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Staistically speaking it's not looking good.

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brad_gtfc
October 8, 2014, 10:30pm
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I find it really disappointing that all season Hurst has talked about just making the play-offs and nothing about winning the league. Obviously that chance has gone now, barring a miracle. Belief needs to come from the top and I just don't see it coming from Hurst, far too negative, far too many cliches.
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moosey_club
October 8, 2014, 10:49pm
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Quoted from brad_gtfc
I find it really disappointing that all season Hurst has talked about just making the play-offs and nothing about winning the league. Obviously that chance has gone now, barring a miracle. Belief needs to come from the top and I just don't see it coming from Hurst, far too negative, far too many cliches.


Did he say they were 3 or 4 teams stronger than us in one of his early season interviews?? Looking like there are 10 currently  


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bobbyturtle
October 8, 2014, 11:31pm
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i think that my pint is just under half....  


Icenian Prediction League 2015 (Game 2) winner
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grimsby pete
October 8, 2014, 11:33pm

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Quoted from Rodley Mariner
We're 6 points off the play offs with 31 games left.


We are 7 points off the bottom four.


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Rodley Mariner
October 9, 2014, 6:56am
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Quoted from grimsby pete


We are 7 points off the bottom four.


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?
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arryarryarry
October 9, 2014, 9:43am
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?



I cannot speak for Pete but I would assume he was making the point that those who keep blathering on about how close we are to the play-off spots should also note that we are just about as close to a relegation spot and unfortunately they are not play-offs, land in one of those and that is game over.

Anyway being close to either of these places is of no relevance anyway it is where we are at the end of the season.
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cannylad68
October 9, 2014, 9:48am
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Quoted from jock dock tower
Fifteen games played so far this season, and in ten of those games we've dropped two or more points. We've won one third of our games.

At the moment we are therefore averaging 1.4 points per game (21 points from 15 games)

Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.

If we are going to have any chance at all of even securing a play off place we have to now operate at a far higher level than anything else we've ever done in the Conference.

Does anyone think it's possible?


Jock,
       based on current stats of 1.4 points per game, at what point would you think that the play offs would be out of reach?
       March/April ?

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jonnyboy82
October 9, 2014, 9:50am
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Quoted from Rodley Mariner


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?


It shows we are just as close to the bottom end as we are to to the top end...

and we are not exactly charging up to the playoffs are we ?



GTFC
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jock dock tower
October 9, 2014, 10:20am
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Quoted from cannylad68


Jock,
       based on current stats of 1.4 points per game, at what point would you think that the play offs would be out of reach?
       March/April ?



Based on GTFC maintaining the 1.4 points per game throughout the season we would expect to finish with 64 points. Halifax finished last season in the final play off place with 76 points, so if you take that as the benchmark for this season we would be 12 points behind at the end of the season. The play offs would probably be theoretically out of reach about 6 or 7 games before the end of the season - but that would be dependent on GTFC winning all their remaining games and the 6th placed club losing all theirs. Late February / early March would probably be more realistic as the points difference between a team finishing on 64 points and 76 points is near as dammit quarter of a point per game.

Might not sound a lot, but after the game against Wrexham we will have played 16 games, and on that basis we would now have 4 more points if we were going to realistically challenge for the play offs on a consistent basis. Were that the case we would now be 9th, and just 4 points behind second place. Of course, statistics can be used to prove anything as has already been mooted, but the facts are there, we have never played consistently at the level required to make the play offs since we have been in the Conference.

That said, we've never been near winning the title which is the aspiration of every Town fan at the start of each season, so we'd have had to outperformed every other Conference season to have managed that. I live in expectation though.



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