Next Four Games

Our remaining March fixtures are pretty tough, all against teams in the top 7:-

MKD Home
Gillingham away
Wrexham Home
Barrow away

On paper we should lose the lot, but I don't think we will. I think we will win one of the home games and maybe get a draw from one of the away games. So 4 points. Anything beyond that would be outstanding.

Just for fun lets see what the others have coming

Colchester:-

Doncaster Home
Walsall Home
Mansfield Away
Newport Home.

I can see them getting six points  from that lot.

FGR:-

Bradford away
Sutton Home
Doncaster away
Stockport Home

They might get 5 points from those games.

Sutton

Crewe away
FGR Away
Accrington Home
Salford away

I'll be kind and say they might get 3 points.


So by end march I am predicting:-

Town on 39
Colchester 38
FGR 35
Sutton 30

The good news is that our April fixtures are somewhat kinder, so if we still have a cushion at the end of March we should be in good shape. But I think we definitely need to win one of our next four games to stand any chance of that happening.

      

That’s given me IBS

I've pencilled in 1 point from the next 4 I'm afraid

Quoted from RonMariner

Just for fun lets see what the others have coming

Colchester:-

Doncaster Home
Walsall Home
Mansfield Away
Newport Home.

I can see them getting six points  from that lot.


      

In form guide, Colchester have won once this year, Doncaster lost once in their last 8, Walsall have won 5 of their last 6, Mansfield won 6 of their last 8. I think giving Colchester 6 points is extremely generous.

If we keep grinding away I think more points will be accumulated than people think .

3 or 4 from the next 4 would be acceptable , that would only leave us needing 7  points , probably 10 maximum from the last 7 games .

I sort of get the feeling it will go down to the last few games and we need to make sure we are safe before the last game or two . I don't want to be going to Crawley needing a result - we have been in that position before .

Big game on Tuesday to find a win now it would really take the pressure off somewhat .

I think Salford could be dragged back into it if they continue to lose a few , we have 2 games in hand on them as do Colchester .

All scenarios on the fishy calculator that I've put in honestly, have got Sutton and Colchester going down with us above forest green.

Quoted from RonMariner

Our remaining March fixtures are pretty tough, all against teams in the top 7:-

MKD Home
Gillingham away
Wrexham Home
Barrow away

On paper we should lose the lot, but I don't think we will. I think we will win one of the home games and maybe get a draw from one of the away games. So 4 points. Anything beyond that would be outstanding.

Just for fun lets see what the others have coming

Colchester:-

Doncaster Home
Walsall Home
Mansfield Away
Newport Home.

I can see them getting six points  from that lot.

FGR:-

Bradford away
Sutton Home
Doncaster away
Stockport Home

They might get 5 points from those games.

Sutton

Crewe away
FGR Away
Accrington Home
Salford away

I'll be kind and say they might get 3 points.


So by end march I am predicting:-

Town on 39
Colchester 38
FGR 35
Sutton 30

The good news is that our April fixtures are somewhat kinder, so if we still have a cushion at the end of March we should be in good shape. But I think we definitely need to win one of our next four games to stand any chance of that happening.

      

Cheers for that you have more patience than me to analyse the bigger picture, Me i cross me fingers and toes and look  though my fingers with 3 games live for me to watch till end of the season
UTM

2 points extra yesterday would’ve probably seen us just about comfortable, if we pick up an unlikely win on Tuesday you’d imagine we have a large cushion with only 10 games left (9 for FGR).

Colchester are bang in bother though, dragging them into the battle was absolutely vital & hopefully this year is the tear their luck runs out.

I think there’s quite a bit more nervousness & possibly some more drama to endure. That said the lads look bang up for the fight so I reckon we’ll be ok.

If the staff use yesterday right it will absolutely galvanise the players.

Quoted from 140381

That’s given me IBS

Don't  want stand next to you at the Gillingham game ,
My quote " Gives me the Willies!" The thought of our next four matches as far as nerves go.

Quoted from tashee69

In form guide, Colchester have won once this year, Doncaster lost once in their last 8, Walsall have won 5 of their last 6, Mansfield won 6 of their last 8. I think giving Colchester 6 points is extremely generous.

I get that. But using that analysis you would never have expected FGR to beat Walsall yesterday.

I could see them beating Doncaster and Newport. But be very happy to be proved wrong!

Quoted from HertsGTFC

I think there’s quite a bit more nervousness & possibly some more drama to endure. That said the lads look bang up for the fight so I reckon we’ll be ok.

