Can we make the Playoffs? Some stats.

Ok, so we have clawed ourselves back into the top 7, but can we stay there?

Looking at the last three completed seasons in the National League, the team in 3rd have averaged 1.8 points per game, and 7th place 1.61. Given the 44 games available this season that would point to a range between 71 points and 79 points to end up in that area of the play off zone.

We currently have 55 points, so taking another 18 would give us 73 points. That might very well be enough to get a play off space.  So can we win another 6 games in our remaining fixtures?

We have five games against teams currently in the bottom six:  Weymouth (A), Kings Lynn (A), Barnet (A), Maidenhead (H) and Eastleigh (H). Teams at the bottom often put up stiff opposition, but we undoubtedly have the quality to beat these teams if we are up for it. I think we need to win four of these games, but anything over nine points would be pretty good.

We have two games against teams in mid table, Dagenham (H) and Torquay (H). If we are serious about getting into the playoffs then we must view these matches as probably out most winnable games in the run in.  

We also have matches against Chesterfield and Stockport which are very tough on paper and hard to see us getting much out of. Then we have what I consider to be the real six pointers, Boreham Wood (A) and Solihull (H). That latter game in particular could be critical. Beating them would make the remaining task much more achievable.

I think it is realistic to aim for 73 points given our remaining fixtures which, on recent evidence would be enough to get into the play offs.  Lot's of ifs and buts, but it is certainly achievable.

    

Forgot to mention Boreham Wood (H) which is yet to be rearranged. Another crucial six pointer.

Quoted from RonMariner

Ok, so we have clawed ourselves back into the top 7, but can we stay there?

Looking at the last three completed seasons in the National League, the team in 3rd have averaged 1.8 points per game, and 7th place 1.61. Given the 44 games available this season that would point to a range between 71 points and 79 points to end up in that area of the play off zone.

We currently have 55 points, so taking another 18 would give us 73 points. That might very well be enough to get a play off space.  So can we win another 6 games in our remaining fixtures?

We have five games against teams currently in the bottom six:  Weymouth (A), Kings Lynn (A), Barnet (A), Maidenhead (H) and Eastleigh (H). Teams at the bottom often put up stiff opposition, but we undoubtedly have the quality to beat these teams if we are up for it. I think we need to win four of these games, but anything over nine points would be pretty good.

We have two games against teams in mid table, Dagenham (H) and Torquay (H). If we are serious about getting into the playoffs then we must view these matches as probably out most winnable games in the run in.  

We also have matches against Chesterfield and Stockport which are very tough on paper and hard to see us getting much out of. Then we have what I consider to be the real six pointers, Boreham Wood (A) and Solihull (H). That latter game in particular could be critical. Beating them would make the remaining task much more achievable.

I think it is realistic to aim for 73 points given our remaining fixtures which, on recent evidence would be enough to get into the play offs.  Lot's of ifs and buts, but it is certainly achievable.

    

Think its Eastleigh away, last game.

We beat them 2-0 at home

Quoted from Hagrid

Think its Eastleigh away, last game.

We beat them 2-0 at home

Yes, well spotted.

Getting into the playoffs is one thing (probably in one of the last 2 places).   Having to then win 2 away matches against teams who finished higher than us is another thing.  Then there would be a Wembley match to win.

Yes we can make the playoffs and if we get there our chances are as good as anybody's.

Nobody has come close to giving us a hammering in the league and we do have match winners in the squad and we have Scannell and JMD raring to go.

We have a mixture of very winnable games and some tough ones but I hope the crowd continues to get behind us in even greater numbers and raise the volume.

Quoted from TownSNAFU5

Getting into the playoffs is one thing (probably in one of the last 2 places).   Having to then win 2 away matches against teams who finished higher than us is another thing.  Then there would be a Wembley match to win.

I agree. The play offs can be a bit of a lottery and games can hinge on a stroke of luck or a bad refereeing decision. But you have to be in it to win it.  

I've said this for a while if we're lucky with injuries we'll make the play offs, look at the bench yesterday despite some not having confidence in Hurst's recruitment on paper we have options and a bit if talent in the squad.

I've missed a few more games than usual this season so can't speak based upon watching every games but though at times we've been a bit flat or lost games by small margins I can't remember seeing us dominated or one particular player causing us trouble throughout a whole game.

All that said I hope for a strong finish to the season but still expect 2 of the 3 big spenders currently in the top 3 positions to get promoted.

I think we have enough about us to make the one legged games a tight and even affair. It's then a case of who gets the stroke of luck, moment of genius or misses in a penalty shootout.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

I think we have enough about us to make the one legged games a tight and even affair.

