Conservatives win Hartlepool by-election

The Conservatives take the Hartlepool seat from Labour for the first time since it was created in 1974.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57020285

I see Kieth is delivering on his electability pitch.

wow.

Regretting my decision not to bet on the T***s winning

Probably would have got a good return from a monkey on the seat changing hands

It's not a huge surprise.  The Cons and the Brexit Party split the vote last time out.  I had high hopes Starmer could make Labour more electable but I haven't seen anything like a positive vision set out by them in the last year.  

It's odd because the Tories, in my view, have generally done a pretty awful job over the last 10 years or so (credit due on the vaccine roll out though which has undoubtedly been a success).  But they keep being successful and have messages that resonate across England and even with some Unionists in Scotland.    

Quoted from Town Monkey

It's not a huge surprise.  The Cons and the Brexit Party split the vote last time out.  

UKIP collapsed in between 2015 and 2017, yet Labour took 52.5% increasing vote share by about 17%. It’s hard to put into words what an utter failure Starmer is presiding over, and it’s all of his (and the party’s right) own making.

We'll have to agree to disagree there.  I think the Corbyn era put a lot of people off the Labour party who would have traditionally always voted for them.  They no longer felt represented by the people who were supposed to be on their side.  Labour has a very tough job to convince those people to return to the fold, and indeed attract people like me who weren't previously Labour voters.  That can only be done by setting out a credible, positive vision for the future of the country.  I'm not sure Starmer has the charisma necessary to pull that off even if he is articulate and intelligent.  Sadly the country now leans more towards characters than substance.

Sadly I don't see anyone in the Labour Party at present who could pull that job off.  Anas Sarwar is pretty impressive but he's got enough on his plate trying to fix the Scottish Labour Party for the moment.  

Quoted from ska face

UKIP collapsed in between 2015 and 2017, yet Labour took 52.5% increasing vote share by about 17%. It’s hard to put into words what an utter failure Starmer is presiding over, and it’s all of his (and the party’s right) own making.

2019 wasn't such a success though was it?  The Tories and BP had over 21,000 votes to Labour 15,500 votes with a vote share of 37.7%.  Remind me again who was in charge then?  

Whilst we agree Starmer isn't the answer, wouldn't you be better served if you want the Tories out to support this current incarnation of Labour as we're under FPTP (which is a discussion for another day).

Labour are finished in their current form simple reason being that people are put off with their identity politics, the working class are now conservative, the Torys are unchallenged now until we get a genuine right off centre populist party.

Quoted from Town Monkey

2019 wasn't such a success though was it?  The Tories and BP had over 21,000 votes to Labour 15,500 votes with a vote share of 37.7%.  Remind me again who was in charge then?  

Whilst we agree Starmer isn't the answer, wouldn't you be better served if you want the Tories out to support this current incarnation of Labour as we're under FPTP (which is a discussion for another day).

So Corbyn turned up in Hartlepool armed with Starmer’s 2nd referendum policy against the Tories and the Leader of the Brexit party - which stood to split to Labour vote - and STILL won!

As for voting for Starmer’s Labour, I’ve been told explicitly that my type aren’t wanted. My votes aren’t wanted, my subs aren’t wanted, my family aren’t wanted, my donations aren’t wanted, my hours canvassing aren’t wanted, and my general support isn’t wanted. I am persona non grata in Starmer’s Labour Party, and why? Because I spent a few years at university, I spent most of my life as a renter and I want billionaires to pay their fair share of tax.

The Labour right burned down their own house for 5 years to oust Corbyn and have now inherited the ashes. They’re fúcking welcome to them!

Con vote went up 23%. Brexit/Reform vote went down 24.6%.

Lab vote went down 9%. An independent who is a prominent local businesswoman & former journalist took 9.7%.

If you drill down into the results centre & left candidates got a slightly higher % of the vote than in 2019.

The simple lesson is if you have only 1 viable right wing option & multiple left wing (Lab, LD, Green & independent) then the obvious happens and the right wing candidate wins.

With Hartlepool you have to factor in the previous Labour MP & the nature of his resignation- sexual misconduct allegations. You have to ask whether it was a good idea to pick another white middle aged man. It was probably crying out for a female 30 something candidate.

And Keir Starmer...

He has a huge job. He has to tackle the loony left, set out a proper modern vision about what a 21st century Labour Party and try and reconnect with voters in the towns of the North East, East Midlands & West Midlands. Oh and try and make an impact in Scotland.

It might end up that he is to Corbyn what Neil Kinnock was to Michael Foot. Sorting out the mess and falling short himself but leaving the party in a better position than he inherited so the next leader can win a general election.

