Where We Are: Some Context

So the home form has been disappointing, we have had some poor performances, we are below midway in the table, and the squad lacks quality in some areas.

But consider this. On January 1st 2022 how many of us would believe that today, January 1st 2023 we would beat an 11 man Stockport County in a League Two fixture?

A year ago even the most optimistic of us (except possibly DB) wouldn't have bet on us getting promoted. We had lost six of our previous seven league games.  Who would have thought that we would not only get into the playoffs but would  then beat beat Notts County away and Wrexham away on the way to winning promotion?

Halfway through the season we are 8 points off a play off place, with a game in hand. That is not bad going. Not bad at all.

So I think our glass is half full, rather than half empty. A couple of additions in the January window and we could be set up for a good run  to the end of the season.

But whatever happens, we have come along way from the position we were in on January 1st 2022.  

        

For me this season is a bonus. We were the seventh best team in the National League last season yet due to some incredible spirit, never say die attitude and a fair bit of skill against all the odds we got promoted.
When the chips are down I re-run the play-off games to remind us how lucky we are. Put that against an incredible tight turn round and start to the season it was inevitable that we would struggle to get players in on time. Major injuries to quality players haven't helped the cause either. Its football i guess when you get fans asking for the managers head despite whats gone on before but the often hysterical responses from some quarters are laughable when put in context. I didn't expect us to be here so I think we're doing OK. Its not always enjoyable but its better than where we was and could still be. The January window is crucial for the rest of the season so I do hope we can bring in some quality and challenge in the top half. That would be a successful return to the League for me but I guess not for everyone.

I doubt there’s anyone of us that wouldn’t have snapped your hand off to be where we are now from this time  last season.

That said we should settle for where we are now and we need the club , squad and fans to stay ambitious

I think that’s a pretty robust and thoughtful post - taking a binary, year-on-year view things are incredibly rosy in the Grimsby Town garden. No way on earth would I have predicted promotion from the National League at the first time of asking either in the summer of 2021 or around the time of last new year.

The only small pushback I would offer however is that having won promotion in the way that we won it, and the record commercial uplifts that ensued, the parameters by which we have the ability to drive success have changed in demonstrably favourable terms, and as such a recalibration of our medium-term expectations seems reasonable.

We currently have the 6th highest average attendance in the division, which you would expect to be vaguely commensurate with spending power, though I acknowledge exceptions to the rule such as Salford. Add to that additional income from a decent little cup run and the sale of McAtee to Luton, and perhaps there’s an argument to reason that our current position of 16th is a tad below par.

I say this merely to add balance, however. There is additional context; we are still healing from the double-decade gross mismanagement of our former majority shareholder, which brings with it major deficits in club-wide infrastructure and reputation, and we are indeed tracking closely with Stockport, a club treading a similar path to our own, albeit with considerably greater resources. I would think at least half of the team they named today would breach our own wage structure.

Football can be a simple game at times, but it is also incredibly nuanced. When we look at things in the round, we’re certainly on the right track and I remain confident we will emerge stronger following the January transfer window. There will inevitably be demoralising setbacks along the way, of which the Salford result was definitely one, but the overarching trajectory looks good to me.

Quoted from Poojah

I think that’s a pretty robust and thoughtful post - taking a binary, year-on-year view things are incredibly rosy in the Grimsby Town garden. No way on earth would I have predicted promotion from the National League at the first time of asking either in the summer of 2021 or around the time of last new year.

The only small pushback I would offer however is that having won promotion in the way that we won it, and the record commercial uplifts that ensued, the parameters by which we have the ability to drive success have changed in demonstrably favourable terms, and as such a recalibration of our medium-term expectations seems reasonable.

We currently have the 6th highest average attendance in the division, which you would expect to be vaguely commensurate with spending power, though I acknowledge exceptions to the rule such as Salford. Add to that additional income from a decent little cup run and the sale of McAtee to Luton, and perhaps there’s an argument to reason that our current position of 16th is a tad below par.

