An objective view on Dave Artell

I can’t lie, leaving BP today I was as angry as I have been in a long, long time about those in black and white shirts, Danny Rose 100% excepted and absolved of any association with today’s latest shít show. He deserves to be a part of this no more than the fans do.

But having had the benefit of a 90 minute drive home, I’ve been able to give the situation some thought and consideration with with most of the raw emotion taken out of the equation. So let me start by saying that I think Dave Artell is probably a lovely bloke; he’s had some incredibly tough, even tragic events to contend with in his short time at the club and he’s handled them with compassion and dignity. Good on him for that.

But we are now, as a club, in a real pickle, and 21 goals conceded in 5 home games is a simply ridiculous stat that suggests something is seriously amiss somewhere. I want to make an objective assessment of the state of things; no aggression, no insults, just facts and figures. Spoiler alert; it ain’t good.

Let’s be fair though, the reason we were looking for a manager back in November is because Hurst had struggled to get a tune out of the team. So Artell inherited something somewhat dysfunctional, I think we can agree on that. The last few weeks under Hurst were not good, and it’s important not to re-write history. Here’s Hurst’s high-level record this season when he was sacked, incidentally after we played Donny. GF = “goals for”, GA = “goals against”.

Win % - 18.8%
PPG - 0.88
GF / game - 1.25
GA / game - 1.63

That’s not a great record by any stretch of the imagination, and it’s not surprising that it cost Hurst his job. On average, we were losing games by 0.38 goals.

And so we looked to Dave Artell to improve our fortunes. Let’s have a look at his record to date:

Win % - 15.4%
PPG - 0.77
GF / game - 1.31
GA / game - 2.13

Credit where it is due, one of the metrics has improved. Under Artell, we’ve scored 0.06 more goals per game than we did under Hurst this season. But that marginal improvement is absolutely dwarfed by what’s happened up the other end - under Artell we’re conceding 0.5 goals more per game than under the manager who was sacked. And that’s before you consider that over our last 6 games, we’ve conceded 3.5 goals per game on average, despite a clean sheet in one of those matches.

Ultimately, under Artell we’re winning a markedly fewer % of games, picking up less points on average than the man he replaced, and losing games by a much larger average margin (0.82 vs 0.38 ). Of course, comparing against Hurst is a small sample, but we’re in luck - one thing this club hasn’t lacked this century is struggling managers, so let’s have a look at Artell’s record versus every Town manager either sacked or whom resigned amidst poor performance (win ratio followed by points per game).

Dave Artell - 15.4% - 0.77
Lennie Lawrence - 28.5% - 1.32
Paul Groves - 23.3% - 1.00
Nicky Law - 25.0% - 0.92
Graham Rodger - 23.5% - 0.94
Alan Buckley iii - 34.0% - 1.44
Mike Newell - 24.5% - 0.94
Neil Woods - 25.4% - 1.18
Marcus Bignot - 33.3% - 1.26
Russell Slade ii - 25.6% - 1.05
Michael Jolley - 36.7% - 1.30
I*n H******y - 28.9% - 1.11
Paul Hurst ii - 37.7% - 1.37

It’s important to remember that not all of those managerial tenures were wholly awful. Hurst of course delivered tangible success before he got sacked, Jolley did ok with his hands behind his back, and Buckley’s third reign looks a lot better in statistical terms than it might live in our collective memories. But there are also some incredibly shambolic efforts in there too.

Nicky Law. Graham Rodger. Newell. Bignot. All of them had their own, uniquely shambolic qualities to what were throughly disastrous times in the Town dugout. And yet Artell’s record is meaningfully worse than all of them. That is quite profound.

Marcus Bignot, remembered quite correctly as a complete buffoon, had a win % well over 2x better than Artell’s. In fact, Artell would have to win the next 2 just to match Nicky Law’s win ratio. And that doesn’t even seem remotely likely. In figurative terms, Artell is the smallest of the dwarves, at a time when we need giants.