Seems like a novel idea, how do the players manage to keep their balance?

I was speaking to my brother yesterday and his first visit to Wembley was in 2015. He's 27 so would have been 20 then and our previous visits were the Trophy in 2013 (coldest day ever), MK Dons in 2008 and 2006 was at the Millenium Stadium.

So there is now another generation starved of success. With the increase in gates this season I would like to be more optimistic but Wembley is an expensive day out and the current cost of living crisis would make people think twice.

I am hopeful we can get into the playoffs. Personally don't think we quite have enough to be promoted though, but you never know.

Anyone know when the playoff final is please??

Quoted from TAGG

Anyone know when the playoff final is please??

5th June

Quoted from pizzzza

5th June

Cheers mate
Will book hotel

Forgive me if elsewhere on here, but is his how the playoffs work?

4th-7th playoff over one leg, with 4th and 5th having home advantage?, no replay just ET and pens?

The 2 winners then play the 2nd and 3rd place teams, over 2 legs home and away?  ET and pens if all square?, any additional benefit for away goals?

Quoted from lee65

Forgive me if elsewhere on here, but is his how the playoffs work?

4th-7th playoff over one leg, with 4th and 5th having home advantage?, no replay just ET and pens?

The 2 winners then play the 2nd and 3rd place teams, over 2 legs home and away?  ET and pens if all square?, any additional benefit for away goals?

Yes for the first stage 4th-7th but it's also 1 leg for the semi-final with 2nd and 3rd place having home advantage.

Thank you very much pizzza, well on our day I think we can beat anyone (certainly over one single game)  

Good work on the stats in the opening post Ron. Obviously I’m confident we can make the playoffs. Assuming we finish 6th or 7th we’ve then got two successive away matches against teams that have finished higher than us before the Wembley final. Whilst we can beat anyone on our day I think two successive wins against sides we’ve not done that well against, is probably just too far for us I reckon.

Still if we do the double over Borehamwood and beat Chesterfield/Solihull/Stockport in the run in the whole picture could be different.

Some things to note about the new style of play offs

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, one of the teams finishing 6th or 7th has won the first round match

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, a team finishing 4th or 5th has been in the final, there has only been one 2nd vs 3rd final

No team finishing 6th or 7th has yet made the final

The playoff winning positions have been 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th.

Still a small catchment however id definately prefer to be in the 4th/5th positions if we can manage it

Edit: just to add 7th place eastleigh came a penalty shootout away from the final

What id take from all this is that 3 out of 4 finals contained teams from the first round, having to play less games doesnt seem to benefit 2nd and 3rd a massive amount, so overall happy to be involved if we get to be

That’s pretty much what you would expect statistically Why…. Though it’s surprising that it’s worked out almost perfectly over such a short period of time.

Looking at the run it there definitely seems enough winnable fixtures to do it, personally I think we will end up in the low 70s which would be just enough to squeeze 7th place.

Quoted from WHYWONTYOULETMESIGNUP

Some things to note about the new style of play offs

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, one of the teams finishing 6th or 7th has won the first round match

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, a team finishing 4th or 5th has been in the final, there has only been one 2nd vs 3rd final

No team finishing 6th or 7th has yet made the final

The playoff winning positions have been 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th.

Still a small catchment however id definately prefer to be in the 4th/5th positions if we can manage it

Edit: just to add 7th place eastleigh came a penalty shootout away from the final

What id take from all this is that 3 out of 4 finals contained teams from the first round, having to play less games doesnt seem to benefit 2nd and 3rd a massive amount, so overall happy to be involved if we get to be

The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.

Quoted from pen penfras

The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.

Chesterfield wont. They’re bang average

Quoted from pen penfras

The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.

I came to that conclusion because a 2nd or 3rd place team loses the semi final nearly half of the time

In finals where it was 2nd/3rd vs 4th/5th, the outcome so far is 2/3, which is hard to really draw a conclusion from

Overall need a few more years to really have more meaningful stats

Just to add some (adverse) results for our rivals this weekend.  

Notts County lost at home to Wrexham, despite taking the lead. This was in the FA Trophy.

Solihull Moors lost 3-1 to Bromley in the trophy as well.  Both losses will not improve their confidence. 3 of our rivals are still in the trophy at the business end.  This is an added distraction for them.

That's the thing about the Trophy it's best to get knocked out straight away unless of course you go all the way to the final. Anything in between is a complete distraction (unlike the FA Cup which has lots of coin at every stage)

If we finish 6th or 7th looking at our away record on the whole I cannot see us winning 2 away games

Quoted from Norseman

If we finish 6th or 7th looking at our away record on the whole I cannot see us winning 2 away games

Perhaps. Personally I think a play-off finish in this league, immediately following relegation is a very decent result. Even more so given the fact that, in my opinion at least, this is the strongest non-league division in history.

