Ukraine War

Quoted from KingstonMariner

That tweet has disappeared now. Didn’t get a screenshot did you?

this was the gist of it  https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-state-tv-putin-abroadcasting-criticism-war/

Alyukov has backtracked a little (would be interesting to know why) but his point was that the programme is pre recorded, so would be easy to edit out criticism. The fact that it was allowed to be shown suggested that the Putin was just seeing what public reaction would be if the idea was aired .This is much the same as our Government does, when a tory MP is encouraged to put forward some idea that is being entertained in government , which they don't want to put their name to, but do want to find out public reaction to the idea

interesting piece here - fingers crossed 'Karl' is right in his assessment  https://newlinesmag.com/argument/putins-worsening-problems/

and more here

Quoted from forza ivano

this was the gist of it  https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-state-tv-putin-abroadcasting-criticism-war/

Alyukov has backtracked a little (would be interesting to know why) but his point was that the programme is pre recorded, so would be easy to edit out criticism. The fact that it was allowed to be shown suggested that the Putin was just seeing what public reaction would be if the idea was aired .This is much the same as our Government does, when a tory MP is encouraged to put forward some idea that is being entertained in government , which they don't want to put their name to, but do want to find out public reaction to the idea

interesting piece here - fingers crossed 'Karl' is right in his assessment  https://newlinesmag.com/argument/putins-worsening-problems/

and more here

Tweet 1503340301112467456 will appear here...

Cheers FI. Hope ‘Karl’ is right.

The more I read about it the more I find it hard to believe the Russians have been so corrupt and incompetent*. I’m worried that it’s a lot of wishful thinking plus a big dollop of fake news from the Ukrainians. But there seems to be enough independent verification to suggest it’s not that far off the mark. It’s a good job for the Russians that they have nukes! It’s almost a come and get me ploy - do they think they can win a nuclear war with hypersonic missiles giving them a great first strike capability?

* they’ve got form for it throughout their history. But they always seem to pull through.

I’m sure at some point there’ll be a declaration that they have “destroyed 20,000 Fascists” and that they can conclude the operation as a success.

Cheers forward that was interesting. Like Kingston I just hope Karl is right and not letting sentiment cloud his judgment. Fingers crossed.

There does seem to be a something very wrong with the Russian war machine, whether it is internal corruption, a complete under estimation of the Ukraine defensive capabilities or an unwillingness to be ruthless enough to use the force and armament necessary or any combination of these and other reasons, it does however appear that they are intent on cutting Ukraine off from the Black sea which would make Ukraine a land locked country. Zelensky seems to have accepted that Ukraine will not become part of NATO and both sides seem more positive in peace talks. Hopefully an end to the conflict will come soon. It is difficult to see what either side will have gained, Ukraine will have lost more territory and knows Russia will play the long game 're asserting its influence (you only have to look at the UK to see how easily politicians accept a bit of cash for a favourable ear) . However it will have gained integrity as a country completely independent of Russian influence. Russia has seen its currency devalued, mass sanctions and been embarrassed by its military incompetence. it has perhaps seen the end of Putin's dream of rebuilding the old Soviet Union. However it has shown NATO that it will allow no further encroachment. Whichever side holds the damaged cities in the end faces massive rebuilding costs
This war has brought up many things and we could see many shifts because of it, firstly sanctions and the power this gives the USA because world business is conducted mostly in dollars as the default currency.  Russia wants to be able to pay its debts in Roubles or Yuan because it's reserves in dollars are frozen.  China is against sanctions as a weapon, mainly because they may be next and it is a one sided weapon. Saudi Arabia who are also possible candidates for sanctions are contemplating allowing payment in Yuan for their oil. This would a seismic shift and indicates the growing power of the eastern market. We have for years sent manufacturing over there for cheapness and are now reaping the results.
Secondly the reliance on fossil fuels, there may be sanctions but Russia's biggest export is oil and gas and the reality is half of Europe are now lost without it. This and also the dangers of global warming mean alternative energy sources need fast tracking . The US is in such a panic about rising fuel costs for their car addicted population that they even went to ask Maduro( a man with a $15m US bounty on his head)in Venezuela for help and are in The process of asking a nation that murdered one of it's citizens in their embassy for more output. Our own PM is also going to be for more oil to keep prices down despite a war in Yemen with uncanny parallels to Ukraine.
The power of the internet, there is no doubt that the big American companies have a massive and growing influence on the narrative and availability of any content. We claim we have free speech but ban any other station not portraying the same events from a different perspective, Facebook are quite happy to give space to the fascist Azov militia but not to state Russian tv or radio( unless of course it is a woman bravely making a protest that suits their agenda in it.) China and most of the rest of Asia are seeing this and will look to control it further
Military hardware, we are seeing the end of the tank as an effective force and to a lesser extent the helicopter  the big winners have been Turkish drones and uk/Swedish NLAWs,  The drones have been devastating and the NLAWs do the same job as the US Javelin need only one man and are less than a quarter of the price.We are in the process of commissioning a new tank , if it cannot withstand a drone strike it will be a complete waste of money.
Political donations, Russian money has washed through Westminster and the whole lobbying  system needs a thorough rethink.  No one gives money with the expectation of nothing in return, we even had a Russian firm getting a £2 million contract to change the press room (shelved for now) in Downing Street. We have an Oligarch and son of a KGB officer in the House of Lords. Something is very wrong, we are becoming more and more corrupt as a country.. If politicians can be bought by foreign powers then they are traitors and should be locked up. Will anything change? I won't hold my breath, it's too hard for some to get their nose out of the trough

