FGR Run In

Quoted from ska face

On the face of it, FGR have the hardest run in of the bottom 4. Looking at the average position of opponents, along with the average points difference between the teams (on today’s table), shows -

GTFC:
Average Position - 11.5
Average Pts Difference - 14.3 pts ahead of us

Colchester:
Average Position - 10.2
Average Pts Difference - 23.1 pts ahead of Col U

FGR:
Average Position - 7.5 (ooooof)
Average Pts Difference - 27.6 pts ahead of FGR

Sutton:
Average Position - 12th
Average Pts Difference - 23.5 pts ahead of Sutton

We all know what can happen on any given matchday, and there are a million different factors that come into it. Home v Away, oppo with nothing to play for, injuries, etc.

I’m still erring on the side of having soiled duds, but FGR will be looking at 1pt from three games against us, Col U & Sutton in the last 6 weeks and must be thinking they’ve made it much harder for themselves.

Sutton have the best run in but even just 1 point in our 2 in hand would put us 10 clear of them with 7 to play. A single win and we’re 12 clear with a much better GD.

Sutton’s marginally easier run-in (in terms of the average placement of their opponents) has to be offset by the fact they have 2 less games than us to accrue points. They’re currently 9 points behind us, with an inferior goal difference, with those two games less to play. They’re an irrelevance really; if we fall behind them from our current vantage, we’d absolutely deserve to go down. That won’t happen.

If we’re not already there, we’ll soon be entering “silly season” when it comes to unexpected results, but Forest Green’s run-in really is an absolute shocker. To have just 8 games left and to face the entire current top 5 (3 of those fixtures away) is just horrendous luck from their perspective. Their so-called easier games are against Donny (up next, and currently 2nd in the form table), Morecambe (likely still fighting for a play-off spot) and Notts County (a lot better than their current position). It’s a huge ask of a side that just lost at home to Sutton.

Colchester have an extra game on us, but also have all the top 4 to play, and it’s worth noting that it’s tight up there with 2nd, 3rd and 4th all currently on 67 points. They’re also bang out of form, having only won 1 game since Christmas, and that was back in January. Their game against us keeps things interesting, but they need to find some wins from somewhere.

It’s only 4 weeks since that Donny capitulation, but it seems like an age - it’s been so different since. The 10 points since then has made such a difference to our outlook, and I feel pretty relaxed about the situation tonight. I’ve followed Town for too long to proclaim we won’t go down, but completing the season at even half the rate of the last 6 should see us comfortably safe.

If FGR had played the top 5 teams already, their current points total now would probably be a lot lower.

Quoted from Heisenberg

Are you saying that Newport at home is a definite defeat then?

No. Of course not.

But I think the Swindon and Bradford games are more likely wins

Quoted from GrimRob

I ran the calculator and was not generous to us, we did ok, in fact we have enough points already in its forecast

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=4

21     Grimsby     46     -29     42
22     Colchester     46     -27     40
23     Forest Green     46     -34     36
24     Sutton Utd     46     -33     35

You think we will only get 3 points from our last 9 games???
And i thought I was a pessimist.

Despite their recent run of form, I think FGR are going down because Colchester have 2 more games and have a couple of slightly easier fixtures.

I also think that at least two of FGRs 4 recent wins were massively against the run of play according to the stats, and the fact that they lost at home to Sutton suggests that their current good run of results is not really sustainable, especially when you look at their remaining fixtures.

Ok, they got a couple of unexpected wins, against Walsall for example. But Walsall have gone off the boil recently and couldn't beat Colchester today.

I really do think they will do incredibly well to get 12 more points. So 45 points would be a pretty  outstanding total for them. So in my book we need seven points or six if there is not a huge goals diff turnaround.

So unless we have a major and sustained collapse I now believe that we will stay up.      

i might bump this thread on Saturday night if we've lost and the veggies an col u have picked up wins!!

would be quite happy for every game for the rest of this season was a turgid, chanceless, boring, awful 0-0 draw

If “form” counts for anything, we are the only Team unbeaten in the last 6 games, Colchester haven’t won in the last 6 games

Think 8 points should see us through, 10 and we relax.

Quoted from RonMariner

You think we will only get 3 points from our last 9 games???
And i thought I was a pessimist.

Think he was just trying to illustrate the point about the run-ins and worst case scenario.

aaSutton are adrift on points.  FGR play all the top teams.  We are above Colchester.  We have games in hand on Salford and Swindon.  Both teams are not picking up as many points as we are on current form.   Both are catchable and we have to play Swindon at home.

With our unbeaten run we should continue to look upwards and keep picking teams off.