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Third round draw

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fishcake63
November 29, 2022, 6:03pm
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Of course it not bloody fixed to think otherwise is just plain silly , my mate told me before draw wrexham will get prem club at home for tv but they didn't
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golfer
November 29, 2022, 6:16pm
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How many times have we been in the third round in the last 20 years
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Les Brechin
November 29, 2022, 6:24pm

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Quoted from golfer
How many times have we been in the third round in the last 20 years



I can remember twice.

2014, lost to Huddersfield 3rd round
2019 lost to Crystal Palace 3rd round


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The Yard Dog
November 29, 2022, 6:25pm
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Its a good draw, we are home, a winable game, plus if we drawn a top Premiership team it may have been a distraction to the league games leading upto the 3rd match. They are six leagues until the third round match, only 2 between 3rd and 4th round matches.
Now we can get on with league games and deal with the FA cup the week its due to be played.

No pressure on us to win as we are the lower oppenent, so its a free hit with a £105K bonus if we win, with the chance of drawing a top side in the 4th round and maybe some TV revenue to top it off.
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HerveJosse
November 29, 2022, 6:59pm
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When one of the mathematicians gets bored with the England Wales game could they please calculate the odds of us not having drawn Man Utd in the FA or League cup since we last did in 1931 given all  the times we have been in the various draws together since then.I think yiu will it’s very large odds
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mike502
November 29, 2022, 7:10pm
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Quoted from HerveJosse
When one of the mathematicians gets bored with the England Wales game could they please calculate the odds of us not having drawn Man Utd in the FA or League cup since we last did in 1931 given all  the times we have been in the various draws together since then.I think yiu will it’s very large odds


Interesting question - the calculation is easy but gathering the data is a pain. Might have a look at half time!
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golfer
November 29, 2022, 7:36pm
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16428 / 1       ignoring the war years
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mike502
November 29, 2022, 8:05pm
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Quoted from mike502


Interesting question - the calculation is easy but gathering the data is a pain. Might have a look at half time!


OK, just for the FA cup, since 1931-2 (86 seasons)
GTFC and MUFC have both been in the 3rd round 50 times
both in the 4th round 13 times
both in the 5th round 3 times

In the 3rd round, there's a 62/63 chance we won't play Man U
In the 4th round it's 30/31, and in the 5th round it's 14/15.

Multiplying those all together, the chance that none of those draws have paired us is actually 23.8%.  Higher than I expected!
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DB
November 29, 2022, 8:06pm
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Yawn!


You can please some of the forumites some of the time but not all the forumites all of the time
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HerveJosse
November 29, 2022, 8:11pm
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Quoted from mike502


OK, just for the FA cup, since 1931-2 (86 seasons)
GTFC and MUFC have both been in the 3rd round 50 times
both in the 4th round 13 times
both in the 5th round 3 times

In the 3rd round, there's a 62/63 chance we won't play Man U
In the 4th round it's 30/31, and in the 5th round it's 14/
Multiplying those all together, the chance that none of those draws have paired us is actually 23.8%.  Higher than I expected!



Good start.
Then there is the 60 years together in the League cup then muting lying them together I am still guessing 1in 20 or less overall
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