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Bottom 4's Projected Points and Form

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Azimuth
March 6, 2024, 2:10pm
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A lot can happen before the end of the season, until we are mathematically safe then I wont hold my breath, its a funny old game!
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diehardmariner
March 6, 2024, 2:10pm
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Same, it was only when looking at their fixtures (having seen a few people mention it was a tough run-in) that you appreciate the scale of it.

No easy games for anyone but I'd definitely prefer our run-in.  March looks very tough after Sutton but then April, again on paper, far easier.  4 of our final 6 are against teams who shouldn't have anything to play for at the same time FGR and Colchester are mainly playing promotion challenging sides.

Sutton (24th)
MK Dons (5th)
Gillingham (9th)
Wrexham (3rd )
Barrow (6th)
Bradford (15th)
Harrogate (13th)
Crewe (4th)
Colchester (22nd)
Swindon (17th)
Crawley (11th)

One thing I think definitely in FGR's favour is that Cotterill is very much a trench mentality type.  He'll be hammering home the 'us against the world' mantra to his players and such a challenging fixture list will play right into that.
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diehardmariner
March 6, 2024, 2:17pm
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Quoted from GrimRob
Staying up with low 40s points though is still a woeful season, if that's what happens and we should easily have gone down. Next season is going to be a total game changer with the crazy kick off times that have been imposed on fans. We need to get off to a better start.


I never get this be honest Rob.

The objective in a league format is simply to get more points than those you want to finish above.  How many points you get is irrelevant.  I'd rather stay up with 41 points than go down down with 55.  The only way anyone should and does go down is if they fail to get more points on the board than their rivals.  The amount of points in one season has no correlation to the points in other seasons.

Liverpool fans (and their not alone in this) cried when they finished second with 97 and 92 points respectively in recent season, owing to the fact that a points haul that big would be comfortably enough to win the league in any other season.  But it's not any other season, you didn't get as many points as the best team. Simple as.
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chaos33
March 6, 2024, 5:50pm
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Quoted from diehardmariner
FGR's run-in is horrific.  

Walsall (7th)
Bradford (15th)
Sutton (24th)
Donny (20th)
Stockport (2nd )
Crewe (4th)
MK Dons (5th)
Mansfield (1st )
Wrexham (3rd )
Morecambe (8th)
Notts County (14th)

Stockport right through to Morecambe is particularly bad.  For the final day County are only 7 points off the play-offs with a game in hand (same as Bradford next Tues.  Probably only the Donny game against someone with nothing, or very little, to play for.

Colchester only seem able to draw but they too aren't playing many who might already be on the beach.  Tranmere perhaps in addition to Donny.

Barrow (6th)
Donny (20th)
Walsall (7th)
Mansfield (1st )
Newport (12th)
Tranmere (18th)
Wrexham (3rd )
Stockport (2nd )
Crawley (11th)
Town (21st)
Notts County (14th)
Crewe (4th)

They get their bottom in gear and Sutton have got Accrington, Salford, Swindon, Harrogate and at that stage potentially Crawley who won't have anything to play for.

Of course football doesn't work out that way, especially at this time of year.


You could argue that Harrogate and Crawley still have 7th place to strive for; only being 5 points adrift as of today.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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Abdul19
March 6, 2024, 6:05pm

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Quoted from diehardmariner


I never get this be honest Rob.

The objective in a league format is simply to get more points than those you want to finish above.  How many points you get is irrelevant.  I'd rather stay up with 41 points than go down down with 55.  The only way anyone should and does go down is if they fail to get more points on the board than their rivals.  The amount of points in one season has no correlation to the points in other seasons.

Liverpool fans (and their not alone in this) cried when they finished second with 97 and 92 points respectively in recent season, owing to the fact that a points haul that big would be comfortably enough to win the league in any other season.  But it's not any other season, you didn't get as many points as the best team. Simple as.


Exactly, Man U's 1999 title win isn't invalid because they only got 79 points (unfortunately!)


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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forza ivano
March 6, 2024, 6:57pm

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I will just say, please don't get complacent - we don't win on Saturday and only get 1 or 2 points in the next 4 (tough) games and suddenly things aren't quite as clear cut
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IlkleyMariner
March 6, 2024, 7:09pm
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Beat Sutton and season over
Draw v Sutton and FGR lose to Walsall ……will need to keep on fighting for gruesome points
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Poojah
March 6, 2024, 7:27pm
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Quoted from IlkleyMariner
Beat Sutton and season over
Draw v Sutton and FGR lose to Walsall ……will need to keep on fighting for gruesome points


Personally, to declare ourselves “as good as safe” on Saturday evening, I’d be wanting a Town win coupled with a Forest Green defeat, and ideally a Colchester one too as an additional insurance policy.

Still, nice to be contemplating what looks by no means an impossible set of events when you consider that just over a week it looked like a FGR win was about to bring them within a point of us. Walsall are the league’s in-form side with 16 points from their last 18, while Colchester’s 650 mile return trip to 6th placed Barrow has to be a wholly unpalatable prospect for them.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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Heisenberg
March 6, 2024, 7:29pm
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Quoted from IlkleyMariner
Beat Sutton and season over
Draw v Sutton and FGR lose to Walsall ……will need to keep on fighting for gruesome points


If FGR lose against Walsall, I would take that point at Sutton and run with it.  Yes, the next 4 games in particular are hard, but we’re getting results somehow.

Funnily, I actually think the Harrogate game is gonna yield 3 points for us, for once. Just a feeling. But that is ages away…..

I’m not completely convinced that Wrexham will be a certain nil points either. There’s life in this old dog yet.

MK Dons have really picked up, but they don’t worry me either now. What a difference a week makes.
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Abdul19
March 6, 2024, 7:33pm

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Quoted from Heisenberg




I’m not completely convinced that Wrexham will be a certain nil points either. There’s life in this old dog yet.


Agreed, they've won 1 of their last 7 away games.


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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