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Hurst pre-Bradford

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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:14pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


It does, but we're talking stats not history.

The probability of winning 46 games 1-0 is statistically very, very small. But that doesn't change my argument.


I'm not really sure I know what your argument is. Are we just doing semantics?
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MarinerMal
September 8, 2023, 3:16pm
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Quoted from Poojah


It’s bang in the middle of a “half-chance” and a “good chance”.




So how do we divide them up? Given that Madeleymariner's equation was "4 decent chances and scored 1 (25pc)"

But now we also have "half chance" and "good chance" (that need defining too). So if we scored one goal in 4 "decent chances" to give us 0.25 how do we include the "half chances" and "good chances".

It is starting to sound very much like how eXpected Goals is worked out.  
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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:18pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


No, semantics is about words.


I'm not posting in code.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:20pm
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner


I'm not really sure I know what your argument is. Are we just doing semantics?


Your argument was that a team with a very low xG couldn't finish in the top 3. But if they had an incredibly good defence they could.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:22pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


Your argument was that a team with a very low xG couldn't finish in the top 3. But if they had an incredibly good defence they could.


I was implying that it is exceptionally unlikely. Which it is. It is of course possible.
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MarinerMal
September 8, 2023, 3:28pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


There's every prayer if their defence is the best in the league. If your xG is 1 goal per game you could absolutely walk the league by winning 46 games 1-0.

Statistically speaking.


Not quite true. xG is just the amount of goals you are expected to score. So all it would mean is you would be expected to score 1 goal each game. It doesn't take into account your oppositions xG and obviously just because your xG is 1 it doesn't mean you will score, either.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:28pm
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner


I was implying that it is exceptionally unlikely. Which it is. It is of course possible.


I agree 100%

This thread has been about statistics not the real world. It is statistically possible that a team with a v low xG can finish in the top 3.

We all know, as a result of watching a gazillion football games, that it is very very unlikely. But it is statistically possible.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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lew chaterleys lover
September 8, 2023, 3:33pm
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Quoted from MarinerMal


It's not "sh1te" but it is often misinterpreted. It helps identify how many and the quality of chances a team created and best when used in conjunction with other stats. It is not meant to be definitive.

As for not taking into account the leading scorer not being available, that would depend if his replacement was as good or not. If not XG would likely go down so in effect, this would be taken into account.

Statistic now drives football at the professional level. Town used to identify transfer targets this season. The likes of Brentford have done extremely well using similar methods.

Many teams now employ teams of statisticians, especially at the top level.

Without mathematics, there’s nothing you can do. Everything around you is mathematics. Everything around you is numbers.
— Shakuntala Devi




On field stats mean diddly squat. You can have 10 really good chances and lose. You can allow the opposition all of the possession and allow them numerable chances and win. There is every conceivable permutation in between and reams of stats about it, but the only things that matter is goals scored and conceded, the result and the league placing.

As someone said the rest is froth; interesting froth I grant you but froth nonetheless.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:33pm
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Quoted from MarinerMal


Not quite true. xG is just the amount of goals you are expected to score. So all it would mean is you would be expected to score 1 goal each game. It doesn't take into account your oppositions xG and obviously just because your xG is 1 it doesn't mean you will score, either.


There's another factor, what your expected goals conceded is (I don't know (or care) what the abbreviation is).

If your xG is 1 per game but your expected number of goals conceded is 0.5 you will win the league. Statistically.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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devs
September 8, 2023, 3:33pm
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Whatever...
We don't create enough penalty box chances and can't keep relying on worldies
Last Saturday was more normal - great header from set piece and nice move in the box with good finish
We need more 'scruffy' goals!
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