Coronavirus

Quoted from promotion plaice

Still looking weird for me.

Works OK on iPad but apparently not on computer. Weird.

Quoted from TheRonRaffertyFanClub

Works OK on iPad but apparently not on computer. Weird.

Now working  fine on my Chromebook  

I’m sorry - who ever was in charge would be getting pelters from all angles if they’d took the decisions this government has. We had two weeks notice on Italy and we’re on a steeper trajectory than them - and we’re yet to hit a peak with it not expected for a week or two yet. We’re going to be the worst hit in Europe and it’s poor governmental decisions that will have put us there. Wait for the inquest if you want but we’re 5-0 down before half time.

Quoted from Maringer

I'm surprised that so many here are defending the government's handling of the pandemic. When the likes of the Mail and the Telegraph have been critical, you know mistakes have been made.

I do find it amusing that some posters think nobody without a medical background should be able to criticise the response (should newspaper journalists also not be able to criticise?). When there is so much expert opinion and data available on the web if you're willing to do a bit of research, it sort of assumes that reading comprehension isn't a thing any longer.

That is fair enough. The problem arises though when people put forward expert opinion and data as gospel and use it as a hammer to make political points about yesterday that are not helpful to finding a solution today and tomorrow.

This morning’s press is voicing what many of us thought some days ago - what happens post lockdown? We dived into lockdown with big though not universal backing from the public and experts saying that everyone else was doing it so we should too. Now there is very little forthcoming from any country about a strategy when a lockdown is lifted. We are still all in the realms of dodgy computer modelling without accurate data whether in the U.K., USA, Italy ..... so quoting figures on here is about as daft as believing the ones in the Sun or Mail. There seems to be agreement that lockdown has had some effect but there are still no comprehensive statistics, just opinions and we take our pick which suit us. Apparently the herd idea is now back on the table here and abroad.

But there are future possibilities that ought to concern us. One statistic we do know is that the majority of accidents happen in the home with over 6000 deaths a year in normal circumstances. Most happen to the young and the elderly but also things like DIY contribute heavily, so mind that shed Ginny.

So what will all these people be doing this fine weekend while confined to barracks? Up ladders and on trampolines is a fair guess. If we have a long lockdown will we see a spike in emergency services needed in A&E? I don’t know. But that, along with the mental health aspects of confinement should surely come into play now and some relative assessments be begun.

Quoted from TheRonRaffertyFanClub

That is fair enough. The problem arises though when people put forward expert opinion and data as gospel and use it as a hammer to make political points about yesterday that are not helpful to finding a solution today and tomorrow.

This morning’s press is voicing what many of us thought some days ago - what happens post lockdown? We dived into lockdown with big though not universal backing from the public and experts saying that everyone else was doing it so we should too. Now there is very little forthcoming from any country about a strategy when a lockdown is lifted. We are still all in the realms of dodgy computer modelling without accurate data whether in the U.K., USA, Italy ..... so quoting figures on here is about as daft as believing the ones in the Sun or Mail. There seems to be agreement that lockdown has had some effect but there are still no comprehensive statistics, just opinions and we take our pick which suit us. Apparently the herd idea is now back on the table here and abroad.

But there are future possibilities that ought to concern us. One statistic we do know is that the majority of accidents happen in the home with over 6000 deaths a year in normal circumstances. Most happen to the young and the elderly but also things like DIY contribute heavily, so mind that shed Ginny.

So what will all these people be doing this fine weekend while confined to barracks? Up ladders and on trampolines is a fair guess. If we have a long lockdown will we see a spike in emergency services needed in A&E? I don’t know. But that, along with the mental health aspects of confinement should surely come into play now and some relative assessments be begun.

Perhaps you get more accidents in the home although I'm unsure where you've got your data from but my department has seen a huge drop in the amount of trauma we're dealing with, to the point where we're publishing a paper on it. Speaking to the other specialties who frequent A+E, they've also had a reduction in trauma and some have not had to operate for over a week. So no, it's unlikely you'd see a spike in A+E admissions, quite the opposite in fact.

The fact is no government know anything about this new virus and all of them are learning as we go along.

Maybe some countries have better experts than us, time will tell.

Quoted from mariner91

Perhaps you get more accidents in the home although I'm unsure where you've got your data from but my department has seen a huge drop in the amount of trauma we're dealing with, to the point where we're publishing a paper on it. Speaking to the other specialties who frequent A+E, they've also had a reduction in trauma and some have not had to operate for over a week. So no, it's unlikely you'd see a spike in A+E admissions, quite the opposite in fact.

The figure comes from RoSPA. I can't really see a reason to dispute their stats. Don't forget we are in the honeymoon period of lockdown, but as I said above, we need to be thinking about the results of a long term lockdown. If we get much beyond the end of this month with incarceration and restrictions then even the weekly clapping could start to drop off.

https://www.rospa.com/Home-Safety/Advice/General/Facts-and-Figures

Didn't the modelling suggest 250,000 to 500,000 deaths if we just carried on. A spike in isolation-based trampolining seems a risk worth taking.....

Quoted from Rodley Mariner

Didn't the modelling suggest 250,000 to 500,000 deaths if we just carried on. A spike in isolation-based trampolining seems a risk worth taking.....

I don’t know Rodley, did it? Largely irrelevant to the point I’m making about looking forward to potential decisions that may need to be weighed in the balance. If that situation really pertains in a few weeks then the trampoline clearly loses.

Regarding the question of how it ends, I think that we're going to have to pretty much write off 2020 as a year for having much fun. The way the disease spreads so easily means that it is going to be all but impossible to eradicate until a vaccine or treatment is available (or perhaps herd immunity occurs). I'd guess the initial lockdown will be 8 weeks, possibly with some restrictions lifted after 6 weeks. Expect one or two smaller 'waves', possibly after the summer.

I'd hope that any further lockdowns will be more limited in scope. The contract tracing and testing required to keep it in check (as in countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) show it can be done. I'd hope that the government is planning this now with serious thought about how it can be done and ample manpower and resources to ensure it is carried out as effectively as possible. Perhaps the antibody tests will work well enough that we can then ensure those doing the contact tracing should have little to fear for their own welfare? We'll hopefully have a lot more information available about the illness and the spread by then as well so further measures can be planned and implemented carefully.

I don't think the government's lack of clarity about how the lockdown will end was an error. Much better to leave it open ended at the start when it is most vital the spread is curtailed. If you're telling the public this could go on for months, I'm sure a lot of people would think sod it and be more lax, especially those in low risk groups.

We'll be better prepared for the next peak with more ventilators and hopefully one or two potential treatments to lessen the impact. The government had better be getting our manufacturers set up to produce PPE as well as that shouldn't be nearly as hard a task as building ventilators.