is a very wide gap between the top and the bottom in terms of quality so it's a clearer pattern.

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=31&tab=tab-xg

Real Madrid have an average xG of 1.87 and score 2.12 goals; their xGA is 0.93 and they concede 0.64. So they have good players! The put away their chances more than they "should" and make "worldie" saves and blocks.

In second place Girona are punching well above their weight. They are exceeding their xG by 0.44. That probably means they have very good strikers.

Barcelona though are scoring less than their expected goals, and are third. Bad season for them.

At the bottom, it's the mirror image. Almeria score -0.35 less than expected as they are not putting away their chances. Almost all the bottom 10 score less than they are expected to.

Look at most divisions and a similar pattern emerges.

Cause not effect.

More BS from DA.

His point that against Stockport and Donny that we were the better team in the first half ignores the reason why that might be true…

If you are away and go 2-0 up in 14 / 8 minutes it is perfectly natural to sit back and attempt to keep it tight and maybe hit the home team on the counter attack.

If you’re 2-0 down at home after less than quarter of an hour all subsequent stats are irrelevant.

Here’s some stats/data…

If a team goes 2 goals up in a match in the first half they are about 74% likely to win and only around 2% likely to lose the match.

So once we’re 2-0 down the game is almost certainly gone and the chance of winning is virtually non existent.

Can anyone remember the last time we won from 2 goals down?

Quoted from pen penfras

Funnily enough, that game was 6 weeks before Hurst got sacked. And when he got sacked we were told that the decision was being considered for the last 6 weeks.

You have said this a few times now and I do have to agree with you, it is strange.

Not me agreeing with you! The timescales.

x

Quoted from pontoonlew

10 games? Artell has been here 11 games and the consensus was that MK, Newport, Crewe, Salford & Accrington were good performances, so let’s not re-write history

If you’re going to be pedantic, it’s 13 including the Oxford cup game.