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Posted by: GollyGTFC, February 12, 2020, 9:59am
Since the fourth tier returned to 24 teams for the 1995/96 season the team finishing in the final play-off place (7th) has achieved an average of 71.29 points with an average goal difference of +13.08. The highest points achieved for 7th was 78 points by Wycombe in 2008 and the lowest was 66 points by Lincoln in 2006.

Exactly half of those 24 seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with either 71 or 72 points. 8 seasons the 7th placed team finished with 70 or less points. Only 4 of the seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with more than 72 points (2004- 74 pts, 2008- 78 pts, 2016- 75 pts & 2018- 75 pts).

So, could we reach the play-offs? Colchester in 5th have the lowest points per game out of the top 7. They are heading for 72 points if their current points per game could be maintained. Could we realistically reach 72 points?

We've got 38 points from our first 31 matches. So to make 72 points we would need 34 points from our last 15 matches or 2.26 points per game. Since January 1st we have 15 points from 9 matches or 1.66 points per game.

That's 10 wins, 4 draws & 1 loss or 11 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses from 15 matches and even then 72 points isn't always enough. Probably not realistic, but who knows how the rest of the season will play out? Maybe it will take less than 72. Maybe 72 won't be enough.

We probably need to get 10 points from the rest of February (win all 3 home games & a point at Swindon) and see how the table looks on 1st March. Our next 2 away games (Swindon & Plymouth) are probably the most difficult left- Crewe might possibly be already promoted when we go there for our final away match.

Whatever we should be targeting a comfortable top half finish and a positive goal difference. We've only had 1 top half finish in our last 14 EFL seasons and none in our last 7 EFL seasons. The rest of the season is a good opportunity to correct that terrible statistic and build momentum for a promotion push next season.
Posted by: NewtoN, February 12, 2020, 10:02am; Reply: 1
I'm seeing the end of this season as full prep to have a big go next season, would be nice if we could sneak in but very unlikely.
Posted by: marinerdazza, February 12, 2020, 10:04am; Reply: 2
I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season for once.
Posted by: PoutonStepover, February 12, 2020, 10:11am; Reply: 3
Using the Fishy’s football league calculator, giving us 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, with a goal difference of +16 we finish 7th on 74 points, ahead of Northampton by a goal difference of 1!
Posted by: diehardmariner, February 12, 2020, 10:12am; Reply: 4
Good statting there Golly.

Brings it into perspective the ask ahead of us but as you say, we really don't know how the season will pan out.

If anyone does fancy us to sneak into the play-offs and then go and nab it, we're available at 150/1 for promotion with a few firms...
Posted by: Black_and_White_Bear, February 12, 2020, 10:15am; Reply: 5
I would love for that to happen, however 34 pts from 45 left is a very big ask.  I will just be happy to see us play the way we did last night for the rest of the season, and really go for it next season.  UTMM!
Posted by: Black_and_White_Bear, February 12, 2020, 10:17am; Reply: 6
Quoted from diehardmariner
Good statting there Golly.

Brings it into perspective the ask ahead of us but as you say, we really don't know how the season will pan out.

If anyone does fancy us to sneak into the play-offs and then go and nab it, we're available at 150/1 for promotion with a few firms...


I put a couple of bets on at the beginning of the season, trouble is I don't remember what the odds were then, I'm old with a bad memory, and I don't even know which online bookie I placed the bets with.   ;)

Posted by: The Old Codger, February 12, 2020, 10:19am; Reply: 7
After last night, my lads asked me if I thought the play offs were possible. My off the cuff answer was we would need 10 wins. 10 wins would be a great watch if nothing else, let’s see how we go.
Posted by: ginnywings, February 12, 2020, 10:27am; Reply: 8
It was a possibility but we have dropped too many points from promising positions. Leading against Orient, Crawley and FGR, but only managed 2 points from those games. FGR have only taken 1 point from their last 5 or 6, the pity being it was against us. Lost to Exeter when we were the better side. Could have got a last minute winner at Bradford, which was another draw. Could have been different with a bit more luck but i think it's too big an ask now.
Posted by: Jarmo.Is.God, February 12, 2020, 10:27am; Reply: 9
Like others have said, lets not think about the play-offs, and enjoy the games, as they have been very entertaining as we expected.