Quoted from codcheeky

There does seem to be a something very wrong with the Russian war machine, whether it is internal corruption, a complete under estimation of the Ukraine defensive capabilities or an unwillingness to be ruthless enough to use the force and armament necessary or any combination of these and other reasons, it does however appear that they are intent on cutting Ukraine off from the Black sea which would make Ukraine a land locked country. Zelensky seems to have accepted that Ukraine will not become part of NATO and both sides seem more positive in peace talks. Hopefully an end to the conflict will come soon. It is difficult to see what either side will have gained, Ukraine will have lost more territory and knows Russia will play the long game 're asserting its influence (you only have to look at the UK to see how easily politicians accept a bit of cash for a favourable ear) . However it will have gained integrity as a country completely independent of Russian influence. Russia has seen its currency devalued, mass sanctions and been embarrassed by its military incompetence. it has perhaps seen the end of Putin's dream of rebuilding the old Soviet Union. However it has shown NATO that it will allow no further encroachment. Whichever side holds the damaged cities in the end faces massive rebuilding costs
This war has brought up many things and we could see many shifts because of it, firstly sanctions and the power this gives the USA because world business is conducted mostly in dollars as the default currency.  Russia wants to be able to pay its debts in Roubles or Yuan because it's reserves in dollars are frozen.  China is against sanctions as a weapon, mainly because they may be next and it is a one sided weapon. Saudi Arabia who are also possible candidates for sanctions are contemplating allowing payment in Yuan for their oil. This would a seismic shift and indicates the growing power of the eastern market. We have for years sent manufacturing over there for cheapness and are now reaping the results.
Secondly the reliance on fossil fuels, there may be sanctions but Russia's biggest export is oil and gas and the reality is half of Europe are now lost without it. This and also the dangers of global warming mean alternative energy sources need fast tracking . The US is in such a panic about rising fuel costs for their car addicted population that they even went to ask Maduro( a man with a $15m US bounty on his head)in Venezuela for help and are in The process of asking a nation that murdered one of it's citizens in their embassy for more output. Our own PM is also going to be for more oil to keep prices down despite a war in Yemen with uncanny parallels to Ukraine.
The power of the internet, there is no doubt that the big American companies have a massive and growing influence on the narrative and availability of any content. We claim we have free speech but ban any other station not portraying the same events from a different perspective, Facebook are quite happy to give space to the fascist Azov militia but not to state Russian tv or radio( unless of course it is a woman bravely making a protest that suits their agenda in it.) China and most of the rest of Asia are seeing this and will look to control it further
Military hardware, we are seeing the end of the tank as an effective force and to a lesser extent the helicopter  the big winners have been Turkish drones and uk/Swedish NLAWs,  The drones have been devastating and the NLAWs do the same job as the US Javelin need only one man and are less than a quarter of the price.We are in the process of commissioning a new tank , if it cannot withstand a drone strike it will be a complete waste of money.
Political donations, Russian money has washed through Westminster and the whole lobbying  system needs a thorough rethink.  No one gives money with the expectation of nothing in return, we even had a Russian firm getting a £2 million contract to change the press room (shelved for now) in Downing Street. We have an Oligarch and son of a KGB officer in the House of Lords. Something is very wrong, we are becoming more and more corrupt as a country.. If politicians can be bought by foreign powers then they are traitors and should be locked up. Will anything change? I won't hold my breath, it's too hard for some to get their nose out of the trough

some good points in there and, for me, what makes this conflict so vital, as there are so many strands to it.
i think the big one is that we will hopefully see the 'enicirclement' of Belarussia/Russia/China/Iran by a loose alliance of the free/democratic world.

