League Two xg Table 22/23

Quoted from BlackandWhiteBarmy2

It is of absolutely no value at all. We finished where we finished. It wouldn't matter if we finished top of the 'adjusted' table, the fact is we finished 11th. It is pointless issuing a table after the fact based on things that were expected to happen but didn't.

Have to disagree on having no value. The impact of the statistic come the end of the season in real terms is zero, as has been pointed out the league table will be the league table based on the actual result of the game.

The xG stat gives us an indicator of how many goals we ‘should’ have expected to score. Feel free to debate how that is calculated all you like, I have zero idea and will simply trust the brains that came up with it.

We can all see from the stands that we haven’t had a striker in the typical mould that we can rely on to score 15-20 goals a season. Yet Leyton Orient proved you don’t need that to win a league. You need goals from all over. So whilst we’re all being archaic about the need for one player who can score 20 goals, the professional football folk will be using statistics like these to identify which of the players in certain positions are missing these chances that we ‘should’ be scoring.

If we find that between one centre midfielder and two wingers they’re collectively guilty of missing good chances to the tune of 15 goals then we find upgrades who do score those chances and hey presto we’re 15 goals and 5/6 positions better off in the league.

Some will argue that the stats tell us what we already see/know, but I bet few would believe we’ve had more shots at home than everyone bar Northampton. There will always be an objective view of our performances that tell us through experience and instinct what is/isn’t working but I’m very much of the belief that within some statistics you can find a different picture to the one your eye paints.

Quoted from gtfc_chris

Have to disagree on having no value. The impact of the statistic come the end of the season in real terms is zero, as has been pointed out the league table will be the league table based on the actual result of the game.

The xG stat gives us an indicator of how many goals we ‘should’ have expected to score. Feel free to debate how that is calculated all you like, I have zero idea and will simply trust the brains that came up with it.

We can all see from the stands that we haven’t had a striker in the typical mould that we can rely on to score 15-20 goals a season. Yet Leyton Orient proved you don’t need that to win a league. You need goals from all over. So whilst we’re all being archaic about the need for one player who can score 20 goals, the professional football folk will be using statistics like these to identify which of the players in certain positions are missing these chances that we ‘should’ be scoring.

If we find that between one centre midfielder and two wingers they’re collectively guilty of missing good chances to the tune of 15 goals then we find upgrades who do score those chances and hey presto we’re 15 goals and 5/6 positions better off in the league.

Some will argue that the stats tell us what we already see/know, but I bet few would believe we’ve had more shots at home than everyone bar Northampton. There will always be an objective view of our performances that tell us through experience and instinct what is/isn’t working but I’m very much of the belief that within some statistics you can find a different picture to the one your eye paints.

I don’t think we need in depth analysis to tell us who’s been missing these sitters and where we need to upgrade , most of us that have watched the games all season could tell you that

Quoted from grimps

I don’t think we need in depth analysis to tell us who’s been missing these sitters and where we need to upgrade , most of us that have watched the games all season could tell you that

I suppose it’s hard to argue with that. Perhaps the Club and all others who are spending vast sums on data led approaches should reconsider that tact and simply turn to forums where the fans who have been watching all season could simply tell you who to upgrade.

Out of interest, and using stats but away from the xG one, if we had a player who from the stands appeared useless and was widely criticised across the fan base, but we statistically won more ppg with him in the side than not would you go with what you see or what statistically wins us more points?

Quoted from gtfc_chris

I suppose it’s hard to argue with that. Perhaps the Club and all others who are spending vast sums on data led approaches should reconsider that tact and simply turn to forums where the fans who have been watching all season could simply tell you who to upgrade.

Out of interest, and using stats but away from the xG one, if we had a player who from the stands appeared useless and was widely criticised across the fan base, but we statistically won more ppg with him in the side than not would you go with what you see or what statistically wins us more points?

There’s always a lot more to a player than how many goals he scores.
Some players drag defenders away leaving his partner in space or with more time etc which would be hard for any statistician to pick up on.
Some strikers can hold the ball up for long periods of the game relieving pressure on the rest of the team.
Some stickers score 25 a season and do nothing else.

A good manger or scout should be able to notice these skills or talents and work out if it can fit in the team and style of play that he’s looking to have

Quoted from gtfc_chris

I suppose it’s hard to argue with that. Perhaps the Club and all others who are spending vast sums on data led approaches should reconsider that tact and simply turn to forums where the fans who have been watching all season could simply tell you who to upgrade.

Out of interest, and using stats but away from the xG one, if we had a player who from the stands appeared useless and was widely criticised across the fan base, but we statistically won more ppg with him in the side than not would you go with what you see or what statistically wins us more points?

Like all statistics that last point is open to wide interpretation.

Say I was in the side for 10 games; the players raise their game because they know I'm useless,  and we win all 10 games. Would you keep me in?

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

Like all statistics that last point is open to wide interpretation.

Say I was in the side for 10 games; the players raise their game because they know I'm useless,  and we win all 10 games. Would you keep me in?

Are you Weghorst?

I think we need to get some T-shirts knocked up, '5th place for xG 22/23'

Quoted from grimps

There’s always a lot more to a player than how many goals he scores.
Some players drag defenders away leaving his partner in space or with more time etc which would be hard for any statistician to pick up on.
Some strikers can hold the ball up for long periods of the game relieving pressure on the rest of the team.
Some stickers score 25 a season and do nothing else.