Sort out the mess? He’s gone BACKWARDS from 2019 after imposing a full-on second referendum remain headbanger on one of the most pro-Brexit constituencies in the country. He ended up with a third of the vote that the “loony left” delivered in 2017.

This absolutely insane rewriting of history will only end in Labour going the same way as all their sister parties across Europe. In the bin.

Meanwhile, the loony left Preston Labour held every one of their 30 seats and overall control of the council, and Andy Burnham who actively opposed the Tories looks set for a landslide victory.

Quoted from ska face

Sort out the mess? He’s gone BACKWARDS from 2019 after imposing a full-on second referendum remain headbanger on one of the most pro-Brexit constituencies in the country. He ended up with a third of the vote that the “loony left” delivered in 2017.

This absolutely insane rewriting of history will only end in Labour going the same way as all their sister parties across Europe. In the bin.

Really?

Projected Popular votes at UK local elections for Labour Party...

Ed Milliband
2011 - 37%
2012 - 38%
2013 - 29%
2014 - 31%
2015 - 29%
Jeremy Corbyn
2016 - 31%
2017 - 27%
2018 - 35%
2019 - 28%
Keir Starmer
2021 - 29-30% (projected)

So Labour has actually marginally improved on the results delived by JC in 2019.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Con vote went up 23%. Brexit/Reform vote went down 24.6%.

Lab vote went down 9%. An independent who is a prominent local businesswoman & former journalist took 9.7%.

If you drill down into the results centre & left candidates got a slightly higher % of the vote than in 2019.

The simple lesson is if you have only 1 viable right wing option & multiple left wing (Lab, LD, Green & independent) then the obvious happens and the right wing candidate wins.

With Hartlepool you have to factor in the previous Labour MP & the nature of his resignation- sexual misconduct allegations. You have to ask whether it was a good idea to pick another white middle aged man. It was probably crying out for a female 30 something candidate.

And Keir Starmer...

He has a huge job. He has to tackle the loony left, set out a proper modern vision about what a 21st century Labour Party and try and reconnect with voters in the towns of the North East, East Midlands & West Midlands. Oh and try and make an impact in Scotland.

It might end up that he is to Corbyn what Neil Kinnock was to Michael Foot. Sorting out the mess and falling short himself but leaving the party in a better position than he inherited so the next leader can win a general election.

That’s if you assume the Lib Dem’s are centre left. They helped put Cameron into office.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Really?

Projected Popular votes at UK local elections for Labour Party...

Ed Milliband
2011 - 37%
2012 - 38%
2013 - 29%
2014 - 31%
2015 - 29%
Jeremy Corbyn
2016 - 31%
2017 - 27%
2018 - 35%
2019 - 28%
Keir Starmer
2021 - 29-30% (projected)

So Labour has actually marginally improved on the results delived by JC in 2019.

I was clearly referring to the appalling Hartlepool result, if you want to act performatively dim.

Quoted from ska face

I was clearly referring to the appalling Hartlepool result, if you want to act performatively dim.

Less than 30,000 people voted in Hartlepool by-election. If you want to focus solely on one by-election and not on the results on nationwide local elections where Labour increased their vote marginally that's your choice.

Out of interest, what's your opinion on Labour's improved local election results on the calamitous 7% drop in 2019?

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Less than 30,000 people voted in Hartlepool by-election. If you want to focus solely on one by-election and not on the results on nationwide local elections where Labour increased their vote marginally that's your choice.

Out of interest, what's your opinion on Labour's improved local election results on the calamitous 7% drop in 2019?

The thing is it's mid-term, the government are meant to lose by-elections once the honeymoon has worn off.

Labour haven't done well in our local council elections so perhaps what has happened to them in Hartlepool is also the same here locally.

Nationally labour has lost about 186 councillors, and as Rob points out the tory honeymoon is over. Labour should have done a lot better and obviously have serious problems.

Quoted from GrimRob

The thing is it's mid-term, the government are meant to lose by-elections once the honeymoon has worn off.

We all know these aren't normal times.

It was a very low turnout in Hartlepool. 32% I think. It might be that lots of Labour voters simply stayed at home.

There’s also local factors at play. Hasn’t there been some scandals involving Labour councillors?

Quoted from KingstonMariner

It was a very low turnout in Hartlepool. 32% I think. It might be that lots of Labour voters simply stayed at home.

There’s also local factors at play. Hasn’t there been some scandals involving Labour councillors?

Hasn’t there been some sort of scandal involving Tory councillors around NEL?

Quoted from LH

Hasn’t there been some sort of scandal involving Tory councillors around NEL?

Tell me more....  

