Playoff chances

Just had a look at the league and if things go as you would expect we will end up with either a home or an away game against Notts County. This will likely lead to an away game Wrexham. If you say we have an even chance in each game, mathematically we have a one in eight chance of going up which sounds about right to me. This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm

Still loads to play out yet. Results haven’t played out as expected of late, happily mostly in our favour, and I don’t think it’s going to be a simple battle of goal difference between us and Notts County for 5th place.

The other one I wouldn’t assume is that Wrexham are nailed on to finish 2nd. They play Stockport on Sunday, who will all but win the league there with a victory, barring an unlikely GD swing on the final day. There’s a very reasonable chance that Halifax, at home to Aldershot tomorrow, go into the last game in possession of 2nd place.

Halifax do themselves have to face Stockport on final day, while Wrexham are away to Dagenham, still possibly chasing that final play-off place. Lots to play for yet; just try to enjoy it and not overthink it. What will be will be.

50/50 of making the playoffs at the minute. Huge match Saturday.

Quoted from ska face

50/50 of making the playoffs at the minute. Huge match Saturday.

oo i dont know i think we're more than 50/50

Agree that tomorrow is Huge though, it wont be a walkover and first goal is absolutely vital

Lots of obsessing about a home tie but let’s not forget we lost at home to both County and Chesterfield
And won both away of course. In summary anything could happen and we just to go into them on a high
Bring it on!!

Quoted from Zmariner

Just had a look at the league and if things go as you would expect we will end up with either a home or an away game against Notts County. This will likely lead to an away game Wrexham. If you say we have an even chance in each game, mathematically we have a one in eight chance of going up which sounds about right to me. This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm

So there would be 6 teams in the playoffs and we have a 1 in 8 chance of going up 🤨 weird

Bet365 have us at 1/50 to be in the play offs and 12/1 to go up.

Quoted from supertown

So there would be 6 teams in the playoffs and we have a 1 in 8 chance of going up 🤨 weird

We have to win three games and I said we have an even chance of winning And so mathematically that is 1/2 times 1/2×1/2 equals 1 eighth
The teams in second and third only play two games and so their chance is 1/2×1/2 equals 1/4
This assumes that we have an even chance of winning these games utm

To win the playoffs there is a third match in the final.  The odds increase against going up.  We will play at least one game away and at least one game against a team who finished higher than us.

12/1 to go up seems realistic to me.  Although better than the old playoff format of 4 teams.  Unlikely we would make it this season.

Quoted from Zmariner

This playoff format I think is very fair but tough stuff utm

I agree - I think it is a well thought out format which achieves two things really well:

1.  genuinely rewards finishing higher up the league.
2.  Keeps more teams "in play" longer in the season

Whichever teams we potentially get, I'm nervy about screwing it all up on one game. I guess nerves are the right of every fan, regardless of the team they follow.

Quoted from Hagrid

oo i dont know i think we're more than 50/50

Agree that tomorrow is Huge though, it wont be a walkover and first goal is absolutely vital

Yes, based on recent results we need Maidenhead to score first.

I think it’s a step too far this season. Hurst has done well to get us in contention. Completely outplayed by Solihull and Stockport (@ 11 men!).

Having said all that I’ve bought train tickets to London for June 5th…  

I know it's natural to speculate, but in reality, no one really knows what is going to happen.

After tomorrow, we could be in the box seat or nervously looking over our shoulders, depending on results, so I tend to take a wait and see approach.

Our propensity to struggle against sides we should be beating keeps us all guessing. What we have in our favour is two winnable home games coming up and we have a pretty good home record this season. We also have a game in hand over most teams, so Tuesday night could be a season defining match.

If we negotiate the next two games successfully and secure our play off spot, I would say we have a more than fair chance of beating Notts or Chesterfiled, but after that, who knows?

Quoted from ska face

50/50 of making the playoffs at the minute. Huge match Saturday.

Given Dagenham and Redbridge’s remaining fixtures, I’d happily have a bet if I could find a bookie offering Evens.

Why are we so negative?  The only team that we can say have been better than us is Stockport. Playing any of the other teams will be all about how we play on the day, and how they do. There isn't anything between any of the other teams, and I back Hurst to get the results we need, home or away, especially with our support.

