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Staistically speaking it's not looking good.

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jock dock tower
October 8, 2014, 4:36pm
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Fifteen games played so far this season, and in ten of those games we've dropped two or more points. We've won one third of our games.

At the moment we are therefore averaging 1.4 points per game (21 points from 15 games)

Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.

If we are going to have any chance at all of even securing a play off place we have to now operate at a far higher level than anything else we've ever done in the Conference.

Does anyone think it's possible?


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Mariner21
October 8, 2014, 4:52pm
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Nope not with this setup!! Maybe we can if we get fresh ideas and a hell of a lot of luck!!

Either way is a risk but I think it's a risk worth taking as PH is having a negative effect on the club!!! Ironic coming from me but hey this is a fact!
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TownSNAFU5
October 8, 2014, 4:57pm
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Jock, thanks for this, more facts to add to the debate.  Based on your stats, I make it that a very decent 30% points per gain improvement (0.42) for all the remaining league games would still leave us slightly short of your notional target for reaching a play-off place/last season's 78 points total.

This does not good as a considerable and sustained points improvement does not look possible at present.  A play-off place is the minimum acceptable end of season position.
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Richard
October 8, 2014, 6:14pm

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im have foreva been an optimist but im ending up in a cul de sac  at th e mo and find it harder to make excuses


everywhere we go ,everywhere we go
its the grimsby boys makin all the noise

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moosey_club
October 8, 2014, 6:55pm
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Stats can be manipulated and dont always take into account the wider picture of how the opposition teams/league is performing...... but the pattern of results is clear to see now over his 50 odd game tenure....we dont win enough games!! Simple.

Just as telling are his regular comments and nieve beliefs that "a point away from home" is a good thing. It isnt, its still two points dropped. Think big FFS.  


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grimsby pete
October 8, 2014, 7:34pm

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If we are to achieve 1.84 points each game from now to the end of the season,

We will need either a new manager and a new striker who will actually score goals,

Or both,

I honestly think the way Hurst sets his teams up is not to the benefit of a striker.

He is a very good defensive coach though.


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louth_in_the_south
October 8, 2014, 8:00pm

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With the amount of points we've dropped at home so the so called weaker teams that should be our home banker points I'd say we've got no chance . What were going to have to do is go to all our rivals for the playoffs and beat them away , and most likely at home too , to claw back the points.  
Unless we sign 2 proven strikers we've got no hope because the best we'll do against the above teams is grind out a draw . But our Paul loves that doesn't he .


Lower F5
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MeanwoodMariner
October 8, 2014, 8:06pm

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Quoted from jock dock tower
Last season we finished with 78 points. To achieve that this season we need to get 57 points from our remaining 31 games, an average of 1.84 points per game.

An average of 1.84 points throughout a season would give a team a total of 84 points, something we've never achieved in this league.


It's an excellent way to assess the situation. It would take a staggering turn of events to now reach the playoffs, so much so I don't even know what that turn of events would be. So to answer your question, no we almost certainly won't reach the playoffs.
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nightrider
October 8, 2014, 9:48pm
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All this talk of 'making the playoffs' after half a dozen games and 'a good point away from home' against a team in the bottom five really hasn't done the man any favours at all.
I'm all for being realistic but this man hasn't a clue. He doesn't got into games thinking were going to wallop teams. He never has and never will. Its no wonder the team struggles with a 'that'll do' mentality.
No idea how they scored 6 at Gateshead - it stinks of foul play to me! The odds must have been good for that result


"Grimsby Town - Punching above our weight for 5 years"
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Rodley Mariner
October 8, 2014, 10:03pm
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We're 6 points off the play offs with 31 games left.
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