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Bottom 4's Projected Points and Form

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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 6, 2024, 10:58am
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Here's some simplistic maths but it's indicative:

Points over the last 6 games:

GTFC: 6
CUFC: 7
FGR: 7
SUFC: 4

Points per game over the season as a whole:

GTFC: 1
CUFC: 0.94
FGR: 0.77
SUFC: 0.72

Projected points if teams continue to score points at current rate:

GTFC: 46 (12 games left)
CUFC: 43 (12)
FGR: 36 (11) - I'm being kind, it's really 35.5
SUFC: 33 (10)

37 points COULD be enough to avoid relegation this season, Sutton are all but gone already. My gut says it will be about 40. If we continue at a point per game we're golden. A win on Saturday means that we can afford 2 draws and 2 losses from the nightmare next 4 games after Sutton. And none of this takes into account our much better goal difference which is like an extra point right now.

Sutton and FGR have to play each other, we want a draw there. We have to play Sutton and Colchester - we want a win on Saturday v Sutton. We play Colchester in mid April and although it looks like a 'must win' it could be all over bar the shouting by then if Sutton and FGR don't pick up points in the intervening games.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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GrimRob
March 6, 2024, 11:18am

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Beat Sutton and we will be packing our bags for the beach, not quite on it.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
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LH
March 6, 2024, 11:28am

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Beat Sutton and if FGR lose to Walsall then we’d be all but safe. FGR aren’t making 10pts (11 with GD) up in 10 games Possibly mathematically safe by the time we’ve finished our Easter eggs.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 6, 2024, 11:32am
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Just an added thought -

When you take into account goal difference Sutton have to find 9 points and FGR 8 to go past us right now. Their PPG suggest they will only get 7 (Sutton) and 9 (FGR) for the rest of the season. Our PPG suggests we will get 12 more.

Sutton and FGR are close to needing snookers to relegate us and nearly as close with Colchester.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 6, 2024, 11:34am
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Quoted from LH
Beat Sutton and if FGR lose to Walsall then we’d be all but safe. FGR aren’t making 10pts (11 with GD) up in 10 games Possibly mathematically safe by the time we’ve finished our Easter eggs.


I want you to be right!


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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Hagrid
March 6, 2024, 11:40am

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I hope colchester drop tbh, soulless dump of a stadium, The Cowleys, and they're millions and millions in debt
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HertsGTFC
March 6, 2024, 11:44am

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Quoted from Hagrid
I hope colchester drop tbh, soulless dump of a stadium, The Cowleys, and they're millions and millions in debt


Same


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Marinerdeano
March 6, 2024, 11:50am
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There could be a scenario where we play Colchester with 2 games to go after that knowing that a draw would enable survival for both teams! Now if that would be the case that would be worth a big bet! In reality I'd hope we would be fine by then.
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Limerick Mariner
March 6, 2024, 11:51am
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Quoted from Hagrid
I hope colchester drop tbh, soulless dump of a stadium, The Cowleys, and they're millions and millions in debt


My preference would be Sutton to stay up but obviously conditional on their form improving only after Saturday.

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diehardmariner
March 6, 2024, 11:57am
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Quoted from LH
Beat Sutton and if FGR lose to Walsall then we’d be all but safe. FGR aren’t making 10pts (11 with GD) up in 10 games Possibly mathematically safe by the time we’ve finished our Easter eggs.


I dunno. They've been on sale for weeks now and I'll be completely honest, I tend to inhale them as opposed to actually eating them.
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