Play-offs?

Quoted from 123614

I put a couple of bets on at the beginning of the season, trouble is I don't remember what the odds were then, I'm old with a bad memory, and I don't even know which online bookie I placed the bets with.  

Quoted from diehardmariner

I got us at 50/1 to win the league and 10/1 to be promoted.  At the time both felt great value...

Quoted from ginnywings

It was a possibility but we have dropped too many points from promising positions. Leading against Orient, Crawley and FGR, but only managed 2 points from those games. FGR have only taken 1 point from their last 5 or 6, the pity being it was against us. Lost to Exeter when we were the better side. Could have got a last minute winner at Bradford, which was another draw. Could have been different with a bit more luck but i think it's too big an ask now.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Since the fourth tier returned to 24 teams for the 1995/96 season the team finishing in the final play-off place (7th) has achieved an average of 71.29 points with an average goal difference of +13.08. The highest points achieved for 7th was 78 points by Wycombe in 2008 and the lowest was 66 points by Lincoln in 2006.

Exactly half of those 24 seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with either 71 or 72 points. 8 seasons the 7th placed team finished with 70 or less points. Only 4 of the seasons saw the 7th placed team finishing with more than 72 points (2004- 74 pts, 2008- 78 pts, 2016- 75 pts & 2018- 75 pts).

So, could we reach the play-offs? Colchester in 5th have the lowest points per game out of the top 7. They are heading for 72 points if their current points per game could be maintained. Could we realistically reach 72 points?

We've got 38 points from our first 31 matches. So to make 72 points we would need 34 points from our last 15 matches or 2.26 points per game. Since January 1st we have 15 points from 9 matches or 1.66 points per game.

That's 10 wins, 4 draws & 1 loss or 11 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses from 15 matches and even then 72 points isn't always enough. Probably not realistic, but who knows how the rest of the season will play out? Maybe it will take less than 72. Maybe 72 won't be enough.

We probably need to get 10 points from the rest of February (win all 3 home games & a point at Swindon) and see how the table looks on 1st March. Our next 2 away games (Swindon & Plymouth) are probably the most difficult left- Crewe might possibly be already promoted when we go there for our final away match.

Whatever we should be targeting a comfortable top half finish and a positive goal difference. We've only had 1 top half finish in our last 14 EFL seasons and none in our last 7 EFL seasons. The rest of the season is a good opportunity to correct that terrible statistic and build momentum for a promotion push next season.