And IH has the freedom to pick and choose certain players/styles to find out what he needs for next season.

Next season could be the best since the promotion season which was some how 4 years ago already!
Posted by: diehardmariner, February 12, 2020, 10:27am; Reply: 10


I put a couple of bets on at the beginning of the season, trouble is I don't remember what the odds were then, I'm old with a bad memory, and I don't even know which online bookie I placed the bets with.   ;)



I got us at 50/1 to win the league and 10/1 to be promoted.  At the time both felt great value... ;D
Posted by: Black_and_White_Bear, February 12, 2020, 10:30am; Reply: 11
Quoted from diehardmariner


I got us at 50/1 to win the league and 10/1 to be promoted.  At the time both felt great value... ;D


That rang a bell, I think I got 60/1 to win the League, not sure what the other bet was that I put on, maybe to get in the playoffs.  One thing I do remember was I put a tenner on each bet.
Posted by: toontown, February 12, 2020, 10:34am; Reply: 12
Quoted from ginnywings
It was a possibility but we have dropped too many points from promising positions. Leading against Orient, Crawley and FGR, but only managed 2 points from those games. FGR have only taken 1 point from their last 5 or 6, the pity being it was against us. Lost to Exeter when we were the better side. Could have got a last minute winner at Bradford, which was another draw. Could have been different with a bit more luck but i think it's too big an ask now.


Exactly how I see it ginny. The late equaliser by orient, the desperately unlucky defeat to Exeter and that save in the last seconds on the line by Bradford seem more costly now. Too much to do now.
Posted by: lew chaterleys lover, February 12, 2020, 10:38am; Reply: 13
Nothing is impossible, at least until it is impossible, but we have about a dozen teams better placed who will be thinking the same. Nothing would give me greater pleasure to make a late surge towards the play offs but what really gets me salivating is next season.

If Ollie has got them playing like this after a few weeks in mid season when we were so poor before he came, it will be incredible to see what he can do after a full pre season with these players and further signings.
Posted by: Bristol Mariner, February 12, 2020, 10:38am; Reply: 14
Quoted from GollyGTFC
Since the fourth tier returned to 24 teams for the 1995/96 season the team finishing in the final play-off place (7th) has achieved an average of 71.29 points with an average goal difference of +13.08. The highest points achieved for 7th was 78 points by Wycombe in 2008 and the lowest was 66 points by Lincoln in 2006.

Exactly half of those 24 seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with either 71 or 72 points. 8 seasons the 7th placed team finished with 70 or less points. Only 4 of the seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with more than 72 points (2004- 74 pts, 2008- 78 pts, 2016- 75 pts & 2018- 75 pts).

So, could we reach the play-offs? Colchester in 5th have the lowest points per game out of the top 7. They are heading for 72 points if their current points per game could be maintained. Could we realistically reach 72 points?

We've got 38 points from our first 31 matches. So to make 72 points we would need 34 points from our last 15 matches or 2.26 points per game. Since January 1st we have 15 points from 9 matches or 1.66 points per game.

That's 10 wins, 4 draws & 1 loss or 11 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses from 15 matches and even then 72 points isn't always enough. Probably not realistic, but who knows how the rest of the season will play out? Maybe it will take less than 72. Maybe 72 won't be enough.

We probably need to get 10 points from the rest of February (win all 3 home games & a point at Swindon) and see how the table looks on 1st March. Our next 2 away games (Swindon & Plymouth) are probably the most difficult left- Crewe might possibly be already promoted when we go there for our final away match.

Whatever we should be targeting a comfortable top half finish and a positive goal difference. We've only had 1 top half finish in our last 14 EFL seasons and none in our last 7 EFL seasons. The rest of the season is a good opportunity to correct that terrible statistic and build momentum for a promotion push next season.



Nope, but next season will be different
Posted by: horsforthmariner, February 12, 2020, 10:43am; Reply: 15
To put it into context 2.26 pts per game would lead to a 103 point season. So I think the play offs are beyond us. I'd like us to finish top half and above Scunthorpe that would be a good finish to the season.
Posted by: Mariner_09, February 12, 2020, 10:50am; Reply: 16
Since Jolley was sacked, the season has been one of missed opportunities, had we finished the umpteen chances we had, in the games Limbrick managed, against Cheltenham, Scunny, Carlisle and Macclesfield and then converted good positions and leads into wins against Crawley, Orient and FGR we'd now have 16 more points and we'd be 6th!