Granted, if we finish 6th or 7th the odds are against us but the play-offs are the play-offs. Like him or not, we do have a manager with 7 seasons’ worth of play-off experience, which could well come in handy.

If we get to 5th or higher we will win the playoffs.  You heard it here first.

If (when) we play Chestefield or Wrexam away in play off semi final what will our allocation be? The same as it would have been for a league match, or higher like you get in an FA Cup away game?

Quoted from Grantham_Mariner

If (when) we play Chestefield or Wrexam away in play off semi final what will our allocation be? The same as it would have been for a league match, or higher like you get in an FA Cup away game?

The Chesterfield away game on 2nd April should give us an indication of what they may or may not give us in the play-offs.

Quoted from RonMariner

Ok, so we have clawed ourselves back into the top 7, but can we stay there?

Looking at the last three completed seasons in the National League, the team in 3rd have averaged 1.8 points per game, and 7th place 1.61. Given the 44 games available this season that would point to a range between 71 points and 79 points to end up in that area of the play off zone.

We currently have 55 points, so taking another 18 would give us 73 points. That might very well be enough to get a play off space.  So can we win another 6 games in our remaining fixtures?

You've considered points per game from previous seasons but not this one. 73 won't be close to enough to get in the play offs, it's going to be close to 80, which is utter madness. That means probably 7 wins minimum with a few draws.

Unfortunately, I think you are right. There is a chasm between the top teams and the rest of this league and they do not lose many games. I think seven wins in a couple of draws as well. What this means is that as well as beating the stuff below you we will need to beat some of Stockport ,Chesterfield and Borehamwood. I am very hopeful of the playoffs but it is going to need more than just the”flat track bully” points. I liked the look of our bench on Saturday and for the first time in awhile I’m beginning to fancy it.

Quoted from lee65

Forgive me if elsewhere on here, but is his how the playoffs work?

4th-7th playoff over one leg, with 4th and 5th having home advantage?, no replay just ET and pens?

The 2 winners then play the 2nd and 3rd place teams, over 2 legs home and away?  ET and pens if all square?, any additional benefit for away goals?

I get that 4 play at home to 7 and that 5 play at home to 6

Who do 2 and 3 then play at home to?

Is it 2 v 4 or 7 with 3 v 5 or 6

Or is it 2 v 5 or 6 with 3 at home to 4 or 7

Quoted from FishOutOfWater

Or is it 2 v 5 or 6 with 3 at home to 4 or 7

That one, I think. 2nd place then gets the benefit of finishing higher than 3rd place.

Quoted from Maringer

That one, I think. 2nd place then gets the benefit of finishing higher than 3rd place.

That's what I suspected....

I was trying to think back to the play off games I watched last season but couldn't remember them all.... getting old  

Format....

Quarter finals..

Match A : 4th v 7th
Match B : 5th v 6th

Semi finals...

2nd place v winner of Match B
3rd place v winner of Match A

All one-off games. Not sure if there is ET though or if it goes straight to pens if level at 90 mins,

Quoted from Les Brechin

Format....

Quarter finals..

Match A : 4th v 7th
Match B : 5th v 6th

Semi finals...

2nd place v winner of Match B
3rd place v winner of Match A

All one-off games. Not sure if there is ET though or if it goes straight to pens if level at 90 mins,

I believe it's extra time. The Championship and League 2 finish on 7th May but League 1 finishes a week earlier on 30th April.

Our league season finishes 15th May so we should get "better" referees for the play-offs shouldn't we?

Whilst it is something that will go against us (should we get there via any other place than 2nd or 3rd), this feels a much fairer approach to the play-offs.

Over two legs, I've never really thought there's any advantage to playing at home either first or second, even more so without the away goals rule.  So it seems slightly unfair that a team in the first play-off spot could finish absolutely miles ahead of the team in one of the final spots, yet have absolutely no advantage in the play-off games.  

Yes of course we can make the play offs. Stay positive everyone.

Quoted from DaleH

Yes of course we can make the play offs. Stay positive everyone.

I was thinking along those lines at half nine last night.... today I'm beginning to doubt my "wisdom"

Fingers crossed we can finish the season with a flourish and have a similar haul from the next ten games as we've just had from the previous ten

Seeing the reaction from the players at the end of the game yesterday though, it's going to need a massive injection of self-belief to see us through

As ever though, got to keep the faith...UTM

Understandably given Saturdays result there are many looking up the table to see who we might be able to catch.