If the staff use yesterday right it will absolutely galvanise the players.

The issue, if we go back three or four games, is that we were hemorrhaging goals and routinely failing to pick up points as a result. Ultimately, we’ve stopped doing that boy by fluke but rather a fundamental shift in approach.

I’ve made no secret of how nervous I was going into the Forest Green game, but the pattern of the last 4 games has given me sufficient confidence that we can avoid relegation without too much drama.

I said to my Lincoln work colleagues that I think FGR will overtake Colchester as they are not picking up any points.

I don’t think we will go down my guess is Sutton and Colchester.

Looking at Sutton yesterday, they've had it. Colchester have lost the new manager bounce and are struggling, so it's those two for me.

Quoted from DB

Looking at Sutton yesterday, they've had it. Colchester have lost the new manager bounce and are struggling, so it's those two for me.

I guarantee the Colchester fans will be saying it’s Sutton and Grimsby!

Long way to go. Big week ahead for all 4 teams.

Quoted from Heisenberg

I guarantee the Colchester fans will be saying it’s Sutton and Grimsby!

Long way to go. Big week ahead for all 4 teams.

Our rearranged fixture at Colchester will be one hell of a game, a true 6 pointer.

Quoted from DB

Our rearranged fixture at Colchester will be one hell of a game, a true 6 pointer.

I honestly hope (and to be honest feel) we'll be safe by then.

Really don't think I can take going into that final games knowing it's all or nothing for us.

Game by game approach. It's silly season now and a lot of the form book stuff goes out the window. Some players and teams will already be on the beach, others now start to play as contracts are expiring. If we focus on us we'll be fine.

Average current league position of each of the bottom four’s opponents between now and the end of the season.

Town - 10.5 (11 games)
Colchester - 10.5 (11 games)
Forest Green - 9.5 (10 games)
Sutton - 11.3 (10 games)

Everyone has slightly tougher than average remaining fixtures, with Forest Green’s the toughest run-in on paper. What’s potentially significant though is that their next 3 look notably easier than ours (average of 18.3 versus 4.7), potentially meaning we could be in for some nervy times ahead.

That said, Forest Green’s last 6 look mightily tough, with an opp average of 6.3. Ours is 13.8 for comparison.

I think the next couple of weeks will be significant. If we can emerge from the next 3 matches with the veggies at arms length, you’d have to think we’re in pretty good shape. However, if they do draw us in (or god forbid get ahead of us), it’s going to make for a very nervy spring.

Of course, Colchester are significant in this. 9 games in, Danny Cowley is presiding over an 11% win rate and they, like us until recently, haven’t won a game this calendar year.   Personally, between them, us and the veggies, I think they have the most to be worried about at the minute. They have no momentum, and that could well prove critical.

We’ve learned quite a bit in the last 8 or 9 days. We’ll learn a lot more in the next 14.

If we get anything more than two points from these games we’re doing well. If we continue to average a point a game until the end of the season I reckon we’ll stay up. Bloody shite state of affairs to be in as Renton would say, but that’s how I see it.

We have got to stop looking at other teams games and hope they drop points.

We will do it on our own backs by keeping tight at the back and finding out shooting boots.

Some people just get too excited and blast the ball as hard as they can.

Just relax lads and stroke the ball placing it in the corner out of the keepers reach.

This is where a striker coach would come in handy we should employ one until the end of the season.

Or

Even longer if it works .

A chance to widen the gap tonight

They are going to struggle to finish the season on time at this rate

I'm not sure where/when they can fit this fixture in as most Tuesdays are blocked with their other postponed fixtures and regular Tuesday games+ the easter bank holiday .  The only free midweeks are next Tuesday  and the final week of the season now (if it rains they can't get a game on there though ).

Can they play 3 games in a week or can the season run into May?

Quoted from Mappers

Tweet 1767470607740920174 will appear here...

A chance to widen the gap tonight

They are going to struggle to finish the season on time at this rate

I'm not sure where/when they can fit this fixture in as most Tuesdays are blocked with their other postponed fixtures and regular Tuesday games+ the easter bank holiday .  The only free midweeks are next Tuesday  and the final week of the season now (if it rains they can't get a game on there though ).

Can they play 3 games in a week or can the season run into May?

Deary me. They deserve to go down with their non-league pitch; they’re certainly not helping themselves either.

Quoted from Mappers

Tweet 1767470607740920174 will appear here...