I say this merely to add balance, however. There is additional context; we are still healing from the double-decade gross mismanagement of our former majority shareholder, which brings with it major deficits in club-wide infrastructure and reputation, and we are indeed tracking closely with Stockport, a club treading a similar path to our own, albeit with considerably greater resources. I would think at least half of the team they named today would breach our own wage structure.

Football can be a simple game at times, but it is also incredibly nuanced. When we look at things in the round, we’re certainly on the right track and I remain confident we will emerge stronger following the January transfer window. There will inevitably be demoralising setbacks along the way, of which the Salford result was definitely one, but the overarching trajectory looks good to me.

Yep...thats what I meant to say!!

Quoted from chipsandgravy

Yep...thats what I meant to say!!

Yeah, only I meant to say it without sounding so much like a Simon Jordan monologue.

Is there any money from the McAtee sale, though? Hasn't it gone to you know who?

Quoted from Maringer

Is there any money from the McAtee sale, though? Hasn't it gone to you know who?

I was under the impression that matters with “you know who” were concluded following the sale of Mattie Pollock and sell-on fee from Dembele, but I’m happy to be corrected.

Quoted from Poojah

The only small pushback I would offer however is that having won promotion in the way that we won it, and the record commercial uplifts that ensued, the parameters by which we have the ability to drive success have changed in demonstrably favourable terms, and as such a recalibration of our medium-term expectations seems reasonable.

We currently have the 6th highest average attendance in the division, which you would expect to be vaguely commensurate with spending power, though I acknowledge exceptions to the rule such as Salford. Add to that additional income from a decent little cup run and the sale of McAtee to Luton, and perhaps there’s an argument to reason that our current position of 16th is a tad below par.

Jason said in his most recent interview that Andrew and him have both just put another 250K each in again recently (I assume this on top of the same amount they added in the summer, but don't know for sure) and he said we are still going to make a loss this year. So it sounds like the extra season ticket sales, cup runs and McAtee money hasn't gone as far as some would imagine.

Quoted from Roast Em Bobby

Jason said in his most recent interview that Andrew and him have both just put another 250K each in again recently (I assume this on top of the same amount they added in the summer, but don't know for sure) and he said we are still going to make a loss this year. So it sounds like the extra season ticket sales, cup runs and McAtee money hasn't gone as far as some would imagine.

We may not have got the cash for McAtee up front. The second installment of £500k was due yesterday but you would expect the Pollock, Grist, Dembele and McAtee money has taken care of most of the loan. Anything that was due must have been minimal so I think we can comfortably assume he's paid off now.

Quoted from Roast Em Bobby

Jason said in his most recent interview that Andrew and him have both just put another 250K each in again recently (I assume this on top of the same amount they added in the summer, but don't know for sure) and he said we are still going to make a loss this year. So it sounds like the extra season ticket sales, cup runs and McAtee money hasn't gone as far as some would imagine.

I haven’t heard the interview, but I’ve heard references to him have alluded to the above. It just seems a little bit odd. Gates, the club’s primary source of income, are up around 45% and whilst I have no doubt that player wage expectations are higher than they were two or three seasons ago, you’d imagine increases in TV and advertising money would largely offset this.

I have no doubt that the current squad and back room set-up is considerably more expensive than the equivalent Fenty’-era alternative, but it surprises me that it is apparently so much so that the club is effectively loss-making despite the financial crest of a wave we find ourselves on.

Perhaps I simply underestimate the costs of upgraded club / staff infrastructure.

Quoted from Poojah

I haven’t heard the interview, but I’ve heard references to him have alluded to the above. It just seems a little bit odd. Gates, the club’s primary source of income, are up around 45% and whilst I have no doubt that player wage expectations are higher than they were two or three seasons ago, you’d imagine increases in TV and advertising money would largely offset this.

