The Politics Thread .

Quoted from barralad

Well there you go Pete. I have this ridiculous habit of taking notice of things that people who've worked in certain industries etc all of their lives rather than what people on a football message board say. I'll google the Rover thing and let you know...

Yes and for every so called expert that says we are doomed there will be one saying we will do good.

Quoted from grimsby pete

The main objective of all car makers is to make a profit,

All the cars that we buy every years makes millions for them,

So when Brexit arrives will they price themselves out of business or will they take a hit, ?

A smaller profit is better than no profit or no sale at all,

I worked as a new car salesman so I know how much profit is in a new car,

Believe me its a lot,  there is plenty of wiggle room.

Is that not exactly what I and others have said previously? The EU car manufacturers will still sell their cars here but it'll either eat in to their profit margins or the consumer will take a hit. And I bet I know who'll be the one to lose out. But then you started going on about no deal meaning no trade whatsoever and how we were all going to be driving Chinese cars within the next years after they build a factory in the UK  .

No deal will not mean we stop trading completely for the pure reason that we import about 30% of our food from the EU so if we stopped trading over night there would be bedlam; a shortage of food and the price will skyrocket leading to an increase in inflation.

Quoted from grimsby pete

Yes and for every so called expert that says we are doomed there will be one saying we will do good.

Except that's just not true.

Quoted from grimsby pete

What the hell has that got to do with anything, ?

The next thing you will be telling me is the Welsh shag sheep.

I believe the point Barra was making, and feel free to correct me Barra, is that you said there were millions and millions of people in India and China and they all want trade deals with us. And whilst you are correct in saying that there are very large populations in this area, how much need exactly do you think the vast majority of them will have for our exports?

Quoted from mariner91

I believe the point Barra was making, and feel free to correct me Barra, is that you said there were millions and millions of people in India and China and they all want trade deals with us. And whilst you are correct in saying that there are very large populations in this area, how much need exactly do you think the vast majority of them will have for our exports?

What you remainers keep saying is we are all doomed,

Have a little confidence in your fellow man,

Do not forget we buy a lot more than we sell to the EU so they should be concerned where we will buy our goods from if we do not buy them from the EU.

My comment about no deal has always been if we do not have a deal how can we trade with them?

You say that they will put a tariff on any goods , well isn't that a deal we buy there goods for a higher price so that a deal,

I was talking about No Deal which means we will not trade with them.  understand now ?

We are going round in circles here so I suggest we adjourn until Brexit is here and we have new deals with whoever in place and then see who was right,

Finally everybody are interested if you want to buy their goods whatever country they live in,

We only have to find less than half of that amount  to buy our goods.

Always look on the bright side of life young man or you will worry yourself into an early grave.

Patrick Minford is the only noted economist I've seen who has claimed Brexit will be good for our economy and even he admits that we take a hit in the shorter term (i.e. for a decade or more). Not to mention the fact that his work has been described as "doubly misleading" because of some of the ridiculous assumptions therein:

http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....tariff-a7691271.html

His work also biazrrely assumes that we'll suddenly do more trade with countries further away, even though all evidence shows that you trade more with your nearest neighbours than anywhere else. Which is pretty obvious, when you think about it.

That's one economics professor who thinks Brexit will be a benefit, Pete. You'll struggle to find any other economists who agree with him.

Quoted from Maringer

Patrick Minford is the only noted economist I've seen who has claimed Brexit will be good for our economy and even he admits that we take a hit in the shorter term (i.e. for a decade or more). Not to mention the fact that his work has been described as "doubly misleading" because of some of the ridiculous assumptions therein:

http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....tariff-a7691271.html

His work also biazrrely assumes that we'll suddenly do more trade with countries further away, even though all evidence shows that you trade more with your nearest neighbours than anywhere else. Which is pretty obvious, when you think about it.

That's one economics professor who thinks Brexit will be a benefit, Pete. You'll struggle to find any other economists who agree with him.

I did say lets adjourn until we know how it turns out but I will reply to your last post on the subject for now at least,


Baralad said he took note of people involved in industry not someone on a message board,

That was what I was replying to, that for every one that says we will be worse off you will find another one saying we will be good,

Until its in place neither you nor me knows, lets just wait and see,

Then afterwards I will be able to tell you,

I told you we would be alright  

BTW  Nobody is talking about Brexit around here the only place I can have a chat about it is on here.