To start with though, we should prioritise holding on to the play off place we currently occupy. As I see it we have two challengers for that position, Boreham Wood and Bromely.

Boreham have three games in hand are four points behind and have a goal diff 5 worse. They have a pretty tough game on Tuesday against Dagenham who can be quite a handful at home. They also have to play us at BP.  If we were to win that game it would mean that Boreham would have to match our other results and also win their three games in hand to overtake us. A tall order, especially if they drop points tomorrow. So it's in our hand to see them off.

Bromley are 8 points adrift with three games in hand and a goal diff 10 worse. They would have to match our results and also win all three games in hand in order to overtake us. That too looks a stiff target.

In the form we are currently in, 8 wins and 2 draws from the last 12, I don't think either of those two teams can catch us. But how high  might we finish?

We  have  8 game left, five of which we should be strong favourites to win; Maidenhead at Home, and Weymouth, Kings Lynn, Barnet and Eastleigh away.   Wining those would give us 77 points, which on past form would get us well into the playoff zone. The home games against Maidenhead and Boreham Woood are also very winnable. But lets say we have a off day in one of those games, an 80 point haul is far from impossible    Big ask, but that might just get us into the top three.

All speculation, but I have to say I am very confident that we can make the playoffs.

Boreham have to play Bromley too. So somethings got to give.

Quoted from RonMariner

Understandably given Saturdays result there are many looking up the table to see who we might be able to catch.

To start with though, we should prioritise holding on to the play off place we currently occupy. As I see it we have two challengers for that position, Boreham Wood and Bromely.

Boreham have three games in hand are four points behind and have a goal diff 5 worse. They have a pretty tough game on Tuesday against Dagenham who can be quite a handful at home. They also have to play us at BP.  If we were to win that game it would mean that Boreham would have to match our other results and also win their three games in hand to overtake us. A tall order, especially if they drop points tomorrow. So it's in our hand to see them off.

Bromley are 8 points adrift with three games in hand and a goal diff 10 worse. They would have to match our results and also win all three games in hand in order to overtake us. That too looks a stiff target.

In the form we are currently in, 8 wins and 2 draws from the last 12, I don't think either of those two teams can catch us. But how high  might we finish?

We  have  8 game left, five of which we should be strong favourites to win; Maidenhead at Home, and Weymouth, Kings Lynn, Barnet and Eastleigh away.   Wining those would give us 77 points, which on past form would get us well into the playoff zone. The home games against Maidenhead and Boreham Woood are also very winnable. But lets say we have a off day in one of those games, an 80 point haul is far from impossible    Big ask, but that might just get us into the top three.

All speculation, but I have to say I am very confident that we can make the playoffs.

I agree with all that and of course we are assuming the other playoff teams will continue to have good results but football can and does throw up some surprises. I think a lot of them play each other as well.

I am sure the players will be using the old adage of one game at a time but we obviously have a great chance with the excellent new signings and a nearly fully fit squad.

Quoted from Maringer

That one, I think. 2nd place then gets the benefit of finishing higher than 3rd place.

If 4th have an off day and 7th win, 3rd would be playing 7th and 2nd could be playing 5th in the semi. With 4th-7th likely to be separated by just a few points i think the benefit this season will be marginal at best

There are 2 less games this season, so the usual points tally needed to make the top 7 may be slightly lower than the norm.

That may be outweighed a bit by being probably the strongest this league has ever been. If we had this team in our last non league stint, I think we would be top 3 now, so that speaks to how well Hurst has built this squad.

Think it took him (and Shouty) a season and a half to get us at the top end of the league first time around.

Looking at the latest form, table, Boreham have taken just 4 points from their last 6 games, and Bromley just 2. So it's not looking likely that either are in the form to overtake us.

It may well be that the biggest threat might come from Dagenham. If they do indeed beat Boreham on Tuesday they would be 4 points behind us with the same games played and a broadly comparable goal difference.

Of the teams above us, Chesterfield have taken 6 points from their last 6 games. They are five points ahead, but we have a game in hand. On current form we could catch them.

We will make the playoffs, it’s a case of how high we finish

Quoted from supertown

We will make the playoffs, it’s a case of how high we finish

We should really be pushing for a home tie in the play-offs because it's not a season ticket game. 7000 tickets at £15 a head is £105k which isn't to be sniffed at.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

We should really be pushing for a home tie in the play-offs because it's not a season ticket game. 7000 tickets at £15 a head is £105k which isn't to be sniffed at.

Is the away team not entitled to anything with the new play off format? Don't they at least get the takings for the away following?

