Paul hurst and the owners.

Quoted from Poojah

I believe it was Macho Man Randy Savage who said “there’s one guarantee in life, that’s that there are no guarantees”.

Quoted from Poojah

I believe it was Macho Man Randy Savage who said “there’s one guarantee in life, that’s that there are no guarantees”. There’s risk in every decision we take in life; some are merely fraught with more jeopardy than others.

There are many case studies in football where changing the manager has had a huge positive impact, and others where it’s made no difference at all (or even made things worse). The best way to approach situations like this, and I believe the approach the owners will take, is to take a step back, put emotions to one side, and work through a series of logical questions.

1) What issues appear to be at the heart of our poor performance?

a) insufficient budget?
b) insufficient supporting infrastructure?
c) lack of player calibre in squad?
d) lack of depth in squad?
e) ineffective tactics and systems?
f) lack of player motivation?
g) squad disharmony?

2) What is the probability that the incumbent manager will soon bring about a significant turnaround in form, considering:

a) current trajectory of form
b) current trajectory of performances
c) the manager’s historic performance

3) What are the short-term financial implications of changing the manager (paying up contracts etc.), versus retaining him (impacts on gates etc.)?

4) Is there cause for sufficient confidence that we can attract a manager of appropriate calibre at this moment in time (on a smaller scale, replacing Max Crocombe with a better goalkeeper has been more difficult than anticipated)?

5) If we relieve the manager of his duties, what options do we have to replace him, and what evidence is there that each given shortlisted candidate will sufficiently address the issues identified in question 1?

—

Stockwood has previously spoken of succession planning, but that was very much based on the notion of other clubs coming in for Hurst, not us having to remove him. That we find ourselves facing this dilemma has caught most of us off guard, as it will the board too, I am sure. The context is very different, and our reversion to “struggling Grimsby” is a much more difficult sell than the “revitalised and resurgent Grimsby” image we had seemingly restored back in May.

Personally, when I work through these questions in a calm and considered manner, I reach the same conclusion that I reached in the heat of the moment last night: that a change is necessary. However, Jason, Andrew and Debbie will have much greater insight as to the answers to questions 4 and 5 and what the general perception of the club is currently like within the game.

No guarantees whatever we do, but not acting at this time is an even bigger call than acting, imo.

Quoted from Mappers

4/5) It's difficult to know what the criteria for a new manager is : Short term fix (stay up at all costs) move on . Or someone that fits within their long term vision - I'm not sure it's viable for a manager to stay at a club long term these days , I mean Hurst has done well as maybe 3 years (12th longest serving manager or something like that) is classed as long term ? In that most clubs seem to turn managers over every 6 months to a year, 2 if they are lucky .

Quoted from Poojah

I believe it was Macho Man Randy Savage who said “there’s one guarantee in life, that’s that there are no guarantees”. There’s risk in every decision we take in life; some are merely fraught with more jeopardy than others.

There are many case studies in football where changing the manager has had a huge positive impact, and others where it’s made no difference at all (or even made things worse). The best way to approach situations like this, and I believe the approach the owners will take, is to take a step back, put emotions to one side, and work through a series of logical questions.

1) What issues appear to be at the heart of our poor performance?

a) insufficient budget?
b) insufficient supporting infrastructure?
c) lack of player calibre in squad?
d) lack of depth in squad?
e) ineffective tactics and systems?
f) lack of player motivation?
g) squad disharmony?

2) What is the probability that the incumbent manager will soon bring about a significant turnaround in form, considering:

a) current trajectory of form
b) current trajectory of performances
c) the manager’s historic performance

3) What are the short-term financial implications of changing the manager (paying up contracts etc.), versus retaining him (impacts on gates etc.)?

4) Is there cause for sufficient confidence that we can attract a manager of appropriate calibre at this moment in time (on a smaller scale, replacing Max Crocombe with a better goalkeeper has been more difficult than anticipated)?

5) If we relieve the manager of his duties, what options do we have to replace him, and what evidence is there that each given shortlisted candidate will sufficiently address the issues identified in question 1?

—

Stockwood has previously spoken of succession planning, but that was very much based on the notion of other clubs coming in for Hurst, not us having to remove him. That we find ourselves facing this dilemma has caught most of us off guard, as it will the board too, I am sure. The context is very different, and our reversion to “struggling Grimsby” is a much more difficult sell than the “revitalised and resurgent Grimsby” image we had seemingly restored back in May.

Personally, when I work through these questions in a calm and considered manner, I reach the same conclusion that I reached in the heat of the moment last night: that a change is necessary. However, Jason, Andrew and Debbie will have much greater insight as to the answers to questions 4 and 5 and what the general perception of the club is currently like within the game.

No guarantees whatever we do, but not acting at this time is an even bigger call than acting, imo.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Hurst and Doig signed new contacts in September 2022 so anything in that article is out of date.

Contract lengths are irrelevant anyway. There’s usually a maximum compensation clause these days. And possible performance related aspects to contractual compensation too.

I’m sure Jason & Andrew will treat Paul & Chris with respect and fairness if/when their contracts are terminated.

Quoted from HerveJosse

One factor that is unspoken on here but presumambly is part of the owners decision making process at least in private is the cost of removing and replacing the manager and some at least of his back up team. I believe it’s been reported Hurst is on an 18months rolling contract. We can only guess what the others contract arrangements are. Then there are recruitment costs. Total cost guess £300k plus.. Anybody any better guesses?
Then there are the new players who a new manager will want and are unbudgeted and the cost of disposing of those trey don’t want.
Total must be £500k plus of in budgeted expenditure.
Is the money available ?
What impact does it have on other plans the club may have had and next seasons budget etc etc

Quoted from Croxton

A stonefaced Pettit, just a few seats to my left last night seemed as disbelieving as the rest of us.
Your analysis is positively Shakespearian.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/303784-there-is-a-tide-in-the-affairs-of-men-which[b][/b]

Quoted from Mappers

Probably wishing he had continued the family business instead .

Quoted from DB

The board should take a look at Hurst's league record, P 15 and won 3 and 1 against a better Barrow side. The home displays, Gillingham apart, have been dire and we are looking at relegation in the face. 1/3 of the games have gone and we need some stability pretty dam quick. The above costs are petty and trivial when compared to a drop back into the NL. ST's will fall and the club will be left with players still having 2 years left on there contracts with decreased gates.

The time for them to act is now.