League Two - expected goals table

An interesting piece of data from the excellent [url=https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/league-2/]Experimental 361[/url], showing a revised League Two table:

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/2021-01-09-4-l2.png[/img]
Of all the sides in the division, Town have comfortably the biggest swing in expected goals versus actual goals for and against. In effect, we should have scored more and conceded far fewer than we in fact have, which would have left us 5 goals better off in terms of overall GD, five points and 5 places above where were we currently find outselves.

No great surprises in an attacking sense; it's clear with or without this data that we need someone far more dangerous in and around the box. Interestingly, it does potentially offer a slight defence of the much malgined midfield - whilst service and our defensive shape needs improvement it very much appears to be the sharp ends of the pitch where it's going spectacularly wrong.

I'm hopeful that Sam Habergham will bring us some much needed solidity down the left, however there's increasingly a case for shaking up the centre back partnership. Who of Pollock and Waterfall would you take out? That's a tough call, but I don't think either have done enough to be certain of their shirt in the time Hurst has been watching games.

And I've hinted at this a couple of times already, but I'd very much regrettably extend that sentiment to Macca. We've conceded 40 goals in the space of half a season, comfortably the worst record in the division. Add to that the notion that a quarter of those were not 'expected', and it's hard to see how your number one goalkeeper can escape the reshaping of the team. I think Hurst can be pretty cold hearted when he has to be, and if ever there were a time to put sentiment to one side it is now - I don't think any historical relationship between the two will count for too much. I've had a hunch that we'll see a young Premier League 'keeper coming in for a while now, and it's only getting stronger.

I do take some solace from these stats though. If anything, it's a stark reminder that football is a very basic game of sticking the ball in the net at one end and keeping it out at the other. And when it comes to getting the basics right, I do think we have the right man in charge for that.

Macca is probably having his worst season since he's been with us. Undoubtedly the way Holloway wanted to play has had some bearing on this as he was, simply put, incapable of playing that way. With Hurst that could possibly settle down somewhat but maybe the damage is already done in terms of the confidence those playing in front of him have in him.

As for Pollock or Waterfall, I certainly think Pollock could do with a break from the side for a few games, he's only 19 and this run can't be good for him. Idehen, from the U23 highlights looked really good. Idehen looked decent when partnered by Ohman but at other times it's been a mixed bag, maybe he could step in far a couple of games until we get reinforcements or alternatively drop Hewitt back there and bring Spokes back into the centre.

The expected goals stats are interesting, although I don't think surprising. Some of the unforced errors we make are spectacularly poor, in this respect I do feel for our management teams this season, both Hollowwords and now Hurst. I mean some of the goals are so bad if you were a neutral or opposition fan you'd be laughing your head off, they seem to be spread across quite a lot of players too, very difficult for managers to legislate for that (apart from binning the players  off completely I suppose).

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Who's going to get the goals

Quoted from ginnywings

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Exactly. The League table shows us exactly where we deserve to be so far....and likely to remain on current form for the foreseeable.
Football is played on grass , by people , not algorithims on a computer fed by a statto.

Then you divide by two and take away the number you first thought of.......

Quoted from ginnywings

Goals expected by who?

According to that, Barrow should be 5th with 16 wins, yet they are not and sacked their manager.

Skeptical.

Loose methodology here:

https://experimental361.com/2019/08/24/expected-goals-league-tables-23-25-aug-2019/

I'm not entirely sure where the figures are from but the guy behind the data is generally pretty well respected.

Quoted from moosey_club

Exactly. The League table shows us exactly where we deserve to be so far....and likely to remain on current form for the foreseeable.
Football is played on grass , by people , not algorithims on a computer fed by a statto.

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

Well there are lies, damn lies, and statistics......

Quoted from Poojah

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

Not us we've only just advertised for an analyst, maybe hopefully soon 😉

Quoted from RonMariner

Well there are lies, damn lies, and statistics......

And the experimental 3 6 1 web site. Logged onto the link and Town were top in August!

Quoted from Poojah

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

I am sure those little vests they all wear come in very handy when it comes to showing who runs how far, their individual heat maps etc etc but i dont think they record how good their first touches are, the passes they fail to see, the runners they dont pick up, and in what direction the 20 passes they manage to complete in a game went.

It can be useful i am sure but i would take the worlds laziest striker right now if he scored a goal in the limited yards he covered every week.

You can get lost in stats, i think Jolley was reported to not do a team talk until he had the data , you shouldnt need data, read outs, etc if you have just watched the team for 45 mins / 90 mins.

And at the the end of the day....all those stats and the "made up" table shown on the O.P only show that we are woefully underperforming....
funnily enough i had kind of noticed that myself.

Quoted from Poojah

You don't think that clubs use data and statistics to underpin their approach in addition to observational based analysis?

It worked for the Oakland Athletics in the film Moneyball.

I get that it can be an aid to pinpointing areas of the team that can be improved, even if it's by minimal amounts.

But it doesn't take statistical analysis to see where we are going wrong.

Quoted from ginnywings

It worked for the Oakland Athletics in the film Moneyball.

I get that it can be an aid to pinpointing areas of the team that can be improved, even if it's by minimal amounts.

But it doesn't take statistical analysis to see where we are going wrong.

