Projected Points Update

Here's an updated points projection based on points per game over the season:

GTFC 1.05 per game, 10 games left so 10.5 points. Final Points: 48 or 49
FGR 0.89 per game, 8 points. Final points: 41
Colchester: 0.9 per game, 10 points. Final points: 42
Sutton: 0.71, 5/6 points. Final points: 33/4

We have gone above 1 per game for the first time since before Christmas and FGR's has improved. BUT,

Points in last 6 games:

GTFC 9
FGR 10
Colchester 4
Sutton 5

Colchester look to be making a very serious late run for relegation as their points per game over the last 6 has been a woeful 0.66 versus their performance over the season as a whole.

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Historically 45 points is seen as the likely safety point with 50 absolutely guaranteeing safety.


Sutton are very unlikely to get to mid 40s. It will be interesting to see how Colchester do in the next few games.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

Have a goosie at Colchester’s last 13 games and come back and tell me where they’re going to pick-up 16/17 points from. Keep in mind they’ve only notched 32 points from their 35 so far.

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

Quoted from MarinerDevil

I think Salford are still in the conversation too. They were woeful when we beat them in December and, despite a run of good results in January, their form has turned for the worse in the last 5 games and we could overhaul them if we match their PPG and win our game in hand.

For us, I said a couple of games ago that if we could just maintain 1 PPG until the end of the season we would finish with 46 points which would be enough in my opinion. Last night's win puts us 2 points ahead of that target for now. FGR and Colchester need promotion form to beat that, and while FGR are close to achieving that at the moment, I don't think they'll be able to maintain that with their run-in.

I feel relatively confident we can get past Salford. That said, I think it’s highly unlikely that all three of us, the veggies and Colchester get ahead of them.

If Salford were to go down, I think that would very likely equate to a pretty stressful and nervy relegation battle for all concerned. Personally, I think Colchester are deep, deep in the poo poo.

Quoted from It Bites

Based on the last 5 games we’re going to pick up points but I’m of the thinking that 48 won’t be enough this time

You reckon Colchester are going to almost triple their PPG of the last 6 games in the final few weeks? With a fixture list building up with postponements. Can't see it myself.

Just goes to show how important/impressive the win against FGR was. They’ve beaten Bradford, Walsall, Barrow and Tranmere as well as being a last minute penalty away from beating Wrexham too.

Colchester seem to be the ones to finish above. In their remaining games they’re playing the teams in

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
8th
9th
12th
16th
17th
18th
And us in 20th

Quoted from BobbyCummingsTackle

Historically 45 points is seen as the likely safety point with 50 absolutely guaranteeing safety.


Sutton are very unlikely to get to mid 40s. It will be interesting to see how Colchester do in the next few games.

Historically:

2012-13 Barnet relegated on 51 pts.
2013-14 Bristol Rovers relegated on 50 pts.

Quoted from Captain Sensible

Historically:

2012-13 Barnet relegated on 51 pts.
2013-14 Bristol Rovers relegated on 50 pts.

Yep, fair point. I was talking generally.

This year relegation could (could!) be as low as 42 points - my gut feel is that it will be more but I'm looking at the data