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Paul Hurst mk II - some statistics

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realist
October 11, 2023, 10:34am
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It won’t as we have retained the same useless manager. This is as good as it will get with Hurst
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Poojah
October 11, 2023, 10:35am
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Notwithstanding the fact that Ben Davies was a goal-scoring midfielder for the bulk of his career (he was 35 when he arrived here), for me our defensive shortcomings have been more prominent than our offensive ones. We have conceded 6 more goals than we had at the same point last season - an increase of 60%. That has to be statistically significant. Our “goals for” is identical, incidentally.

Anecdotally, results have been sub-par and there hasn’t been sufficient evidence in the accompanying performances to offer confidence that we are on the brink of clicking into a run of significant form. In mitigation, I still don’t think it’s unreasonable to point out that we’ve had a tougher run than average, playing 7 out of the current top 9 in our opening 12, plus, by the time Saturday arrives, 11, 12, 13 and 14.

Ultimately though, that has to even out eventually and with it has to come an upturn in results and performances. I said previously that the end of October seemed like a fair line in the sand to take stock of where we are. A trip to rapidly improving and second-placed Stockport a week-on-Saturday changes the complexion of this month somewhat, and so I’d be tempted to extend that period to, but not beyond, the 18th November by which time we’ll have played the entire current bottom 5.

Nostalgia doesn’t get you 3 points on a Saturday, but in Hurst we have a manager who has delivered great things, great memories, in recent times and who, more often than not, tends to turn around poor runs of form. That doesn’t give him an endless leash, but I think it should afford him additional time to right the team’s current glaring deficiencies. I believe he’s earned the right to that.

It’s impossible to argue that the start to the season has been good enough or close to expectations, even with those mitigating factors on board. And it’s impossible to argue that our summer recruitment looks faultless or fully rounded. But calm is needed; I don’t think for one second we are in grave danger - I do think things will become much clearer in the month or so ahead.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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GollyGTFC
October 11, 2023, 10:49am

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Quoted from Poojah
Notwithstanding the fact that Ben Davies was a goal-scoring midfielder for the bulk of his career (he was 35 when he arrived here), for me our defensive shortcomings have been more prominent than our offensive ones. We have conceded 6 more goals than we had at the same point last season - an increase of 60%. That has to be statistically significant. Our “goals for” is identical, incidentally.

Anecdotally, results have been sub-par and there hasn’t been sufficient evidence in the accompanying performances to offer confidence that we are on the brink of clicking into a run of significant form. In mitigation, I still don’t think it’s unreasonable to point out that we’ve had a tougher run than average, playing 7 out of the current top 9 in our opening 12, plus, by the time Saturday arrives, 11, 12, 13 and 14.

Ultimately though, that has to even out eventually and with it has to come an upturn in results and performances. I said previously that the end of October seemed like a fair line in the sand to take stock of where we are. A trip to rapidly improving and second-placed Stockport a week-on-Saturday changes the complexion of this month somewhat, and so I’d be tempted to extend that period to, but not beyond, the 18th November by which time we’ll have played the entire current bottom 5.

Nostalgia doesn’t get you 3 points on a Saturday, but in Hurst we have a manager who has delivered great things, great memories, in recent times and who, more often than not, tends to turn around poor runs of form. That doesn’t give him an endless leash, but I think it should afford him additional time to right the team’s current glaring deficiencies. I believe he’s earned the right to that.

It’s impossible to argue that the start to the season has been good enough or close to expectations, even with those mitigating factors on board. And it’s impossible to argue that our summer recruitment looks faultless or fully rounded. But calm is needed; I don’t think for one second we are in grave danger - I do think things will become much clearer in the month or so ahead.


Nice post… but I have a question…

Results (winning and drawing) and performances (overall team and individual players winning their battles with the player they line up opposite) are important, but do you find the football we are being subjected to entertaining?

Because I don’t. I find it negative.

I travel to BP with my dad and son. I woke up the morning of the Crawley game and I really didn’t want to go to the game.