there are signs of this happening already - we have NATO strengthened and the EU more united as a result. Finland and Sweden are teaming up, and are going to strengthen their armed forces, witht he distinct possibility that they will join NATO.
AUKUS was already in place and now we see Japan and South korea more willing to come 'on board' militarily. if you look at a map of the world , you will see what i mean.
India is a really interesting one as they have depended militarily on Russia for 50 years, so still need them in order to be able to resist Chinese aggression. However it's important to remember that India is a democracy, and Modhi won't be there forever

Then there is Turkey (vital to keep them on board - again theyre a democracy and Erdogan won't be there forever).
What happens to Georgia, Moldova & Armenia?
What will be the political fallout for the 'strong men' and right wingers who gave tacit support to Putin?
Hopefully we will not go back to 'business as usual' coz if we continue with the sanctions and the drive against Russian oil and gas we could hobble them for a generation. (Incidenatlly, this could be of benefit to the environment as there looks like there will be a rush to renewables, although there will be a short term problem with increasing the use of fossil fuels - increased venezuelan and Saudi production, more use of Polish/german coal and more exploitation of the North sea)
UK politics could become very interesting, because there are going to be some uncomfortable revelations, especially for the Tories

as they say this story will run and run!


BREAKING NEWS! - this just in

Quoted from forza ivano

some good points in there and, for me, what makes this conflict so vital, as there are so many strands to it.
i think the big one is that we will hopefully see the 'enicirclement' of Belarussia/Russia/China/Iran by a loose alliance of the free/democratic world.

there are signs of this happening already - we have NATO strengthened and the EU more united as a result. Finland and Sweden are teaming up, and are going to strengthen their armed forces, witht he distinct possibility that they will join NATO.
AUKUS was already in place and now we see Japan and South korea more willing to come 'on board' militarily. if you look at a map of the world , you will see what i mean.
India is a really interesting one as they have depended militarily on Russia for 50 years, so still need them in order to be able to resist Chinese aggression. However it's important to remember that India is a democracy, and Modhi won't be there forever

Then there is Turkey (vital to keep them on board - again theyre a democracy and Erdogan won't be there forever).
What happens to Georgia, Moldova & Armenia?
What will be the political fallout for the 'strong men' and right wingers who gave tacit support to Putin?
Hopefully we will not go back to 'business as usual' coz if we continue with the sanctions and the drive against Russian oil and gas we could hobble them for a generation. (Incidenatlly, this could be of benefit to the environment as there looks like there will be a rush to renewables, although there will be a short term problem with increasing the use of fossil fuels - increased venezuelan and Saudi production, more use of Polish/german coal and more exploitation of the North sea)
UK politics could become very interesting, because there are going to be some uncomfortable revelations, especially for the Tories

as they say this story will run and run!


BREAKING NEWS! - this just in

Tweet 1504030510875557891 will appear here...

One or two more negotiations and Ukraine could also get the NATO term removed! I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine have to give up some territory or have a "democratic" vote in those territories. Russia will feel they have to go back with something.

Also, who pays for the damage? I doubt Russia will be paying a rouble towards repairing their path of destruction.

In not entirely unrelated news, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is apparently being released after 6 years.

I suspect this is an indication that we'll pay the Iranians back for those Chieftain tanks which were never supplied following the revolution, sanctions will be loosened and Iranian oil will start to flow once again quite soon.

Hopefully, a peaceful solution can be found in Ukraine but Putin may have really screwed over the Russian economy in the longer-term.