A good manger or scout should be able to notice these skills or talents and work out if it can fit in the team and style of play that he’s looking to have

There's no doubting players have different attributes and bring different qualities to the team performance, no arguments against from me. Managers, scouts and fans will all be able to see the face value of a player and see over time what their main qualities appear to be and more so for us as fans we develop affection for players who display qualities we each admire, again not going to dispute that. The game has existed for over 100 years without statistics guiding it and relying solely on the feel and view of humans so I get where people may have a view that statistics aren't required and that the human eye is sufficient enough to build a good squad.

I don't think anyone could dispute however the fine margins that exist in the leagues in terms of who is likely to be competitive. Every year the leagues become tighter and tighter and more clubs consider themselves as having a right or reasonable ambition to compete at the top end of the league.  To try and get on the right side of those margins teams have recognised in recent years that statistics can paint pictures of what is happening that might not be blatantly obvious to the eye and use them to rectify the problem area.

Lets continue with this xG scenario. It tells us what we 'should' have expected to score. From the stands we see we've missed some good chances and we need better finishers. Easy. Dig deeper into that Xg stat and it will likely tell us where those chances have come from. This will tell us the key trait that we require from a striker. You referenced they all have different attributes and I agree. Some might show great anticipation to get across defenders and apply a first time finish inside the 6-yard box. Another might have great composure and calmness around the penalty spot area to find a gap to finish, another might be prolific in 1v1s and let's add another who has great heading ability in the box.

If PH signs a striker who has historically scored 15+ a season but mostly from inside the 6-yard box, but our xGs are coming from crosses in the air, then he isn't going to be effective. Much as we watch games and can see we need a goalscorer I highly doubt anyone is sat there with notepad and pen analysing the nature of our missed chances, nor is anyone watching games back over 90 minutes to determine this, if you do then I'd say you're in the statistics camp.

The example above is specific to scoring goals and the main quality of the striker that will complement how we play. Let's take it backwards a little bit and be more broad. We had a period where we struggled this season and people were getting twitchy about relegation. What was the problem? Players? System? Manager? If every fan on this forum gave their view it would not be universal. Take the human eye again and we all interpret what we see differently, so how do you determine where fact lies and opinion stops? For fans saying the system was wrong, then xG might suggest otherwise, telling us we were creating the chances and not scoring them. We might see that from the stands but we still use it as a stick to beat whoever we want round the head with to suit our opinion against what the facts are. I found home games to be very nightmarish for the most part and if the statistic that we had more shots at home than everyone except Northampton is true then I wouldn't have believed it without someone pointing it out. Does the lack of wins and PHs pragmatic approach cloud the fact that actually we create a lot and are good at home save the finish?

Stats can be exploited to suit most arguments, I haven't done any research or used anything concrete to 'prove' my viewpoint, but I bet if I scratched a little I could. But I'd also suggest you could find a stat that 'proved against' my argument on the same topic. This debate could go on forever just on that basis alone. My critique of the particular stat that started the thread would be how an xG is decided, but as I said before I'll simply trust that someone much cleverer than I has come up with some formula/algorithm that depicts it as close as possible.

Either way, my view in support of the stat as a tool is that it can make much clearer the fine detail we don't automatically record watching the game live. That information can be used to determine strikers that fit the profile we need based on the nature of chances we're missing rather than changing the play book if it's proven to work shy of the final finish. If that fine detail sees us bring in a totally unknown striker not utilised the right way in his existing team who ends up scoring 20 goals, getting us promoted and we sell him on for 750k then I'd suggest the stat has been very much worth it.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

Like all statistics that last point is open to wide interpretation.

Say I was in the side for 10 games; the players raise their game because they know I'm useless,  and we win all 10 games. Would you keep me in?

Direct answer = Yes. Why would anyone not?

I also don't dispute at all that stats can be interpreted differently.... just like the human eye.

For example, I could argue that we've just won 10 games because the good players are raising their game to accommodate a useless player, so keep the useless player in because it's working and forgive the players for not working as hard in the games previous.

I could also argue that I've got 10 players who have highlighted they haven't been working as hard as they could because the previous 11th man was half decent so they got lazy and I as manager would not be happy with that.

I think the difference between interpreting statistics is that amongst us as fans we'll argue them to prove our own views. PH and all his staff won't be using them for that purpose, they will be scrutinising what it means to performance, player targeting and all round improvement to our results. They will be working in tandem to identify players who we can attract within our budget that might not be quite so coveted as the obvious talent that all the top end competing teams will be attempting to sign.

Quoted from gtfc_chris

Direct answer = Yes. Why would anyone not?

I also don't dispute at all that stats can be interpreted differently.... just like the human eye.

For example, I could argue that we've just won 10 games because the good players are raising their game to accommodate a useless player, so keep the useless player in because it's working and forgive the players for not working as hard in the games previous.

I could also argue that I've got 10 players who have highlighted they haven't been working as hard as they could because the previous 11th man was half decent so they got lazy and I as manager would not be happy with that.

I think the difference between interpreting statistics is that amongst us as fans we'll argue them to prove our own views. PH and all his staff won't be using them for that purpose, they will be scrutinising what it means to performance, player targeting and all round improvement to our results. They will be working in tandem to identify players who we can attract within our budget that might not be quite so coveted as the obvious talent that all the top end competing teams will be attempting to sign.

I'm cleaning my boots as we speak.