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Play-offs?

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GollyGTFC
February 12, 2020, 9:59am Report to Moderator

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Since the fourth tier returned to 24 teams for the 1995/96 season the team finishing in the final play-off place (7th) has achieved an average of 71.29 points with an average goal difference of +13.08. The highest points achieved for 7th was 78 points by Wycombe in 2008 and the lowest was 66 points by Lincoln in 2006.

Exactly half of those 24 seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with either 71 or 72 points. 8 seasons the 7th placed team finished with 70 or less points. Only 4 of the seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with more than 72 points (2004- 74 pts, 2008- 78 pts, 2016- 75 pts & 2018- 75 pts).

So, could we reach the play-offs? Colchester in 5th have the lowest points per game out of the top 7. They are heading for 72 points if their current points per game could be maintained. Could we realistically reach 72 points?

We've got 38 points from our first 31 matches. So to make 72 points we would need 34 points from our last 15 matches or 2.26 points per game. Since January 1st we have 15 points from 9 matches or 1.66 points per game.

That's 10 wins, 4 draws & 1 loss or 11 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses from 15 matches and even then 72 points isn't always enough. Probably not realistic, but who knows how the rest of the season will play out? Maybe it will take less than 72. Maybe 72 won't be enough.

We probably need to get 10 points from the rest of February (win all 3 home games & a point at Swindon) and see how the table looks on 1st March. Our next 2 away games (Swindon & Plymouth) are probably the most difficult left- Crewe might possibly be already promoted when we go there for our final away match.

Whatever we should be targeting a comfortable top half finish and a positive goal difference. We've only had 1 top half finish in our last 14 EFL seasons and none in our last 7 EFL seasons. The rest of the season is a good opportunity to correct that terrible statistic and build momentum for a promotion push next season.
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NewtoN
February 12, 2020, 10:02am Report to Moderator

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I'm seeing the end of this season as full prep to have a big go next season, would be nice if we could sneak in but very unlikely.
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marinerdazza
February 12, 2020, 10:04am Report to Moderator
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I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season for once.
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PoutonStepover
February 12, 2020, 10:11am Report to Moderator
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Using the Fishy’s football league calculator, giving us 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, with a goal difference of +16 we finish 7th on 74 points, ahead of Northampton by a goal difference of 1!


In Ollie we trust 🐟

UTMM
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diehardmariner
February 12, 2020, 10:12am Report to Moderator
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Good statting there Golly.

Brings it into perspective the ask ahead of us but as you say, we really don't know how the season will pan out.

If anyone does fancy us to sneak into the play-offs and then go and nab it, we're available at 150/1 for promotion with a few firms...
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Black_and_White_Bear
February 12, 2020, 10:15am Report to Moderator

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I would love for that to happen, however 34 pts from 45 left is a very big ask.  I will just be happy to see us play the way we did last night for the rest of the season, and really go for it next season.  UTMM!


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Black_and_White_Bear
February 12, 2020, 10:17am Report to Moderator

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Quoted from diehardmariner
Good statting there Golly.

Brings it into perspective the ask ahead of us but as you say, we really don't know how the season will pan out.

If anyone does fancy us to sneak into the play-offs and then go and nab it, we're available at 150/1 for promotion with a few firms...


I put a couple of bets on at the beginning of the season, trouble is I don't remember what the odds were then, I'm old with a bad memory, and I don't even know which online bookie I placed the bets with.  



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The Old Codger
February 12, 2020, 10:19am Report to Moderator
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After last night, my lads asked me if I thought the play offs were possible. My off the cuff answer was we would need 10 wins. 10 wins would be a great watch if nothing else, let’s see how we go.
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ginnywings
February 12, 2020, 10:27am Report to Moderator

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It was a possibility but we have dropped too many points from promising positions. Leading against Orient, Crawley and FGR, but only managed 2 points from those games. FGR have only taken 1 point from their last 5 or 6, the pity being it was against us. Lost to Exeter when we were the better side. Could have got a last minute winner at Bradford, which was another draw. Could have been different with a bit more luck but i think it's too big an ask now.
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Jarmo.Is.God
February 12, 2020, 10:27am Report to Moderator

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Like others have said, lets not think about the play-offs, and enjoy the games, as they have been very entertaining as we expected.

And IH has the freedom to pick and choose certain players/styles to find out what he needs for next season.

Next season could be the best since the promotion season which was some how 4 years ago already!
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