Quoted from KingstonMariner

It was a very low turnout in Hartlepool. 32% I think. It might be that lots of Labour voters simply stayed at home.

There’s also local factors at play. Hasn’t there been some scandals involving Labour councillors?

Whoops! The one I was told about happened in the 90s. Not quite the recent past. 😞

I love the idea that the Labour Party position on Brexit during the 2019 General Election was somehow nothing to do with Corbyn and solely down to Starmer. He was supposed to be leading the party for felicitations sake!

Starmer "taking full responsibility for the results" by sacking Angela Rayner.

Rumours starting that he's going to sack Lisa Nandy next. Talking about moving Labour HQ out of London and shouldering full responsibility for the Hartlepool loss by sacking the 2 most prominent labour northern women MPs. Looks like Starmer has well and truly stacked it.

Quoted from Manchester Mariner

Rumours starting that he's going to sack Lisa Nandy next. Talking about moving Labour HQ out of London and shouldering full responsibility for the Hartlepool loss by sacking the 2 most prominent labour northern women MPs. Looks like Starmer has well and truly stacked it.

I’m no fan of either but I’d definitely swap Starmer for Nandy right now, at least she’d have a bit more of a connection with the so called old red wall voters. Failing that the obvious choice (not mine) would be body bags Burnham.

Interesting to note both these Characters have never had proper jobs, never run a business same old career politicians, it would be so refreshing to see someone from the business world a bit like we saw with Trump In the US, I think the voters especially northern would get behind someone of this ilk, because at the minute there’s nobody on the Labour benches the public could take serious.

Take our clubs new owners for example I’ve no idea about their political persuasions but the way they have come across just makes you want to stop and listen. If labour could find someone like these with a high profile they could at least stop the rot and start to pull back. The country needs a strong opposition but at the minute Boris has a free pass because Labour are so inept.

For any political nerds out there i highly recommend reading Brexitland.  Really fascinating book about how Britain has changed over the last 80 years...  and how the political landscape has shifted.

I wasnt surprised by the hartlepool result....  we live in strange times.  Labour is basically having a mental breakdown ... a great shame because we need a strong opposition right now.

Quoted from Yossarian

For any political nerds out there i highly recommend reading Brexitland.  Really fascinating book about how Britain has changed over the last 80 years...  and how the political landscape has shifted.

I wasnt surprised by the hartlepool result....  we live in strange times.  Labour is basically having a mental breakdown ... a great shame because we need a strong opposition right now.

For some reason Boris is bulletproof at the minute. Not sure why, but would welcome any ideas.

Smokey111... good question.   I   apply the 'what if it was jeremy corbyn' rule to see what the press would do.  I hated corbyn with a passion.... but bojo gets serious air cover from the Daily Mail...Telegraph...Times...  there are many vested interests.

Labour are fighting on multiple fronts....  irrespective of your political leaning it is important to have a vibrant and challenging opposition and press.   Right now we have neither and we are in borderline failed state territory.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Really?

Projected Popular votes at UK local elections for Labour Party...

Ed Milliband
2011 - 37%
2012 - 38%
2013 - 29%
2014 - 31%
2015 - 29%
Jeremy Corbyn
2016 - 31%
2017 - 27%
2018 - 35%
2019 - 28%
Keir Starmer
2021 - 29-30% (projected)

So Labour has actually marginally improved on the results delived by JC in 2019.

If losing 326 councillors, 8 Councils and a parliamentary seat is an improvement in your books, then you are welcome to it.

Quoted from Yossarian

Smokey111... good question.   I   apply the 'what if it was jeremy corbyn' rule to see what the press would do.  I hated corbyn with a passion.... but bojo gets serious air cover from the Daily Mail...Telegraph...Times...  there are many vested interests.

Labour are fighting on multiple fronts....  irrespective of your political leaning it is important to have a vibrant and challenging opposition and press.   Right now we have neither and we are in borderline failed state territory.

Borderline? We're already there. The government have made it illegal to protest, strengthened the police's power against anyone protesting and are bringing in regulations that will make it more difficult for people to vote a.k.a voter suppression. There was one conviction for voter fraud after the 2019 election but 3.5 million people don't have photo ID. It's almost as if the people who are responsible for the poverty and the situations of the marginalised in society fear them voting.

Quoted from mariner91

Borderline? We're already there. The government have made it illegal to protest, strengthened the police's power against anyone protesting and are bringing in regulations that will make it more difficult for people to vote a.k.a voter suppression. There was one conviction for voter fraud after the 2019 election but 3.5 million people don't have photo ID. It's almost as if the people who are responsible for the poverty and the situations of the marginalised in society fear them voting.

Excellent post