Quoted from codcheeky

There does seem to be a something very wrong with the Russian war machine, whether it is internal corruption, a complete under estimation of the Ukraine defensive capabilities or an unwillingness to be ruthless enough to use the force and armament necessary or any combination of these and other reasons, it does however appear that they are intent on cutting Ukraine off from the Black sea which would make Ukraine a land locked country. Zelensky seems to have accepted that Ukraine will not become part of NATO and both sides seem more positive in peace talks. Hopefully an end to the conflict will come soon. It is difficult to see what either side will have gained, Ukraine will have lost more territory and knows Russia will play the long game 're asserting its influence (you only have to look at the UK to see how easily politicians accept a bit of cash for a favourable ear) . However it will have gained integrity as a country completely independent of Russian influence. Russia has seen its currency devalued, mass sanctions and been embarrassed by its military incompetence. it has perhaps seen the end of Putin's dream of rebuilding the old Soviet Union. However it has shown NATO that it will allow no further encroachment. Whichever side holds the damaged cities in the end faces massive rebuilding costs
This war has brought up many things and we could see many shifts because of it, firstly sanctions and the power this gives the USA because world business is conducted mostly in dollars as the default currency.  Russia wants to be able to pay its debts in Roubles or Yuan because it's reserves in dollars are frozen.  China is against sanctions as a weapon, mainly because they may be next and it is a one sided weapon. Saudi Arabia who are also possible candidates for sanctions are contemplating allowing payment in Yuan for their oil. This would a seismic shift and indicates the growing power of the eastern market. We have for years sent manufacturing over there for cheapness and are now reaping the results.
Secondly the reliance on fossil fuels, there may be sanctions but Russia's biggest export is oil and gas and the reality is half of Europe are now lost without it. This and also the dangers of global warming mean alternative energy sources need fast tracking . The US is in such a panic about rising fuel costs for their car addicted population that they even went to ask Maduro( a man with a $15m US bounty on his head)in Venezuela for help and are in The process of asking a nation that murdered one of it's citizens in their embassy for more output. Our own PM is also going to be for more oil to keep prices down despite a war in Yemen with uncanny parallels to Ukraine.
The power of the internet, there is no doubt that the big American companies have a massive and growing influence on the narrative and availability of any content. We claim we have free speech but ban any other station not portraying the same events from a different perspective, Facebook are quite happy to give space to the fascist Azov militia but not to state Russian tv or radio( unless of course it is a woman bravely making a protest that suits their agenda in it.) China and most of the rest of Asia are seeing this and will look to control it further
Military hardware, we are seeing the end of the tank as an effective force and to a lesser extent the helicopter  the big winners have been Turkish drones and uk/Swedish NLAWs,  The drones have been devastating and the NLAWs do the same job as the US Javelin need only one man and are less than a quarter of the price.We are in the process of commissioning a new tank , if it cannot withstand a drone strike it will be a complete waste of money.
Political donations, Russian money has washed through Westminster and the whole lobbying  system needs a thorough rethink.  No one gives money with the expectation of nothing in return, we even had a Russian firm getting a £2 million contract to change the press room (shelved for now) in Downing Street. We have an Oligarch and son of a KGB officer in the House of Lords. Something is very wrong, we are becoming more and more corrupt as a country.. If politicians can be bought by foreign powers then they are traitors and should be locked up. Will anything change? I won't hold my breath, it's too hard for some to get their nose out of the trough

Excellent summary!

Yep, a summary very hard to oppose. What we have to face is that this Conservative government have been in power for more than a decade and bear full responsibility for the very obvious sickening corruption that proliferates Londongrad, the appalling wash of laundered Russian blood money that props up this regime, and the stark reality that, as every day passes, the filthy charlatans that inhabit this cabinet have so much blood on their hands, that they have no option but to lie, and obfuscate and deflect to such an extent, that misleading and deceiving parliament is now absolutely the norm.

This is the most shameful, filthy, dishonourable and corrupt government this proud nation has ever had, and it contrasts all too starkly with the arresting and genuine compassion, generosity and love that the people of this nation have expressed and shown, through the great brexit con, Covid and now this horrible war. We are truly led by the least among us.
2000 Ukrainian refugees accepted, impossible barriers for war-fleeing innocent people, and 100,000 Britons, many of whom are facing an impossible and harrowing cost of living reality,  registered their willingness to offer these poor people, most of whom are women and children, a warm, safe and compassionate home on the FIRSt DAY, whilst Michael Gove bangs his fists in parliament and peddles yet more lies.. F@cking shame on them, and immense pride in the British public.

A fair summary cc.

Assuming this gets wrapped up along lines similar to what you’ve outlined, the next question is what do Sweden and Finland do next? Having a vote (and it will most likely need referenda) on joining NATO would have to be executed extremely rapidly to get in the club before Russia decides to act as they’ve threatened (although you have question Russia’s readiness after the current shitshow). If they opt not to go for membership it could be good for Putin’s home image as it will be presented as another bonus of the war in Ukraine. Russia therefore has a need to wrap up things in Ukraine quickly in order to be perceived as ready to act on the next ‘provocation’. That helps Ukraine’s deck of cards.