Quoted from mimma

Why are we so negative?  The only team that we can say have been better than us is Stockport. Playing any of the other teams will be all about how we play on the day, and how they do. There isn't anything between any of the other teams, and I back Hurst to get the results we need, home or away, especially with our support.

Solihull were better too I thought. That would be a tough one.

I completely expect us to make the playoffs, if you look at Dagenham’s next two games it is possible we won’t even need another point. One win and we are nailed on. Once in the play-offs my biggest fear is that our lack of goals will be our Achilles heel. Some of these teams Have got more potent strike forces and in games of few chances this could tell

Quoted from ginnywings

Solihull were better too I thought. That would be a tough one.

They were better in patches but I remember us hitting the post and having several chances to make it 2-0 before they equalised.
We can compete with anyone in this league we just need to put our chances away.

We had two really good chances to equalise at Solihull before they broke and made it 2-0. We were crap that night but there wasn't much in the game.

No one will want to play us

Play offs are truly horrible to watch if you lose, amazing if you win. There is so much riding on them. It’s a real bounce back season for us to even be in contention, but I’m not looking forward to them one bit.
Of all the teams we’ll face, it’s pretty even from what I’ve seen. I saw us home and away for Halifax and Solihull likewise Notts and Chesterfield even the first two were not miles better than us and we probably should’ve had more out of those four games than just one point. We battered Wrexham at home during our golden start but I’ve not seen how they developed since. Daggers we’re poor at our place but rolled us at theirs so god knows with them. All I’ll hope for is that bit of luck that has sometimes evaded us in these sorts of games and a huge comfortable victory should we get to the final so my nerves aren’t copulated like they have been in previous years.

Play-off chances ?

We've got that free hit now of a game in hand over our rivals (excluding Boreham Wood) which is a big bonus.

As far as the play-offs go it's a lottery, one rash challenge and down to ten men, players getting injured (sometimes that can work in your favour   )

You've got to be in it to win it, simples.

Quoted from Theimperialcoroner

Play offs are truly horrible to watch if you lose, amazing if you win. There is so much riding on them. It’s a real bounce back season for us to even be in contention, but I’m not looking forward to them one bit.
Of all the teams we’ll face, it’s pretty even from what I’ve seen. I saw us home and away for Halifax and Solihull likewise Notts and Chesterfield even the first two were not miles better than us and we probably should’ve had more out of those four games than just one point. We battered Wrexham at home during our golden start but I’ve not seen how they developed since. Daggers we’re poor at our place but rolled us at theirs so god knows with them. All I’ll hope for is that bit of luck that has sometimes evaded us in these sorts of games and a huge comfortable victory should we get to the final so my nerves aren’t copulated like they have been in previous years.

I think we have to treat this as a bit of a free hit, assuming we do of course make it to the play-offs (which I expect we will). It’s incredibly tough getting out of this league in any season, let alone this season with all the money sloshing around, and let alone having just been relegated in complete disarray.

If we do finish between 5th and 7th this season (and I hope it’s more the former than the latter), I think the management and players can take huge credit from that. They’ll have over-achieved in my opinion. Anything which happens from there is a massive bonus.

That’s not to say that we should go into the play-offs without the belief we can win them. We absolutely can. Merely that we should go into them without that monkey of pressure on our back, that has characterised all other play-off campaigns at this levels. Let the likes of Wrexham feel the heat instead.

We’ll have done everything expected of us, and more. It’s they that have to escape failure.

Quoted from Bristol Mariner

No one will want to play us

Indeed.

Look at it from the point of view of the other teams in the play offs. None of them can match our form over the last 18 games when we have clocked up over well 2 points a game, and have beaten Chesterfield, Notts, Dagenham, and Stockport on that run. It must look pretty scary to the opposition.

It's easy for us to pick holes in some of our performances and quite understandable that we are nervous, but to an outsider looking at our results over the last three months we must look pretty daunting.  

We've topped the form table quite a few times since late January. We've had the odd wobble, like losing at home to Solihull and going 2 down at Barnet but, generally speaking, I think our form has been better than our position in the league for some time.

