League 2 2023/24 Odds

Wrexham 7/2
Stockport 5/1
Notts County 6/1
Gillingham 10/1
Bradford 12/1
MK Dons 14/1
Salford 14/1
Mansfield 16/1
Doncaster 22/1
Accrington 25/1
Swindon 25/1
Walsall 25/1
Barrow 33/1
Forest Green 33/1
Grimsby 33/1
Morecambe 33/1
Newport 33/1
Tranmere 33/1
AFC Wimbledon 40/1
Crewe 50/1
Sutton 50/1
Colchester 66/1
Crawley 80/1
Harrogate 100/1

Is that for the title Les or promotion?

No surprise from the bookies but some of those are just baffling.

Gillingham offered nothing to suggest a price of 10's.  Initial surge after their influx of January players but then incredibly inconsistent.

Donny ended the season in awful form, I know McCann is held in high esteem by their fanbase (what's left of it anyway!) but they looked dreadful at their place and definitely not a happy camp.  Richard Wood is a good player but at 38 you've got to ask questions over how much longer he can go on.  

I think there will be less dross this time around and a lot of sides with ambitions to achieve, I'd go as far as saying I can see Donny struggling.

Total guesswork at this stage, isn't it. The Fenty shadow still looms large as far as the bookies are concerned. More fool them.

Quoted from diehardmariner

Gillingham offered nothing to suggest a price of 10's.  Initial surge after their influx of January players but then incredibly inconsistent.

Think they were top 7 over the course of the second half of the season, weren't they? They'll be spending again this window, so it makes sense the bookies will put them as one of the faves.

Pretty much a list of teams based on attendance/support as you’d expect at this time of the season. There’s no way bookies will put any of the top 3 any higher odds with the potential number of bets that can be placed. Gillingham I’d suggest have had a big volume of bets already given their end of season form and investment. The only surprise for me are Mansfield as their following isn’t quite at the level of those above them and from them down the Tranmere you can pretty much throw a blanket over them odds wise as they’re pretty interchangeable. All these odds are showing is bookies scared of betting volume rather than anything else.

Quoted from diehardmariner

No surprise from the bookies but some of those are just baffling.

Gillingham offered nothing to suggest a price of 10's.  Initial surge after their influx of January players but then incredibly inconsistent.

Donny ended the season in awful form, I know McCann is held in high esteem by their fanbase (what's left of it anyway!) but they looked dreadful at their place and definitely not a happy camp.  Richard Wood is a good player but at 38 you've got to ask questions over how much longer he can go on.  

I think there will be less dross this time around and a lot of sides with ambitions to achieve, I'd go as far as saying I can see Donny struggling.

I know a few Donny fans and they are very optimistic. The owner has been focusing on the rugby team for the past few years and lost interest in the football side. After January he pledged to chuck some money at it this year. They reckon Mccan wouldn’t be there unless they have a really decent budget.

I see the big spenders are at the top.

Has anyone actually signed anyone yet. How can they come up with any odds based on guesswork??

Forest Green at 33's represents a little bit of value personally, don't think they'll struggle at all.

Swindon for me at 25s...  

Wonder what Stevenage & Carlisle were last season ?
Guessing longer odds than us this time out.

Ludicrous odds, be interesting to see what those odds look like at the end of the transfer window and compare

Quoted from mimma

Is that for the title Les or promotion?

The title.

All seem fairly sensible to me. As others have said it's guess work based on an estimate of what they'll do in the window.
I'm surprised Wrexham are as high as 7/2 cos they'll be signing some very very good players.

I know he is a bit daft but Steve Evans was on a podcast this week talking about how they got promoted.

He actually comes over well once you get over all the pantomine villain stuff , but more interestingly he said at the start of last season he recognised Stevenage could not compete with other clubs in terms of budget and building a squad compared  to a lot of the teams in league 2 but effectively 'loaded up 'the budget  on a quality first 11 with little after that and focused on keeping them fit and nursing players through with pretty little training .

It worked , and he's been pretty succesful lower down .
I am not suggesting we should do that , or that it would work all the time , but it shows how variably a budget can be used and one of the reasons why the table will no way reflect that odds table .

Quoted from Mappers

I know he is a bit daft but Steve Evans was on a podcast this week talking about how they got promoted.