A chance to widen the gap tonight

They are going to struggle to finish the season on time at this rate

I'm not sure where/when they can fit this fixture in as most Tuesdays are blocked with their other postponed fixtures and regular Tuesday games+ the easter bank holiday .  The only free midweeks are next Tuesday  and the final week of the season now (if it rains they can't get a game on there though ).

Can they play 3 games in a week or can the season run into May?

Every team has to play the 46th game at the same time and the season won't be extended. If this continues, they will be playing 3 games a week for 2-3 weeks and may have to play them in a different venue.

I do remember us once having to play Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday once in our first stint in non league, I reckon…

Quoted from jamesgtfc

Every team has to play the 46th game at the same time and the season won't be extended. If this continues, they will be playing 3 games a week for 2-3 weeks and may have to play them in a different venue.

They could be in a right mess then .

Saturday must be in doubt aswell , the weather forecast is poor down south Friday/Saturday .

Quoted from Mappers

Tweet 1767470607740920174 will appear here...

A chance to widen the gap tonight

They are going to struggle to finish the season on time at this rate

I'm not sure where/when they can fit this fixture in as most Tuesdays are blocked with their other postponed fixtures and regular Tuesday games+ the easter bank holiday .  The only free midweeks are next Tuesday  and the final week of the season now (if it rains they can't get a game on there though ).

Can they play 3 games in a week or can the season run into May?

Absolutely intercourse em. They show no respect to fans either their own or visitors. That they don’t have a groundsman is just a pisstake.
Also it would be lovely to see the Cowleys get relegated.

Quoted from Theimperialcoroner

Absolutely intercourse em. They show no respect to fans either their own or visitors. That they don’t have a groundsman is just a pisstake.
Also it would be lovely to see the Cowleys get relegated.

The EFL should mandate that all of their members must have ground staff, with at least one being employed full-time and having a relevant accreditation. That solves one part of the problem and would stop clubs getting the Chief Executive to mow the grass.

I would like to see some extra funding that is coming into the EFL to be held by the EFL for grants that can be used on things such as pitch improvements.

Quoted from Theimperialcoroner

Absolutely intercourse em. They show no respect to fans either their own or visitors. That they don’t have a groundsman is just a pisstake.
Also it would be lovely to see the Cowleys get relegated.

Yeah, I think it unfair to call it a non-league pitch as plenty of non-league clubs will have a groundsman!

Not too surprised that Sutton's pitch isn't good, however. They had to rip up their artificial pitch when they won promotion to the League and I suspect it might be difficult to develop a completely new pitch in the same place, given the money available to them.

Quoted from Maringer

Yeah, I think it unfair to call it a non-league pitch as plenty of non-league clubs will have a groundsman!

Not too surprised that Sutton's pitch isn't good, however. They had to rip up their artificial pitch when they won promotion to the League and I suspect it might be difficult to develop a completely new pitch in the same place, given the money available to them.

There are some excellent pitches in non-league. The Gainsborough Trinity pitch has always impressed me, and the pitch at Boston is pristine. It's probably easier to install a pristine pitch as part of a new stadium because you have time on your side. Any new pitch we installed would have to be fully usable within 10-12 weeks of the previous season ending. I'm no expert in this field, but I would have thought that impacts what we can do.

Just how bad is the Colchester pitch? Called off already and the Metoffice says the Colchester area has only had 2 hours of drizzle in the last 24 hours. Is it a swamp?

Quoted from mariner91

Just how bad is the Colchester pitch? Called off already and the Metoffice says the Colchester area has only had 2 hours of drizzle in the last 24 hours. Is it a swamp?

It's a disgrace. I think they should have 10, no, make that 20 points deducted right away.  

Quoted from grimsby pete

We have got to stop looking at other teams games and hope they drop points.

We will do it on our own backs by keeping tight at the back and finding out shooting boots.

Some people just get too excited and blast the ball as hard as they can.

Just relax lads and stroke the ball placing it in the corner out of the keepers reach.


Exactly!  I feel that now Obikwu got off the mark he will be a danger.  You could see his confidence on the up each of the last few games.  That is if he got over his knock - was it a thigh?
This is where a striker coach would come in handy we should employ one until the end of the season.

Or

Even longer if it works .

If their pitch is continually not fit for purpose then they should be docked points.

Now the run of 4 "tough" games is complete with 4 points in the bag its interesting to look back and see how that compares with hopes and expectations from before the MK Dons game, quite favourably I would suggest. Now..., on to the rest!