I have no doubt that the current squad and back room set-up is considerably more expensive than the equivalent Fenty’-era alternative, but it surprises me that it is apparently so much so that the club is effectively loss-making despite the financial crest of a wave we find ourselves on.

Perhaps I simply underestimate the costs of upgraded club / staff infrastructure.

I think it’s very much the latter and I suspect that loss is being generated because of the necessary need for investment in areas most clubs invested in yonks ago.

In less than a week we could be in the fourth round of the FAC.  Another chance to be drawn against a top team and make a lot of money.  This would be the first time in the 4th round for 20 years I think).

A win next Sat would mean another re-evaluation of our season.

Just waiting for Denni to come on here or the Just Back thread to put us right!
his silence on good days is deafening

Quoted from Poojah

I haven’t heard the interview, but I’ve heard references to him have alluded to the above. It just seems a little bit odd. Gates, the club’s primary source of income, are up around 45% and whilst I have no doubt that player wage expectations are higher than they were two or three seasons ago, you’d imagine increases in TV and advertising money would largely offset this.

I have no doubt that the current squad and back room set-up is considerably more expensive than the equivalent Fenty’-era alternative, but it surprises me that it is apparently so much so that the club is effectively loss-making despite the financial crest of a wave we find ourselves on.

Perhaps I simply underestimate the costs of upgraded club / staff infrastructure.

Probably the latter, plus we also re-signed or signed something like 13 players (all I'm assuming on more than what we were paying many of the same players last year), and we paid £100K for Hunt, and maybe something for Green as well?

First and foremost after a disastrous relegation we’re back in the EFL it would have been hell trying to get out this time. Also we effectively need 20 points from the 69 available to stay here.

I don’t know what the details are but we have new owners who know how to organise an organisation and understand that this club is not about one individual.

We are building in the background so we have experience & expertise working in areas where it’s required.

Once JSF is dealt with I’m 100% confident that AP & JS will attract other investors who will help us take the next steps on the pitch.

In terms of on the pitch despite what the the anti anyone from Yorkshire mafia might think we have a manager who knows what he’s doing and has many more tools to do it than he’s done before.

The squad is ok but will need strengthening including at least 1 credible striker but the core for the first time in ages will start next season with us and some beyond that.

We won’t get promoted this season but we’re in a stronger position now than I think we’ve been in over a decade.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

We may not have got the cash for McAtee up front. The second installment of £500k was due yesterday but you would expect the Pollock, Grist, Dembele and McAtee money has taken care of most of the loan. Anything that was due must have been minimal so I think we can comfortably assume he's paid off now.

I’m pretty sure Jason said that Fenty has been paid off in full early. The transfer fees plus the first scheduled payment of 500k paid off the vast majority of the 1.5m loans and so Jason paid the balance off in the summer I believe.

Quoted from RonMariner

I’m pretty sure Jason said that Fenty has been paid off in full early. The transfer fees plus the first scheduled payment of 500k paid off the vast majority of the 1.5m loans and so Jason paid the balance off in the summer I believe.

Yes, Jason said in the summer that they'd decided to clear the historical debt early. The confirmation statement filed in November, however, showed no new share issue since March 2021. So I can only assume they replaced it with another loan? I'm no accountant, so that's one to ask at the fans forum perhaps.

Quoted from Poojah

I haven’t heard the interview, but I’ve heard references to him have alluded to the above. It just seems a little bit odd. Gates, the club’s primary source of income, are up around 45%

Some rough figures: total attendances are up around 15%, with home support up around 800 supporters per game. This increase is tempered by the vast majority paying £14/£15 per game. We had around 2000 walk ups last year paying full price, this year we average about 400. Last season we had 62% of supporters paying 72% of the entrance fee (season ticket holders) and 38% paying full price (walk ups). This year we have 92% paying 72% of the entrance fee with only 8% paying full price. Away support at Blundell Park has increased by about 130 on average or around 40%

