Third round draw

Quoted from DB

Yawn!

You mean unlike watching England

Quoted from HerveJosse

Good start.
Then there is the 60 years together in the League cup then muting lying them together I am still guessing 1in 20 or less overall

Nope - we've not been in the same draw as Man U all that often in the League Cup. Including those brings the overall probability of not having been drawn against them down to 11.1% - 1 in 9.

So overall it's more likely than not that we would have been drawn against Man U in a cup competition at some point in the last 92 years... but the fact that we haven't been isn't outrageously unlikely.

Quoted from mike502

Nope - we've not been in the same draw as Man U all that often in the League Cup. Including those brings the overall probability of not having been drawn against them down to 11.1% - 1 in 9.

So overall it's more likely than not that we would have been drawn against Man U in a cup competition at some point in the last 92 years... but the fact that we haven't been isn't outrageously unlikely.

Great work but 1 in 9 is pretty unlikely to me . What does it take to make a mathematician regard something as unlikely?

Quoted from HerveJosse

Great work but 1 in 9 is pretty unlikely to me . What does it take to make a mathematician regard something as unlikely?

Dunno, I'm not a mathematician! I guess my point was that a 1 in 9 chance coming up isn't one that would make you gasp with amazement. Suppose you're playing a game and need to roll exactly 9 with two dice. There's a 1 in 9 chance you'll do so. Obviously it's more likely that you won't roll 9, but you wouldn't be astounded if you did!

In years gone by the draw was supposedly fixed because the Premier League teams were separated. Now it's "fixed" because they were paired more than average. Maybe an alternative explanation to a giant conspiracy involving the state broadcaster, the FA, the legends of the game who to a man say how much the FA Cup means to them, and multiple behind-the-scenes technicians, is that it is just the way the cards fell.

Quoted from mike502

Dunno, I'm not a mathematician! I guess my point was that a 1 in 9 chance coming up isn't one that would make you gasp with amazement. Suppose you're playing a game and need to roll exactly 9 with two dice. There's a 1 in 9 chance you'll do so. Obviously it's more likely that you won't roll 9, but you wouldn't be astounded if you did!

Astounded and unlikely are two very different adjectives.

Quoted from GrimRob

In years gone by the draw was supposedly fixed because the Premier League teams were separated. Now it's "fixed" because they were paired more than average. Maybe an alternative explanation to a giant conspiracy involving the state broadcaster, the FA, the legends of the game who to a man say how much the FA Cup means to them, and multiple behind-the-scenes technicians, is that it is just the way the cards fell.

Sorry, but I was awarded the 2018 Fields Medal for my work on the Fisher–Tippett–Gnedenko theorem and the FA Cup draw is, indisputably, fixed.

I’m no Mathematical genius either Mike , but I’m sure the odds of rolling 9 with  2 dice isn’t 1 in 9 .
Obviously the lowest score possible would be 2 and the maximum 12 , wouldn’t this give you an 11/1 chance ?

Quoted from Captaincod

I’m no Mathematical genius either Mike , but I’m sure the odds of rolling 9 with  2 dice isn’t 1 in 9 .
Obviously the lowest score possible would be 2 and the maximum 12 , wouldn’t this give you an 11/1 chance ?

No! Because there are multiple ways of rolling some numbers and only 1 way of rolling the outliers like 2 and 12. 6 for instance can be 5+1, 4+2 or 3+3. There are 36 combinations of rolling 2 dice you need to give them equal weight.

9 can be 6/3, 3/6, 4/5 or 5/4, so there are 4 ways out of 36, i.e. 1 in 9

Quoted from mike502

Dunno, I'm not a mathematician! I guess my point was that a 1 in 9 chance coming up isn't one that would make you gasp with amazement. Suppose you're playing a game and need to roll exactly 9 with two dice. There's a 1 in 9 chance you'll do so. Obviously it's more likely that you won't roll 9, but you wouldn't be astounded if you did!

Don't think the 1 in 9 with the dice is correct.  With 2 dice you can throw  2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12   ie. 1 in 11  Common sense beats maths. said  Isaac Newton - the apple falls because it is too heavy for the stalk