Quoted from pizzzza

Now the run of 4 "tough" games is complete with 4 points in the bag its interesting to look back and see how that compares with hopes and expectations from before the MK Dons game, quite favourably I would suggest. Now..., on to the rest!

That form would give you 46 points for a season, which might get a team relegated

We got as many points from those 4 games as most expected. What was unexpected was Sutton suddenly, somehow becoming the form team of the division!

They've got some though games coming up in April, but we need to win the points ourselves to make sure we are safe. Surely we can manage a few where we don't gift the opposition a load of goals early in the game? Hope so.

It’s not just the 4pts though is it. The performances in the last two games have been abject gutless and with crass defensive errors meaning the games were over in the first half .That is why I am more concerned now then before the tough 4 game run started.

I think this is the point. Last two games - on paper you might have expected a nil return, and we might have sort of accepted that philosophically had we battled away, given a decent account, showed some metal and some intent and some competency…..but they were weak and pathetically inept showings - both games absolutely gone within the first half hour, with zero ‘basics’ done right. Opposition coaches laughing at how easy it is to beat us quickly. That’s what rankles. And Artell is ultimately responsible for that. Yes we’ve had a recent upturn that took us to basic, expected levels, but prior to that, this was very much the pattern. Stockport, Doncaster, Walsall etc…all smashed us in 30 minutes with performances pathetically feeble and insulting. That is endemic. It’s returned. It’s ‘normal service resumed’.

What concerned me most about the second goal yesterday was the shape when we had the ball. I wasn’t at the game so can only go off the highlights but you can’t see either of our full/wing-backs in the entire frame even though the ball is only ten yards ahead of our penalty area.

Why has Artell seemingly moved away from the structure and style that was reasonably successful? These players are not capable of playing an expansive style. Hell, they’re barely able to consistently do the basics most of them. It’s seriously concerning that he keeps trying to persist with playing a style that the players are incapable of carrying out. The manager’s primary role is to find a system to suit the players under his management. It’s fair to say that the players he’s inherited are generally shite and you’d want rid of 80% of them in the summer. But they’re all we have in the here and now and we still need to get the points on board to secure safety. So ditch your ideals, get the job done and regroup in May.

Quoted from mariner91

What concerned me most about the second goal yesterday was the shape when we had the ball. I wasn’t at the game so can only go off the highlights but you can’t see either of our full/wing-backs in the entire frame even though the ball is only ten yards ahead of our penalty area.

Why has Artell seemingly moved away from the structure and style that was reasonably successful? These players are not capable of playing an expansive style. Hell, they’re barely able to consistently do the basics most of them. It’s seriously concerning that he keeps trying to persist with playing a style that the players are incapable of carrying out. The manager’s primary role is to find a system to suit the players under his management. It’s fair to say that the players he’s inherited are generally shite and you’d want rid of 80% of them in the summer. But they’re all we have in the here and now and we still need to get the points on board to secure safety. So ditch your ideals, get the job done and regroup in May.

Don’t think he’s moved away from it, Wood and AG offered very little in midfield meaning Clifton and Hume were covering too much ground. Also their 34 and Telford ran us ragged with quick transition on an almost unplayable pitch in the 1st half. Pete Wilde has got them performing well.

As a person I quite warm to Artell, clearly he’s an intelligent bloke, arguably too intelligent, he seems hard working, open & clearly is values led.

As a football manager I just don’t get what he’s trying to do. He came in got the team playing out and it fell over quickly. Then we change shape & style with 3 CBs & it started to look better and we started picking up points, we then seemingly abandon what has kept things tight against 2 of the best sides in the league.

The manner of the last 2 defeats looks like we’ve once again regressed.

Quoted from Theimperialcoroner

Don’t think he’s moved away from it, Wood and AG offered very little in midfield meaning Clifton and Hume were covering too much ground. Also their 34 and Telford ran us ragged with quick transition on an almost unplayable pitch in the 1st half. Pete Wilde has got them performing well.

You were there so I’ll bow to your opinion but then it’s extremely concerning that in the clip of the second goal I’ve seen you can’t see either of our full backs at any point even though we gave the ball away in the middle of the pitch 30 yards from our goal.

Let's not forget that we have just played 2 of the much better sides in the league, and both have made us look severely wanting. Wrexham comfortably saw off the excellent Mansfield yesterday, and Barrow are in great form, especially at home.

Now we are back to the less capable teams, I'm hoping for a much better showing. We are still in a better position than the three teams below us...for now.

