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Posted by: jock dock tower, October 8, 2014, 4:36pm
Fifteen games played so far this season, and in ten of those games we've dropped two or more points. We've won one third of our games.

At the moment we are therefore averaging 1.4 points per game (21 points from 15 games)

Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.

If we are going to have any chance at all of even securing a play off place we have to now operate at a far higher level than anything else we've ever done in the Conference.

Does anyone think it's possible?
Posted by: Mariner21, October 8, 2014, 4:52pm; Reply: 1
Nope not with this setup!! Maybe we can if we get fresh ideas and a hell of a lot of luck!!

Either way is a risk but I think it's a risk worth taking as PH is having a negative effect on the club!!! Ironic coming from me but hey this is a fact!
Posted by: TownSNAFU5, October 8, 2014, 4:57pm; Reply: 2
Jock, thanks for this, more facts to add to the debate.  Based on your stats, I make it that a very decent 30% points per gain improvement (0.42) for all the remaining league games would still leave us slightly short of your notional target for reaching a play-off place/last season's 78 points total.

This does not good as a considerable and sustained points improvement does not look possible at present.  A play-off place is the minimum acceptable end of season position.
Posted by: Richard, October 8, 2014, 6:14pm; Reply: 3
im have foreva been an optimist but im ending up in a cul de sac  at th e mo and find it harder to make excuses
Posted by: moosey_club, October 8, 2014, 6:55pm; Reply: 4
Stats can be manipulated and dont always take into account the wider picture of how the opposition teams/league is performing...... but the pattern of results is clear to see now over his 50 odd game tenure....we dont win enough games!! Simple.

Just as telling are his regular comments and nieve beliefs that "a point away from home" is a good thing. It isnt, its still two points dropped. Think big FFS.  
Posted by: grimsby pete, October 8, 2014, 7:34pm; Reply: 5
If we are to achieve 1.84 points each game from now to the end of the season,

We will need either a new manager and a new striker who will actually score goals,

Or both,

I honestly think the way Hurst sets his teams up is not to the benefit of a striker.

He is a very good defensive coach though.
Posted by: louth_in_the_south, October 8, 2014, 8:00pm; Reply: 6
With the amount of points we've dropped at home so the so called weaker teams that should be our home banker points I'd say we've got no chance . What were going to have to do is go to all our rivals for the playoffs and beat them away , and most likely at home too , to claw back the points.  
Unless we sign 2 proven strikers we've got no hope because the best we'll do against the above teams is grind out a draw . But our Paul loves that doesn't he .
Posted by: MeanwoodMariner, October 8, 2014, 8:06pm; Reply: 7
Quoted from jock dock tower
Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.


It's an excellent way to assess the situation. It would take a staggering turn of events to now reach the playoffs, so much so I don't even know what that turn of events would be. So to answer your question, no we almost certainly won't reach the playoffs.
Posted by: nightrider, October 8, 2014, 9:48pm; Reply: 8
All this talk of 'making the playoffs' after half a dozen games and 'a good point away from home' against a team in the bottom five really hasn't done the man any favours at all.
I'm all for being realistic but this man hasn't a clue. He doesn't got into games thinking were going to wallop teams. He never has and never will. Its no wonder the team struggles with a 'that'll do' mentality.
No idea how they scored 6 at Gateshead - it stinks of foul play to me! The odds must have been good for that result
Posted by: Rodley Mariner, October 8, 2014, 10:03pm; Reply: 9
We're 6 points off the play offs with 31 games left.
Posted by: brad_gtfc, October 8, 2014, 10:30pm; Reply: 10
I find it really disappointing that all season Hurst has talked about just making the play-offs and nothing about winning the league. Obviously that chance has gone now, barring a miracle. Belief needs to come from the top and I just don't see it coming from Hurst, far too negative, far too many cliches.
Posted by: moosey_club, October 8, 2014, 10:49pm; Reply: 11
Quoted from brad_gtfc
I find it really disappointing that all season Hurst has talked about just making the play-offs and nothing about winning the league. Obviously that chance has gone now, barring a miracle. Belief needs to come from the top and I just don't see it coming from Hurst, far too negative, far too many cliches.


Did he say they were 3 or 4 teams stronger than us in one of his early season interviews?? Looking like there are 10 currently  :o
Posted by: bobbyturtle, October 8, 2014, 11:31pm; Reply: 12
i think that my pint is just under half....  :-/
Posted by: grimsby pete, October 8, 2014, 11:33pm; Reply: 13
Quoted from Rodley Mariner
We're 6 points off the play offs with 31 games left.


We are 7 points off the bottom four.
Posted by: Rodley Mariner, October 9, 2014, 6:56am; Reply: 14
Quoted from grimsby pete


We are 7 points off the bottom four.


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?
Posted by: arryarryarry, October 9, 2014, 9:43am; Reply: 15
Quoted from Rodley Mariner


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?



I cannot speak for Pete but I would assume he was making the point that those who keep blathering on about how close we are to the play-off spots should also note that we are just about as close to a relegation spot and unfortunately they are not play-offs, land in one of those and that is game over.

Anyway being close to either of these places is of no relevance anyway it is where we are at the end of the season.
Posted by: cannylad68, October 9, 2014, 9:48am; Reply: 16
Quoted from jock dock tower
Fifteen games played so far this season, and in ten of those games we've dropped two or more points. We've won one third of our games.

At the moment we are therefore averaging 1.4 points per game (21 points from 15 games)

Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.

If we are going to have any chance at all of even securing a play off place we have to now operate at a far higher level than anything else we've ever done in the Conference.

Does anyone think it's possible?


Jock,
       based on current stats of 1.4 points per game, at what point would you think that the play offs would be out of reach?
       March/April ?

Posted by: jonnyboy82, October 9, 2014, 9:50am; Reply: 17
Quoted from Rodley Mariner


What relevance does that have to whether making the play-offs is possible?


It shows we are just as close to the bottom end as we are to to the top end...

and we are not exactly charging up to the playoffs are we ?

Posted by: jock dock tower, October 9, 2014, 10:20am; Reply: 18
Quoted from cannylad68


Jock,
       based on current stats of 1.4 points per game, at what point would you think that the play offs would be out of reach?
       March/April ?



Based on GTFC maintaining the 1.4 points per game throughout the season we would expect to finish with 64 points. Halifax finished last season in the final play off place with 76 points, so if you take that as the benchmark for this season we would be 12 points behind at the end of the season. The play offs would probably be theoretically out of reach about 6 or 7 games before the end of the season - but that would be dependent on GTFC winning all their remaining games and the 6th placed club losing all theirs. Late February / early March would probably be more realistic as the points difference between a team finishing on 64 points and 76 points is near as dammit quarter of a point per game.

Might not sound a lot, but after the game against Wrexham we will have played 16 games, and on that basis we would now have 4 more points if we were going to realistically challenge for the play offs on a consistent basis. Were that the case we would now be 9th, and just 4 points behind second place. Of course, statistics can be used to prove anything as has already been mooted, but the facts are there, we have never played consistently at the level required to make the play offs since we have been in the Conference.

That said, we've never been near winning the title which is the aspiration of every Town fan at the start of each season, so we'd have had to outperformed every other Conference season to have managed that. I live in expectation though.

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