For me, that shows as much as anything that there isn't much in the league and we maybe need a bit more ruthlessness in front of goal and we'll be right up there.
Posted by: horsforthmariner, February 12, 2020, 10:55am; Reply: 17
Next season I'm getting some cash on us becoming champions
Posted by: Abdul19, February 12, 2020, 11:03am; Reply: 18
Think it's too much to ask but it's going to be entertaining either way (scored 11, conceded 9 in the last 5!)

Hopefully next season will see a big push (and a few less errors at the back!)
Posted by: GollyGTFC, February 12, 2020, 11:08am; Reply: 19
Personally I think there are only 12 teams left with any chance of promotion/play-offs- the top 10 and Newport (13th) and ourselves (16th) as outsiders due to having multiple games in hand. I think the 3 automatic promotion spots will all go to teams in the current top 4 (Swindon, Exeter, Crewe & Plymouth) with 1 having to settle for the play-offs.

So, that leaves 8 clubs battling for 3 play-off positions...

Colchester - P 33 Pts 52
Northampton - P 32 Pts 52
Cheltenham - P 31 Pts 51
Bradford - P 33 Pts 51
Port Vale - P 33 Pts 51
Forest Green - P 33 Pts 45
Newport - P 30 Pts 40
Grimsby - P 31 Pts 38

If you take all League 2 club's form in 2020 and extrapolate that form over their remaining league matches this season then you get this as a final table...

1 Crewe 92 pts (C)
2 Plymouth 89 pts (P)
3 Swindon 88 pts (P)

4 Exeter 88 pts (P/O)
5 Northampton 80 pts (P/O)
6 Cheltenham 77 pts (P/O)
7 Port Vale 76 pts (P/O)

8 Colchester 70 pts
9 Bradford 65 pts
10 Grimsby 63 pts
11 Newport 62 pts
12 Crawley 59 pts
13 Walsall 59 pts
14 Cambridge 55 pts
15 Leyton O 55 pts
16 Salford 54 pts
17 Forest Green 52 pts
18 Carlisle 50 pts
19 Oldham 49 pts
20 Scunthorpe 48 pts
21 Macclesfield 47 pts
22 Morecambe 47 pts
23 Mansfield 44 pts

24 Stevenage 29 pts (R)

Obviously that doesn't take into account who has who left to play and some teams are in good form (Northampton, Port Vale & Cheltenham) and are likely to drop off a bit and some teams are in poor form (Bradford & Forest Green) and are likely to improve a bit.

Worth noting that based on league matches in 2020 we are averaging enough points to achieve 77 points over a full season of 46 matches. Not bad since we are very much a work in progress.

A lot to be optimistic about.
Posted by: GollyGTFC, February 12, 2020, 11:13am; Reply: 20
Quoted from Mariner_09
Since Jolley was sacked, the season has been one of missed opportunities, had we finished the umpteen chances we had, in the games Limbrick managed, against Cheltenham, Scunny, Carlisle and Macclesfield and then converted good positions and leads into wins against Crawley, Orient and FGR we'd now have 16 more points and we'd be 6th!

For me, that shows as much as anything that there isn't much in the league and we maybe need a bit more ruthlessness in front of goal and we'll be right up there.


You might ponder where we would be if Holloway had been appointed a month earlier. We might have got more than a draw at Macclesfield and/or Carlisle and got more than 1 point from the home league matches with Swindon, Scunthorpe & Crawley. Quite feasible based on 2020 results that we might have got another 6 or 7 points from those games.
Posted by: Mighty_Mariner, February 12, 2020, 11:31am; Reply: 21
Quoted from Mariner_09
Since Jolley was sacked, the season has been one of missed opportunities, had we finished the umpteen chances we had, in the games Limbrick managed, against Cheltenham, Scunny, Carlisle and Macclesfield and then converted good positions and leads into wins against Crawley, Orient and FGR we'd now have 16 more points and we'd be 6th!

For me, that shows as much as anything that there isn't much in the league and we maybe need a bit more ruthlessness in front of goal and we'll be right up there.


