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Hurst pre-Bradford

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Mappers
September 8, 2023, 2:53pm
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Let's hope we come bottom of the XG table but top of the actual league - too many algorithm's now ; hopefully we win tomorrow with 2 Eisa thunderbolts and they miss 2 on the goal line ,XG would have a field day .
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Madeleymariner
September 8, 2023, 2:58pm

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Surely xg is a load of tosh is it not too difficult just to say we created 4 decent chances and scored 1 (25pc) do it each game  then add it up divide by games played will tell you how good or shoite you are at attacking and if you need better attacking mids or strikers or try different tactics I don't need a computer programe to work it out (yes I am old).
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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:00pm
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That's the point though. The team with the lower xG could definitely win tomorrow but there is not a prayer that a team with the lowest xG over the season then finish in the top 3 of the league. Those who want to discredit it always overstate it's supposed importance to do so. It's one measure. It's not as important as points or goals scored. It needs context and understanding. That doesn't mean it's shite or balderdash though.
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MarinerMal
September 8, 2023, 3:04pm
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Quoted from Madeleymariner
Surely xg is a load of tosh is it not too difficult just to say we created 4 decent chances and scored 1 (25pc) do it each game  then add it up divide by games played will tell you how good or shoite you are at attacking and if you need better attacking mids or strikers or try different tactics I don't need a computer programe to work it out (yes I am old).


Okay, now define what's a "decent" chance.
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Poojah
September 8, 2023, 3:05pm
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Quoted from MarinerMal


Okay, now define what's a "decent" chance.


It’s bang in the middle of a “half-chance” and a “good chance”.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:08pm
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner
but there is not a prayer that a team with the lowest xG over the season then finish in the top 3 of the league. .


There's every prayer if their defence is the best in the league. If your xG is 1 goal per game you could absolutely walk the league by winning 46 games 1-0.

Statistically speaking.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:08pm
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Quoted from Poojah


It’s bang in the middle of a “half-chance” and a “good chance”.


Hard to quantify that though. Maybe someone could just give each chance a numerical value? It wouldn't b perfect but would just give a bit more to work with? 😂
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Rodley Mariner
September 8, 2023, 3:09pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


There's every prayer if their defence is the best in the league. If your xG is 1 goal per game you could absolutely walk the league by winning 46 games 1-0.



Yes history tells us that is very likely.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:11pm
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner


Yes history tells us that is very likely.


It does, but we're talking stats not history.

The probability of winning 46 games 1-0 is statistically very, very small. But that doesn't change my argument.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
September 8, 2023, 3:14pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


It does, but we're talking stats not history.

The probability of winning 46 games 1-0 is statistically very, very small. But that doesn't change my argument.


I'd go further...

Statistically very few world leaders turn into genocidal maniacs.

History tells us that some do though.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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