Bottom 4's Projected Points and Form

I've added home and away, I hope you didn't mind Diehardmariner.

FGR's run-in is

H Walsall (7th)
A Bradford (15th)
H Sutton (24th)
A Donny (20th)
H Stockport (2nd )
A Crewe (4th)
H MK Dons (5th)
A Mansfield (1st )
A Wrexham (3rd )
A Morecambe (8th)
H Notts County (14th)



Colchester's run in is

A Barrow (6th)
H Donny (20th)
H Walsall (7th)
A Mansfield (1st )
H Newport (12th)
A Tranmere (18th)
H Wrexham (3rd )
H Stockport (2nd )
A Crawley (11th)
H Town (21st)
A Notts County (14th)
H Crewe (4th)

Ours

A Sutton (24th)
H MK Dons (5th)
A Gillingham (9th)
H Wrexham (3rd )
A Barrow (6th)
H Bradford (15th)
A Harrogate (13th)
A Crewe (4th)
A Colchester (22nd)
H Swindon (17th)
A Crawley (11th)

Quoted from diehardmariner

I never get this be honest Rob.

The objective in a league format is simply to get more points than those you want to finish above.  How many points you get is irrelevant.  I'd rather stay up with 41 points than go down down with 55.  The only way anyone should and does go down is if they fail to get more points on the board than their rivals.  The amount of points in one season has no correlation to the points in other seasons..

Yes within the season itself but I am looking ahead. If we repeat this year's summer budget/recruitment then it's more likely than not that we'd be relegated.

And to anyone who regards this season as a one-off not to-be-repeated freak year, I would point out that we have spent nearly the whole of the last 20 years in the bottom 10 of League Two or the top 10 of the National League (and probably over half the time in a narrow band of about 10 league places). We even made a film about the 4th of the four transitions between these two divisions.

Quoted from GrimRob

Yes within the season itself but I am looking ahead. If we repeat this year's summer budget/recruitment then it's more likely than not that we'd be relegated.

And to anyone who regards this season as a one-off not to-be-repeated freak year, I would point out that we have spent nearly the whole of the last 20 years in the bottom 10 of League Two or the top 10 of the National League (and probably over half the time in a narrow band of about 10 league places). We even made a film about the 4th of the four transitions between these two divisions.

I don’t think anyone sees this as a freak year, do they? Unexpected, given our recent upward trajectory, but it’s certainly not a statistical anomaly.

If we can stay in League Two this season it does look a somewhat more “normal” division next season in terms of financial doping, especially if the current top 3 of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham go up. The current bottom four in League One are all fairly traditional at this level in recent times, with the exception of Fleetwood who are a non-league club seemingly about to re-find their level in the coming years.

Chesterfield are virtually up already, but we’re not going to see the kind of money Wrexham and Notts County brought up into the league last summer.

The new TV deal will level the playing field to some degree. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Town remains to be seen.

4/5 of the last games away for us is a slight concern - given we have only picked up 12 points away all season. With two games a week it could easily spiral one way or another: hopefully we have got some momentum for the rest of March so that we start the April run in with a decent buffer. That's my wish in any case..!

Quoted from Poojah

I don’t think anyone sees this as a freak year, do they? Unexpected, given our recent upward trajectory, but it’s certainly not a statistical anomaly.

If we can stay in League Two this season it does look a somewhat more “normal” division next season in terms of financial doping, especially if the current top 3 of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham go up. The current bottom four in League One are all fairly traditional at this level in recent times, with the exception of Fleetwood who are a non-league club seemingly about to re-find their level in the coming years.

Chesterfield are virtually up already, but we’re not going to see the kind of money Wrexham and Notts County brought up into the league last summer.

The new TV deal will level the playing field to some degree. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Town remains to be seen.

Forest green going down would be helpful too from that perspective as they are another bank rolled team, and them going out the other way would be a real bonus.

Not sure of the Colchester budget, their owner has poured tens of millions (35 mill in debt isn't it) into being a perennial league 2 struggler bizarrely. I assume he's turned the tap off to some degree hence why they don't have a groundsman? You would assume they are bigger spenders than Sutton though.

Quoted from Poojah

I don’t think anyone sees this as a freak year, do they? Unexpected, given our recent upward trajectory, but it’s certainly not a statistical anomaly.

If we can stay in League Two this season it does look a somewhat more “normal” division next season in terms of financial doping, especially if the current top 3 of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham go up. The current bottom four in League One are all fairly traditional at this level in recent times, with the exception of Fleetwood who are a non-league club seemingly about to re-find their level in the coming years.

Chesterfield are virtually up already, but we’re not going to see the kind of money Wrexham and Notts County brought up into the league last summer.

The new TV deal will level the playing field to some degree. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Town remains to be seen.

