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Posted by: RichMariner, March 24, 2015, 12:19pm
A win tonight puts us three points behind Barnet, but with their goal difference that's effectively four points.

So even if we win tonight, we'll still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches.

Given that, would a draw tonight be a bad result? That'd put us five points behind - but we'd still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches. That much doesn't change.

A win = *effectively* 4 pts behind
A draw = 5 pts behind

So, put simply, whether we win or draw tonight, we still need to win two games that Barnet either draw or lose.

We'd all prefer a win tonight, obviously (form, confidence and the outside chance of overturning that 13-goal difference), but the one thing we can't afford is a defeat.

That's probably not very clear, and I'm sure there's a hole or two in the argument, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at!!
Posted by: cmackenzie4, March 24, 2015, 12:22pm; Reply: 1
Keep the winning streak going it puts more pressure on Barnet, yes a draw wouldn't be the end of the world but let's fight them all the way!
Posted by: big al, March 24, 2015, 12:25pm; Reply: 2
Quoted from RichMariner
A win tonight puts us three points behind Barnet, but with their goal difference that's effectively four points.

So even if we win tonight, we'll still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches.

Given that, would a draw tonight be a bad result? That'd put us five points behind - but we'd still need to make ground on them in two of the six remaining matches. That much doesn't change.

A win = *effectively* 4 pts behind
A draw = 5 pts behind

So, put simply, whether we win or draw tonight, we still need to win two games that Barnet either draw or lose.

We'd all prefer a win tonight, obviously (form, confidence and the outside chance of overturning that 13-goal difference), but the one thing we can't afford is a defeat.

That's probably not very clear, and I'm sure there's a hole or two in the argument, but hopefully you understand what I'm getting at!!


I think you're right. I think there are a few more twists and turns left in this story - hopefully ones that favour us. We keep on making the assumption that Barnet are unlikely to mess up in any of their games, especially as they have a relatively easy run in but we all know stranger things have happened in football.
Posted by: WOZOFGRIMSBY, March 24, 2015, 12:32pm; Reply: 3
I think the pressure is on Barnet if we win tonight.

Very good post
Posted by: ginnywings, March 24, 2015, 12:50pm; Reply: 4
Play offs almost guaranteed IMO, so may as well go for it and see what happens.
Posted by: TownSNAFU5, March 24, 2015, 1:11pm; Reply: 5
We really need 3 points tonight.  We did our "2 points dropped" error at Chester.

We also need 3 points to keep the psychological pressure on the top 2 .  They have more to lose than we do as they both have an excellent chance of finishing in top spot.  We still have the cushion of the play-offs.

The top 2 could have unexpected (poor) results of this pressure.

The top 2 could drop points in a way that a draw tonight is not good enough to overall them.

All to play for.
Posted by: Caesar, March 24, 2015, 1:12pm; Reply: 6
Logic is sound but think the psychological pressure is on Barnet that much more if we get the 3 points tonight.
Posted by: moosey_club, March 24, 2015, 1:20pm; Reply: 7
Sounds like a Paul Hurst viewpoint to me...not a disaster if we draw....to stand a good chance of the title we need to win every remaining game, end of.
Its ok looking up but a draw keeps teams below us in touching distance also, we need to maintain the pressure not only on Barnet but on the BRovers and Macc too, get them to concede they are only playing for the play off's.
As you say...while mathematically a draw makes little difference over a win on the future results needed to catch Barnet it just gives others something to fight for.

We need to send out a strong message this evening that we are title contenders and try to dent the hopes of the rest of the top 5 while doing so.

UTM.
Posted by: Abdul19, March 24, 2015, 1:31pm; Reply: 8
A draw is nearer a loss than a win.
Posted by: LH, March 24, 2015, 1:32pm; Reply: 9
Win every game until the end of the season and we will be promoted whether we win the title or not. Both options are very doable this season in comparison to the last two IMO.
Posted by: ackomariner, March 24, 2015, 1:48pm; Reply: 10
Quoted from moosey_club
Sounds like a Paul Hurst viewpoint to me...not a disaster if we draw....to stand a good chance of the title we need to win every remaining game, end of.
Its ok looking up but a draw keeps teams below us in touching distance also, we need to maintain the pressure not only on Barnet but on the BRovers and Macc too, get them to concede they are only playing for the play off's.
As you say...while mathematically a draw makes little difference over a win on the future results needed to catch Barnet it just gives others something to fight for.

