Projected Points Update

Seems like the new manager effect at Salford has worn off, although has anyone seen that Ryan Giggs is now their director of football? (not that I think this will make much difference) Salford are one of the worst teams i've seen this season so not surprised that are slipping back in the mix.

I'd be amazed if Colchester can pull together a set of enough decent results with their increasing fixture backlog. All it will take is a bit more rain and they'll have even more postponements. I think they are favourites to go down with Sutton.

Will be interesting to see the outcome of FGR v Sutton on sat. If Sutton lose I can't really see a way back for them, but if they do get a result then maybe they haven't given up the fight just yet.

Quoted from MarinerDevil

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

If they get hammered by Stockport it could really undermine their confidence and start an unstoppable slide.

"Seems like the new manager effect at Salford has worn off, although has anyone seen that Ryan Giggs is now their director of football?"

I hope that's just for the men's team.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Give over hahaha your expecting 2 of the 3 worst teams in the division to go on a championship style winning run....

Colchester to go with about 43 points

Yeah it won't be 48 points I doubt - there is the mixture of the bottom 6  teams playing each other so it means one has to lose points in those games . I think we need 8 points maybe 9 to be sure with our superior goal difference .

Using the rudimentary and made-up methodology of taking the average of each club’s overall PPG to date, and their PPG over the last 10 and 6 respectively, this is how the bottom 5 looks like it will stack up (rounded to the nearest point):

Salford - 50 points
Town - 50 points
FGR - 45 points
Colchester - 41
Sutton - 33

Sutton are doomed, we know that, but Colchester’s overall PPG is very similar to that of Forest Green’s but is way worse over the last 10 and 6. It doesn’t bode well for them; they need to find a massive turnaround in form from somewhere, but a combination of tough opponents and fixture congestion is going to make that very, very difficult.

If we allow a 10% contingency in that safety benchmark, then an end of season total of 46 points seems highly likely to be enough for safety. For us, 2 wins and 2 draws from our last 10 would do that, while 3 wins and 7 defeats would take us beyond.

Personally, I think we’re in pretty good shape. We’re averaging 1.1 PPG over the last 10 and season as a whole; 0.8 between now and the end of the season should do.

I just wish we could turn a few more draws into wins, because we haven't lost that many games considering our league position. Teams far higher up the league have lost more games than we have, but of course, they have won more. Draws are like a slow and painful death by a thousand cuts.

We were robbed on Saturday, but should have been out of site by the time their pen was awarded. Had good chances in the previous two away games as well to take all three points, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. We spurned good chances again last night, but got away with it.

Lost count of the amount of away games we have drawn that could and should have been wins. We seem to be getting the sh1tty end of the stick from penalty decisions lately too. Two or three blatant ones ignored by the ref in recent games, including last night, but if and when when we do get one, they have to be buried. Gav has missed some golden chances lately, which would have seen us a couple of places higher had he converted, but I suppose that is why teams end up down the bottom, because they aren't ruthless enough.

On the plus side, we are creating chances and have tightened up considerably at the back, which is yielding more points at the moment. Let's hope we can carry this good form into the home straight.

Quoted from ginnywings

I, and it wouldn't be a travesty if we had won the last five games on the trot. .

I suspect Wimbledon supporters would take issue with you over that. We were hanging on for dear life during parts of that game. I always felt a draw was deserved, a win would have been a mugging.

I  am sure an earlier analysis showed FGR playing the top 5 teams in 5 consecutive games. Wow!  Good luck with that.