Projected Points Update

Here's an updated points projection based on points per game over the season:

GTFC 1.05 per game, 10 games left so 10.5 points. Final Points: 48 or 49
FGR 0.89 per game, 8 points. Final points: 41
Colchester: 0.9 per game, 10 points. Final points: 42
Sutton: 0.71, 5/6 points. Final points: 33/4

We have gone above 1 per game for the first time since before Christmas and FGR's has improved. BUT,

Points in last 6 games:

GTFC 9
FGR 10
Colchester 4
Sutton 5

Colchester look to be making a very serious late run for relegation as their points per game over the last 6 has been a woeful 0.66 versus their performance over the season as a whole.

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Historically 45 points is seen as the likely safety point with 50 absolutely guaranteeing safety.


Sutton are very unlikely to get to mid 40s. It will be interesting to see how Colchester do in the next few games.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Have a goosie at Colchester’s last 13 games and come back and tell me where they’re going to pick-up 16/17 points from. Keep in mind they’ve only notched 32 points from their 35 so far.

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

Quoted from MarinerDevil

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

I feel relatively confident we can get past Salford. That said, I think it’s highly unlikely that all three of us, the veggies and Colchester get ahead of them.

If Salford were to go down, I think that would very likely equate to a pretty stressful and nervy relegation battle for all concerned. Personally, I think Colchester are deep, deep in the poo poo.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

You reckon Colchester are going to almost triple their PPG of the last 6 games in the final few weeks? With a fixture list building up with postponements. Can't see it myself.

Just goes to show how important/impressive the win against FGR was. They’ve beaten Bradford, Walsall, Barrow and Tranmere as well as being a last minute penalty away from beating Wrexham too.

Colchester seem to be the ones to finish above. In their remaining games they’re playing the teams in

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
8th
9th
12th
16th
17th
18th
And us in 20th

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

Historically 45 points is seen as the likely safety point with 50 absolutely guaranteeing safety.


Sutton are very unlikely to get to mid 40s. It will be interesting to see how Colchester do in the next few games.

Historically:

2012-13 Barnet relegated on 51 pts.
2013-14 Bristol Rovers relegated on 50 pts.

Quoted from Captain Sensible

Historically:

2012-13 Barnet relegated on 51 pts.
2013-14 Bristol Rovers relegated on 50 pts.

Yep, fair point. I was talking generally.

This year relegation could (could!) be as low as 42 points - my gut feel is that it will be more but I'm looking at the data  

Seems like the new manager effect at Salford has worn off, although has anyone seen that Ryan Giggs is now their director of football? (not that I think this will make much difference) Salford are one of the worst teams i've seen this season so not surprised that are slipping back in the mix.

I'd be amazed if Colchester can pull together a set of enough decent results with their increasing fixture backlog. All it will take is a bit more rain and they'll have even more postponements. I think they are favourites to go down with Sutton.

Will be interesting to see the outcome of FGR v Sutton on sat. If Sutton lose I can't really see a way back for them, but if they do get a result then maybe they haven't given up the fight just yet.

Quoted from MarinerDevil

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

If they get hammered by Stockport it could really undermine their confidence and start an unstoppable slide.

"Seems like the new manager effect at Salford has worn off, although has anyone seen that Ryan Giggs is now their director of football?"

I hope that's just for the men's team.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Give over hahaha your expecting 2 of the 3 worst teams in the division to go on a championship style winning run....

Colchester to go with about 43 points

Yeah it won't be 48 points I doubt - there is the mixture of the bottom 6  teams playing each other so it means one has to lose points in those games . I think we need 8 points maybe 9 to be sure with our superior goal difference .

Using the rudimentary and made-up methodology of taking the average of each club’s overall PPG to date, and their PPG over the last 10 and 6 respectively, this is how the bottom 5 looks like it will stack up (rounded to the nearest point):

Salford - 50 points
Town - 50 points
FGR - 45 points
Colchester - 41
Sutton - 33

Sutton are doomed, we know that, but Colchester’s overall PPG is very similar to that of Forest Green’s but is way worse over the last 10 and 6. It doesn’t bode well for them; they need to find a massive turnaround in form from somewhere, but a combination of tough opponents and fixture congestion is going to make that very, very difficult.

If we allow a 10% contingency in that safety benchmark, then an end of season total of 46 points seems highly likely to be enough for safety. For us, 2 wins and 2 draws from our last 10 would do that, while 3 wins and 7 defeats would take us beyond.

Personally, I think we’re in pretty good shape. We’re averaging 1.1 PPG over the last 10 and season as a whole; 0.8 between now and the end of the season should do.

I just wish we could turn a few more draws into wins, because we haven't lost that many games considering our league position. Teams far higher up the league have lost more games than we have, but of course, they have won more. Draws are like a slow and painful death by a thousand cuts.

We were robbed on Saturday, but should have been out of site by the time their pen was awarded. Had good chances in the previous two away games as well to take all three points, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. We spurned good chances again last night, but got away with it.

Lost count of the amount of away games we have drawn that could and should have been wins. We seem to be getting the sh1tty end of the stick from penalty decisions lately too. Two or three blatant ones ignored by the ref in recent games, including last night, but if and when when we do get one, they have to be buried. Gav has missed some golden chances lately, which would have seen us a couple of places higher had he converted, but I suppose that is why teams end up down the bottom, because they aren't ruthless enough.