Edit: my stats are shite. With ST no-shows, walk ups are probably closer to 1000 on average per game. So sold seats might be closer to 25% up, not 15%

Quoted from immariner

Some rough figures: total attendances are up around 15%, with home support up around 800 supporters per game. This increase is tempered by the vast majority paying £14/£15 per game. We had around 2000 walk ups last year paying full price, this year we average about 400. Last season we had 62% of supporters paying 72% of the entrance fee (season ticket holders) and 38% paying full price (walk ups). This year we have 92% paying 72% of the entrance fee with only 8% paying full price. Away support at Blundell Park has increased by about 130 on average or around 40%

Am I right to assume what you are saying is that although the sale of ST's increased the revenue didn't? That the reality of your estimation is that the attendance income is more or less the same as last year despite the increase in attendance.

If you just look at the league table and cup progressions you have to be satisfied... points wise we're closer to the play offs than the relegation spot. We're in round 3 of the FA Cup with a winnable home tie. We did OK in the cup that shall not be named..
Putting things into perspective it's actually been an OK season so far. I think the frustration lies with the lack of a striker and the silly goals we've conceded of late.

Quoted from DB

Am I right to assume what you are saying is that although the sale of ST's increased the revenue didn't? That the reality of your estimation is that the attendance income is more or less the same as last year despite the increase in attendance.

Based on my original stats, probably about the same revenue. Now that i've realised the flaw in my stats (hadn't factored in ST no-shows not being included in the official attendance), then gate receipts are possibly about 10-15% up, but that is based on very rough mental maths. Either way, with the increased wages for the players that were retained/signed, any fairly modest increase in ticket revenue will have been quickly swallowed up I suspect

Quoted from immariner

Some rough figures: total attendances are up around 15%, with home support up around 800 supporters per game. This increase is tempered by the vast majority paying £14/£15 per game. We had around 2000 walk ups last year paying full price, this year we average about 400. Last season we had 62% of supporters paying 72% of the entrance fee (season ticket holders) and 38% paying full price (walk ups). This year we have 92% paying 72% of the entrance fee with only 8% paying full price. Away support at Blundell Park has increased by about 130 on average or around 40%

Edit: my stats are shite. With ST no-shows, walk ups are probably closer to 1000 on average per game. So sold seats might be closer to 25% up, not 15%

Sorry, I should have been slightly clearer. Total gates are up around 45% versus our previous, fan attended season in League Two. Roughly 6,600 versus 4,600.

If we assume that the average value per extra ticket per game is £14 (factoring in concessions and STs) it’s about £650k over the course of the league season.

I should think that our overall income, with additional sales of matchday food and drink, club merchandise, advertising revenue, TV money, cup money, transfer fees etc we must be up close to £1.5m on our last completed League Two season, when we reported total revenues of £3.6m, so again close to 40% (possibly over when factoring in director cash injections).

That’s a huge increase in turnover, even accounting for the portion which will have been eaten up by hyper-inflation and servicing those extra matchday income streams.

My underlining point was that, given we are making steady rather than stellar progress on the pitch (compared to previous, pre-Covid League Two campaigns), the requirement of director investment to enable us to break even was surprising. However, as others have suggested, perhaps that’s merely the effect of redressing 20 years of virtual zero investment.

If that is the case, it may be good reason to believe that our relative spending power in terms of the first-team may well increase in seasons to come, as we level-up in that regard. I’ve always considered this season a transitional one, and in that regard we’re doing ok. I think the gains we’re making in terms of infrastructure, talent and club reputation will be profoundly felt next season.

Quoted from Poojah

Sorry, I should have been slightly clearer. Total gates are up around 45% versus our previous, fan attended season in League Two. Roughly 6,600 versus 4,600.

If we assume that the average value per extra ticket per game is £14 (factoring in concessions and STs) it’s about £650k over the course of the league season.