I’m not overly keen on calling for people to lose their job, but what we are witnessing in the here and now is outstandingly poor in the context of the club’s recent history; a recent history which has in itself been outstandingly poor.

This club, this town, cannot afford to lose its league status for a third time. To do so would be absolutely catastrophic. It has to be recognised that conceding 21 goals in 6 games, or 5 home games, is not normal. It can’t be acceptable.

We have some huge fixtures coming up, not least our next home game against Forest Green in two weeks. A change in first-team management needs to be made immediately in order for any successor, temporary or otherwise, to prepare accordingly.

I have nothing against Dave Artell personally, but the stats bear it out.

This can’t continue.

I really wanted Artell to do well, but he’s in a right situation here. We are appalling.

Hurst would have had us in the same situation, I’ve no doubt. The reason?  His squad.

Nonetheless, finger pointing doesn’t help. We need a win at Morecambe. Who here thinks we’ll get one? I’d hazard a guess it’ll be very close to 0% right now.

Once again just makes me think that Jolley was an alright manager and coming here ruined his career

What a sad state of affairs this is, how do we end up this bad without even being able to really pinpoint anything weve done massively wrong. At least when we used to sign a bunch of alcaholic journeymen on clear downward trajectories in their careers and have them train on a muddy bog with penny floaters it was easy to accept why we were crap

Good post, and given our owners claim to be data driven, you can’t really argue against it. The thrashing today wasn’t just against our rivals, but relegation rivals and at home. It’s horrendous.

Also looking at some of the names even most of them have never managed in football again GTFC is a managerial grave yard.
I think we have a reputation as that in the game so we either get managers with no experience, urine heads or managers who have been out the game for a while.

One thing not factored in this is context. Only 4 games ago, we lost Conteh, our ball playing DM who had pretty solid stats. We had one game with Green that went badly, then Thompson came in, we did well. We played top of the league, out of the league budget Stockport and were undone by individual errors (Clifton/Gnahoua, Holahan, Maher/Cartwright), then we're without Thompson again, and it's bad.

Hunt has just come back into contention (returned to training after injury). He hasn't really had time with his squad to execute any form of plan.

Things are shite right now, but timing is also a key thing. Hurst for his last game had lost faith in Eastwood and brought in Cartwright, and the fruits of that were not realised under him. Vernam was unavailable under Hurst, which didn't help him also.

In 2 weeks, we'll likely have a match sharp Vernam, Hunt back, new signings settled, and I'm hoping Thompson fit. Doing nothing doesn't mean there is no change, it is the exact situation any new gaffer would have. DA has shown as recently as Accrington that there is green shoots. We also went toe to toe with Notts County and a solid performance against MK.

Numbers don't always give full context and with any sacking decision, you cannot go purely by stats, but on the question, in 2 weeks time with exactly the same squad, will we have more chance of picking up points with a new manager or this one.

I personally think we can still pick up those points. We aren't going to be winning games 1 - 0. We just do not have the squad for it. So we'll be losing more, and winning some, and we just got to get enough of those wins on the board to keep our distance. I'm in the minority, and obviously as an exile, I couldn't attend today, so didn't have the same bruises as many have had.

I've also had a 90 minute drive home followed by another 45 minutes to go see a band in Leicester. Prior to being entertained and melodiously soothed by three very enthusiastic and happy Dutch people, I wanted him sacked and evicted from the Town boundaries immediately. One gig and a whisky later I can objectively say I just want him sacked. Tomorrow or Monday would be fine.

It doesn't matter how detailed your recruitment process is there is always the risk of selecting the wrong candidate. You can have multi level interviews, psychometric testing, role play observation and tarot card readings and you can still get it wrong.

Artell has proven to be the wrong candidate. Having been here for the best part of three months and 12 games there has been an objectively proven decline in performance with nothing indicating that this will change.
Subjectively, every time the ball comes in our box now I think we're likely to concede. We are defensively inept, organisationally chaotic and solution deficient.

