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Making up the difference

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RichMariner
March 24, 2015, 12:19pm
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A win tonight puts us three points behind Barnet, but with their goal difference that's effectively four points.

So even if we win tonight, we'll still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches.

Given that, would a draw tonight be a bad result? That'd put us five points behind - but we'd still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches. That much doesn't change.

A win = *effectively* 4 pts behind
A draw = 5 pts behind

So, put simply, whether we win or draw tonight, we still need to win two games that Barnet either draw or lose.

We'd all prefer a win tonight, obviously (form, confidence and the outside chance of overturning that 13-goal difference), but the one thing we can't afford is a defeat.

That's probably not very clear, and I'm sure there's a hole or two in the argument, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at!!


"Don't shine that light in my face, mate - I've just lost a pint of blood."
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cmackenzie4
March 24, 2015, 12:22pm

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Keep the winning streak going it puts more pressure on Barnet, yes a draw wouldn't be the end of the world but let's fight them all the way!


Grimsby and proud!
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big al
March 24, 2015, 12:25pm
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Quoted from RichMariner
A win tonight puts us three points behind Barnet, but with their goal difference that's effectively four points.

So even if we win tonight, we'll still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches.

Given that, would a draw tonight be a bad result? That'd put us five points behind - but we'd still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches. That much doesn't change.

A win = *effectively* 4 pts behind
A draw = 5 pts behind

So, put simply, whether we win or draw tonight, we still need to win two games that Barnet either draw or lose.

We'd all prefer a win tonight, obviously (form, confidence and the outside chance of overturning that 13-goal difference), but the one thing we can't afford is a defeat.

That's probably not very clear, and I'm sure there's a hole or two in the argument, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at!!


I think you're right. I think there are a few more twists and turns left in this story - hopefully ones that favour us. We keep on making the assumption that Barnet are unlikely to mess up in any of their games, especially as they have a relatively easy run in but we all know stranger things have happened in football.
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WOZOFGRIMSBY
March 24, 2015, 12:32pm

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I think the pressure is on Barnet if we win tonight.

Very good post



“To put it in gentleman’s terms if you’ve been out for a night and you’re looking for a young lady and you pull one, some weeks they’re good looking and some weeks they’re not the best. Our performance today would have been not the best looking bird but at least we got her in the taxi. She weren’t the best looking lady we ended up taking home but she was very pleasant and very nice, so thanks very much, let’s have a coffee”
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ginnywings
March 24, 2015, 12:50pm

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Play offs almost guaranteed IMO, so may as well go for it and see what happens.
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TownSNAFU5
March 24, 2015, 1:11pm
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We really need 3 points tonight.  We did our "2 points dropped" error at Chester.

We also need 3 points to keep the psychological pressure on the top 2 .  They have more to lose than we do as they both have an excellent chance of finishing in top spot.  We still have the cushion of the play-offs.

The top 2 could have unexpected (poor) results of this pressure.

The top 2 could drop points in a way that a draw tonight is not good enough to overall them.

All to play for.
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Caesar
March 24, 2015, 1:12pm

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Logic is sound but think the psychological pressure is on Barnet that much more if we get the 3 points tonight.
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moosey_club
March 24, 2015, 1:20pm
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Sounds like a Paul Hurst viewpoint to me...not a disaster if we draw....to stand a good chance of the title we need to win every remaining game, end of.
Its ok looking up but a draw keeps teams below us in touching distance also, we need to maintain the pressure not only on Barnet but on the BRovers and Macc too, get them to concede they are only playing for the play off's.
As you say...while mathematically a draw makes little difference over a win on the future results needed to catch Barnet it just gives others something to fight for.

We need to send out a strong message this evening that we are title contenders and try to dent the hopes of the rest of the top 5 while doing so.

UTM.


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Abdul19
March 24, 2015, 1:31pm

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A draw is nearer a loss than a win.


“I hit the ball as though it owed me money.”
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LH
March 24, 2015, 1:32pm

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Win every game until the end of the season and we will be promoted whether we win the title or not. Both options are very doable this season in comparison to the last two IMO.
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