Can we make the Playoffs? Some stats.

Quoted from RonMariner

Hope I am wrong. But my honest opinion is that we are doomed to play the Scunts next season.

Town's current odds of promotion are 33/1 so with all respect that isn't the most outlandish of intuitions mate. With Stockport or most likely Wrexham in the play offs plus very likely 2 away games just to get to the final, our realistic odds of promotion are fairly slim. I think people would do well to remember that right now to be honest. Very few teams have a decent crack at promotion first season after relegation because they're always in a fücking state and that's exactly how we ended up here AGAIN. For me, and I know many will disagree, the fact we're in with a chance for the play offs going into April is a decent effort and if we play more than 44 league games this year, ace, bring it on!

If the current placings continue, which could well happen then its:-

Solihull V Town winner away to Halifax

Chesterfield v Notts    winner away to Wrexham.

Quoted from immariner

Town's current odds of promotion are 33/1 so with all respect that isn't the most outlandish of intuitions mate. With Stockport or most likely Wrexham in the play offs plus very likely 2 away games just to get to the final, our realistic odds of promotion are fairly slim. I think people would do well to remember that right now to be honest. Very few teams have a decent crack at promotion first season after relegation because they're always in a fücking state and that's exactly how we ended up here AGAIN. For me, and I know many will disagree, the fact we're in with a chance for the play offs going into April is a decent effort and if we play more than 44 league games this year, ace, bring it on!

Not a bad bet TBH. I am very confident we will make the play offs and wouldn't imagine we will be 33/1 in a 6 horse race. Granted we will probably have 3 hurdles to jump (to continue with the horse racing analogy).

Fridays game will tell us how close we are to the standard we will face in the Play offs.

Stockport, Wrexham and Halifax are the top three and we would probably need to beat two of them, and one other play off contender, to go up.

Quoted from RonMariner

Fridays game will tell us how close we are to the standard we will face in the Play offs.

Stockport, Wrexham and Halifax are the top three and we would probably need to beat two of them, and one other play off contender, to go up.

Stockport have improved since we last played them and drew (but should have won) and it remains to be seen how much they have improved since. We will find out on Friday.

We have at least matched the two others in our games against them this season and I think we are now a better side with more goal threat. Respect them both but don't fear either in a one off game.

Quoted from RonMariner

Fridays game will tell us how close we are to the standard we will face in the Play offs.

Stockport, Wrexham and Halifax are the top three and we would probably need to beat two of them, and one other play off contender, to go up.

Sounds about right to me. Would prefer Wrexham in final, better chance of beating them than on there ground.

Quoted from Grantham_Mariner

Sounds about right to me. Would prefer Wrexham in final, better chance of beating them than on there ground.

Wrexham in the final would be a rare no pressure scenario for a non-league Town side. A play-off final appearance in our first season down here would be quite an achievement, as would reaching the play-offs in the first place.

They have the better team on paper, and some pretty disconcerting firepower, but it's the kind of occasion which turns matches into a proper 50/50 dust-up. It's the kind of scenario Hurst would savour, in my opinion.

So we have just beaten Chesterfield and Stockport, but couldn’t beat Weymouth. Makes it kinda hard to predict things doesn’t it.

Two weeks ago it looked like Boreham Wood and Bromley were the main dangers to our playoff chances, but now it looks like it’s Dagenham we need to keep our eye on.

Re-ran the calculator on the basis the team placed highest in the league wins, with a 4 position handicap for the away team. It certainly suggests that we should, on paper, be quite comfortable for the play-offs although this scenario would mean away trips to Solihull and Wrexham to make the final, neither of which I fancy.

It suggests we have the slightest sniff of getting a home tie in the first game, but my preferred scenario amongst those which are realistic would probably finish 7th with ties away to Notts County and Halifax. We may have only taken 4 points from 4 games against those two, but I saw nothing in them to fear.

I do reckon we’ll finish above Chesterfield though.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/X2bzHyL/195-B7869-0914-4-EBC-AEC1-0-B8744-CAC735.jpg[/img]

Quoted from RonMariner

I think it is realistic to aim for 73 points given our remaining fixtures which, on recent evidence would be enough to get into the play offs.  Lot's of ifs and buts, but it is certainly achievable.

    

We are now only 4 points away from OP's realistic target, which is great, however wow what a competetive top half this year