The TV deal won't level the playing field a great deal. Wages and/or transfer fees will undoubtedly increase, and if all the big spenders leave the division, another team or two will see it as an opportunity to throw more cash at promotion.

Artell was hired to play the "Grimsby Way" and part of the reason for Hurst going, was an inability to play the "Grimsby Way", so at some point the board are going to start judging Artell on his ability to get the team playing the "Grimsby Way."

Assuming we stay up, I am absolutely terrified about our summer recruitment and how we start next season, if Artell doesn't leave as part of the end of season post-mortem.

Quoted from Meza

I've added home and away, I hope you didn't mind Diehardmariner.

FGR's run-in is

H Walsall (7th)
A Bradford (15th)
H Sutton (24th)
A Donny (20th)
H Stockport (2nd )
A Crewe (4th)
H MK Dons (5th)
A Mansfield (1st )
A Wrexham (3rd )
A Morecambe (8th)
H Notts County (14th)



Colchester's run in is

A Barrow (6th)
H Donny (20th)
H Walsall (7th)
A Mansfield (1st )
H Newport (12th)
A Tranmere (18th)
H Wrexham (3rd )
H Stockport (2nd )
A Crawley (11th)
H Town (21st)
A Notts County (14th)
H Crewe (4th)

Ours

A Sutton (24th)
H MK Dons (5th)
A Gillingham (9th)
H Wrexham (3rd )
A Barrow (6th)
H Bradford (15th)
A Harrogate (13th)
A Crewe (4th)
A Colchester (22nd)
H Swindon (17th)
A Crawley (11th)

Me thinks, no I know that you have missed a game, as we have 12 games left to play, you missed the Newport game at home.

Quoted from Poojah

I don’t think anyone sees this as a freak year, do they? Unexpected, given our recent upward trajectory, but it’s certainly not a statistical anomaly.

If we can stay in League Two this season it does look a somewhat more “normal” division next season in terms of financial doping, especially if the current top 3 of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham go up. The current bottom four in League One are all fairly traditional at this level in recent times, with the exception of Fleetwood who are a non-league club seemingly about to re-find their level in the coming years.

Chesterfield are virtually up already, but we’re not going to see the kind of money Wrexham and Notts County brought up into the league last summer.

The new TV deal will level the playing field to some degree. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Town remains to be seen.

If Stockport, Mansfield and Wrexham go up I’d expect they would need to significantly cull their squads to add sufficient League one quality to compete at the top end of the league. That should free up a few more decent players at League 2 level.

Quoted from toontown

Forest green going down would be helpful too from that perspective as they are another bank rolled team, and them going out the other way would be a real bonus.

Not sure of the Colchester budget, their owner has poured tens of millions (35 mill in debt isn't it) into being a perennial league 2 struggler bizarrely. I assume he's turned the tap off to some degree hence why they don't have a groundsman? You would assume they are bigger spenders than Sutton though.

Interesting piece about Colchester, worth a read.
https://looksports.media/whats-going-wrong-at-colchester-united-opinion/

Quoted from Poojah

I don’t think anyone sees this as a freak year, do they? Unexpected, given our recent upward trajectory, but it’s certainly not a statistical anomaly.

If we can stay in League Two this season it does look a somewhat more “normal” division next season in terms of financial doping, especially if the current top 3 of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham go up. The current bottom four in League One are all fairly traditional at this level in recent times, with the exception of Fleetwood who are a non-league club seemingly about to re-find their level in the coming years.

Chesterfield are virtually up already, but we’re not going to see the kind of money Wrexham and Notts County brought up into the league last summer.

The new TV deal will level the playing field to some degree. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Town remains to be seen.

Ideally a Gateshead or Bromley come up with Chesterfield , they are not bankrolled and would be low hitters .

I think there will still be a few big hitters but obviously not to the extent to those leaving - Carlisle have wealthy new owners , MK Dons (if they don't go up ) Gillingham , Salford probably a few more besides .

Swindon look a basket case waiting to happen (actually I think they already are ) Barrow will probably lose Wild if they don't go up and not be as competitive ; Morecambe & Accrington want to break even at least - so there will be a chance for us to do better no doubt .

I don't think the new TV deal will make a difference in terms of giving less supported teams an advantage over the more well supported clubs - they will be still more well supported in terms of gate receipts even if it's slightly less than this season say if we average 5500 next season that would be about 800 down on this  but much higher than many in this league . I suppose you could argue away fans numbers might be well down , but that hardly effects us anyway as no one seems to travel well here .

I think the more interesting thing is - how do the clubs use the money ?

Are they literally going to all plough it into the playing budget?

Or will there be a disadvantage-  in that some use it on infrastructure costs and other off the field items whereas some just use it all and more on the playing side .