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Playoff chances

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Zmariner
May 6, 2022, 9:09am
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Just had a look at the league and if things go as you would expect we will end up with either a home or an away game against Notts County. This will likely lead to an away game Wrexham. If you say we have an even chance in each game, mathematically we have a one in eight chance of going up which sounds about right to me. This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm
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Poojah
May 6, 2022, 9:28am
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Still loads to play out yet. Results haven’t played out as expected of late, happily mostly in our favour, and I don’t think it’s going to be a simple battle of goal difference between us and Notts County for 5th place.

The other one I wouldn’t assume is that Wrexham are nailed on to finish 2nd. They play Stockport on Sunday, who will all but win the league there with a victory, barring an unlikely GD swing on the final day. There’s a very reasonable chance that Halifax, at home to Aldershot tomorrow, go into the last game in possession of 2nd place.

Halifax do themselves have to face Stockport on final day, while Wrexham are away to Dagenham, still possibly chasing that final play-off place. Lots to play for yet; just try to enjoy it and not overthink it. What will be will be.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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ska face
May 6, 2022, 9:34am

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50/50 of making the playoffs at the minute. Huge match Saturday.
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Hagrid
May 6, 2022, 9:37am

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Quoted from ska face
50/50 of making the playoffs at the minute. Huge match Saturday.


oo i dont know i think we're more than 50/50

Agree that tomorrow is Huge though, it wont be a walkover and first goal is absolutely vital
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buckstown
May 6, 2022, 9:42am
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Lots of obsessing about a home tie but let’s not forget we lost at home to both County and Chesterfield
And won both away of course. In summary anything could happen and we just to go into them on a high
Bring it on!!
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supertown
May 6, 2022, 10:00am
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Quoted from Zmariner
Just had a look at the league and if things go as you would expect we will end up with either a home or an away game against Notts County. This will likely lead to an away game Wrexham. If you say we have an even chance in each game, mathematically we have a one in eight chance of going up which sounds about right to me. This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm


So there would be 6 teams in the playoffs and we have a 1 in 8 chance of going up 🤨 weird
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Rodley Mariner
May 6, 2022, 10:10am
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Bet365 have us at 1/50 to be in the play offs and 12/1 to go up.
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Zmariner
May 6, 2022, 10:11am
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Quoted from supertown


So there would be 6 teams in the playoffs and we have a 1 in 8 chance of going up 🤨 weird


We have to win three games and I said we have an even chance of winning And so mathematically that is 1/2 times 1/2×1/2 equals 1 eighth
The teams in second and third only play two games and so their chance is 1/2×1/2 equals 1/4
This assumes that we have an even chance of winning these games utm
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TownSNAFU5
May 6, 2022, 10:15am
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To win the playoffs there is a third match in the final.  The odds increase against going up.  We will play at least one game away and at least one game against a team who finished higher than us.

12/1 to go up seems realistic to me.  Although better than the old playoff format of 4 teams.  Unlikely we would make it this season.
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Yossarian
May 6, 2022, 10:21am
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Quoted from Zmariner
This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm


I agree - I think it is a well thought out format which achieves two things really well:

1.  genuinely rewards finishing higher up the league.
2.  Keeps more teams "in play" longer in the season

Whichever teams we potentially get, I'm nervy about screwing it all up on one game. I guess nerves are the right of every fan, regardless of the team they follow.

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