Just back......

I’ve struggled to properly collect my thoughts on yesterday. Taken in isolation, it’s a decent point and an improved performance against a side with play-off hopes, and given the challenges going into the game, the manager and players deserve a modicum of credit.

But there’s no getting away from it, the broader situation and next week’s game became considerably more precarious. What was possibly a “must not lose” fixture is now unquestionably “must win”, and that’s not great given the shoddy state of our home form. The extremes of the next 6 days have the potential to see us 7 points clear of relegation with 2 games in hand, or 2 points adrift of safety and firmly in the relegation zone. The thought of the latter scenario makes me feel queasy.

I think you can actually make the argument that our forthcoming fixture is actually our biggest since the 2016 play-off final - against Forest Green no less. I’m not forgetting the 2022 play-off final or our previous relegation; I just don’t think we have the powers of recovery that we would have had / did have back then. It’s a huge, huge game, and not one I’m particularly looking forward to.

Played well and deserved a point against a side with some better players.
Where has Curtis gone?
Cup final on Saturday, cannot imagine Artell will survive defeat but he has learned some lessons and I respect this. That said had he done this 6 games ago we would have had more points.
Win and subject to midweek we could be 7 points clear with 2 games in hand, lose and we are in a terrible mess. utm

Played well and deserved a point against a side with some better players.
Where has Curtis gone?
Cup final on Saturday, cannot imagine Artell will survive defeat but he has learned some lessons and I respect this. That said had he done this 6 games ago we would have had more points.
Win and subject to midweek we could be 7 points clear with 2 games in hand, lose and we are in a terrible mess. utm

Quoted from Poojah

I’ve struggled to properly collect my thoughts on yesterday. Taken in isolation, it’s a decent point and an improved performance against a side with play-off hopes, and given the challenges going into the game, the manager and players deserve a modicum of credit.

But there’s no getting away from it, the broader situation and next week’s game became considerably more precarious. What was possibly a “must not lose” fixture is now unquestionably “must win”, and that’s not great given the shoddy state of our home form. The extremes of the next 6 days have the potential to see us 7 points clear of relegation with 2 games in hand, or 2 points adrift of safety and firmly in the relegation zone. The thought of the latter scenario makes me feel queasy.

I think you can actually make the argument that our forthcoming fixture is actually our biggest since the 2016 play-off final - against Forest Green no less. I’m not forgetting the 2022 play-off final or our previous relegation; I just don’t think we have the powers of recovery that we would have had / did have back then. It’s a huge, huge game, and not one I’m particularly looking forward to.

The reality is it may well fall somewhere in between , I can see FGR getting a draw on Tuesday and then it possibly being a draw on Saturday . Which would leave us 3 points clear , effectively 4 with the GD .

FGR will have played 35 games at this point next week , us 33 - 2 games in hand
I am citing the top end of 47 points for survival over the last 8 full season again .
FGR could have 28 points with 11 games remaining which would require them to hit 1.75PPG for those 11 to reach the magical 47 points ; top end play-off form .

We draw on Saturday ,we will have 31 points  with 13 games remaining . We would only require 1.25PPG to hit the magic 47 points ; lower mid table numbers over a season .

If we manage to beat FGR the landscape changes somewhat , we would have 33 points only 14 off that magic 47 points - and effectively would need a touch over 1PPG to hit that number from the last 13 games .

I still think it's 'must not lose ' against FGR  but that would be taking into account our PPG throughout the whole season and not this mad spell at home were we have been tanked so often since Xmas .

I have decided to revert to type and look at it more numerically and with rationale because let's face it we need some hope from somewhere .


We really need FGR to not win either of the next two games (stating the obvious ) . I see Sutton as gone , I can't see them picking up 2PPG from now until season end , title winning form to hit that 47 points .