God knows what happened between the end of Oct and early Jan. Either side of those results we've been pretty much top of the league:

W 9   D 2   L 1   (before our wobble)

W 11   D 4   L 2   (after our wobble)

W 20   D 6   L 3   (if you merge them together)

That's 66 points from 29 games (2.275 points per game). Extrapolated across a 44-game season gives you almost bang on 100 points. What a shame we lost 9 of 12 in the middle of winter!!

We need Efete and McAtee fit to have any chance in the play-offs. Their injuries are a huge blow..

Quoted from Bigdog

We need Efete and McAtee fit to have any chance in the play-offs. Their injuries are a huge blow..

I wouldn't say we have no chance without these two but certainly the inclusion of Mcatee would be a huge boost. Controversially,I know, but I don't get this over enthusiasm for Efete . I know he is quite good at getting forward but I think his defending is not what I want from a full back. He is prone to losing his man ,his throw-ins are weak and he isn't particularly good in the air. Maybe I'm a tad old fashioned but I would rather have a full-back who is  primarily a good defender than one that is primarily good at attacking.

Quoted from rancido

I wouldn't say we have no chance without these two but certainly the inclusion of Mcatee would be a huge boost. Controversially,I know, but I don't get this over enthusiasm for Efete . I know he is quite good at getting forward but I think his defending is not what I want from a full back. He is prone to losing his man ,his throw-ins are weak and he isn't particularly good in the air. Maybe I'm a tad old fashioned but I would rather have a full-back who is  primarily a good defender than one that is primarily good at attacking.

If we don't get promoted, he will be sought after by clubs higher up the pyramid than us..

Skybet have us 1/100 to make the playoffs.

Quoted from RonMariner

Indeed.

Look at it from the point of view of the other teams in the play offs. None of them can match our form over the last 18 games when we have clocked up over well 2 points a game, and have beaten Chesterfield, Notts, Dagenham, and Stockport on that run. It must look pretty scary to the opposition.

It's easy for us to pick holes in some of our performances and quite understandable that we are nervous, but to an outsider looking at our results over the last three months we must look pretty daunting.  

I also agree. I have seen fans on other clubs' forums saying they think we will WIN the playoffs. They see a team in form, they know we have beaten Stockport, Wrexham, Notts County and Chesterfield, have a manager that has done it before and a very vocal and partisan fan base.

It's going to be very tough, very tense but we certainly have a chance in the playoff lottery. The important thing is to make sure we are in them!

Quoted from rancido

I wouldn't say we have no chance without these two but certainly the inclusion of Mcatee would be a huge boost. Controversially,I know, but I don't get this over enthusiasm for Efete . I know he is quite good at getting forward but I think his defending is not what I want from a full back. He is prone to losing his man ,his throw-ins are weak and he isn't particularly good in the air. Maybe I'm a tad old fashioned but I would rather have a full-back who is  primarily a good defender than one that is primarily good at attacking.

I do feel he occasionally gets caught defensively but at our level most players have a few limitations. Hurst has consistently brought in decent full backs (he should know the position well) so I would hope they are working on this part of his game.

Quoted from Bigdog

We need Efete and McAtee fit to have any chance in the play-offs. Their injuries are a huge blow..

Saw Efete in Sainsbury's this morning, still hobbling, said he hoped to be fit for the play-offs.

Quoted from Bigdog

If we don't get promoted, he will be sought after by clubs higher up the pyramid than us..

Maybe but I still think he has limitations. He would be better employed in a system that uses three across the back but that's just my opinion.

There are definitely better full backs out there but Efete gets us up the pitch as much as anyone. Some games he’s literally had their left side pinned back for a full half. His main attribute is his athleticism and that allows him to find some crazy attacking positions.

Cropper hasn’t done anything wrong for Grimsby and he does have a great throw but Michee will be a big miss for the next few games. Hopefully him and McAtee are back ASAP.

I like Efete but I think Cropper is a better all round option.  Better defensively and whilst not as good bombing forward, has that weapon of a throw that really should cause far more issues.