I think our current owners are getting quite a lot of undeserved stick for this. Personally, I hope they do find a way to;
- Deal with the excrement that's being thrown their way;
- Continue to develop the infrastructure that might allow this club some degree of success and sustainability in the future;
- Own the mistake that's been made and rectify it at the earliest opportunity.

At this stage I'm wondering whether we start another fundraiser and offer some temporarily out of work Championship level manager £10,000 a game until the end of season on the proviso we stay up. £150,000 for 3 months work might be peanuts to them but I've had another whisky and am recognising the absolute desperation of our situation. Please, not again.

Quoted from AncientExiledMariner

One thing not factored in this is context. Only 4 games ago, we lost Conteh, our ball playing DM who had pretty solid stats. We had one game with Green that went badly, then Thompson came in, we did well. We played top of the league, out of the league budget Stockport and were undone by individual errors (Clifton/Gnoahoua, Holahan, Maher/Cartwright), then we're without Thompson again, and it's bad.

Hunt has just come back into contention (returned to training after injury). He hasn't really had time with his squad to execute any form of plan.

Things are shite right now, but timing is also a key thing. Hurst for his last game had lost faith in Eastwood and brought in Cartwright, and the fruits of that were not realised under him. Vernam was unavailable under Hurst, which didn't help him also.

In 2 weeks, we'll likely have a match sharp Vernam, Hunt back, new signings settled, and I'm hoping Thompson fit. Doing nothing doesn't mean there is no change, it is the exact situation any new gaffer would have. DA has shown as recently as Accrington that there is green shoots. We also went toe to toe with Notts County and a solid performance against MK.

Numbers don't always give full context and with any sacking decision, you cannot go purely by stats, but on the question, in 2 weeks time with exactly the same squad, will we have more chance of picking up points with a new manager or this one.

I personally think we can still pick up those points. We aren't going to be winning games 1 - 0. We just do not have the squad for it. So we'll be losing more, and winning some, and we just got to get enough of those wins on the board to keep our distance. I'm in the minority, and obviously as an exile, I couldn't attend today, so didn't have the same bruises as many have had.

I presume exile means you haven’t been to recent games. A pair of eyes beats stats and any attempt at semi rational analysis from a distance..

Quoted from HerveJosse

I presume exile means you haven’t been to recent games. A pair of eyes beats stats and any attempt at semi rational analysis from a distance..

To counter that, not being at the games distances myself from the emotional merry go round where the manager alternates between being good and should immediately be sacked right now every week. The one where match day everything is a catastrophe and 2 days later, we get the "maybe I overreacted" posts. Most at the game blamed Cartwright for the goal when Maher refusing the pass put us in the excrement. Most who go to the game are desperate for Holahan to start despite the fact his half-arsed defending has played a part in several goals this season. Going to games can help, but it seems I'm distanced from the hive mind right now.

Of course, the fact you went for the ad hominem attack shows you are struggling to counter my points.

Quoted from AncientExiledMariner

To counter that, not being at the games distances myself from the emotional merry go round where the manager alternates between being good and should immediately be sacked right now every week. The one where match day everything is a catastrophe and 2 days later, we get the "maybe I overreacted" posts. Most at the game blamed Cartwright for the goal when Maher refusing the pass put us in the excrement. Most who go to the game are desperate for Holahan to start despite the fact his half-arsed defending has played a part in several goals this season. Going to games can help, but it seems I'm distanced from the hive mind right now.

Of course, the fact you went for the ad hominem attack shows you are struggling to counter my points.

But people aren't overreacting on this occasion. I live in Australia, so really detached from the emotional merry-go-round that can sometimes kick in and there are plenty of times when what you're saying is true. Not this time.

There will be no one posting that they overreacted in a couple of days time. We lost 5-1 at home to another relegation candidate. It wasn't a one-off either. The result fell within what is the worst run of games I can remember as a Grimsby fan. We've had some dross over the years but we've genuinely reached new levels of ineptitude. 22 goals conceded in 6 games is staggeringly bad.