Quoted from toontown

Is the away team not entitled to anything with the new play off format? Don't they at least get the takings for the away following?

I don’t know the answer to that question, but instinctively I’d imagine it would work the same as FA Cup ties, i.e. both clubs share the net receipts.

LONG way to go before we start needing to worry about playoff gate receipts…

Notts county have a far easier run in than us .So I think the highest we could make is 6th

The only benefit to finishing 2nd/3rd is the fact you play less games.

I couldn’t care less where we finish, I don’t think it would make too much difference to us. We have proven that we can be excellent at home or away. We’ve also shown we can be awful at both so I’ll just take whatever comes at us.

Quoted from Norseman

Notts county have a far easier run in than us .So I think the highest we could make is 6th

Yep. After playing Torquay away on Saturday, the highest placed team they face is Altrincham in 15th, and every other game is against current bottom 5, including Dover twice (somehow).

That’s the run in of dreams. Our only hope is some serious complacency on their part, but it’s a big ask to expect us to pick up more points than them. More chance of us catching Chesterfield.

Quoted from aldi_01

The only benefit to finishing 2nd/3rd is the fact you play less games.

I couldn’t care less where we finish, I don’t think it would make too much difference to us. We have proven that we can be excellent at home or away. We’ve also shown we can be awful at both so I’ll just take whatever comes at us.

That’s a little bit of an oversimplification. Finish 7th and you have to win three consecutive games, two away followed by one on neutral territory. Finish second or third and you have to win a home game followed by a neutral final.

In pure odds terms that makes quite a difference. There’s an argument that the gap faced by teams finishing 2nd or 3rd loses momentum, but since the National League moved to a 7 team format in 2018 the teams promoted via the play-offs have been Salford (3) Harrogate (2) and Hartlepool (4), which suggests some advantage to a higher placed finish.

Still, I felt at the start of the season any kind of play-off finish would be a massive achievement under the circumstances so I’m with you when you say let’s just take it as it comes.

Notts County's form, allied to their very favourable run-in, makes catching them a nigh on impossibility I'd say. Forget catching them. If Chesterfield's form doesn't recover then we'll likely catch them, furthermore, Solihull have a relatively tricky run-in, especially compared to Notts and ourselves. Barring that home game to Stockport we've got a favourable set of games before the playoffs and given Bromley and BW now have mountains of games and both appeared to be running out of steam anyway, I don't see us finishing below them. Likewise, prior to beating a poor Wealdstone on Saturday, Halifax had started to show signs of maybe running out of steam. However unlikely, I wouldn't rule out catching them, or more likely, I wouldn't mind playing them in the playoffs. Think we owe them one after we inexplicably took only one point against them this season.

Instinctively, I think we need to get ourselves to at least 5th. I wouldn't hold out much hope of having to win at say Notts County on the Wednesday night and then have to go to win at Wrexham on the Saturday.

Quoted from Mariner_09

Notts County's form, allied to their very favourable run-in, makes catching them a nigh on impossibility I'd say. Forget catching them. If Chesterfield's form doesn't recover then we'll likely catch them, furthermore, Solihull have a relatively tricky run-in, especially compared to Notts and ourselves. Barring that home game to Stockport we've got a favourable set of games before the playoffs and given Bromley and BW now have mountains of games and both appeared to be running out of steam anyway, I don't see us finishing below them. Likewise, prior to beating a poor Wealdstone on Saturday, Halifax had started to show signs of maybe running out of steam. However unlikely, I wouldn't rule out catching them, or more likely, I wouldn't mind playing them in the playoffs. Think we owe them one after we inexplicably took only one point against them this season.

Instinctively, I think we need to get ourselves to at least 5th. I wouldn't hold out much hope of having to win at say Notts County on the Wednesday night and then have to go to win at Wrexham on the Saturday.

I think there is a distinct possibility that Paul Cook won't be Chesterfield manager by the end of the season.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

I think there is a distinct possibility that Paul Cook won't be Chesterfield manager by the end of the season.

Which is surprising, because I really rated him as a manager and thought he was quite a coup for Chesterfield, despite his lack of non-league experience which we all know by now is crucial.

It seems he’s made some basic errors, whilst also being a tad unfortunate in losing the league’s top striker to injury, so it now seems a realistic prospect he might go. Two sackings and three managers in a season doesn’t reek of promotion -  see Fulham, 1998.

Here's some stats... cos I'm sad (but love stats)

2010-2019 - 46 games per season - team finishing 7th is average of 73pts (haven't included last two seasons as they were disrupted/curtailed)

73 divided by 46 = 1.59pts per game

There are 44 games this season - 44 x 1.59 = 70pts

So - on average and historically - we need another 8 pts from a possible 24

That seems strangely low and almost unrealistic - but perhaps it highlights greater strength in depth with far fewer easy points these days?