The thing is with that, it is highly conceivable that should those results have been more positive, we probably wouldn't have Holloway as manager now.
Posted by: Abdul19, February 12, 2020, 11:40am; Reply: 22
Quoted from GollyGTFC

10 Grimsby 63 pts


24 Stevenage 29 pts (R)



Would be happy with that.
Posted by: buckstown, February 12, 2020, 12:01pm; Reply: 23
I’m buoyant but realistic, it’s too late
Might be fun watching for a change though
Posted by: GollyGTFC, February 12, 2020, 12:02pm; Reply: 24
Quoted from Abdul19


Would be happy with that.


Posted by: Hagrid, February 12, 2020, 12:24pm; Reply: 25
Not for me. Next season
Posted by: MarinerMal, February 12, 2020, 12:26pm; Reply: 26
Quoted from buckstown
I’m buoyant but realistic, it’s too late
Might be fun watching for a change though


Fully agree.

However, if a miracle were to happen and we managed to reach 71+ pts and make the play-offs, that is one hell of a run of form to take into them with you.

We'd need to be the form team in the division between now and the end of the season, we may even start the play-offs a close to favourites.
Posted by: acko338, February 12, 2020, 8:04pm; Reply: 27
Happy to go with Ollie's flow and watch players bloom under his tenure.

He seems to have chosen loanees and signings well up.to now.

He is also giving all of the squad a chsnce to impress him so that he has choices for selection.

He believes in expression and ball on the floor, and some of the passing last night (as seen on tv) was a higher standard than Div 2.

Considering that some of the squad have only been here 2 minutes then the future for the rest of this season must be bright.

It's a good time to be a fan !!
Posted by: BobbyCummingsTackle, February 12, 2020, 8:19pm; Reply: 28
There's often (not always) a team that has a fantastic late run and roars into the play offs on a wave of good form. Just saying.
Posted by: Germo66, February 12, 2020, 8:20pm; Reply: 29
We're looking up for change, rather than down. Not enough games left to reach the play offs this season, just going to dream of what's going to happen next season.
Posted by: TownSNAFU5, February 12, 2020, 9:01pm; Reply: 30
We are already preparing for a serious challenge for promotion next season.  Shame that will probably be without Glennon and Benson.
Posted by: Grantham_Mariner, February 12, 2020, 9:11pm; Reply: 31
If, and I don't think we will, do get to the playoffs we would be in such great form we would more than likely win them.


We can't can we ?
Posted by: Mariner Timsky, February 13, 2020, 10:33am; Reply: 32
Let's say we win on Saturday v Morecambe , , ,

That will be 32 Played , , , , ,  10 Won 11 Drawn and 11 Lost , , , , ,  leaving us on 41 Points

If we are saying 72 is the target , , ,

Then with 14 games to play realistically we would be needed to win what 10 of those , , , 9 minimum?

A big ask and would be one hell of a run , , , imagining going into the Play Off's on that kind of form!! , , , yes of course not impossible , , , , ,  but improbable!

Like what has been said already just really enjoying the footy right now and being entertained - I haven't seen a performance like Tuesday for a very very VERY long time as a Town fan and I'm sure many younger than myself never have!  

I will be more than happy with a finish around 13th , , , that'll will do nicely
Posted by: Mayaman, February 13, 2020, 10:47am; Reply: 33
Remember when Liverpool were 3 nil down against Milan.  That was an impossible ask to come back in 45 minutes against a side renowned for their defence. I'd say it's highly unlikely but you never know.
Posted by: Heisenberg, February 13, 2020, 11:05am; Reply: 34
Quoted from TownSNAFU5
We are already preparing for a serious challenge for promotion next season.  Shame that will probably be without Glennon and Benson.


Maybe we have a chance of getting them for the full season?  If they're not going to press on into Burnley's 1st team any time soon (I'm guessing here, and maybe I'm wrong about that), maybe the club would deem us as a good option for them to progress further?  Knowing Ollie, he'll have had this discussion already if he's interested in them, which I'm sure he is.
Posted by: Abdul19, February 13, 2020, 11:08am; Reply: 35
Yes I think you're right. My main worry on that front would be if a club in a higher league were interested Burnley would rather send them there instead.
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