There only one area it's going wrong for us, it's called the pitch

Quoted from DB

And the experimental 3 6 1 web site. Logged onto the link and Town were top in August!

Only chance of that happening now is if they print the table upside down.

Or perhaps if we read it standing on our heads.

Quoted from moosey_club

I am sure those little vests they all wear come in very handy when it comes to showing who runs how far, their individual heat maps etc etc but i dont think they record how good their first touches are, the passes they fail to see, the runners they dont pick up, and in what direction the 20 passes they manage to complete in a game went.

It can be useful i am sure but i would take the worlds laziest striker right now if he scored a goal in the limited yards he covered every week.

You can get lost in stats, i think Jolley was reported to not do a team talk until he had the data , you shouldnt need data, read outs, etc if you have just watched the team for 45 mins / 90 mins.

And at the the end of the day....all those stats and the "made up" table shown on the O.P only show that we are woefully underperforming....
funnily enough i had kind of noticed that myself.

My understanding is that when MJ and AL were in charge of the team, they did all the analysing of the match footage, since IH came they have used a part-time analyst so they do provide data to individual players.

I assume PH wants a full-time analyst to do all the data and leave him to get on with actually managing the players which sounds the best way, however it makes you wonder how Alan Buckley managed to do so well without all this technology.

a work mate mentioned that when the Cowleys was at Lincoln he said they would instruct the team to pump balls in the box shoot often from range and put as much pressure on the back four (even direct balls to stretch the play).  I aint seen any of this at the moment.

Quoted from Meza

a work mate mentioned that when the Cowleys was at Lincoln he said they would instruct the team to pump balls in the box shoot often from range and put as much pressure on the back four (even direct balls to stretch the play).  I aint seen any of this at the moment.

Reminds me a bit of when Slade was here first time and his approach was that he wanted his defenders to drive angled balls long with the midfielders pressing high.  The idea was that the angled ball was difficult for the defenders to handle, they would either let it go which allowed someone like Reddy to get on the end of.  If the defender did manage to get a head to it, they struggled to direct their header anywhere which allowed someone like Paul Bolland to pick it up.  

What we've lacked this season is any sort of approach.  Pretty difficult when your squad is lacking any redeeming qualities I guess.

Regards statistics and data.  As a purist I like to believe that football is played on the pitch, but the value in data is invaluable and would recommend anyone sceptical to look at the work of Dave Brailsford with the British Cycling Team and his 1 Factor.  If you can make 1% improvements across multiple areas it all adds up to give significant results.

I feel for Hurst as he's picked up a product that has made absolutely no efforts at making any gains in the last 20 years.  Whilst Fenty might be on his way out, his legacy of stagnation will be like trying to get rid of a bad smell.

Quoted from moosey_club

Exactly. The League table shows us exactly where we deserve to be so far....and likely to remain on current form for the foreseeable.
Football is played on grass , by people , not algorithims on a computer fed by a statto.

But to me, this show's we are actually creating chances, but we have no natural goalscorer who can finish them!

xG aren't just a waste of time etc, they are actually useful, and show's that we are actually creating stuff, rather than just getting hammered constantly

Would recommend the book 'The expected goals philosophy' for anyone interested.

Explains how teams use xg to assess performance.

There's a good chapter on how Brentford have used this method when recruiting players. Made them more than a few quid!

Quoted from diehardmariner

Reminds me a bit of when Slade was here first time and his approach was that he wanted his defenders to drive angled balls long with the midfielders pressing high.  The idea was that the angled ball was difficult for the defenders to handle, they would either let it go which allowed someone like Reddy to get on the end of.  If the defender did manage to get a head to it, they struggled to direct their header anywhere which allowed someone like Paul Bolland to pick it up.  

What we've lacked this season is any sort of approach.  Pretty difficult when your squad is lacking any redeeming qualities I guess.

Regards statistics and data.  As a purist I like to believe that football is played on the pitch, but the value in data is invaluable and would recommend anyone sceptical to look at the work of Dave Brailsford with the British Cycling Team and his 1 Factor.  If you can make 1% improvements across multiple areas it all adds up to give significant results.

I feel for Hurst as he's picked up a product that has made absolutely no efforts at making any gains in the last 20 years.  Whilst Fenty might be on his way out, his legacy of stagnation will be like trying to get rid of a bad smell.

Otherwise known as the Monkhouse Gambit.

The stats approach does have its uses but thats more about pre planning an approach based on the stats that are more likely to be succesful. The KEY to that is you have to have the tools to implement the system, not just considering the stats/system to guarantee success because it works for Barcelona and they win everything.
Todays stats/systems can also be tomorrows chip paper.
The earliest example i can remember was Charles Reep , who championed the direct approach , used very succesfully by Graham Taylor, Dave Bassett, John Beck .....teams get wise, deploy counter measures, it becomes ineffective.
Look at the evolution of the Premier League , started with some ageing oversees skilful players running rings around our old style combative midfielders/ defenders, there was the phase of pure power and athleticism in the midfield , counter attack sides ,  we have had the dimunitive No.10's , Pep and his Tiki Taka, the German high pressing and currently there is the playing out from the back.
Someone somewhere must be showing the evidence that playing from the back is more likely to result in retaining possesion, which gives you a better chance of scoring.....but the thousands of stats wont show that trying this with Luke Waterfall and James Mckeown will more than likely result in a goal against.