Highest points total in those seasons finishing 7th was 76 (1.65 per game x 44 = 73); so we need 11pts from 24

I'm suddenly far more confident...

Think we are now capable of beating anyone home or away because we have added a couple of players that can score vital goals in Holohan and JMD, with Clifton also getting into goal scoring positions more, which is probably down to us having a better balanced midfield now.

Of course, we are also capable of losing home or away, but so is any team. Our record against the top end sides isn't great but none of them have looked way better than us. We have at least matched them all but not got what we deserved in some of them, mainly down to not taking our chances. The only side that have looked better than us to my mind is Solihull surprisingly, and I wouldn't want to have to go there and beat them, as they score a lot of goals at home. We have won at Notts and Chesterfield already and been the better side, so no fear there. We held our own at Wrexham too but that failure to nick a goal cost us. Same story at Halifax. We are a better side now though and in better form.

I'm hoping we can get to 5th spot and make the task of negotiating the play offs a bit more favourable. When we won them last time, we defied the odds as I think we were the only team to ever come back from a home leg loss to get to the final.

The new format leaves no room for error. You win or you are out, so it takes two or three good performances and we look to be in good form. Hope it continues.

Personally think we will need at least 80pts to guarantee 5th place and  84 to get even have a chance of 3rd place unless a lot of the top teams bomb.

We should go out to win every game. I’d be surprised if we don’t win at least 4 games plus a draw
Making 75 points.
Would not be surprised if we win 7, making 83 points, enough for 4th

Halifax v Solihull and Daggers v Borehamwood tonight, another couple of big ones. Relatively speaking

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

We should go out to win every game. I’d be surprised if we don’t win at least 4 games plus a draw
Making 75 points.
Would not be surprised if we win 7, making 83 points, enough for 4th

You wouldn't be surprised if we won 7 out of 8? Have you considered a lie down?

Quoted from devs

Here's some stats... cos I'm sad (but love stats)

2010-2019 - 46 games per season - team finishing 7th is average of 73pts (haven't included last two seasons as they were disrupted/curtailed)

73 divided by 46 = 1.59pts per game

There are 44 games this season - 44 x 1.59 = 70pts

So - on average and historically - we need another 8 pts from a possible 24

That seems strangely low and almost unrealistic - but perhaps it highlights greater strength in depth with far fewer easy points these days?

Highest points total in those seasons finishing 7th was 76 (1.65 per game x 44 = 73); so we need 11pts from 24

I'm suddenly far more confident...

Its getting all theoretical now... but surely we do not even have to match the 7th place average. 1 point more than the 8th place average total (whatever that is) would be enough.

Quoted from immariner

You wouldn't be surprised if we won 7 out of 8? Have you considered a lie down?

Not had a drink since yesterday but will raise a glass this evening if results go well

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

Not had a drink since yesterdaybut will raise a glass this evening if results go well

Worryingly you made that sound like an achievement 😬

Just had a quick play with the calculator, using the simple rule that current highest placed team in terms of PPG wins, with a 4 place handicap for the away team (so you do end up with a few draws for realism).

Now, obviously this isn’t perfect as it assumes the top sides do nothing silly against the also rans, but it does give you a sense of the theoretical difficulty of each side’s respective run ins. Ultimately, it’s good news for the likes of us and Notts County, but Boreham Wood in particular have a tough time ahead on paper. It also reaffirms that Chesterfield could drop.

On the basis of this, we’d need 81 points to guarantee a play-off place (without worrying about GD), another 19 points from a possible 24. That’s a tough ask; complicated by Notts County’s easy run-in some winnable games for Bromley in their final 11 matches. I reckon in reality, 2 or 3 points less than that would do - so perhaps another 16-17 points will be required. That would mean winning a minimum of 5 of our remaining 8 games (except for a scenario of 4 wins and 4 draws).

I’m still confident we will make it as we seem to be hitting form again at the right time, but it’s not going to be a cakewalk, and certainly not where a place that would give us a home tie is concerned.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/MDngknB/06504-B15-780-A-4-B58-8454-40-B5979-CE1-A2.jpg[/img]

I have us away at Solihull too.