I think Efete is more effective when we play a narrow midfield, as it opens up lots of space ahead of him.  I'm hoping that Hurst is moving towards two wingers which reduces the reliance on a right-back pushing forward.  Another point to add isthat he, to me anyway, looked more effective pushing on earlier in the season when it was Crookes playing on the other side of the pitch.  Crookes is more defensive minded than Amos and when Efete pushed forward he would effectively slot into a back three, allowing the right sided centre-back to cover some of the space vacated.   With Amos showing attacking intent down the left too, there isn't as much freedom for Efete to push on at will.

That all said, I wouldn't be upset at either starting games.  I'm struggling to remember the last time I could say that about our right-back options.  Probably John McDermott and Danny Butterfield, which scarily is over 20 years ago!

We will (positive mindset!) be in the play-offs on merit and shouldn't fear anyone going into it.  Bar an upsetting of the form book we'll be going into them in a good run of results behind us, which not everyone else will be able to say.

Regards Wrexham, it's not that hard to think that they lose both their remaining games against sides who need a win, with both Halifax and Solihull leap frogging them for the semi-final slots.

As with others, it's the lack of goals that worry me the most going into the play-offs.   It feels like we can only score perfect goals, we'll need to that (at least once a game) in three one-off games to achieve promotion.  Hopefully it just clicks in front of goal and/or McAtee returns and inspires a transformation up top.

If we make play offs Would we better with mostly away fixtures with a vocal away following?
Finishing 6th or 7th?
Historically we stutter with big expectation big crowd home games

Quoted from diehardmariner

I like Efete but I think Cropper is a better all round option.  Better defensively and whilst not as good bombing forward, has that weapon of a throw that really should cause far more issues.

I think Efete is more effective when we play a narrow midfield, as it opens up lots of space ahead of him.  I'm hoping that Hurst is moving towards two wingers which reduces the reliance on a right-back pushing forward.  Another point to add isthat he, to me anyway, looked more effective pushing on earlier in the season when it was Crookes playing on the other side of the pitch.  Crookes is more defensive minded than Amos and when Efete pushed forward he would effectively slot into a back three, allowing the right sided centre-back to cover some of the space vacated.   With Amos showing attacking intent down the left too, there isn't as much freedom for Efete to push on at will.

That all said, I wouldn't be upset at either starting games.  I'm struggling to remember the last time I could say that about our right-back options.  Probably John McDermott and Danny Butterfield, which scarily is over 20 years ago!

nah completely disagree, efete has been excellent and is certainly the better of the Right Backs

Quoted from Hagrid

nah completely disagree, efete has been excellent and is certainly the better of the Right Backs

I agree 100%, Miche offers far more going forward, and he can’t be that bad defensively given we’ve got the 3rd best goals against in the league.

One of the things I like about the new system (looking from our direction), is that there is so much emphasis on the benefits of a home tie that you are very likely to sh*t the bed if you actually get one.

Aslong as we finish at inside the play offs PH has done well this year, I'd love a trip to London but I won't say its a failure if we don't get their, unless we get absolutely mullered 5/6-0 in the first game of the play offs! Eek

Play offs is a given and will probably be confirmed this afternoon. It's just a case of how high we can finish. As far as our chances go, we've an outside chance. Although this squad would be fine in league two, we all know this league is difficult. Any of the top seven would be fine in the league above.

As far as our chances go IMO:

With Mcatee at somewhere near match fitness: Decent chance
Without Mcatee: No chance

The probable loss of Etefe will damage our chances as well. Do our best and see what happens.

Quoted from HoratiusEberlin

One of the things I like about the new system (looking from our direction), is that there is so much emphasis on the benefits of a home tie that you are very likely to sh*t the bed if you actually get one.

Looking forward to more bed sh*tting on Saturday!

Quoted from fishboyUTM

Play offs is a given and will probably be confirmed this afternoon. It's just a case of how high we can finish. As far as our chances go, we've an outside chance. Although this squad would be fine in league two, we all know this league is difficult. Any of the top seven would be fine in the league above.

As far as our chances go IMO:

With Mcatee at somewhere near match fitness: Decent chance
Without Mcatee: No chance

The probable loss of Etefe will damage our chances as well. Do our best and see what happens.

McAtee is our best player and talisman BUT we must take heart and confidence that we managed to turn the game around without him.