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Projected Points Update

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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 13, 2024, 3:13pm
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Quoted from Poojah
Using the rudimentary and made-up methodology of taking the average of each club’s overall PPG to date, and their PPG over the last 10 and 6 respectively, this is how the bottom 5 looks like it will stack up (rounded to the nearest point):

Salford - 50 points
Town - 50 points
FGR - 45 points
Colchester - 41
Sutton - 33

Sutton are doomed, we know that, but Colchester’s overall PPG is very similar to that of Forest Green’s but is way worse over the last 10 and 6. It doesn’t bode well for them; they need to find a massive turnaround in form from somewhere, but a combination of tough opponents and fixture congestion is going to make that very, very difficult.

If we allow a 10% contingency in that safety benchmark, then an end of season total of 46 points seems highly likely to be enough for safety. For us, 2 wins and 2 draws from our last 10 would do that, while 3 wins and 7 defeats would take us beyond.

Personally, I think we’re in pretty good shape. We’re averaging 1.1 PPG over the last 10 and season as a whole; 0.8 between now and the end of the season should do.


I have always felt that a point per game would be enough and to be a bit ahead of that is good news.

Your cut and my broader data both suggest that relegation is below 43 points this season and that puts us pretty close to safety with 10 games to go. I have a mate who is a big Stevenage supporter (I know, I know..) but keeps a keen eye on us and he's been telling me for 3 weeks that we'll be fine.



Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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Blundellite
March 13, 2024, 3:25pm
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We have to play Colchester away though don't forget
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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 13, 2024, 3:37pm
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Quoted from Blundellite
We have to play Colchester away though don't forget


We play them on April 16th so both teams will have 2 games to go. On PPG we will be on 46 points and they will be on about 40 but we have better goal difference. A draw will be enough.

I suspect that they may not get to 40 points by the time we play them and the game will be irrelevant (for us!).


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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LocalLadGTFC
March 13, 2024, 5:22pm
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Quoted from ginnywings
I just wish we could turn a few more draws into wins, because we haven't lost that many games considering our league position. Teams far higher up the league have lost more games than we have, but of course, they have won more. Draws are like a slow and painful death by a thousand cuts.

We were robbed on Saturday, but should have been out of site by the time their pen was awarded. Had good chances in the previous two away games as well to take all three points, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. We spurned good chances again last night, but got away with it.

Lost count of the amount of away games we have drawn that could and should have been wins. We seem to be getting the sh1tty end of the stick from penalty decisions lately too. Two or three blatant ones ignored by the ref in recent games, including last night, but if and when when we do get one, they have to be buried. Gav has missed some golden chances lately, which would have seen us a couple of places higher had he converted, but I suppose that is why teams end up down the bottom, because they aren't ruthless enough.

On the plus side, we are creating chances and have tightened up considerably at the back, which is yielding more points at the moment. Let's hope we can carry this good form into the home straight.


This is a thing i've been saying for a while now, we've been beaten heavily the past few weeks but we've still only lost 14 games. Half the league has lost more than us, our different is we've drawn 14 aswell. If we turned half of those into wins we'd be 8th.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
March 13, 2024, 6:25pm
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Quoted from LocalLadGTFC


This is a thing i've been saying for a while now, we've been beaten heavily the past few weeks but we've still only lost 14 games. Half the league has lost more than us, our different is we've drawn 14 aswell. If we turned half of those into wins we'd be 8th.


If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle...


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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Maringer
March 13, 2024, 6:33pm
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Turning the opportunities into goals is the big issue. We've been completely reliant on Rose until now, with the other strikers not chipping in enough (in part because they haven't been fit for a lot of the season). Good to see Obikwu nick a couple and this will hopefully continue, but the midfield haven't really scored enough goals given the chances they've had, Eisa aside, and the defenders have only scored 4 goals between all of them.
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IlkleyMariner
March 13, 2024, 7:22pm
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Looks like young Obikwu is a natural finisher.
Until last two games I wasn’t sure, but think for the next few games at least he will be a useful replacement for Rose.
Beyond that teams might have worked him out.
Let’s see.

Still hoping
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forza ivano
March 13, 2024, 8:47pm

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So we are saying that Coclhester will go down because they are on a poor run and won't turn it round????

a bit like a certain team who'd only won once in 3 months, were doomed to relegation, but have now hit promotion form in the last 5 games???

let's not get too ahead of ourselves, please
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LocalLadGTFC
March 13, 2024, 9:00pm
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Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle


If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle...


What your grandma got up to in her spare time is nothing to do with me Bobby  
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RonMariner
March 13, 2024, 11:08pm

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Quoted from forza ivano
So we are saying that Coclhester will go down because they are on a poor run and won't turn it round????

a bit like a certain team who'd only won once in 3 months, were doomed to relegation, but have now hit promotion form in the last 5 games???

let's not get too ahead of ourselves, please


Exactly.  This ppg extrapolation is all well and good, but if applied to FGR six games ago you would never have said they would pick up 10 points from them would you? Nor would you think we would pick up 9.

It looks like both us and FGR have turned a corner. Should Colchester do likewise it might still be a very close run thing.  
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