The average points total for 7th is very consistent
Between 71-76 from 2010/11 to 2018/19
Outlier was 67pts in 2012/13

Based on history between 9-12pts should see us in the play offs; this of course implies we could lose a couple... but teams around us will as well

History doesn't lie - bit like batting/bowling averages - and is a good indicator of what is needed

Very confident we will make play offs

Quoted from devs

The average points total for 7th is very consistent
Between 71-76 from 2010/11 to 2018/19
Outlier was 67pts in 2012/13

Based on history between 9-12pts should see us in the play offs; this of course implies we could lose a couple... but teams around us will as well

History doesn't lie - bit like batting/bowling averages - and is a good indicator of what is needed

Very confident we will make play offs

What complicates matters is that Notts County have the easiest run-in imaginable and may very well not lose any of their remaining games, whilst Boreham Wood and Bromley both have an extra 9 points to play for to make up their 4 and 8 point deficit respectively.

Fortunately Boreham Wood have a difficult run-in and have to play 7 of the current top 10. From our perspective, our final home game against them could yet play out like a play-off game itself.

Bromley do have 8 points to catch-up on, which is a big ask,  but also a fair few games that they ought to win. They look the most unpredictable of the lot, but it’s helpful that they have to play Boreham Wood. We should keep ahead of them.

Clawing back sufficient ground on Solihull and Chesterfield is a big ask, though Chesterfield do have a tough run in whilst Solihull have four away games on the bounce, starting tonight. Three of them are against the current top 3 in Stockport, Halifax and Wrexham.

It’s all very nuanced, but I think the situation will be a lot clearer come the evening of Easter Monday. As things stand, I wouldn’t swap circumstances with anyone outside the top - possession is nine tenths of the law.

Quoted from MuddyWaters

I have us away at Solihull too.

Dear god no, that's the worst possible tie for me. Even worse than away at Wrexham.

Well we are in a play off spot now and don't have the hardest of run ins of the top 7, so no reason why we can't at least keep what we have.

The proviso being that despite our very good recent run, it's taken an age to climb a couple of spots, which tells you that the top 7 are all picking up plenty of points.

One team usually bombs at the end of the season and drops out. It's looking like Chesterfield at the moment if they don't get their act together.

Quoted from Son of Cod

Dear god no, that's the worst possible tie for me. Even worse than away at Wrexham.

It's only Solihull, but they were good weren't they?

Bromley lost again tonight. That's just 2 points from their last 7 games. I think they are fading fast.  Now 8 points behind with two games in hand an an inferior goal diff.

Our other main rival for a play off spot, Boreham, got a good point at Dagenham tonight, but they are only averaging a point game over the last seven games and of course we play them at BP. Depriving Dagenham of two points might not be a bad thing either, I though they might come in with a late run, but they are now 6 points behind us with no games in hand.

So tonight's results are good for us.  

The calculator is going to change every game. How many of the predictions were right tonight ? One , maybe 2 ?

Notts County may have a very easy run-in on paper.  As Bromley found out tonight, it is easy to lose against a team well below you. And if you are complacent in any way.

As an example that cost Leeds promotion, they were playing Wigan who were bottom.  Everybody expected Leeds to win.  Wigan went down to 10 men for most of the game at Elland Road - and then beat Leeds.

Quoted from RonMariner

Bromley lost again tonight. That's just 2 points from their last 7 games. I think they are fading fast.  Now 8 points behind with two games in hand an an inferior goal diff.

Our other main rival for a play off spot, Boreham, got a good point at Dagenham tonight, but they are only averaging a point game over the last seven games and of course we play them at BP. Depriving Dagenham of two points might not be a bad thing either, I though they might come in with a late run, but they are now 6 points behind us with no games in hand.

So tonight's results are good for us.  

Even better, the chase for a play-off place is entirely in our own hands now with Boreham Wood having to visit Town.

I think we'll finish 6th (above Chesterfield) but fairly comfortably in the play offs. THink Boreham Wood and Bromley will fade to be honest.

Quoted from fishboyUTM

It's only Solihull, but they were good weren't they?

Yeah, they've got pace to burn, tidy on the ball, bury their chances and seem to have a few different systems they switch between at random. They'll cause problems for anyone in the playoffs.

Quoted from Son of Cod

Yeah, they've got pace to burn, tidy on the ball, bury their chances and seem to have a few different systems they switch between at random. They'll cause problems for anyone in the playoffs.

I agree they were the most formidable we've seen at Blundell Park that I can recall this season, although we haven't played Stockport yet. I think that will be a true test of how good this 'new' team is...

Quoted from Son of Cod

Yeah, they've got pace to burn, tidy on the ball, bury their chances and seem to have a few different systems they switch between at random. They'll cause problems for anyone in the playoffs.

But we completely threw that away through a combination of injury and poor set up after their subs. In the same way as we we completely naive at their place. I’m not sure they were all that but on both occasions that we’ve played them we were not at the required standard. Was that a bit of complacency that we may have shown them but certainly did on Saturday?
Either way if we are on it, I’d expect us not to lose to them again, however good or otherwise they are.