Results have mainly gone our way for the last few rounds of games, but yesterday they didn't, FGR apart. That is bound to happen some weeks, and it could swing back the other way on Monday. If it doesn't, then we look at it again.

I've gone from optimistic, to fairly optimistic, to slightly anxious over the last four games, but the crunch is now coming with games running out fast, so buckle up folks.

Quoted from mariner91

You were there so I’ll bow to your opinion but then it’s extremely concerning that in the clip of the second goal I’ve seen you can’t see either of our full backs at any point even though we gave the ball away in the middle of the pitch 30 yards from our goal.

It was because in this 5-3-2 we've been playing recently there's absolutely zero width offered by the strikers and central midfielders, so it's up to the wing backs to provide it. Artell also mentioned (correctly in my view having been at the game yesterday) that Barrow would be sitting in a low block and that he'd instructed the players to either go over or around it rather than trying to play through the middle.

Presumably owing to those instructions some of our better transitions came from playing cross field balls to either Hume or Clifton in advanced positions up the pitch. That however is a tactic which is completely undone by midfielders and centre backs giving the ball away in dangerous positions (as happened for both of the first two goals).

If you're playing three CBs I don't think it's that complacent to allow your wing backs a bit of freedom to get further up the pitch when you're in possession, but that does rely on their teammates being competent at controlling and passing a football, which is apparently too much of an ask for a lot of this town squad.

Quoted from Chrisblor

It was because in this 5-3-2 we've been playing recently there's absolutely zero width offered by the strikers and central midfielders, so it's up to the wing backs to provide it. Artell also mentioned (correctly in my view having been at the game yesterday) that Barrow would be sitting in a low block and that he'd instructed the players to either go over or around it rather than trying to play through the middle.

Presumably owing to those instructions some of our better transitions came from playing cross field balls to either Hume or Clifton in advanced positions up the pitch. That however is a tactic which is completely undone by midfielders and centre backs giving the ball away in dangerous positions (as happened for both of the first two goals).

If you're playing three CBs I don't think it's that complacent to allow your wing backs a bit of freedom to get further up the pitch when you're in possession, but that does rely on their teammates being competent at controlling and passing a football, which is apparently too much of an ask for a lot of this town squad.

Yeah which is kind of the point I’m making. Against MK Dons the full backs only got forward when the ball was moving forward, they rarely moved ahead of the ball. You’re absolutely right that we don’t have the centre backs or midfielders capable of keeping basic possession consistently so especially against the better teams it makes no sense to push the full backs on miles ahead of the ball. We know full well that we’re likely to give it away in our defensive third multiple times each game so minimise that risk.

With competent players you can push your full or wing backs on, like Barrow did against us at BP (wasn’t there yesterday). The problem is that you can count on one hand the number of competent FL players we have.

Quoted from mariner91

Yeah which is kind of the point I’m making. Against MK Dons the full backs only got forward when the ball was moving forward, they rarely moved ahead of the ball. You’re absolutely right that we don’t have the centre backs or midfielders capable of keeping basic possession consistently so especially against the better teams it makes no sense to push the full backs on miles ahead of the ball. We know full well that we’re likely to give it away in our defensive third multiple times each game so minimise that risk.

With competent players you can push your full or wing backs on, like Barrow did against us at BP (wasn’t there yesterday). The problem is that you can count on one hand the number of competent FL players we have.

I totally agree with you and have mentioned it somewhere else, he's trying to push the full backs further forward than before. Yes they had to push forward to provide width but only with the ball or from behind the ball, they started from more of a FB position and we were defensively a back 5.

He also tried changing the team to his favoured back 4 for the 2nd half v Gillingham and we looked bad there too.

The more his way is played the worse we get in my opinion.
He's under massive pressure again now so hopefully he gets back in his box v Bradford.

Next Saturday's game at home to Newport will tell us if we will stay up or not.

Colchester are home to Wrexham

FGR at home to franchise FC

Sutton at home to Stockport

If it all goes to plan we could be all but safe, but football is funny stuff and never goes to plan.  Here's hoping just for once it sticks to the form book

Quoted from mimma

Next Saturday's game at home to Newport will tell us if we will stay up or not.

Colchester are home to Wrexham

FGR at home to franchise FC

Sutton at home to Stockport

If it all goes to plan we could be all but safe, but football is funny stuff and never goes to plan.  Here's hoping just for once it sticks to the form book

Win the next two and we get to 45 points. Can't see FGR getting near that. And its a tough ask for Sutton too.  This time next week we will have a very clear idea of our chances of staying up.,