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Play-offs?

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diehardmariner
February 12, 2020, 10:27am Report to Moderator
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I put a couple of bets on at the beginning of the season, trouble is I don't remember what the odds were then, I'm old with a bad memory, and I don't even know which online bookie I placed the bets with.  



I got us at 50/1 to win the league and 10/1 to be promoted.  At the time both felt great value...
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Black_and_White_Bear
February 12, 2020, 10:30am Report to Moderator

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Quoted from diehardmariner


I got us at 50/1 to win the league and 10/1 to be promoted.  At the time both felt great value...


That rang a bell, I think I got 60/1 to win the League, not sure what the other bet was that I put on, maybe to get in the playoffs.  One thing I do remember was I put a tenner on each bet.


STABILIS
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toontown
February 12, 2020, 10:34am Report to Moderator
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Quoted from ginnywings
It was a possibility but we have dropped too many points from promising positions. Leading against Orient, Crawley and FGR, but only managed 2 points from those games. FGR have only taken 1 point from their last 5 or 6, the pity being it was against us. Lost to Exeter when we were the better side. Could have got a last minute winner at Bradford, which was another draw. Could have been different with a bit more luck but i think it's too big an ask now.


Exactly how I see it ginny. The late equaliser by orient, the desperately unlucky defeat to Exeter and that save in the last seconds on the line by Bradford seem more costly now. Too much to do now.
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lew chaterleys lover
February 12, 2020, 10:38am Report to Moderator
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Nothing is impossible, at least until it is impossible, but we have about a dozen teams better placed who will be thinking the same. Nothing would give me greater pleasure to make a late surge towards the play offs but what really gets me salivating is next season.

If Ollie has got them playing like this after a few weeks in mid season when we were so poor before he came, it will be incredible to see what he can do after a full pre season with these players and further signings.
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Bristol Mariner
February 12, 2020, 10:38am Report to Moderator

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Quoted from GollyGTFC
Since the fourth tier returned to 24 teams for the 1995/96 season the team finishing in the final play-off place (7th) has achieved an average of 71.29 points with an average goal difference of +13.08. The highest points achieved for 7th was 78 points by Wycombe in 2008 and the lowest was 66 points by Lincoln in 2006.

Exactly half of those 24 seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with either 71 or 72 points. 8 seasons the 7th placed team finished with 70 or less points. Only 4 of the seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with more than 72 points (2004- 74 pts, 2008- 78 pts, 2016- 75 pts & 2018- 75 pts).

So, could we reach the play-offs? Colchester in 5th have the lowest points per game out of the top 7. They are heading for 72 points if their current points per game could be maintained. Could we realistically reach 72 points?

We've got 38 points from our first 31 matches. So to make 72 points we would need 34 points from our last 15 matches or 2.26 points per game. Since January 1st we have 15 points from 9 matches or 1.66 points per game.

That's 10 wins, 4 draws & 1 loss or 11 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses from 15 matches and even then 72 points isn't always enough. Probably not realistic, but who knows how the rest of the season will play out? Maybe it will take less than 72. Maybe 72 won't be enough.

We probably need to get 10 points from the rest of February (win all 3 home games & a point at Swindon) and see how the table looks on 1st March. Our next 2 away games (Swindon & Plymouth) are probably the most difficult left- Crewe might possibly be already promoted when we go there for our final away match.

Whatever we should be targeting a comfortable top half finish and a positive goal difference. We've only had 1 top half finish in our last 14 EFL seasons and none in our last 7 EFL seasons. The rest of the season is a good opportunity to correct that terrible statistic and build momentum for a promotion push next season.



Nope, but next season will be different


GTFC Exile, Bristol Mariners
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horsforthmariner
February 12, 2020, 10:43am Report to Moderator
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To put it into context 2.26 pts per game would lead to a 103 point season. So I think the play offs are beyond us. I'd like us to finish top half and above Scunthorpe that would be a good finish to the season.
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Mariner_09
February 12, 2020, 10:50am Report to Moderator
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Since Jolley was sacked, the season has been one of missed opportunities, had we finished the umpteen chances we had, in the games Limbrick managed, against Cheltenham, Scunny, Carlisle and Macclesfield and then converted good positions and leads into wins against Crawley, Orient and FGR we'd now have 16 more points and we'd be 6th!

For me, that shows as much as anything that there isn't much in the league and we maybe need a bit more ruthlessness in front of goal and we'll be right up there.


Macca, Tait, Toto, Gowling, Robertson, Arnold, Dis, Clay, Nolan, Podge, Omar.

The best starting XI in my lifetime.
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horsforthmariner
February 12, 2020, 10:55am Report to Moderator
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Next season I'm getting some cash on us becoming champions
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Abdul19
February 12, 2020, 11:03am Report to Moderator

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Think it's too much to ask but it's going to be entertaining either way (scored 11, conceded 9 in the last 5!)

Hopefully next season will see a big push (and a few less errors at the back!)


“I hit the ball as though it owed me money.”
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GollyGTFC
February 12, 2020, 11:08am Report to Moderator

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Personally I think there are only 12 teams left with any chance of promotion/play-offs- the top 10 and Newport (13th) and ourselves (16th) as outsiders due to having multiple games in hand. I think the 3 automatic promotion spots will all go to teams in the current top 4 (Swindon, Exeter, Crewe & Plymouth) with 1 having to settle for the play-offs.

So, that leaves 8 clubs battling for 3 play-off positions...

Colchester - P 33 Pts 52
Northampton - P 32 Pts 52
Cheltenham - P 31 Pts 51
Bradford - P 33 Pts 51
Port Vale - P 33 Pts 51
Forest Green - P 33 Pts 45
Newport - P 30 Pts 40
Grimsby - P 31 Pts 38

If you take all League 2 club's form in 2020 and extrapolate that form over their remaining league matches this season then you get this as a final table...

1 Crewe 92 pts (C)
2 Plymouth 89 pts (P)
3 Swindon 88 pts (P)

4 Exeter 88 pts (P/O)
5 Northampton 80 pts (P/O)
6 Cheltenham 77 pts (P/O)
7 Port Vale 76 pts (P/O)

8 Colchester 70 pts
9 Bradford 65 pts
10 Grimsby 63 pts
11 Newport 62 pts
12 Crawley 59 pts
13 Walsall 59 pts
14 Cambridge 55 pts
15 Leyton O 55 pts
16 Salford 54 pts
17 Forest Green 52 pts
18 Carlisle 50 pts
19 Oldham 49 pts
20 Scunthorpe 48 pts
21 Macclesfield 47 pts
22 Morecambe 47 pts
23 Mansfield 44 pts

24 Stevenage 29 pts (R)

Obviously that doesn't take into account who has who left to play and some teams are in good form (Northampton, Port Vale & Cheltenham) and are likely to drop off a bit and some teams are in poor form (Bradford & Forest Green) and are likely to improve a bit.

Worth noting that based on league matches in 2020 we are averaging enough points to achieve 77 points over a full season of 46 matches. Not bad since we are very much a work in progress.

A lot to be optimistic about.
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