Its been covered before, however, did the change in style come about due to injuries, or a DA change?
If the former, then we could go back to old ways and lose next Saturday. If DA has had a change of heart and we play same as yesterday, then we have a good chance as the players are comfortable with it. But pretty it will not be.
When we play FGR we can Stick or Twist which is dangerous as it splits the thinking, unlike FGR team who know 100% what they need to do, and that is to win at all costs. No split thing for them, and they have chalked up 2 wins and a draw out of 5 games, so have got some confidence back. Steve Cotterill, has managed 9 other teams so has some knowledge.
So I do hope that the changes are because DA changed his ideas, and Wrexham get some form back on Tuesday and give FGR a hard game and a thrashing.  UTM

Quoted from GrimPol

Its been covered before, however, did the change in style come about due to injuries, or a DA change?
If the former, then we could go back to old ways and lose next Saturday. If DA has had a change of heart and we play same as yesterday, then we have a good chance as the players are comfortable with it. But pretty it will not be.
When we play FGR we can Stick or Twist which is dangerous as it splits the thinking, unlike FGR team who know 100% what they need to do, and that is to win at all costs. No split thing for them, and they have chalked up 2 wins and a draw out of 5 games, so have got some confidence back. Steve Cotterill, has managed 9 other teams so has some knowledge.
So I do hope that the changes are because DA changed his ideas, and Wrexham get some form back on Tuesday and give FGR a hard game and a thrashing.  UTM

He said on RH the shape thing was a “bit of both”. Which I assume meant game plan & availability.

Quoted from Mappers

The reality is it may well fall somewhere in between , I can see FGR getting a draw on Tuesday and then it possibly being a draw on Saturday . Which would leave us 3 points clear , effectively 4 with the GD .

FGR will have played 35 games at this point next week , us 33 - 2 games in hand
I am citing the top end of 47 points for survival over the last 8 full season again .
FGR could have 28 points with 11 games remaining which would require them to hit 1.75PPG for those 11 to reach the magical 47 points ; top end play-off form .

We draw on Saturday ,we will have 31 points  with 13 games remaining . We would only require 1.25PPG to hit the magic 47 points ; lower mid table numbers over a season .

If we manage to beat FGR the landscape changes somewhat , we would have 33 points only 14 off that magic 47 points - and effectively would need a touch over 1PPG to hit that number from the last 13 games .

I still think it's 'must not lose ' against FGR  but that would be taking into account our PPG throughout the whole season and not this mad spell at home were we have been tanked so often since Xmas .

I have decided to revert to type and look at it more numerically and with rationale because let's face it we need some hope from somewhere .


We really need FGR to not win either of the next two games (stating the obvious ) . I see Sutton as gone , I can't see them picking up 2PPG from now until season end , title winning form to hit that 47 points .

Thing is though 47 points isn’t going to be needed to stay up this season. It could even be as low as 38/40..daft as that sounds. Agree re Sutton..they’re gone. It’s basically a 3 way fight for the other relegation spot. Us, FGR and Colchester.

Quoted from marinerjase

Thing is though 47 points isn’t going to be needed to stay up this season. It could even be as low as 38/40..daft as that sounds. Agree re Sutton..they’re gone. It’s basically a 3 way fight for the other relegation spot. Us, FGR and Colchester.

I suggested a few weeks back that it may end up a battle between us and Colchester. Forest Green have a better squad than the table suggests, and are starting to show that under Steve Cotterill.

Worryingly, both the veggies and Colchester have picked up 4 more points than us over the course of the last 6 games. As decent a point as yesterday’s was, we need to start regularly winning games if we’re to remain in the EFL. We’ve already completed 2 months of the 2024 League Two calendar without winning a single match.

Quoted from marinerjase

Thing is though 47 points isn’t going to be needed to stay up this season. It could even be as low as 38/40..daft as that sounds. Agree re Sutton..they’re gone. It’s basically a 3 way fight for the other relegation spot. Us, FGR and Colchester.

Yeah it won't ,i was just going by the  highest case scenario ,the average to survive over those 8 seasons was 42.5 points to.The lowest without deductions over those 8 seasons was 35 points , highest 47 .

I agree with Poojahs rather sombre summary.

I wouldn't be surprised if FGR are well clear of trouble before the end as they have the all important momentum, whereas we have suddenly realised we have got a fight on our hands and whether by accident or design have decided not to leave ourselves wide open, which will help a bit but all this could and should have been avoided. How a professional coaching team could come to the conclusion that we will continue to play the same way even though we were conceding goals for fun is a dereliction of duty. If we do go down I want all them all gone along with any data analyst who thought we were doing well cos we were unlucky to concede all those goals and equally unlucky that our shots never went in.

Football being football things might go for us this week, and it is not just us in the mire as Colchester are nearly as bad but I feel like I've been kicked in the guts that we have to go through this nightmare yet again. I thought it was really bad in the late 60's when we finished near the bottom of the 4th division once but now it seems such a regular occurrence.