We need to send out a strong message this evening that we are title contenders and try to dent the hopes of the rest of the top 5 while doing so.

UTM.


This
Posted by: GrimRob, March 24, 2015, 2:03pm; Reply: 11
Lots of teams blow big leads every year. Kevin Keegan was my personal favourite....
Posted by: Biccys, March 24, 2015, 2:40pm; Reply: 12
Quoted from Abdul19
A draw is nearer a loss than a win.


Not really. One goal either way is either of the 2 opposing results... ;)
Posted by: ivanosandwich, March 24, 2015, 3:40pm; Reply: 13
Quoted from GrimRob
Lots of teams blow big leads every year. Kevin Keegan was my personal favourite....


Thought you were going to say Monica Lewinsky
Posted by: TownSNAFU5, March 24, 2015, 3:42pm; Reply: 14
That is below the belt! :)
Posted by: Paris Mariner, March 24, 2015, 3:59pm; Reply: 15
We need 3 points. End of.
Posted by: chaos33, March 24, 2015, 4:06pm; Reply: 16
I understand the OP and think it raises some interesting points. To be honest, it just makes me all the more angry that Hurst threw away those 2 points against Chester. But, what's done is done and we need a result tonight - preferably a win.

What I would say is that Dover away is a tough game at this level, and that IMO there is no such thing as an 'easy run in' when you're trying to get promoted or avoid relegation. I agree that there are plenty of twists to come, and we have to go and play with freedom and confidence. The title is Barnet's to lose, and that brings its own pressure. Let's see how they deal with it.
Posted by: Paris Mariner, March 24, 2015, 4:11pm; Reply: 17
Quoted from chaos33
I understand the OP and think it raises some interesting points. To be honest, it just makes me all the more angry that Hurst threw away those 2 points against Chester. But, what's done is done and we need a result tonight - preferably a win.

What I would say is that Dover away is a tough game at this level, and that IMO there is no such thing as an 'easy run in' when you're trying to get promoted or avoid relegation. I agree that there are plenty of twists to come, and we have to go and play with freedom and confidence. The title is Barnet's to lose, and that brings its own pressure. Let's see how they deal with it.


This very true, so, ideally (as I will be going to this game) we'll do a Man City last season and secure the title at the death at Southport away leaving us time to nick the title with minimum amount of time to handle this pressure and celebrate the victory at a full Blundell Park.

Posted by: Mrs Doyle, March 24, 2015, 4:30pm; Reply: 18
Don't blame the Chester match we lost twice against Lincoln plus our home form when the defence was weaker cost us a lot of points.
Posted by: TownSNAFU5, March 24, 2015, 5:19pm; Reply: 19

This post is encouraging (to us) from the Barnet Board last Sat:

Grimsby major concern!
Postby ssagrin1 ยป 21 Mar 2015, 20:10
Having studied remaining fixtures for ourselves and close rivals, Grimsby appear to have far easier games than that if us and rovers ( excluding their game next week v mac).

They are on a seriously good run and are right on our coattails.

They play away on Tuesday at Dover and a win will see them just 3 points adrift of us .

I think they are in with an excellent shout all be it they rely on us and rovers losing points and that could be next week!!!!
Posted by: forza ivano, March 24, 2015, 5:24pm; Reply: 20
I just can't see a) barnet dropping enough points and b) i certainly don't have any faith that gy won't fook up befpre the season's end; so it's play off hell for us i'm afraid
Posted by: Civvy at last, March 24, 2015, 6:29pm; Reply: 21
Quoted from Abdul19
A draw is nearer a loss than a win.


You sound like my wife. She is a pessimist and I am the opposite.

She says I have a small pen1s.

I say her f@nny is half full ๐Ÿ˜‰
Posted by: chaos33, March 24, 2015, 7:12pm; Reply: 22
Roy chubby Brown is here
Posted by: moosey_club, March 24, 2015, 7:12pm; Reply: 23
Quoted from Civvy at last


You sound like my wife. She is a pessimist and I am the opposite.

She says I have a small pen1s.

I say her f@nny is half full ๐Ÿ˜‰


the proverbial " throwing a sausage down Freeman Street "  ;)
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