He actually comes over well once you get over all the pantomine villain stuff , but more interestingly he said at the start of last season he recognised Stevenage could not compete with other clubs in terms of budget and building a squad compared  to a lot of the teams in league 2 but effectively 'loaded up 'the budget  on a quality first 11 with little after that and focused on keeping them fit and nursing players through with pretty little training .

It worked , and he's been pretty succesful lower down .
I am not suggesting we should do that , or that it would work all the time , but it shows how variably a budget can be used and one of the reasons why the table will no way reflect that odds table .

Hurst's way has always been to have a core of 16-18 players and then bulk out the squad with loanees who we traditionally won't be paying much for, so we're kind of following it already.

I'd look at it like this, what are the positions that make the single biggest difference in and of themselves? Goalkeeper and centre forward are the answers. If you push the boat out for those two positions, add it to the other 8-9, which are already, at the very least, competitive against anyone in this league and I think that's a lot of those points made up already.

Then we fill out the side/squad with equivalents of current players who are more physical. Having seen Wednesday, Luton and Carlisle go up this weekend, it seems like being big and physical is a necessity to compete at the sharp end of any division within the League. Hurst has alluded to that in interviews throughout the season so he'll be one step ahead of us on that one.

Long time since we won a league.  

Quoted from Mappers

I know he is a bit daft but Steve Evans was on a podcast this week talking about how they got promoted.

He actually comes over well once you get over all the pantomine villain stuff , but more interestingly he said at the start of last season he recognised Stevenage could not compete with other clubs in terms of budget and building a squad compared  to a lot of the teams in league 2 but effectively 'loaded up 'the budget  on a quality first 11 with little after that and focused on keeping them fit and nursing players through with pretty little training .

It worked , and he's been pretty succesful lower down .
I am not suggesting we should do that , or that it would work all the time , but it shows how variably a budget can be used and one of the reasons why the table will no way reflect that odds table .

Heard that and agree he does come across well, especially when he has the opportunity to measure his responses.  It's when he's caught on the cuff that his true colours shine through.  

He's also full of complete shite.  Stevenage will have had a decent budget for a squad, not just a bare eleven.  He wouldn't have entertained going to a club who were looking to do it on a shoestring.  Regardless of any personal opinions of him, he's a good manager with good stock.  He can afford to turn down offers that look too tricky.  

Yet to hear a player speak well of him, yet they all universally say that he's great at getting a tune out of players.  Even if they all hate him.  That's an art in itself.

Quoted from Son of Cod

Think they were top 7 over the course of the second half of the season, weren't they? They'll be spending again this window, so it makes sense the bookies will put them as one of the faves.

Massively weighted by 19 points out of 24 after their new signings came in from mid-Jan to late-Feb.  After that run, which got them clear,  22 points out of 45.  The first run is title-winning form, at a canter too.  The run towards the end of the season is higher mid-table form, would have got them 66 points over the course of the season.  Still 9 points off the top 7 and only 5 points above us.

Guess you can cut these runs of forms as many ways as you want, they did enough to get out of the state they were in but I'm not sure it's enough to suggest they are serious challengers based on it.

Quoted from GrimRob

Long time since we won a league.  

1980

Absolutely pointless piffle based on no/few signings and someone’s opinion.

Quoted from chaos33

Absolutely pointless piffle based on no/few signings and someone’s opinion.

However, based on probable budgets/form so there is some rationale behind the odds.

Donny already made some good signings , a decent manager and the chairman’s backing them this year. Gillingham have big money backers, probably as rich as any in the EFL so will bring in quality.Looks a tougher league next season.

I'd never back town to win the league because I think its too unrealistic. But I will be putting us in my lucky 15 to be promoted again  
Out of the 4 teams this season I got 2 so I get my money back.

So of the last four teams to be promoted from the National League three are placed 1.2 and 3 and the fourth is placed sixteenth.

The fourth did knock the 1st and 3rd out in last years play offs and did the double over the 2nd in the league this year.

Quoted from Mariner_09

Hurst's way has always been to have a core of 16-18 players and then bulk out the squad with loanees who we traditionally won't be paying much for, so we're kind of following it already.

I'd look at it like this, what are the positions that make the single biggest difference in and of themselves? Goalkeeper and centre forward are the answers. If you push the boat out for those two positions, add it to the other 8-9, which are already, at the very least, competitive against anyone in this league and I think that's a lot of those points made up already.