Quoted from grimsby pete

What you remainers keep saying is we are all doomed,

Have a little confidence in your fellow man,

Do not forget we buy a lot more than we sell to the EU so they should be concerned where we will buy our goods from if we do not buy them from the EU.

My comment about no deal has always been if we do not have a deal how can we trade with them?

You say that they will put a tariff on any goods , well isn't that a deal we buy there goods for a higher price so that a deal,

I was talking about No Deal which means we will not trade with them.  understand now ?

We are going round in circles here so I suggest we adjourn until Brexit is here and we have new deals with whoever in place and then see who was right,

Finally everybody are interested if you want to buy their goods whatever country they live in,

We only have to find less than half of that amount  to buy our goods.

Always look on the bright side of life young man or you will worry yourself into an early grave.

We may buy more total from them but in terms of percentages, a much greater percentage of our exports go to the EU than their exports come here.

No deal would not mean we don't trade with them at all, I have no idea why you think this. We'd still be part of the WTO and the EU would still be as well. Like I've already said, if we stopped trading with them completely we'd lose 30% of our food over night. Understand now? I agree that it's probably best we stop with this debate as it seems you're getting easily confused and have little understanding of what the debate is actually about.

As a parting note, here is what will likely happen if absolutely no deal is made:

"At the moment the UK is part of the EU's single market, meaning goods and services are traded across the Channel without barriers or paperwork.
This arrangement will come to an end in March 2019 when the two year Article 50 window closes.

If the UK doesn't fix a new trade agreement with the EU, trade would fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the government says.
Under WTO rules, which were set up to facilitate global trade, a country must give the same degree of market access to all WTO members as it gives to its "most favoured nation". In other words there can be no special favours in the absence of a proper trade deal.

The UK trades with lots of countries under WTO rules. But the terms are far less favourable than trading within the single market, which is almost frictionless. The sudden imposition of WTO rules is likely to mean tariffs and customs checks, leading to increased financial and bureaucratic costs for British firms buying and selling goods from abroad."

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39294904

Quoted from grimsby pete

Baralad said he took note of people involved in industry not someone on a message board,

That was what I was replying to, that for every one that says we will be worse off you will find another one saying we will be good,

And Maringer pointed out that there is only one noted economics "expert" that believes Brexit will be positive.

Quoted from Grim74

Distances don't mean anything now, Its not the 1800s Maringer or haven't you remoaniacs noticed?

We will still be trading with Europe!  America is one of 37 countries wanting FTAs with us the others include the world's 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th & 13th largest economies.

Well this is what we are exporting.... Machinery including computers, Vehicles, Pharmaceuticals,Gems, precious metals Electrical machinery, Mineral fuels including oil,Aircraft, spacecraft,Optical, technical, medical apparatus, Plastics, plastic articles Organic chemicals etc, $54.7B

As for the banks nothing but classic scaremongering London is consistently one of the leading financial centres in the world.

'Remoniac'? Your posts are becoming more and more absurd.

We aren't exporting anything in the way of computers, believe me. We don't manufacture any of the processors, memory, storage or other hardware used in computers (mostly manufactured in the far east these days), so to imagine we export large quantities of computers is preposterous! There's a good reason why most of the major PC (and smartphone) manufacturers get all their stuff built in China/Taiwan/South Korea/Japan. It's the region where most of the hardware in them is manufactured. Oh, not to forget the monitors which are all produced in these countries as well. Still, what do those crazy South Koreans know, eh? After all, I seem to think that around 70% of their population are educated to degree level.

As for the rest of the list, gems? Not sourced here, that's for sure. Oil? Production declining massively and the oil industry actually cost us money last year from tax rebates:

https://www.theguardian.com/bu.....axpayer-396m-in-2016

Just wait for more to come as the oil companies claim rebates for their decommissioning costs in the future.

The fact is that we do 5 times as much business with Europe as the rest of the world and, even is this ratio changes in a minor way after Brexit, our geographical location means that it isn't going to change much. Brexiteers seem to somehow imagine that we'll suddely find all sorts of new markets for our limited amount of stuff whereas, in actuality, everything will stay pretty much the same but with more difficulty in dealing with our main trading partners in Europe.

As for the banks, you do realise that one of the major draws of our banking sector was its access to the EU? It was handy for the American financial sector to base lots of their assets over here with access to the EU. Not going to be the case in a couple of years which is why various European cities are going to eat our lunch when it comes to the financial sector.