League Two - expected goals table

An interesting piece of data from the excellent [url=https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/league-2/]Experimental 361[/url], showing a revised League Two table:

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/2021-01-09-4-l2.png[/img]
Of all the sides in the division, Town have comfortably the biggest swing in expected goals versus actual goals for and against. In effect, we should have scored more and conceded far fewer than we in fact have, which would have left us 5 goals better off in terms of overall GD, five points and 5 places above where were we currently find outselves.

No great surprises in an attacking sense; it's clear with or without this data that we need someone far more dangerous in and around the box. Interestingly, it does potentially offer a slight defence of the much malgined midfield - whilst service and our defensive shape needs improvement it very much appears to be the sharp ends of the pitch where it's going spectacularly wrong.

I'm hopeful that Sam Habergham will bring us some much needed solidity down the left, however there's increasingly a case for shaking up the centre back partnership. Who of Pollock and Waterfall would you take out? That's a tough call, but I don't think either have done enough to be certain of their shirt in the time Hurst has been watching games.

And I've hinted at this a couple of times already, but I'd very much regrettably extend that sentiment to Macca. We've conceded 40 goals in the space of half a season, comfortably the worst record in the division. Add to that the notion that a quarter of those were not 'expected', and it's hard to see how your number one goalkeeper can escape the reshaping of the team. I think Hurst can be pretty cold hearted when he has to be, and if ever there were a time to put sentiment to one side it is now - I don't think any historical relationship between the two will count for too much. I've had a hunch that we'll see a young Premier League 'keeper coming in for a while now, and it's only getting stronger.

I do take some solace from these stats though. If anything, it's a stark reminder that football is a very basic game of sticking the ball in the net at one end and keeping it out at the other. And when it comes to getting the basics right, I do think we have the right man in charge for that.

Macca is probably having his worst season since he's been with us. Undoubtedly the way Holloway wanted to play has had some bearing on this as he was, simply put, incapable of playing that way. With Hurst that could possibly settle down somewhat but maybe the damage is already done in terms of the confidence those playing in front of him have in him.

As for Pollock or Waterfall, I certainly think Pollock could do with a break from the side for a few games, he's only 19 and this run can't be good for him. Idehen, from the U23 highlights looked really good. Idehen looked decent when partnered by Ohman but at other times it's been a mixed bag, maybe he could step in far a couple of games until we get reinforcements or alternatively drop Hewitt back there and bring Spokes back into the centre.

The expected goals stats are interesting, although I don't think surprising. Some of the unforced errors we make are spectacularly poor, in this respect I do feel for our management teams this season, both Hollowwords and now Hurst. I mean some of the goals are so bad if you were a neutral or opposition fan you'd be laughing your head off, they seem to be spread across quite a lot of players too, very difficult for managers to legislate for that (apart from binning the players  off completely I suppose).

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Who's going to get the goals

Quoted from ginnywings

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Exactly. The League table shows us exactly where we deserve to be so far....and likely to remain on current form for the foreseeable.
Football is played on grass , by people , not algorithims on a computer fed by a statto.

Then you divide by two and take away the number you first thought of.......

Quoted from ginnywings

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Loose methodology here:

https://experimental361.com/2019/08/24/expected-goals-league-tables-23-25-aug-2019/

I'm not entirely sure where the figures are from but the guy behind the data is generally pretty well respected.

Quoted from moosey_club

Exactly. The League table shows us exactly where we deserve to be so far....and likely to remain on current form for the foreseeable.
Football is played on grass , by people , not algorithims on a computer fed by a statto.

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

Well there are lies, damn lies, and statistics......

Quoted from Poojah

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

Not us we've only just advertised for an analyst, maybe hopefully soon 😉