Then we fill out the side/squad with equivalents of current players who are more physical. Having seen Wednesday, Luton and Carlisle go up this weekend, it seems like being big and physical is a necessity to compete at the sharp end of any division within the League. Hurst has alluded to that in interviews throughout the season so he'll be one step ahead of us on that one.

I actually thought in the main, over the last couple of seasons Hurst has built more of a well rounded squad , based on a larger pool of players all at a more similiar level on what you would assume similiar wages . Last season it was pretty much 2 players for very position , nip and tuck who was better - Glennon/Amos , Waterfall,Maher,Smith and Pearson . Green /Morris . Holahan/ Clifton  etc etc you would say we were pretty heavy squad wise last season ; the loans probably bulked it out to 25-30 players for most of the season .

Quoted from diehardmariner

Heard that and agree he does come across well, especially when he has the opportunity to measure his responses.  It's when he's caught on the cuff that his true colours shine through.  

He's also full of complete shite.  Stevenage will have had a decent budget for a squad, not just a bare eleven.  He wouldn't have entertained going to a club who were looking to do it on a shoestring.  Regardless of any personal opinions of him, he's a good manager with good stock.  He can afford to turn down offers that look too tricky.  

Yet to hear a player speak well of him, yet they all universally say that he's great at getting a tune out of players.  Even if they all hate him.  That's an art in itself.

Yeah , I don't know how he does it as players celebrate when he leaves their club .

Quoted from thefish

However, based on probable budgets/form so there is some rationale behind the odds.

‘Probable form’?? There’s no such thing. It’s based on an assessment of last season, a guess at budgets and a perception of ‘bigness’ or a relative idea of a ‘natural level’ for clubs.

Until clubs have assembled squads, it’s guesswork odds, not science.

Quoted from chaos33

‘Probable form’?? There’s no such thing. It’s based on an assessment of last season, a guess at budgets and a perception of ‘bigness’ or a relative idea of a ‘natural level’ for clubs.

Until clubs have assembled squads, it’s guesswork odds, not science.

The probable fits with the word ‘budget’… and probably should’ve read ‘best estimate’ as I’m sure bookies are only estimating.

At least barring a disaster there should not be any worries about a struggle at the wrong end , already shaping up with regards basket case clubs or one's with little investment /small crowds

Baskets
Morecambe
Crawley

Low level investment
Crewe
Sutton
Newport
Harrogate

Apart from those 6 teams everyone will have realistic expectations of play-offs or automatic , I thought AFC Wimbledon would struggle but they have made a couple of good early signings so might do a bit better .

Three teams to watch out for , for me are : Barrow , Donny and Gillingham - when people do their annual predictions it will be -Wrexham,Stockport,Bradford and Notts to go up / automatic but it wont happen .

I am quite relaxed as to how we do , there is going to be suprise packages , so why can't one of them be us ?

But then I would take a similiar finish to last season if there is improvement and a better clarity to our play .

Tough league next season , but one to look forward to with hope of progress both on and off the pitch .

Morecambe is a strange one. They went into detail of finances and how this season coming it'll be a shoe string budget and they couldn't offer a new contract to anyone..  Then 12 days later they announced they'd have the best league 2 budget they've ever had? - The 2nd one coming directly from the company who have the club up for sale.

Quoted from lukeo

Morecambe is a strange one. They went into detail of finances and how this season coming it'll be a shoe string budget and they couldn't offer a new contract to anyone..  Then 12 days later they announced they'd have the best league 2 budget they've ever had? - The 2nd one coming directly from the company who have the club up for sale.

When was they last in league 2? Inflation will mean any meaningful budget will be their biggest in this division ever most likely.

They will be lower end budget wise .

A couple of more interesting one's are MK Dons & FGR

Not sure if Vince is going to invest as he has done in the past ,is his interest lowering ?

MK - like the club that bloke that owns them is plain weird - sure he had some sort of face off with some of their followers at the end of the season ; whether they throw much at it will be interesting . They seem a bit of a yo - yo team .

Quoted from toontown

When was they last in league 2? Inflation will mean any meaningful budget will be their biggest in this division ever most likely.

Ah very clever if true!