For me winning and success are a bonus. Being entertained is a non-negotiable though.
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male private Johnson
October 11, 2023, 11:01am
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Just for balance a few months ago he got us our highest league finish for 16 years and our first FA Cup quarter final in 84 years, so he’s still got a fair amount of credit with me.
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denni266
October 11, 2023, 11:07am

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At last , People are starting to see what i see. For some reason the players are not doing it for hurst or hurst is not doing it for them whatever it is its not working is it.  Despite what people think i do not like to see anyone out of work  but lets face it he is not going to have to go bargain hunting through the cheap out of date food in bargain corer for many years to come is he. But i do think that fans make sacrifices so they can go to their fav fix . And an old age saying that if you continue to do the same you will get the same outcome every time . I dont know like most on here if a change of manager will make a difference but we cannot keep going on like we are as we are going down a slippery slope at the moment .. Stockwood and petitt  need to get their heads out of the papers and old buildings and start looking at what the product looks like that they are trying to sell, fans are already starting to slip away and will keep doing so if things stay as they are  
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IlkleyMariner
October 11, 2023, 11:29am
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It’s all very frustrating.
I’m sure everyone will be trying their best. Nobody likes failing.
Just can’t work out what they need to do differently to succeed.

First half v Bradford they were great.
Demolished in form Gillingham
Stuffed Salford

What was different about those two and a half games?
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Poojah
October 11, 2023, 11:44am
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Quoted from GollyGTFC


Nice post… but I have a question…

Results (winning and drawing) and performances (overall team and individual players winning their battles with the player they line up opposite) are important, but do you find the football we are being subjected to entertaining?

Because I don’t. I find it negative.

I travel to BP with my dad and son. I woke up the morning of the Crawley game and I really didn’t want to go to the game.

For me winning and success are a bonus. Being entertained is a non-negotiable though.


Honest answer? I enjoyed the Gillingham game - I thought we played well and were generally entertaining in that. Beyond that, I have to go back a long way, particularly if we’re talking home league games, where I can recall coming away feeling genuinely enthralled by what I had seen.

So you’re right, things haven’t been greatly entertaining, in the league at least, for a sustained period of time. At the same time, I don’t think there’s anything new and surprising about that.

Hurst sides are generally a decent watch when they’re frequently winning, and turgid as fúck when they’re not. The start to our 21/22 season was greatly entertaining. As was the end - you can’t describe those play-off games as anything but incredible. The middle part of that season, when we were losing game after game, was, by and large, awful to watch.

And so it goes. For the most part we were awful at home last season. The complexion of our home record last season was improved somewhat by wins at the tail end which were to all intents and purposes, dead rubbers. Quickly forgotten.

This season, we’ve not been able to string a decent set of results together and so performances haven’t been great either. Either the results come, and with it we see a meaningful elevation of performances, or we don’t and the conversation is no longer about how Hurst turns things around, but rather who does.

I’d like to think we won’t get to that point, but it has to be considered a real possibility that it might.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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buckstown
October 11, 2023, 11:54am
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It’s just possible that the reason all the teams we’ve played are in the top 9 is that they’ve played us. Every 3 points is key at this stage of the season
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Poojah
October 11, 2023, 11:59am
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Quoted from buckstown
It’s just possible that the reason all the teams we’ve played are in the top 9 is that they’ve played us. Every 3 points is key at this stage of the season


Each of them has won an additional 4 to 7 matches, so you can probably draw the conclusion that it’s not just that.

6 of those 9 likely will be right up there with the biggest spenders in the division, so that might be a factor worth considering.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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HerveJosse
October 11, 2023, 12:08pm
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Just for balance a few months ago he got us our highest league finish for 16 years and our first FA Cup quarter final in 84 years, so he’s still got a fair amount of credit with me.


He was manager for 10 of those 16 seasons and I find it difficult to give him to much credit for the FA cup run when the standout player in that was Orsi who he only gave 5 League starts to because he didn’t rate him
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