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Can we make the Playoffs? Some stats.

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KingstonMariner
March 13, 2022, 4:59pm
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That’s pretty much what you would expect statistically Why…. Though it’s surprising that it’s worked out almost perfectly over such a short period of time.


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Swansea_Mariner
March 13, 2022, 5:01pm
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Looking at the run it there definitely seems enough winnable fixtures to do it, personally I think we will end up in the low 70s which would be just enough to squeeze 7th place.
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pen penfras
March 13, 2022, 5:12pm

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Quoted from WHYWONTYOULETMESIGNUP
Some things to note about the new style of play offs

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, one of the teams finishing 6th or 7th has won the first round match

In 3 out of the 4 years so far, a team finishing 4th or 5th has been in the final, there has only been one 2nd vs 3rd final

No team finishing 6th or 7th has yet made the final

The playoff winning positions have been 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th.

Still a small catchment however id definately prefer to be in the 4th/5th positions if we can manage it

Edit: just to add 7th place eastleigh came a penalty shootout away from the final

What id take from all this is that 3 out of 4 finals contained teams from the first round, having to play less games doesnt seem to benefit 2nd and 3rd a massive amount, so overall happy to be involved if we get to be


The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.
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Hagrid
March 13, 2022, 5:17pm

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Quoted from pen penfras


The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.


Chesterfield wont. They’re bang average
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WHYWONTYOULETMESIGNUP
March 13, 2022, 5:23pm
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Quoted from pen penfras


The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd have won 3 out of the 4 playoffs. How do you conclude that it doesn't benefit them?

I think we'll probably get in the playoffs unless the wheels fall off again. Can't really see us winning because we don't score enough goals. Chesterfield and Wrexham have been far better than us and I expect one of those to win it.


I came to that conclusion because a 2nd or 3rd place team loses the semi final nearly half of the time

In finals where it was 2nd/3rd vs 4th/5th, the outcome so far is 2/3, which is hard to really draw a conclusion from

Overall need a few more years to really have more meaningful stats
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TownSNAFU5
March 13, 2022, 6:25pm
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Just to add some (adverse) results for our rivals this weekend.  

Notts County lost at home to Wrexham, despite taking the lead. This was in the FA Trophy.

Solihull Moors lost 3-1 to Bromley in the trophy as well.  Both losses will not improve their confidence. 3 of our rivals are still in the trophy at the business end.  This is an added distraction for them.
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Swansea_Mariner
March 13, 2022, 9:09pm
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That's the thing about the Trophy it's best to get knocked out straight away unless of course you go all the way to the final. Anything in between is a complete distraction (unlike the FA Cup which has lots of coin at every stage)
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Norseman
March 13, 2022, 10:57pm
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If we finish 6th or 7th looking at our away record on the whole I cannot see us winning 2 away games
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Poojah
March 13, 2022, 11:37pm
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Quoted from Norseman
If we finish 6th or 7th looking at our away record on the whole I cannot see us winning 2 away games


Perhaps. Personally I think a play-off finish in this league, immediately following relegation is a very decent result. Even more so given the fact that, in my opinion at least, this is the strongest non-league division in history.

Granted, if we finish 6th or 7th the odds are against us but the play-offs are the play-offs. Like him or not, we do have a manager with 7 seasons’ worth of play-off experience, which could well come in handy.


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Grantham_Mariner
March 14, 2022, 9:21am

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If we get to 5th or higher we will win the playoffs.  You heard it here first.


If the football is bad you can always watch the gulls.
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