I should think that our overall income, with additional sales of matchday food and drink, club merchandise, advertising revenue, TV money, cup money, transfer fees etc we must be up close to £1.5m on our last completed League Two season, when we reported total revenues of £3.6m, so again close to 40% (possibly over when factoring in director cash injections).

That’s a huge increase in turnover, even accounting for the portion which will have been eaten up by hyper-inflation and servicing those extra matchday income streams.

My underlining point was that, given we are making steady rather than stellar progress on the pitch (compared to previous, pre-Covid League Two campaigns), the requirement of director investment to enable us to break even was surprising. However, as others have suggested, perhaps that’s merely the effect of redressing 20 years of virtual zero investment.

If that is the case, it may be good reason to believe that our relative spending power in terms of the first-team may well increase in seasons to come, as we level-up in that regard. I’ve always considered this season a transitional one, and in that regard we’re doing ok. I think the gains we’re making in terms of infrastructure, talent and club reputation will be profoundly felt next season.

Whichever way you look at it the club is on it's way up, compared to this time last year.

Quoted from lukeo

If you just look at the league table and cup progressions you have to be satisfied... points wise we're closer to the play offs than the relegation spot. We're in round 3 of the FA Cup with a winnable home tie. We did OK in the cup that shall not be named..
Putting things into perspective it's actually been an OK season so far. I think the frustration lies with the lack of a striker and the silly goals we've conceded of late.

Genuinely think the narrative would be completely different if we'd beaten Harrogate and Hartlepool, as we absolutely should have. We'd be 2 points off the playoffs with a game in hand there. The idea that we'd be 16th in L2 with a 3rd Round FA Cup draw on the horizon would have had most of us wet our knickers this time last year. I saw on Twitter that someone had put a table of the NL on NYD last year up and we were 10th and 6 points off the playoffs. It really has been a remarkable year.

Quoted from Mariner_09

Genuinely think the narrative would be completely different if we'd beaten Harrogate and Hartlepool, as we absolutely should have. We'd be 2 points off the playoffs with a game in hand there. The idea that we'd be 16th in L2 with a 3rd Round FA Cup draw on the horizon would have had most of us wet our knickers this time last year. I saw on Twitter that someone had put a table of the NL on NYD last year up and we were 10th and 6 points off the playoffs. It really has been a remarkable year.

This!

We’re making steady, not rapid progress and that’s fine with me. Naturally, of late, some results have been poor but we have to look at the whole club and see where we’ve come from.

We had three of the most bonkers results in the space of a fortnight last season, a fortnight not a single town fan expected or even predicted.

We had a great start this year and barring some iffy results, the team and club is moving forward. With significant investment having to be made by the owners it again highlights just how little investment, and I mean time, effort, ideas as well as monetary, was made over the previous 20 years…

Quoted from aldi_01

We’re making steady, not rapid progress and that’s fine with me. Naturally, of late, some results have been poor but we have to look at the whole club and see where we’ve come from.

We had three of the most bonkers results in the space of a fortnight last season, a fortnight not a single town fan expected or even predicted.

We had a great start this year and barring some iffy results, the team and club is moving forward. With significant investment having to be made by the owners it again highlights just how little investment, and I mean time, effort, ideas as well as monetary, was made over the previous 20 years…

Agree. Plus the owners know what they’re doing. They’re articulate, skilled, pragmatic, collaborative.
The last custodian was the opposite of all those.

A consolidation season.... with a whole load of badly needed infrastructure being done, or planned, to make next season a more professional outlook.

One pariah removed, some dead wood replaced, a couple of long servers deciding now is safe to move on or retire, movement towards more professional training facilities, some needed ground and facility improvements long overdue.

All round better than the start of last season.

Do the fans want more ? Of course !!

But is it not better to be patient, and let a professional backroom team be in place, and make improvements step by step, ones which will stay, not evaporate?