On the plus side, we are creating chances and have tightened up considerably at the back, which is yielding more points at the moment. Let's hope we can carry this good form into the home straight.

Quoted from ginnywings

I, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. .

I suspect Wimbledon supporters would take issue with you over that. We were hanging on for dear life during parts of that game. I always felt a draw was deserved, a win would have been a mugging.

I  am sure an earlier analysis showed FGR playing the top 5 teams in 5 consecutive games. Wow!  Good luck with that.

Quoted from Poojah

Using the rudimentary and made-up methodology of taking the average of each club’s overall PPG to date, and their PPG over the last 10 and 6 respectively, this is how the bottom 5 looks like it will stack up (rounded to the nearest point):

Salford - 50 points
Town - 50 points
FGR - 45 points
Colchester - 41
Sutton - 33

Sutton are doomed, we know that, but Colchester’s overall PPG is very similar to that of Forest Green’s but is way worse over the last 10 and 6. It doesn’t bode well for them; they need to find a massive turnaround in form from somewhere, but a combination of tough opponents and fixture congestion is going to make that very, very difficult.

If we allow a 10% contingency in that safety benchmark, then an end of season total of 46 points seems highly likely to be enough for safety. For us, 2 wins and 2 draws from our last 10 would do that, while 3 wins and 7 defeats would take us beyond.

Personally, I think we’re in pretty good shape. We’re averaging 1.1 PPG over the last 10 and season as a whole; 0.8 between now and the end of the season should do.

I have always felt that a point per game would be enough and to be a bit ahead of that is good news.

Your cut and my broader data both suggest that relegation is below 43 points this season and that puts us pretty close to safety with 10 games to go. I have a mate who is a big Stevenage supporter (I know, I know..) but keeps a keen eye on us and he's been telling me for 3 weeks that we'll be fine.

We have to play Colchester away though don't forget

Quoted from Blundellite

We have to play Colchester away though don't forget

We play them on April 16th so both teams will have 2 games to go. On PPG we will be on 46 points and they will be on about 40 but we have better goal difference. A draw will be enough.

I suspect that they may not get to 40 points by the time we play them and the game will be irrelevant (for us!).

Quoted from ginnywings

I just wish we could turn a few more draws into wins, because we haven't lost that many games considering our league position. Teams far higher up the league have lost more games than we have, but of course, they have won more. Draws are like a slow and painful death by a thousand cuts.

We were robbed on Saturday, but should have been out of site by the time their pen was awarded. Had good chances in the previous two away games as well to take all three points, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. We spurned good chances again last night, but got away with it.

Lost count of the amount of away games we have drawn that could and should have been wins. We seem to be getting the sh1tty end of the stick from penalty decisions lately too. Two or three blatant ones ignored by the ref in recent games, including last night, but if and when when we do get one, they have to be buried. Gav has missed some golden chances lately, which would have seen us a couple of places higher had he converted, but I suppose that is why teams end up down the bottom, because they aren't ruthless enough.

On the plus side, we are creating chances and have tightened up considerably at the back, which is yielding more points at the moment. Let's hope we can carry this good form into the home straight.

This is a thing i've been saying for a while now, we've been beaten heavily the past few weeks but we've still only lost 14 games. Half the league has lost more than us, our different is we've drawn 14 aswell. If we turned half of those into wins we'd be 8th.

Quoted from LocalLadGTFC

This is a thing i've been saying for a while now, we've been beaten heavily the past few weeks but we've still only lost 14 games. Half the league has lost more than us, our different is we've drawn 14 aswell. If we turned half of those into wins we'd be 8th.

If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle...

Turning the opportunities into goals is the big issue. We've been completely reliant on Rose until now, with the other strikers not chipping in enough (in part because they haven't been fit for a lot of the season). Good to see Obikwu nick a couple and this will hopefully continue, but the midfield haven't really scored enough goals given the chances they've had, Eisa aside, and the defenders have only scored 4 goals between all of them.

Looks like young Obikwu is a natural finisher.
Until last two games I wasn’t sure, but think for the next few games at least he will be a useful replacement for Rose.
Beyond that teams might have worked him out.
Let’s see.

Still hoping

So we are saying that Coclhester will go down because they are on a poor run and won't turn it round????

a bit like a certain team who'd only won once in 3 months, were doomed to relegation, but have now hit promotion form in the last 5 games???

let's not get too ahead of ourselves, please

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle...

What your grandma got up to in her spare time is nothing to do with me Bobby  

Quoted from forza ivano

So we are saying that Coclhester will go down because they are on a poor run and won't turn it round????

a bit like a certain team who'd only won once in 3 months, were doomed to relegation, but have now hit promotion form in the last 5 games???

let's not get too ahead of ourselves, please

Exactly.  This ppg extrapolation is all well and good, but if applied to FGR six games ago you would never have said they would pick up 10 points from them would you? Nor would you think we would pick up 9.

It looks like both us and FGR have turned a corner. Should Colchester do likewise it might still be a very close run thing.  

The teams not wanting it to be a close run thing must be Salford and Swindon , if it's a slightly higher points total they could get dragged into it as they seem in freefall and out of form .

We are 6 points behind Swindon with 2 games in hand and still have to play them , Salford are 2 points ahead of us but we have a game in hand ; Hopefully Stockport beat them tonight because then it will be 2 points behind them with 2 games in hand .

Maybe with our recent form it's time to start looking upwards a little bit .