A poster commenting on Notts County’s easy run in said they could win most of their games with him in goal!

I can’t find the post in question but was just wondering if the poster was in goal for them today😀

Quoted from RonMariner

A poster commenting on Notts County’s easy run in said they could win most of their games with him in goal!

I can’t find the post in question but was just wondering if the poster was in goal for them today😀

Indeed, that was me and no, I was not in goal for them today. Let’s be honest, irrespective of their run in, for Notts to drop their first choice ‘keeper and replace him with a 36 year old who hasn’t played football at any level for nearly 10 years, and even then never in goal, would be grossly unprofessional and neglectful on their part.

It would be like, oh I don’t know, putting a discredited former safety officer in charge of your property construction company.

Or making a dishonest journalist prime minister……

Or like the met police…..putting the foxes in charge of investigating the slaughter at the hen house ….

With Bromley continuing to drop points I think their challenge is fading fast. Boreham are hardly tearing up any trees either so it could be that our main threat for a playoff place will come from Dagenham.

There is no way of putting a positive spin on yesterday’s result though. Two points dropped. We continue to blow hot and cold. Though I think we will finish in the play off places, probably in 7th place, I just don’t see us stringing together three consecutive top draw performances to go up. In fact I can’t see us getting to the final.

Hope I am wrong. But my honest opinion is that we are doomed to play the Scunts next season.

Quoted from RonMariner

With Bromley continuing to drop points I think their challenge is fading fast. Boreham are hardly tearing up any trees either so it could be that our main threat for a playoff place will come from Dagenham.

There is no way of putting a positive spin on yesterday’s result though. Two points dropped. We continue to blow hot and cold. Though I think we will finish in the play off places, probably in 7th place, I just don’t see us stringing together three consecutive top draw performances to go up. In fact I can’t see us getting to the final.

Hope I am wrong. But my honest opinion is that we are doomed to play the Scunts next season.

I have always thought that getting to the playoffs would be extremely important in terms of keeping the feel good factor going for next season for a major push on season tickets and expectations.

We should then have the nucleus and momentum for a title push next season.

Anything might happen if we get into the playoffs- I agree the odds are stacked against us but getting there is the key for me. It's going to be tight - B Wood and Bromley may be fading but Dagenham and Torquay will be out to thwart us.

Quoted from RonMariner

Hope I am wrong. But my honest opinion is that we are doomed to play the Scunts next season.

Town's current odds of promotion are 33/1 so with all respect that isn't the most outlandish of intuitions mate. With Stockport or most likely Wrexham in the play offs plus very likely 2 away games just to get to the final, our realistic odds of promotion are fairly slim. I think people would do well to remember that right now to be honest. Very few teams have a decent crack at promotion first season after relegation because they're always in a fücking state and that's exactly how we ended up here AGAIN. For me, and I know many will disagree, the fact we're in with a chance for the play offs going into April is a decent effort and if we play more than 44 league games this year, ace, bring it on!

If the current placings continue, which could well happen then its:-

Solihull V Town winner away to Halifax

Chesterfield v Notts    winner away to Wrexham.

Quoted from immariner

Town's current odds of promotion are 33/1 so with all respect that isn't the most outlandish of intuitions mate. With Stockport or most likely Wrexham in the play offs plus very likely 2 away games just to get to the final, our realistic odds of promotion are fairly slim. I think people would do well to remember that right now to be honest. Very few teams have a decent crack at promotion first season after relegation because they're always in a fücking state and that's exactly how we ended up here AGAIN. For me, and I know many will disagree, the fact we're in with a chance for the play offs going into April is a decent effort and if we play more than 44 league games this year, ace, bring it on!

Not a bad bet TBH. I am very confident we will make the play offs and wouldn't imagine we will be 33/1 in a 6 horse race. Granted we will probably have 3 hurdles to jump (to continue with the horse racing analogy).

Fridays game will tell us how close we are to the standard we will face in the Play offs.

Stockport, Wrexham and Halifax are the top three and we would probably need to beat two of them, and one other play off contender, to go up.

Quoted from RonMariner

Fridays game will tell us how close we are to the standard we will face in the Play offs.

Stockport, Wrexham and Halifax are the top three and we would probably need to beat two of them, and one other play off contender, to go up.

Stockport have improved since we last played them and drew (but should have won) and it remains to be seen how much they have improved since. We will find out on Friday.

We have at least matched the two others in our games against them this season and I think we are now a better side with more goal threat. Respect them both but don't fear either in a one off game.